The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ?

[Kakmakr]

The problem with China are all the misinformation that are spread, because the Chinese government are not very transparent, when it comes to the distribution of information. 

A lot of independent economists are making their own predictions and analysis, based on the little amount of information that are available. We know China are hiding a much bigger problem, but we do not know how bad it is, so we will probably only know when the sh1t hits the fan... and then it will be too late, because this will have a huge ripple affect all over the world. with China being one of the biggest economies on this planet. 

[shield132]

Yeah, unfortunately, it's China that's indeed running the show now. And it's not hard to prove this. We only have to realize that everything is made, produced, assembled, manufactured in China from paper clips and erasers to the very materials that made the building in which we live. T

That is not true.
About 40% of the products are made in China, in some countries it might be more. Most goods are made under western development.
And if left alone China would be bankrupt, If your country purely relies on exports, you do not have a sustainable economy. You have a dependent one.
Furthermore China lacks a Word Currency plus the mechanism  to send it around.

Most of the world runs on an antique banking system. The 1st World is a little more advanced in banking..

China is a very interesting country and the way we manufacture in China and made China dependent on export, is even more interesting. Btw I don't understand why it's always China that's dependent on export and production while Western countries depend on what? If China produces almost everything, then how are western countries going to get very important techs like smartphones, computer parts and etc? China also wants to gain control on Taiwan where many other part of technics is manufactured. If Taiwan becomes part of China, then it means that China produces almost all of our smartphones, TVs, computers and etc...

In Germany I went into a bank and received a small credit based on my idea.

Being able to got under debt so easily is not as good a sign as you may think.

You are right. A few years ago, it was very easy to get a loan in my country. Many people here work unofficially, don't pay taxes and when you would go to Bank, you had to describe your job, tell them your income and the bank would give you money according to that (btw your numbers had to be close to reality).
To be fair, the majority of the population of my country isn't smart and statistics prove that. Many people got their lives destroyed because of easy loans, so I agree with you, being able to get under debt easily is not a good thing.

[DrBeer]

Yeah, unfortunately, it's China that's indeed running the show now. And it's not hard to prove this. We only have to realize that everything is made, produced, assembled, manufactured in China from paper clips and erasers to the very materials that made the building in which we live. T

That is not true.
About 40% of the products are made in China, in some countries it might be more. Most goods are made under western development.
And if left alone China would be bankrupt, If your country purely relies on exports, you do not have a sustainable economy. You have a dependent one.
Furthermore China lacks a Word Currency plus the mechanism  to send it around.

Most of the world runs on an antique banking system. The 1st World is a little more advanced in banking..

China is a very interesting country and the way we manufacture in China and made China dependent on export, is even more interesting. Btw I don't understand why it's always China that's dependent on export and production while Western countries depend on what? If China produces almost everything, then how are western countries going to get very important techs like smartphones, computer parts and etc? China also wants to gain control on Taiwan where many other part of technics is manufactured. If Taiwan becomes part of China, then it means that China produces almost all of our smartphones, TVs, computers and etc...

In Germany I went into a bank and received a small credit based on my idea.

Being able to got under debt so easily is not as good a sign as you may think.

You are right. A few years ago, it was very easy to get a loan in my country. Many people here work unofficially, don't pay taxes and when you would go to Bank, you had to describe your job, tell them your income and the bank would give you money according to that (btw your numbers had to be close to reality).
To be fair, the majority of the population of my country isn't smart and statistics prove that. Many people got their lives destroyed because of easy loans, so I agree with you, being able to get under debt easily is not a good thing.

1. Plans to invade Taiwan have several reasons. One of them is really technological, as China itself has problems with technology and its dependence on Western high technology. But the military way is to lose the manufacturing base, equipment and much more. The second reason is political, or more precisely, the classic solution of internal problems and tensions through a “small victorious war”. But... China's hopes for its “tame dog” Russia, which promised to set an example of how one can spit on international rules, obligations and lack of impunity, failed in 2022. China's expectations of russia and its terrorist adventure to “take Kiev in 3 days” have failed. Moreover, this “experiment” gave the opposite result - strengthening of NATO, military-industrial complex of NATO countries, and development of new principles of deterrence and “forcing to kindness” the countries of terrorists and international criminals.
2. Loans are a tool. Like for example a knife, a lighter and so on. And if a person is a fool, he will also suffer from its use
In simplified terms: credit in the hands of a smart person is, for example, building or developing a business. In the hands of a fool it means poverty and debts. As they say - if you don't know how to use it, don't touch it

[Darker45]

~snip~

~snip~

China is a very interesting country and the way we manufacture in China and made China dependent on export, is even more interesting. Btw I don't understand why it's always China that's dependent on export and production while Western countries depend on what? If China produces almost everything, then how are western countries going to get very important techs like smartphones, computer parts and etc? China also wants to gain control on Taiwan where many other part of technics is manufactured. If Taiwan becomes part of China, then it means that China produces almost all of our smartphones, TVs, computers and etc...

