[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy

[JayJuanGee]

Would you rather be a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is ONLY $1k per BTC, but he ONLY has 2 BTC? or a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is $10k per BTC but he has 10 or more BTC?

One of the things that seems to make bitcoin special is that it is an asset that is amongst the best, if not the best, asset that is widely available to the whole world's population, so a goal of accumulating as many as you can within your own means of gathering seems to be more important than figuring out your average cost per BTC...

This is very important. I agree 100%.

The average cost simple doesn't matter. It is an imaginary number in our heads, which has zero consequences.

How much BTC you have (or any other asset) is much more important than how much you paid for it.

If you have 10 BTC now and I have 10 BTC now too, it doesn't make any different if my average price is lower or higher than yours. They are worth the same.

We should never try to guide our decisions based in average prices imo.

In regards to accumulating BTC, from my perspective, there is a really BIG shortage in BTC holders, and the reason for that is because they are spending too much time waiting and not enough time acting, so I cannot see any tool to be helpful in terms of helping guys to engage in more strategizing than they already tend to do in their BTC accumulating process journey.

I also believe it is not correct to say that people who each have 10 BTC is the correct comparison, even though technically you are correct, yet I think that the main issue is that there may well be guys of more or less equal means, and some of them are more aggressive in their BTC accumulation than others, and surely it pays to be aggressive, and so part of the point is that one of the guys is going to end up with more BTC than the other, and the sooner he gets started accumulating BTC, the more he is likely to accumulate, yet there still can end up being cases where a more aggressive investor will be able to catch up, even if he comes to BTC later. 

In one of my posts within the past week, I attempt to outline those kinds of examples in one of my posts in which I compared the examples of three different guys, and to try to show their main difference was their level of aggressiveness and when they found out about bitcoin

[MusaPk]

Bitmover, I just realized that we might also need a DCA strategy tool for buying bitcoin But that would depend on many things like your current income and what percentage of it you would like to spend.

In addition to that, maybe it can even have some sort of dynamic DCA that looks at moving averages which will influence the amount of bitcoins someone will need to buy.

I think DCA is more about learning how much return Bitcoin has given in past years on specific amount. Like if someone has invested 10$ per week for 5 years then there are tools already available that can tell you how much profit one has gained. Based on that historical data one can adjust his investment strategy for DCA.

Thankfully, signature campaigns are somewhat of a DCA for me.

Signature campaigns are not only DCA for the account owners but they also provide an easy way for persons to acquire Bitcoins specially in areas where buying Bitcoin is forbidden for different reasons.   

[bestcandy]

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

There are several threads about it, and I believe there is a good consolidation of his idea here

His strategy existed basically in excel sheets, but now there is a website version with many interactive functions:



https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy


There are basically 2 sides:
To the left you will input your data. How much BTC you want to use in this strategy and how much is your annual withdrawal rate. (recommended 4 to 6%, conservative)

To the right, you will see how much btc you are authorized to withdrawal per month based on the 200WMA. However, you may be allowed to withdrawal advanced months if the difference between spot price and 200WMA is too high.

Also, you can take a look in the past data (choose date button) and see how much you would had been authorized in the past using this tool/strategy.


There is certainly a lot of room for improvement, and I would like to hear from WO members and @fillippone which was very active in the recent discussions with JJG.

Please help me find bugs and share your ideas.

This is very impressive and commendable.
Sincerely speaking, you guys are doing perfectly great job to make Bitcoin more vulnerable and I hold you guys in a very high esteem for your tireless efforts and the significant energies you are putting to ease the process of Bitcoin withdrawal.
The work is excellent and I really appreciate your incessant it.

[JayJuanGee]

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

There are several threads about it, and I believe there is a good consolidation of his idea here
His strategy existed basically in excel sheets, but now there is a website version with many interactive functions:


https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy
There are basically 2 sides:
To the left you will input your data. How much BTC you want to use in this strategy and how much is your annual withdrawal rate. (recommended 4 to 6%, conservative)

To the right, you will see how much btc you are authorized to withdrawal per month based on the 200WMA. However, you may be allowed to withdrawal advanced months if the difference between spot price and 200WMA is too high.

Also, you can take a look in the past data (choose date button) and see how much you would had been authorized in the past using this tool/strategy.
There is certainly a lot of room for improvement, and I would like to hear from WO members and @fillippone which was very active in the recent discussions with JJG.

Please help me find bugs and share your ideas.

This is very impressive and commendable.
Sincerely speaking, you guys are doing perfectly great job to make Bitcoin more vulnerable and I hold you guys in a very high esteem for your tireless efforts and the significant energies you are putting to ease the process of Bitcoin withdrawal.
The work is excellent and I really appreciate your incessant it.

Keep in mind that my own ideas regarding withdrawal or sustainable withdrawal, whether based on price or based on time, presume that the person had reached a status of over-accumulation.. or alternatively using a set budget, for example giving a 10 Bitcoin budget to a business, then if the business were to be using a time-based withdrawal system, then the business could figure out its withdrawal rate, and so for example the tool currently asserts that a 4% annual withdrawal rate would be 0.03333333 BTC per month, even though surely I want to adjust the tool so that it would use the 200-WMA dollar value, yet we have not yet made such adjustment, and then perhaps be able to withdraw up to 10% based on that way of valuating the BTC holdings, yet we have not yet made those adjustments... so until we make such changes, it may well be better to stick with more conservative withdrawal rates of around 4-6% annualized.

