What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?

[Botnake]

They say the biggest reason why the market is bullish right now is the "Bitcoin Spot ETF," which is driving institutional investors into the market. At the moment, we’re already seeing bullish momentum. If we compare this movement to past bull runs, hitting $100k seems possible, especially since the new ATH would be above $73k, which is pretty close to that target. And you’re right, the holiday season is also a big factor. That's why most of the previous bull runs happened during the last quarter of the year, with peak prices usually reached between December and January.

[DirtyKeyboard]

This can be done better than just by guessing

We can ask: if the price moved very similarly to the daily movements in the last month or so, how likely is it to reach 100.000$?

I took the price movements between September 22 and October 23, 2024 from investing.com, fed them into a Python script and calculated the probability to reach $100,000 parting from a start price of $66,000 in 68 days (those missing until December 31, 2024: the remaining 7 days in October, 30 for November and 31 for December).

With 10,000 simulations, I got the following probability starting from $66,000: 3,62 %

I wondered if changing the start price to 67,500 would change the probability. And yes it did, at least a bit: 4,77 %

If we change the start price to 69,000, it increased to 7,18%, so it almost doubled compared to a $66k start price.


A bit more info about how this script worked: It's actually quite simple:

- Create a list of the daily price changes from Sept. 22 to Oct. 23. Each item has the same probability.
- With the python function random.choice(), you can select a random element from that list.
- Now you start at day 0 with the start price. Each day, you apply the random price increase from the list mentioned before. Then you walk through the days of the simulation (68) repeating this process.
- If until the end of this simulation the price has reached $100,000 you increase a counter by 1.
- The result is the number of the counter divided by the number of simulations. For example, when I did 10k simulations starting at 66k, in 362 of them it reached $100k, so the probability is 3,62%.

That's cool!  double edit: I happen to have just done the wrong thing.  I tracked what the price would be on Jan 1. Oopsie.  

Using a list of the last 12 years, and one day left on my cursor trial. There are a few days of missing data in the early years.  In those few cases I just repeated the price (volume weighted daily average) for no gain or loss.

I totally stole your idea, but decided to use percent change from day to day and randomly pick from that list.

edit: With much more probably less relevant input I went with 1,000,000 runs for each.  ATQ = actual thread question.  Quite the historically bullish investment we have here.
With 10,000 simulations, probability starting from $66,000: 17.73 % on Jan 1, 2025
1,000,000 17.42 % on Jan 1, 2025

ATQ  25.02% before Jan 1, 2025

start price to 67,500: 19.82 % on Jan 1, 2025
1,000,000 19.55 % on Jan 1, 2025

ATQ 28.17 % before Jan 1, 2025


start price to 69,000: 22.35%  on Jan 1, 2025
1,000,000 21.76 % on Jan 1, 2025

ATQ 31.21 % before Jan 1, 2025

Edit 3: Now this makes sense at least.
Now for all the marbles (not really)  1 million runs, 68 days, starting price $100,000: 68.64%

[pooya87]

There is always a chance that we can see the real bull run begin and price to reach $100k which is not a hard thing because it is very close. $100k is only about 40% above the previous ATH.

But the problem is that we have very volatile couple of months ahead of us regarding the economy. The global tensions are rising and there is an election in the US which can get violent if Trump doesn't win! similar to what happened last time he lost.
There is also the problem with the energy market and the interest rates/inflation. For example oil market has been going crazy over the past 2 months. It crashed to $69 / barrel then soared high as $80 and then came down to $73 and is rising back up to $75+ again! That's a highly volatile and unstable market that can get much worse if tensions grow more specially in West Asia (oil rich region). That means higher inflation and they could raise interest rates again which could crash bitcoin price even if the bull run begins.

So my answer to your question is the chances are low. The uncertainty that this kind of economic situation creates discourages people from making such investments into something like bitcoin.

[Awaklara]

What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?  I think there are good chances. Because , we have holiday season coming in USA in December and thus more and more inflows will come directly in crypto and also in ETF. Currently, there is only Bitcoin ETF in market and thus prices of bitcoin are expected to grow faster than other coins.

October is coming to an end and I'm not so sure the end of this month will be closed very well by Bitcoin. maybe we will still be around the current price range, or at least close to the previous ATH.
regarding the end of the year, we all hope for an increase, but don't expect it to reach $100k. if the market growth can be maintained with this trend until the beginning of the year, maybe Q1 next year we will still be in a bull trend. so it is very possible that we will reach $100k in the next period, not this year.