China is indeed interesting, but not necessarily in the positive sense. Anyway, if China, the third largest country in the world and the most populous in many decades, is so dependent on export, then perhaps other countries are dependent on imports.

But China producing almost everything doesn't mean China produces everything.

China wants to gain control of Taiwan. China wants to gain control of every country in the world. And they use all means necessary to do that. It's a combination of bullying, debt traps, friendly gestures, grants, trade offers, and whatnot.

But the rule has always been that China can't be trusted. I'm not saying the US can be trusted though.

[pooya87]

China is indeed interesting, but not necessarily in the positive sense. Anyway, if China, the third largest country in the world and the most populous in many decades, is so dependent on export, then perhaps other countries are dependent on imports.

That is an excellent point that people always forget when they get lost in the mainstream media nonsense. This becomes more palpable when apart from the size of their imports from China you also check out the trade deficits different countries have with China (that is when what they import from China is more than what they export to China). For example US itself has been facing $300-$400 billion deficit which means US is that much more dependent on China than China is on US.

[avikz]

China is indeed interesting, but not necessarily in the positive sense. Anyway, if China, the third largest country in the world and the most populous in many decades, is so dependent on export, then perhaps other countries are dependent on imports.

That is an excellent point that people always forget when they get lost in the mainstream media nonsense. This becomes more palpable when apart from the size of their imports from China you also check out the trade deficits different countries have with China (that is when what they import from China is more than what they export to China). For example US itself has been facing $300-$400 billion deficit which means US is that much more dependent on China than China is on US.

Well, there's a good reason why many countries import from China. It's because Chinese companies know how to mass produce things at a bare minimum cost. Chinese governments are friendly to the businesses and their policies are flexible which allows them to produce cheaper. Things are changing but at a very slow pace.

The Chinese economy is at risk due to their real estate sector. Their exports are still strong and in many cases have no competition. If the Chinese economy goes down, they will be able to produce the goods even cheaper because the manpower will become cheaper.

It's not easy to dethrone China from the current position.

[pooya87]

The Chinese economy is at risk due to their real estate sector.

It definitely is a problem but I don't think it is as big a problem as it was made to be in the mainstream media. We have to see though.

It's not easy to dethrone China from the current position.

It depends on who's trying.
For example US or EU will not be able to do that in a million years. Decades of bad economic decisions and capitalism has mostly killed their production capabilities. This is why a lot of Western companies from Apple to VW can not even exist without China.
If they go against China, they will suffer more themselves.

However, there are other serious competitors capable of doing what China does. For example India. They have the population, the cheap work force, and they have been moving in that direction. Their GDP growth has been big and it is getting closer to be 9% annually. Additionally India is in a way absorbing the capital that is fleeing Europe as Europe continues getting deindustrialized.

[shield132]

China itself has problems with technology and its dependence on Western high technology.

On what western high technology does China depend? Also isn't this a myth anymore that Chinese aren't creatives? Nowadays they invent and create many good things as I have heard.

2. Loans are a tool. Like for example a knife, a lighter and so on. And if a person is a fool, he will also suffer from its use
In simplified terms: credit in the hands of a smart person is, for example, building or developing a business. In the hands of a fool it means poverty and debts. As they say - if you don't know how to use it, don't touch it

The majority of the population is not smart, they are lazy also and love easy money, so that's why I agree with the statement that an easy loan is not a good thing.

China is indeed interesting, but not necessarily in the positive sense. Anyway, if China, the third largest country in the world and the most populous in many decades, is so dependent on export, then perhaps other countries are dependent on imports.

But China producing almost everything doesn't mean China produces everything.

China wants to gain control of Taiwan. China wants to gain control of every country in the world. And they use all means necessary to do that. It's a combination of bullying, debt traps, friendly gestures, grants, trade offers, and whatnot.

But the rule has always been that China can't be trusted. I'm not saying the US can be trusted though.

Other countries that depend on imports (exports from China), what do they produce? I can't understand why I always hear that China depends on export. Almost everything I own is made in China, so what do other countries create that makes China more dependent on them than them on China?

I think that China won't be able to gain control of every country in the world because their culture and language is very different. It was easy and possible for Britain to gain control because their language is still near to our languages. I'm far from Britain but when it comes to grammar, the way we make sentences and etc, there are similarities. I would even say that English is one of the easiest language while Chinese is one of the hardest language. Even if China conquers the whole world, it would require a new generation to make people speak Chinese.