[NotATether]

Keep in mind that my own ideas regarding withdrawal or sustainable withdrawal, whether based on price or based on time, presume that the person had reached a status of over-accumulation.. or alternatively using a set budget, for example giving a 10 Bitcoin budget to a business, then if the business were to be using a time-based withdrawal system, then the business could figure out its withdrawal rate, and so for example the tool currently asserts that a 4% annual withdrawal rate would be 0.03333333 BTC per month, even though surely I want to adjust the tool so that it would use the 200-WMA dollar value, yet we have not yet made such adjustment, and then perhaps be able to withdraw up to 10% based on that way of valuating the BTC holdings, yet we have not yet made those adjustments... so until we make such changes, it may well be better to stick with more conservative withdrawal rates of around 4-6% annualized.

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

[Free Market Capitalist]

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

The rule is originally intended for people who are retiring, so that the money could last about 30 years. If you haven't reached at least 60 maybe that's why it seems high to you.

Although I personally don't think the same. Bitcoin will continue to grow above inflation, well above it for many years, so with 4% or less you will not only not run out of money, you will continue to gain purchasing power.

[JayJuanGee]

Keep in mind that my own ideas regarding withdrawal or sustainable withdrawal, whether based on price or based on time, presume that the person had reached a status of over-accumulation.. or alternatively using a set budget, for example giving a 10 Bitcoin budget to a business, then if the business were to be using a time-based withdrawal system, then the business could figure out its withdrawal rate, and so for example the tool currently asserts that a 4% annual withdrawal rate would be 0.03333333 BTC per month, even though surely I want to adjust the tool so that it would use the 200-WMA dollar value, yet we have not yet made such adjustment, and then perhaps be able to withdraw up to 10% based on that way of valuating the BTC holdings, yet we have not yet made those adjustments... so until we make such changes, it may well be better to stick with more conservative withdrawal rates of around 4-6% annualized.

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

We can back test various withdrawal rates, and see that historically, BTC has been been appreciating in value more than 10% per year, even using the 200-WMA, so historically we would have had been able to get away with 10% withdrawal rates and the dollar value of our holdings would have continued to grow.

Surely 4-6% is even more than reasonable with bitcoin's historical performance, and surely would likely amount in considerable ongoing growth in the value of the BTC holdings, in spite ongoing withdrawals, and a 1-2% withdrawal rate would even be allowing the value of the BTC holdings to go up quite a bit, especially if we might average out the withdrawal numbers over a whole cycle or more.  Withdrawing at ONLY 1-2% would pretty much allow for fairly aggressive growth in the value of bitcoin holdings, which may or may not be a desired outcome, even though surely I am aware of people ongoingly being worried about their retirements stashes holding value, which seems to be more of a problem in fiatlandia rather than bitcoinlandia, yet still returns are not guaranteed yet we can take precautions to lessen our withdrawals during periods that the BTC price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA (if we so choose - which may be prudent).  

For sure as the BTC gets withdrawn, the authorized amounts would get smaller in terms of BTC amounts, in the event that we held the withdrawal rate the same in terms of percentages, such as withdrawing at 4% to 6% per year.  Of course, the greater the cushion in a persons budget size, the more likely he should be able to feel comfortable employing higher withdrawal rates in terms of percentages, again as long as he would be valuating the sufficiency of the size of his BTC holdings based on the 200-WMA rather than based on BTC spot prices.  

I had previously used the backtesting tool, described as Simulation on the website to show that fairly high rates of withdrawal would have historically been sustainable... such as 6% to 10% and even higher, and I believe that I even used higher rates than 10% to max out the tool, even though the tool maxes out at 30% per year.. and you can even experiment with 30% per year and see that your BTC holdings hold up pretty well, especially if you might have reached a status of adequate (or over) accumulation even as far back as 2015 or earlier.  Do you think that I should go through those scenarios again and try to show how it plays out with the tool?  which I prefer to spread over at least a whole cycle (meaning 4 years) in order to really get a sense for how sustainable withdrawal could work (or be calculated in terms of reaching an adequate BTC stash size).

Maybe you want to give me some ideas of what you would like to see or otherwise I would come up with my own scenarios, if you  want me to show how to use the tool in terms of backtesting some kind of a withdrawal that spans at least over a whole cycle... so for illustrative purposes, the latest date that we could start would be 4 years earlier than today, which would be late 2020...yet we could go back further, too.

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

The rule is originally intended for people who are retiring, so that the money could last about 30 years. If you haven't reached at least 60 maybe that's why it seems high to you.

I understand why you mention 30 years, since frequently in traditional financial circles, investment advisors will describe 30 years as a kind of target timeline for withdrawal of funds, even though to me it seems that any kind of withdrawal rate should be sustainable in a perpetual way, and not necessarily limited to 30 years, so therefore, there should be no need to have to be OLD in order to start to employ sustainable withdrawal as long as you conclude that you are ready to begin based on your stash size, whether than is 10 BTC or some other amount that you might have had achieved (talking in terms of hypotheticals rather than the holdings of any particular forum member).

And so frequently we are going to want to employ a withdrawal rate that averages less than the rate that our holdings grow in value.  So surely, I am not contemplating any system that unnecessarily depletes the principle of our BTC holdings, and for sure, I would rather than guys error on the side of conservatism in their withdrawal until they are sufficiently comfortable that it is going to sufficiently hold value in terms of their assessment of its valuation, yet it seems that anything at or below a 4% withdrawal rate would be quite conservative, and perhaps NotATether's suggestion of a 1-2% is overly conservative, and his suggestion of such a low withdrawal rate may well mean that he figures that he has not quite reached a status of overaccumulation of BTC to justify employing sustainable withdrawal including that he still wants to continue to build his BTC holdings, and 1% - 2% annually may well be so conservative that it may well work against his best interest, unless for some reason he is still wanting to grow his bitcoin rather than withdrawing from his BTC in a meaningful way in which he can know that he has already reached an over accumulation status.  

Again, I have no intention to talk about the actual BTC stash sizes of any particular forum member in term of figuring out what might be considered overaccumulation or the employment of a budget that I believe would provide of sustainable withdrawal, whether we are talking about 1 or 2 BTC or 10 BTC, or 20 BTC or some higher quantity of BTC as our speculative budget.

Although I personally don't think the same. Bitcoin will continue to grow above inflation, well above it for many years, so with 4% or less you will not only not run out of money, you will continue to gain purchasing power.

This part is likely true, especially if guys are valuating their holdings based on the 200-WMA rather than valuating on BTC spot prices, which can be quite erratic, as many of us have surely witnessed over the years.

By the way, I have looked at the forum registration of each of you guys (@Poker Player and @NotATether) and surely each of you have been through a whole bitcoin cycle, yet it still can be difficult to presume that merely 4-5 years of BTC accumulation would put a person at a point of overaccumulation of bitcoin, so I can see that, contrary to my earlier suggestion, neither of you would have had gotten to over accumulation by 2019 or 2020 unless you either greatly front-loaded your BTC investment or you had begun investing into bitcoin several years earlier than your forum registration dates.. and sure.. yeah of course anything is possible, and so maybe we could look at scenarios of BTC accumulation between 2018 and 2022 and then start our withdrawal strategy in 2022, yet that would still ONLY be 2 years of withdrawal, yet surely I am open to proposals in regards to hypotheticals that either (or each) of you might want to attempt to visit (and/or bat around in terms of sustainable BTC withdrawal ideas).

[fillippone]

Keep in mind that my own ideas regarding withdrawal or sustainable withdrawal, whether based on price or based on time, presume that the person had reached a status of over-accumulation.. or alternatively using a set budget, for example giving a 10 Bitcoin budget to a business, then if the business were to be using a time-based withdrawal system, then the business could figure out its withdrawal rate, and so for example the tool currently asserts that a 4% annual withdrawal rate would be 0.03333333 BTC per month, even though surely I want to adjust the tool so that it would use the 200-WMA dollar value, yet we have not yet made such adjustment, and then perhaps be able to withdraw up to 10% based on that way of valuating the BTC holdings, yet we have not yet made those adjustments... so until we make such changes, it may well be better to stick with more conservative withdrawal rates of around 4-6% annualized.

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

It is indeed very high, given the current price action.
But remember that going into the future, prices will grow slower, even accounting for incredibly bullish scenarios like a Power Law framework.
You can set your hypothesis on the included spreadsheet, and I think this is important as well: a portion of Bitcoin left for future generations, as we are the lucky ones building and looking for intergenerational wealth.

[bitmover]

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

The rule is originally intended for people who are retiring, so that the money could last about 30 years. If you haven't reached at least 60 maybe that's why it seems high to you.

Although I personally don't think the same. Bitcoin will continue to grow above inflation, well above it for many years, so with 4% or less you will not only not run out of money, you will continue to gain purchasing power.

Recently  i read a book called die with zero, which made me rethink a lot of my ideas of accumulation of money



At 60s, I won't be able to do outdoor activities (like ski surf sports hiking etc) as much as I can now at 40s.



Statistically, Americans reach their savings  ATH at the age of 75 (people receive heritages also near that age). So  what are they waiting to spend their money?

What this books tries to explains is that the money you spent earlier in life will give you more benefits than money spend later.

Good experiences costs money, and when you have good experiences and memories earlier in your life, you carry the benefits of that experiences for many years later on.

I think it is good to spend some of our bitcoin savings in experiences, not just relocating that btc to other assets.

I think this tool can somewhat guide you to spend some more in a more rational way

[Free Market Capitalist]

Recently  i read a book called die with zero, which made me rethink a lot of my ideas of accumulation of money

You don't have offspring, do you? The Rothschilds are very happy with you believing that idea, I wouldn't be surprised if they had paid the author underhand.

If you do it right you can live a great life in which your investments grow more and more, in which you can spend more and more and in which you accumulate a generational wealth bigger and bigger to leave to your descendants. Of course, you have to teach them from a very young age to manage money and be self-sufficient. Leaving millions of inheritance to spoiled children usually ends up with them squandering all the inheritance and dying of overdose.

[bitmover]

Recently  i read a book called die with zero, which made me rethink a lot of my ideas of accumulation of money

You don't have offspring, do you? The Rothschilds are very happy with you believing that idea, I wouldn't be surprised if they had paid the author underhand.

I don't care about Rothschild or any other billionaire. I just want to live my life the best way possible, I don't want to change the world.

I know money grows over time, but Money has a declining utility over you age.

You can save millions until you are 75  , missing many good experiences. Then all that will be left will be spending millions in better hospitals when you are 80s 90s (because you won't be able to travel at that age) Or just left all your sacrifice over the years for your kids (which might not even need your money when you die)

Spending money in experiences which will make you a happier person and with more culture is a good way to spend money, imo.

[Free Market Capitalist]

You can save millions until you are 75  , missing many good experiences.

To this day I don't miss any experience I would like to do to save money. The main one would be to quit my 9 to 5 job but for that I don't have enough net worth yet.

Besides, I think it is a mistake to put the focus on saving.

The book is the well known YOLO but told in a different way.

It happened to me the other way around when I was younger. I spent a lot of money on bullshit because I didn't know if I was going to die tomorrow and with hindsight that money spent didn't make me any happier.