[bitgolden]

Not everyone depends on imports from China directly though. Yes China depends on exports, but other nations could import from somewhere that is not China, maybe it would be lower quality, maybe it would be higher price, maybe it will take longer on shipping, we really don't know what will happen but we know one thing, which is the fact that it is going to be not China if they just don't want to deal with China. In which case China would have a very hard time selling anything, not their own products, not manufacture for other companies, everything will be hard.

Just imagine Europe and USA puts a huge tariff on anything there, suddenly we will see it is not worth it to get from China and that will cause all companies and people to not pay for that much for Chinese products. It's all political, China has to get along well with west if they want to keep being rich, the moment they do something wrong, like maybe a Taiwan issue, then suddenly all of west will turn on China very easily.

[WillyAp]

1. Plans to invade Taiwan have several reasons. One of them is really technological, as China itself has problems with technology and its dependence on Western high technology. But the military way is to lose the manufacturing base, equipment and much more. The second reason is political, or more precisely, the classic solution of internal problems and tensions through a “small victorious war”.

I think that a war will just do away with the technological parts of Taiwan. That already would turn tables with the west whose trying to throttle China technologically. 

Another matter is investment, already there come less info out of China as the Economist says:

https://archive.ph/afheC
Originally here it is published: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/09/05/bad-information-is-a-grave-threat-to-chinas-economy

Less information, trouble at home is a perfects storm. 

[Darker45]

~snip~

Other countries that depend on imports (exports from China), what do they produce? I can't understand why I always hear that China depends on export. Almost everything I own is made in China, so what do other countries create that makes China more dependent on them than them on China?

You have to take note that while China is the number 1 exporter in the world, they're also the number 2 importer. While their exports are in trillions, their imports are also in trillions. China actually imports electronics, petroleum, iron ore, and so on. But, overall, the world is more dependent on China than them on the world.

I think that China won't be able to gain control of every country in the world because their culture and language is very different. It was easy and possible for Britain to gain control because their language is still near to our languages. I'm far from Britain but when it comes to grammar, the way we make sentences and etc, there are similarities. I would even say that English is one of the easiest language while Chinese is one of the hardest language. Even if China conquers the whole world, it would require a new generation to make people speak Chinese.

This is the age of neocolonialism. Language and culture don't anymore matter that much. It is not even about conquest anymore. China doesn't have to send its military to control other countries. It is just enough for them to trap other countries with debts. It is enough for China to make other countries subservient to them by simply being their dominant trade partner. China gains control over other countries by simply granting them huge loans to finance their basic services projects and basic infrastructure.

These seemingly friendly and charitable acts of goodwill are enough for China to have other countries by their throat.

[DrBeer]

China itself has problems with technology and its dependence on Western high technology.

On what western high technology does China depend? Also isn't this a myth anymore that Chinese aren't creatives? Nowadays they invent and create many good things as I have heard.

2. Loans are a tool. Like for example a knife, a lighter and so on. And if a person is a fool, he will also suffer from its use
In simplified terms: credit in the hands of a smart person is, for example, building or developing a business. In the hands of a fool it means poverty and debts. As they say - if you don't know how to use it, don't touch it

The majority of the population is not smart, they are lazy also and love easy money, so that's why I agree with the statement that an easy loan is not a good thing.

1. China is a huge manufacturing industry, tou can't argue with that.  But ... you can, for example, read this analysis: https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/juergen-matthes-simon-gerards-iglesias-china-kann-nicht-ohne-den-westen-1.html

2.  I agree that most people do not know how to manage money ... But whose problem is that ? Banks or stupid people ?

[WillyAp]

2.  I agree that most people do not know how to manage money ... But whose problem is that ? Banks or stupid people ?

Most are not all. The biggest issue is that we cannot generalize people's behavior.
In regards to The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ?  
It is getting worse. Most leftist and fascism regimes like to hide data. In that tradition China is not falling behind. 
Especially when time looks kinda bad it seems, Those regimes do not see data as a way to create trust, trust is the most important money creator.
 
https://archive.ph/dI8Zz
The original article is here https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/09/05/the-chinese-authorities-are-concealing-the-state-of-the-economy

 

[Oluwa-btc]

As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.

I think the decline in China's economy will significantly affect the global economy and china's social economy and landscape leading to a major risks in business,market and major areas too.
Imagine the decline in the China economy has caused a high Chance of unemployment in the society and people unable to meet up to standards.This continuous decline is what I don't get because it's becoming so alarming and fustrating and neighbouring countries are being affected by this effects as well but with time I believe they can scale through this a whole lot if they can make some certain adjustment in the economy or need help from neighbouring countries too.

[DrBeer]

Chinese statistics are the new meme, apparently Perfect example : official statement - “gold reserves increased by 6.3 billion dollars”. The average person thinks that China bought 6.3 billion dollars in gold reserves. But the reality is as follows: as there were 72.8 million ounces in the reserves, so it remained. The only thing is that the value of the existing reserves has increased from $176.67 billion to $182.98 billion, which exactly corresponds to the increase in the price of gold on the world market in recent months. At the same time, when the price of gold goes down, do you think that the Chinese Ministry of Finance will say that our “gold reserves have fallen”? No, we will never hear that

[WillyAp]

Chinese statistics are the new meme, apparently Perfect example : official statement - “gold reserves increased by 6.3 billion dollars”. The average person thinks that China bought 6.3 billion dollars in gold reserves. But the reality is as follows: as there were 72.8 million ounces in the reserves, so it remained.

Market news are as refreshing as always:
China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi

    Chinese equities trail global ones for a fourth year running
    CSI 300 Index is near the lowest level since early 2019

The article is from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/china-s-6-5-trillion-stock-rout-worsens-economic-peril-for-xi
You wish to read it without paywall, click here:  https://archive.ph/jfoJQ

[DrBeer]

China is trying its last-ditch effort to save the economy... And the methods can hardly be called “saving”, it is more like “postponing the problem”, or postponing the problem to a future period.

“China is considering next week approving the issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) of additional debt over the next few years to revive its fragile economy, Reuters reports"

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/reaction-reuters-report-chinas-stimulus-plans-2024-10-29/

What do you think - what can the increase in government debt lead to, against the backdrop of huge corporate debt of Chinese companies, and huge debts of Chinese households ?

[WillyAp]

What do you think - what can the increase in government debt lead to, against the backdrop of huge corporate debt of Chinese companies, and huge debts of Chinese households ?

The only thing which starts to change a economic outcome is the American way of hand out to the only group which fires up an economy.
The consumer.

Unfortunately the Chinese similar to other leaderships concentrate on the ones who appear in the reports: Investors.   
The issue in China, as seen from the outside, is the group of people who where promised study hard and get a good well payed job. Something the US screwed up due to their student loans. The countries youth does not wish to eat pain

To answer your question, the increase leads to more debt on State level, no issue.
Should the government panic, Taiwan is their exit to that.

[DrBeer]

What do you think - what can the increase in government debt lead to, against the backdrop of huge corporate debt of Chinese companies, and huge debts of Chinese households ?

The only thing which starts to change a economic outcome is the American way of hand out to the only group which fires up an economy.
The consumer.

Unfortunately the Chinese similar to other leaderships concentrate on the ones who appear in the reports: Investors.   
The issue in China, as seen from the outside, is the group of people who where promised study hard and get a good well payed job. Something the US screwed up due to their student loans. The countries youth does not wish to eat pain

To answer your question, the increase leads to more debt on State level, no issue.
Should the government panic, Taiwan is their exit to that.

It seems that the Chinese leadership continues to stick to the line of “show numbers in the economy”, as for example was the case with the real estate market where they lent, built, demolished what was built and repeated this cycle to inflate “beautiful” indicators of economic growth... And it seems that now it is a continuation of the same useless game, instead of finding solutions to real problems - among which is the breakdown of relations with Western markets, and inadequate games in the next “great empire” ...

[DrBeer]

We can long beautifully describe the power of the Chinese economy, but....

According to the results of August, all key indicators of the Chinese economy disappointed investors who expected more positive figures. Fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate further aggravation of problems.
Industrial production grew by the lowest since March 4.5 percent in annualized terms (in July - 5.1 percent), while experts expected growth of 4.7 percent. The agro-industrial complex and ferrous metallurgy sagged strongly.
Against this background, unemployment rose to the maximum since February this year 5.3 percent (July - 5.2 percent, June - 5 percent). Fixed asset investment growth fell from 3.6 percent to 3.4 percent, with real estate repeating July's result of minus 10.2 percent.
Retail sales showed a result of plus 2.1 percent against July data of 2.7 percent and forecast of 2.6 percent. Thus, the dynamics of the main components that make up the national GDP suggests the possibility of failure to fulfill the growth targets of five percent by the end of the year without additional support measures from the authorities.
Experts do not see any obvious opportunities for China to quickly improve its business. First of all, this is hindered by the ongoing capital outflow, which cannot be slowed down either through promises or regulatory policy. No matter how much the Chinese government tries to make a “pretty face” and draw beautiful indicators, it does not succeed in hiding the reality. It seems to be time to withdraw the rest of your capital from China, as it is possible that your money may be expropriated by China.....