[JayJuanGee]

Keep in mind that my own ideas regarding withdrawal or sustainable withdrawal, whether based on price or based on time, presume that the person had reached a status of over-accumulation.. or alternatively using a set budget, for example giving a 10 Bitcoin budget to a business, then if the business were to be using a time-based withdrawal system, then the business could figure out its withdrawal rate, and so for example the tool currently asserts that a 4% annual withdrawal rate would be 0.03333333 BTC per month, even though surely I want to adjust the tool so that it would use the 200-WMA dollar value, yet we have not yet made such adjustment, and then perhaps be able to withdraw up to 10% based on that way of valuating the BTC holdings, yet we have not yet made those adjustments... so until we make such changes, it may well be better to stick with more conservative withdrawal rates of around 4-6% annualized.

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

It is indeed very high, given the current price action.
But remember that going into the future, prices will grow slower, even accounting for incredibly bullish scenarios like a Power Law framework.
You can set your hypothesis on the included spreadsheet, and I think this is important as well: a portion of Bitcoin left for future generations, as we are the lucky ones building and looking for intergenerational wealth.

I still think that when I used 4% as my example of a withdrawal rate, I very much understated the possible sustainable withdrawal rate for bitcoin, even though traditional investment assets use such a 4% rate, and sometimes the traditional assets get into trouble because they are not even able to continue to average more than 4% ongoing appreciation - which surely there can be a lot of variance in regards to the performance of various assets in which a traditional fund will invest, and surely in recent times, we also likely realize that the dollar has largely been debasing at rates higher than 4% annually, so we would likely be losing purchasing power if we had been continuing with a 4% annual withdrawal rate with traditional assets.

We can look historically back at the rise of the 200-WMA, and we can see that it has never gone lower than rising 20% annualized, so my thoughts are that as long as the BTC spot price is mostly staying at least 20% to 25% the 200-WMA, then we would not need to take any measures to reduce our withdrawal rate, even if we withdrawing fairly high rates, even approaching 10% per year... and so 4% should be way less controversial than 10%, so surely I would not battle so much if guys are giving me push back about a 10% withdrawal rate, and surely I know that guys might not even employ the 10% withdrawal rate based on the 200-WMA and also to reduce their withdrawal amounts if the BTC price starts to get below 25% above the 200-WMA, as such reductions in withdrawal rates are described in the withdrawal recommendation instructions of the sustainable withdrawal tool accordingly:

>>>>>>"When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget."<<<<<<<

By the way, even though some forum members consider building their bitcoin stash based on intergenerational wealth considerations, I doubt that we necessarily need to consider our own stash in that kind of a hoarding way, and we likely still could be able to build up a large enough stash that we might be able to both live off of it and also perhaps (but not necessarily having to) pass down whatever wealth we have left over to heirs that we might have.

I think it is good to spend some of our bitcoin savings in experiences, not just relocating that btc to other assets.

I think this tool can somewhat guide you to spend some more in a more rational way

Personally, I still consider that it is much better to strive towards  a status of overaccumulation of bitcoin, and if we are spending prior to reaching such status, then we likely should be careful in regards to how much BTC we are withdrawing.. so yeah, it is not an easy balance to figure out, since a person could end up spending way too much too soon, if he had not first reached a status of overaccumulation prior to starting to spend his BTC, and perhaps in bitcoin it is good to be accumulting for a cycle or two and even to have some time between accumulation stage and then a stage of starting to withdraw BTC.  We have seen a lot of folks regretting that they spent too many BTC too soon, since they were not able to continue to build and defer gratification for a cycle or two, and instead they start spending BTC within one cycle. .which I have difficulties imagining how bitcoin might have had sufficiently grown in such a short period of time such as merely one cycle or less, as compared to those who are approaching a couple of cycles or more.

But, yeah, each of us has to try to figure out our level of starting to cash out based on our own satisfaction regarding our BTC stash and to figure out if we have yet accumulated enough in order to start cashing out, so going back to the example of the guy that had accumulated 10 BTC, he might feel that currently he needs closer to 20 BTC in order to start to cash out, so he might either continue to stack his BTC, or perhaps in a few more years (based on projections of the 200-WMA), his same 10 BTC may well be worth similarly as 20 BTC are today, so he merely needs to either hold out until late 2027, and he can spend from his fiat if he does not feel that it is helpful for him to continue to stack BTC in the next 3-ish years... yet I am trying to assert that sometimes the passage of time has historically allowed a lower and lower quantity of BTC to accomplish similar kinds of goals in terms of BTC historically appreciating in value way better than any other asset and/or currency, and there is no real evidence that such dynamic is NOT going to continue in bitcoin, even though surely past performance does not equal future results and there could potentially be a variety of ways in which bitcoin ends up underperforming expectations, yet any of us who are in the process of cashing out BTC or considering starting to cash out BTC may well need to be attempting to account for various scenarios that not only attempt to project base case ideas, yet also outlier situations in either BTC price direction.

Recently  i read a book called die with zero, which made me rethink a lot of my ideas of accumulation of money

You don't have offspring, do you? The Rothschilds are very happy with you believing that idea, I wouldn't be surprised if they had paid the author underhand.

I don't care about Rothschild or any other billionaire. I just want to live my life the best way possible, I don't want to change the world.

I know money grows over time, but Money has a declining utility over you age.
You can save millions until you are 75  , missing many good experiences. Then all that will be left will be spending millions in better hospitals when you are 80s 90s (because you won't be able to travel at that age) Or just left all your sacrifice over the years for your kids (which might not even need your money when you die)

Spending money in experiences which will make you a happier person and with more culture is a good way to spend money, imo.

I am not against the idea of passing on some wealth to kids and also mostly attempting to spend money too, and personally, it seems to me that bitcoin allows a lot of the possibilities of being able to accomplish both...living well, and also making sure that you have a cash cushion, whether you plan to leave that cash cushion to heirs or just to have it just in case... no one really wants to outlive their money either, which does seem to be a bit of a common trend that happens with folks once they reach their elder years, to the extent that they are not working anymore, they tend to become somewhat dependent upon fixed income kinds of cashflows that are not keeping up with the cost of living, even though like you mentioned, it may well be the case that some elderly may not have as many expenses as they had when they were younger and were physically able to do more things.

I think that Poker Player is correct with the idea that bitcoin can quite likely allow us to both spend more as we get older, increase our standard of living and still maintain and perhaps even have our bitcoin growing as we are choosing our withdrawal levels in ways that are sustainable and even growth-oriented.

You can save millions until you are 75  , missing many good experiences.

To this day I don't miss any experience I would like to do to save money. The main one would be to quit my 9 to 5 job but for that I don't have enough net worth yet.
Besides, I think it is a mistake to put the focus on saving.

The book is the well known YOLO but told in a different way.
It happened to me the other way around when I was younger. I spent a lot of money on bullshit because I didn't know if I was going to die tomorrow and with hindsight that money spent didn't make me any happier.

Surely if we throw some numbers out there, and maybe we are currently considering something like $6k per month to be what we would need to have a sustainable and comfortable kind of an existence, even though it could be that our current income is ONLY in the ballpark of $4k per month.  So maybe we would project forward a bit of a cushion, and also when we project forward in bitcoin, we likely are presuming that bitcoin has decently good chances to outperform the debasement of fiat and also to continue to appreciate in value sufficiently that we are able to withdraw 4% or higher, yet if we are still trying to be conservative with our numbers like you (@Poker Player) seemed to have had  been doing in your earlier projections, then we might see how much 1% to 2% would get us so that we would not end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon.  So if we underestimate our BTC withdrawal rate and we see that we are able to live off of a withdrawal rate that is so low as 1% to 2%, then we also likely have enough of a cushion in our framework, even though it could also be the case that we are overly lowballing our realistic abilities to live off bitcoin with a much smaller stash size than we had been considering that we were going to be needing, when the time comes to pull the fuck you lever (meaning quitting your job and living off your bitcoin or otherwise no longer needing to  sustain ourselves through the wages of a 9-5 job).

[bitmover]

It happened to me the other way around when I was younger. I spent a lot of money on bullshit because I didn't know if I was going to die tomorrow and with hindsight that money spent didn't make me any happier.

No, this is not what the book is about.

People who waste money in bullshit aren't the target audience of the book.

This book is written for people who invested a lot of money over the life and should review their accumulation goals.

 I believe especially people who focused since early professional life in the FIRE moviment , quite common in my generation,  which many people live a very frugal life saving a lot

I am not against the idea of passing on some wealth to kids and also mostly attempting to spend money too, and personally, it seems to me that bitcoin allows a lot of the possibilities of being able to accomplish both...living well, and also making sure that you have a cash cushion, whether you plan to leave that cash cushion to heirs or just to have it just in case... no one really wants to outlive their money either, which does seem to be a bit of a common trend that happens with folks once they reach their elder years, to the extent that they are not working anymore, they tend to become somewhat dependent upon fixed income kinds of cashflows that are not keeping up with the cost of living, even though like you mentioned, it may well be the case that some elderly may not have as many expenses as they had when they were younger and were physically able to do more things.

I think the main point is that when you save indefinitely,  you end up transferring money from your poor  young self to your old rich self in the future. How much does it makes sense

Just be aware of your financial decision to hold and save

There is a balance , which is not easy to determine.

But certainly save all is not the perfect balance for most people.

[OsaiEmma]

Surely if we throw some numbers out there, and maybe we are currently considering something like $6k per month to be what we would need to have a sustainable and comfortable kind of an existence, even though it could be that our current income is ONLY in the ballpark of $4k per month.  So maybe we would project forward a bit of a cushion, and also when we project forward in bitcoin, we likely are presuming that bitcoin has decently good chances to outperform the debasement of fiat and also to continue to appreciate in value sufficiently that we are able to withdraw 4% or higher, yet if we are still trying to be conservative with our numbers like you (@Poker Player) seemed to have had  been doing in your earlier projections, then we might see how much 1% to 2% would get us so that we would not end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon.  So if we underestimate our BTC withdrawal rate and we see that we are able to live off of a withdrawal rate that is so low as 1% to 2%, then we also likely have enough of a cushion in our framework, even though it could also be the case that we are overly lowballing our realistic abilities to live off bitcoin with a much smaller stash size than we had been considering that we were going to be needing, when the time comes to pull the fuck you lever (meaning quitting your job and living off your bitcoin or otherwise no longer needing to  sustain ourselves through the wages of a 9-5 job).
[/quote]I have a question to ask though, in achieving this kind of profitability so as to be withdrawing 1 - 2% of ur portfolio every month and then "pull the fuck you lever" as u have said, what kind of investment strategy are you employing? Cause if it is hodling, then it will take a very long time unless you're DCA'ing, again, you will need alot of capital, or maybe is it by trading scooping profits by buying low and selling high constantly (spot) or trading on future prices which in all it's still very risky, so I guess in all, I'm asking which investment strategy is best so as to achieve this financial freedom

[JayJuanGee]

It happened to me the other way around when I was younger. I spent a lot of money on bullshit because I didn't know if I was going to die tomorrow and with hindsight that money spent didn't make me any happier.

No, this is not what the book is about.
People who waste money in bullshit aren't the target audience of the book.

This book is written for people who invested a lot of money over the life and should review their accumulation goals.
 I believe especially people who focused since early professional life in the FIRE moviment , quite common in my generation,  which many people live a very frugal life saving a lot

We still have to be careful not to overly read into a book that might not sufficiently account for needs to make sure that we stacked enough BTC first, and surely if you had been stacking BTC the whole 7 years of your time of being on the forum, then sure it could be true that you have gotten to a point in which you have accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, so then you can start to cash out some of those BTC, yet I have my doubts that you have had been heads down stacking BTC for the past 7 years, yet maybe that is too presumptive of me.

Based on your location, I understand that you likely have not been able to stack $100 per week of bitcoin over the past 7 years, and even if you had been able to stack $100 per week you would have had invested $36,600 and you would have right around 2.715 BTC.  Would that be enough BTC to start to live on it rather than to continue to stack for another cycle or more? I wonder.  I am not trying to "I gotcha" on any of this because you are in a better position to know yourself, and surely it is possible that any of us might have been able to outperform a DCA strategy if we had been able to front load our BTC investment, and I can consider a variety of scenarios in which a decent amount of front loading could have had been done in order to result in about a $36,600 budget to have had resulted in more than 2.715 BTC, for example anyone who might have had been able to front-load their investment in a shorter timeline. 

So for example a guy who was able to average invest around $233 per week over three years from late 2017 until late 2020 may well would have invested a similar amount of $36,600, yet he would have had accumulated about 5 BTC rather than 2.715 BTC.

Surely, I am not even proclaiming that any of us can be so smart to either frontload our investment effectively or even guys who were able to lump sum invest into bitcoin with BTC prices around $6k to $7k, might have been able to buy nearly 6 BTC with the same amount of $36,600, yet many of us are not in a position to just throw some extra lump sums at strategically better BTC prices, and we tend to need to establish our BTC stake over time, even if we might have some money that we can reallocate from some other investments that we might have had previously had.

So I understand that in Brazil (or should I say places in South America), it surely would be possible to have a reasonably sustainable income, even off of something like 5 BTC, which even at 4%, it would be around 0.016 BTC per month, which truly could be in the ballpark of enough and in the ballpark of sustainable.. even though again, I still am thinking that some tweaks might need to come to some of the formulas in the sustainable withdrawal tool to help us to consider these matters in terms of the 200-WMA dollar valuations rather than becoming overly reliant on BTC spot prices or overly withdrawing of BTC, yet if we are remaining with what I consider to be relatively conservative withdrawals of 4%, it seems to be that your bitcoin will continue to grow faster than something like a 4%-ish annual withdrawal rate.

By the way, again, there is no need to give your exact numbers, and we can talk in terms of hypotheticals because I still consider that there can be a lot of challenges to really get to something like 5 BTC currently, even for a guy with 7 years of bitcoin experience absent some fairly aggressive early investment and mostly refraining from overly shaving off BTC stash in the past 7-ish years.

As you may recall in my own case, I started similar to you in terms of registering in the forum towards the top of the market (mine was 2013 and yours was 2017), and so I surely consider that it could be possible to front load your investment in your early years, and buy a decent amount of BTC as the price is going down, so that by the time the BTC price starts recovering, a few years later, then you (we) have mostly already built up our BTC position, so that we might have had gotten ourselves to a status of overaccumulation in the first few years of our investment into bitcoin (which was the case for me), yet I am having my doubts about whether you would have had been able to reach anything close to overaccumulation status.. and in my own case, by late 2013, I had already had more than 20 years of building up various other (non-BTC) investments, so I was able to draw from some of that in order to be a bit more aggressive with my BTC investment as compared to many guys who might be getting into bitcoin and they also might not have a lot of other investments in order that they can either leverage or to use as ways to justify  their BTC stash as being a kind of hedge against their other non-BTC (traditional) investments.

Recently I had made posts about the hypothetical guy who considers 21-ish BTC as a sufficient investment amount that would get him to fuck you status (even considering 200-WMA) prices, and so if a guy considers 21 BTC as sufficient, then he may feel even better if he had overly accumulated and he had 35 BTC (so he is more than 60% beyond his goal), so he can feel comfortable setting his BTC withdrawal strategy.  Yet the guy who has ONLY accumulated 7 BTC so far, is about 60% below such 21 BTC goal, and so that guy with ONLY 7 BTC would likely need to continue stacking for a whole cycle in order to potentially start to feel that his 7 BTC (and plus whatever he might be able to add to it in the coming 4 years) is then likely to be close to equivalent as the 21 BTC stash today.. and so then in 4 years he would have potentially good chances to be approaching getting to status of sufficient BTC accumulation, even though he would not be at an overaccumulation status at that point, even though give another 1-2 years, his same 7-ish BTC (and whatever additional BTC that he might be able to continue to stack) might start to feel as if they are at an overaccumulation  status.

I am not against the idea of passing on some wealth to kids and also mostly attempting to spend money too, and personally, it seems to me that bitcoin allows a lot of the possibilities of being able to accomplish both...living well, and also making sure that you have a cash cushion, whether you plan to leave that cash cushion to heirs or just to have it just in case... no one really wants to outlive their money either, which does seem to be a bit of a common trend that happens with folks once they reach their elder years, to the extent that they are not working anymore, they tend to become somewhat dependent upon fixed income kinds of cashflows that are not keeping up with the cost of living, even though like you mentioned, it may well be the case that some elderly may not have as many expenses as they had when they were younger and were physically able to do more things.

I think the main point is that when you save indefinitely,  you end up transferring money from your poor  young self to your old rich self in the future. How much does it makes sense
Just be aware of your financial decision to hold and save

There is a balance , which is not easy to determine.
But certainly save all is not the perfect balance for most people.

I think that you might be creating a bit of a strawman argument, since I doubt that any of us is saying to save without having some timeline for starting to potentially withdraw from your BTC stash, yet I frequently have asserted that it can be problematic for guys to be dipping into their principle, so that is part of the reason to try to get to a status of overaccumulation before starting to cash out... since if you are still accumulating bitcoin and you have not quite reached a status of overaccumulation, then to me, it hardly makes any sense to be prematurely cashing out and/or trying to trade bitcoin and things like that.. which means overly spending during UPpity price periods with expectations to buy some or all of that BTC cheaper, which may end up being a form of gambling rather than really thinking through the need to get to a real and meaningful status of overaccumulation and having a wee bit of patience that may not even take as long as you seem to be implying it to heir take.. .which you are saying indefinite, and many times, one or two more cycles may well end ujp making a world of difference to guys who are accumulating BTC and biting their nails for their first opportunities to spend their "profits" in likely overly premature kinds of ways.

Sure, you are free to do whatever you like and rationalize your behaviors of spending too much bitcoin too soon, which seems to me to have great potential of putting you in a position in which you never really are able to get close to fuck you status, even though it would have been well within your reach with a wee bit more patience of perhaps a cycle or two more of accumulation rather than getting overly excited to spend from whatever little BTC that you had been able to accumulate that likely had not reached a status of enough or more than enough, which from my point of view should be the case when starting to employ sustainable withdrawal practices, that can both allow to spend at or more than your needs and/or even to continue to build while you are in a status of increasingly greater financial freedom by attempting to exerise prudent and responsible cashing out practices.

Surely if we throw some numbers out there, and maybe we are currently considering something like $6k per month to be what we would need to have a sustainable and comfortable kind of an existence, even though it could be that our current income is ONLY in the ballpark of $4k per month.  So maybe we would project forward a bit of a cushion, and also when we project forward in bitcoin, we likely are presuming that bitcoin has decently good chances to outperform the debasement of fiat and also to continue to appreciate in value sufficiently that we are able to withdraw 4% or higher, yet if we are still trying to be conservative with our numbers like you (@Poker Player) seemed to have had  been doing in your earlier projections, then we might see how much 1% to 2% would get us so that we would not end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon.  So if we underestimate our BTC withdrawal rate and we see that we are able to live off of a withdrawal rate that is so low as 1% to 2%, then we also likely have enough of a cushion in our framework, even though it could also be the case that we are overly lowballing our realistic abilities to live off bitcoin with a much smaller stash size than we had been considering that we were going to be needing, when the time comes to pull the fuck you lever (meaning quitting your job and living off your bitcoin or otherwise no longer needing to  sustain ourselves through the wages of a 9-5 job).

I have a question to ask though, in achieving this kind of profitability so as to be withdrawing 1 - 2% of ur portfolio every month

First, you did not properly quote me, which I fixed it.

Second, I am pretty sure that Poker Player was not talking about 1-2% per month, but instead he was talking about 1-2% per year, which I considered to be overly conservative, but still, guys can do what they want. .and it may well be better to start out overly conservative in regards to cashing out rather than over doing it, especially if guys might be less than a couple of cycles into bitcoin.

and then "pull the fuck you lever" as u have said, what kind of investment strategy are you employing?

Surely none of us can really assess exactly when guys would be in a position to pull the fuck you lever, yet it seems to me that if most if not all or maybe even more than a guy's annual salary can be obtained through living off of bitcoin, then a guy would be in a better position to pull such fuck you status, as long as he is able to figure out that he had reached such status and he is not making mistakes in his calculations, which truly brings me back to saying that I personally prefer to valuate our BTC stash based on 200-Week Moving average assessments rather than using spot price, and so the 200-WMA is a way to try to estimate bottom prices which would likely help us to better appreciate if we have enough BTC based on such estimated bottom prices rather than getting overly excited about BTC spot prices.. especially since if we are planning to employ some kind of a sustainable withdrawal of our BTC, we should not be considering converting large portions of our BTC into dollars rather than attempting to maintain our BTC stash and withdrawing from it on a regular basis, whether the actual withdrawals were to happen monthly, quarterly, yearly or some other kind of a timeline, which also may or may not be accompanied by attempts to time our withdrawals for Up periods in BTC prices rather than crashes or bottoms.

In regards to investment strategy, truly a guy has to get to a point of having had accumulated enough or more than enough BTC through buying through the years, perhaps even a combination of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.  I would not consider trading or any form of selling to buy back cheaper as a responsible method to accumulate BTC, which truly could take 1-2 cycles or more to get a BTC stash to be at a status of sufficient and/or over accumulation in order to justify either beginning to employ sustainable withdrawal whether time based and/or price based or actually executing pulling the fuck you lever (to the extent that fuck you levers are voluntarily rather than involuntarily pulled).

Cause if it is hodling, then it will take a very long time unless you're DCA'ing, again, you will need alot of capital, or maybe is it by trading scooping profits by buying low and selling high constantly (spot) or trading on future prices which in all it's still very risky, so I guess in all, I'm asking which investment strategy is best so as to achieve this financial freedom

Again, I doubt that trading is a good idea to build bitcoin wealth, and personally I consider trading to be dumb, especially for anyone who might be able to earn income from other places, and to set aside a certain quantity of his discretionary income for bitcoin investing, and yeah, if you are just starting now, you may well need 1-2 cycles or more to really build up your bitcoin holdings depending on a variety of your 9-ish personal factors, which you might want to review... also bitcoin investing is far from guaranteed, so you have to account for how aggressive you are able to be in your bitcoin investment based on your ability to establish strong back up funds and other ways of managing your cashflows so that you don't end up wrecking yourself... so I frequently talk about being as aggressively as you are able to be as long as you are not over aggressive to such an extent that you wreck yourself, and no one is going to help you or feel sorry for you if you fuck up by being overly aggressive or ending up gambling/trading  BTC rather than investing in it.. which surely could take 4-10 years or longer and if you are a beginner in investing, you may well want to consider best case scenarios of more than 10 years and perhaps closer to 15-20 years of investing in bitcoin, unless you are able to reasonably engage in frontloading of your bitcoin investment (which can be difficult for beginner investors to accomplish).

[bitmover]

It happened to me the other way around when I was younger. I spent a lot of money on bullshit because I didn't know if I was going to die tomorrow and with hindsight that money spent didn't make me any happier.

No, this is not what the book is about.
People who waste money in bullshit aren't the target audience of the book.

This book is written for people who invested a lot of money over the life and should review their accumulation goals.
 I believe especially people who focused since early professional life in the FIRE moviment , quite common in my generation,  which many people live a very frugal life saving a lot

We still have to be careful not to overly read into a book that might not sufficiently account for needs to make sure that we stacked enough BTC first, and surely if you had been stacking BTC the whole 7 years of your time of being on the forum, then sure it could be true that you have gotten to a point in which you have accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, so then you can start to cash out some of those BTC, yet I have my doubts that you have had been heads down stacking BTC for the past 7 years, yet maybe that is too presumptive of me.

Based on your location, I understand that you likely have not been able to stack $100 per week of bitcoin over the past 7 years, and even if you had been able to stack $100 per week you would have had invested $36,600 and you would have right around 2.715 BTC.  Would that be enough BTC to start to live on it rather than to continue to stack for another cycle or more? I wonder.  I am not trying to "I gotcha" on any of this because you are in a better position to know yourself, and surely it is possible that any of us might have been able to outperform a DCA strategy if we had been able to front load our BTC investment, and I can consider a variety of scenarios in which a decent amount of front loading could have had been done in order to result in about a $36,600 budget to have had resulted in more than 2.715 BTC, for example anyone who might have had been able to front-load their investment in a shorter timeline. 

I think that this gets too personal, but, I was able to stack more than that per week just through signature campaigns... which used to pay much more than that less than 1-2y ago.

Anyway , I know that many people get troubled with the idea of spending money before they get old. It is worth reading, for sure.

Because hitting your ATH of saving at 75y is certainly a waste of life.

[Free Market Capitalist]

This book is written for people who invested a lot of money over the life and should review their accumulation goals.

Yes well, I recently opened a thread that we can say contrary to the movement recently:

This thread is in contrast to the following one:

Financial Independence Retire Early [F.I.R.E]

... Some FIRE stories are of a sub-human stinginess to reach the goal of financial freedom, and then when they get it they still find it hard to spend the money...

But the concept of dying with 0 seems to me to be a mistake in itself, if not tell this guy:



Do you think he is regretting not having spent more when he was young on experiences? He has had a pretty frugal life, especially compared to the wealth he has.

Besides the fact that it seems to me a selfish concept. Using money to help others is one of the things that has given me the most satisfaction, something you can do at any age. To think that I have to die with 0 because I have to maximize my enjoyment of experiences as a young person is to think “me, me, me.”

That's not to go into whether those experiences I want to enjoy are something I need to be happy or needs created from a superficiality.

[bitmover]

But the concept of dying with 0 seems to me to be a mistake in itself, if not tell this guy:



Do you think he is regretting not having spent more when he was young on experiences? He has had a pretty frugal life, especially compared to the wealth he has.

Buffet is one of the richests guy on earth. You won't reach him, comparing yourself with him will only lead to frustration.

Besides the fact that it seems to me a selfish concept. Using money to help others is one of the things that has given me the most satisfaction, something you can do at any age. To think that I have to die with 0 because I have to maximize my enjoyment of experiences as a young person is to think “me, me, me.”

That's not to go into whether those experiences I want to enjoy are something I need to be happy or needs created from a superficiality.

You are judging the book by its title.

Die with zero isn't selfish.

You can make charity with your money when you are alive, not dead.

You can give your money to your kids when they are young and they need money, at 30s-40s, not when you die and they are about 70s and already rich. Or even worse, your kids may die before you.

You are just wrong about the concepts of the book. Criticizing without reading .

[Synchronice]

Do you think he is regretting not having spent more when he was young on experiences? He has had a pretty frugal life, especially compared to the wealth he has.

Besides the fact that it seems to me a selfish concept. Using money to help others is one of the things that has given me the most satisfaction, something you can do at any age. To think that I have to die with 0 because I have to maximize my enjoyment of experiences as a young person is to think “me, me, me.”

That's not to go into whether those experiences I want to enjoy are something I need to be happy or needs created from a superficiality.

They aren't normal or let's say, average people, so it's hard to say whether they regret it or not. Overall, our mindset changes every year, especially in late ages when you gain all the experience and become wiser compared to 99% of people.
I think that some people are like that, they prefer to have wealth over spending it. They might wish to do both but they prioritize only one and in this case Warren Buffet prioritized wealth, that's why he was living a frugal life. Maybe all of these come from childhood traumas, I don't know because I watched a recent interview of Elon Musk where Don Lemon asked him, you are an intense person, where does that intensity come from? And Elon Musk's answer was that he was born that way and also, he had a tough childhood. So, I believe that behind people like Elon Musk, Waren Buffet and others, there is a childhood trauma that made them who they are today.
If I were Elon or Warren, I'd spend my life like Conor McGregor but wouldn't become an addict