[LogitechMouse]

What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?  I think there are good chances. Because , we have holiday season coming in USA in December and thus more and more inflows will come directly in crypto and also in ETF. Currently, there is only Bitcoin ETF in market and thus prices of bitcoin are expected to grow faster than other coins.

I'll make a prediction just now.
If Bitcoin somehow surpass its previous ATH of around $73,000 by the end of this month, I believe that we will see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of this year. If that doesn't happen then it will not reach it.

The results of the USA election might have some effect towards the price movement of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin during the month of December tends to be bullish for most of the time. The reality is that there are no catalysts right now that can push the price of Bitcoin up towards the $100,000 price. There is no good news, there are no events that could push the price of Bitcoin up. We know that there's always a chance for everything especially with cryptocurrency, but right now, the chance of this to happen will be low. I will be surprised if it will be reaching 6 digits this year.

[aoluain]

Unfortunately, ZERO. It's been on a downtrend, and the pump momentum is over. I don't believe it will ever reach a $100K valuation.
It's all about AI these days; Bitcoin is old news.

Very true! Bitcoin has been on a downtrend . . . . . . . . . . . for about 5 days! as per your screenshot
Since 2009 Bitcoin has been on an uptrend and it continues today, we dont need a 5 day snapshot
of a chart to see this.

It was said back in in day Bitcoin wouldnt hit

$10 - but it did in 2012
&100 - but it did in 2013
$1,000 - but it did in 2017
$10,000 - but it did in 2017
$50,000 - but it did in 2021

MeGold666 there is a trend here - can you spot it?

[TravelMug]

What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?  I think there are good chances. Because , we have holiday season coming in USA in December and thus more and more inflows will come directly in crypto and also in ETF. Currently, there is only Bitcoin ETF in market and thus prices of bitcoin are expected to grow faster than other coins.

October is coming to an end and I'm not so sure the end of this month will be closed very well by Bitcoin. maybe we will still be around the current price range, or at least close to the previous ATH.
regarding the end of the year, we all hope for an increase, but don't expect it to reach $100k. if the market growth can be maintained with this trend until the beginning of the year, maybe Q1 next year we will still be in a bull trend. so it is very possible that we will reach $100k in the next period, not this year.

We are still in the positive side if I'm not mistaken, but still very far from the bull run that we are expecting. Nevertheless, as we have seen we have a new all time high before the halving because of the hype on Bitcoin ETF.

And this could have disrupted the cycle flow of Bitcoin in my opinion. That's why it will take some time for us to reach a new all time high. The highest we got is $70k, that is the closest so far. Again, might hard to see how the flow will go this year or this bull run.

But there are still plenty of time for us to reach $100k, but I do not see it happening at the end of 2024.

[Yaunfitda]

What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?  I think there are good chances. Because , we have holiday season coming in USA in December and thus more and more inflows will come directly in crypto and also in ETF. Currently, there is only Bitcoin ETF in market and thus prices of bitcoin are expected to grow faster than other coins.

I'll make a prediction just now.
If Bitcoin somehow surpass its previous ATH of around $73,000 by the end of this month, I believe that we will see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of this year. If that doesn't happen then it will not reach it.

Most likely we might not reach a new all time high at the end of this month. Although there are a lot of promises when we hit $69k and I thought that it might continue to go and maybe at least $70k. But it was too much as the market goes on another correction.

The results of the USA election might have some effect towards the price movement of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin during the month of December tends to be bullish for most of the time. The reality is that there are no catalysts right now that can push the price of Bitcoin up towards the $100,000 price. There is no good news, there are no events that could push the price of Bitcoin up. We know that there's always a chance for everything especially with cryptocurrency, but right now, the chance of this to happen will be low. I will be surprised if it will be reaching 6 digits this year.

I'm also on the same belief as you, the US presidential election could be a good catalyst and who knows, there are prediction that if Trump wins, the market could at least be very well on the $90k-$92k price. But let's get get excited here, 2-3 week if I'm not mistaken before the US election. And we can only hope for the best that whoever will win, it might trigger a huge parabolic rise for the market.

[d5000]

That's cool!  double edit: I happen to have just done the wrong thing.  I tracked what the price would be on Jan 1. Oopsie.  

Using a list of the last 12 years, and one day left on my cursor trial. There are a few days of missing data in the early years.  In those few cases I just repeated the price (volume weighted daily average) for no gain or loss.

Very interesting, thanks to expand the concept!

So even if we almost universally can agree that the stretch from September 22 to October 23 (2024 of course) was a quite bullish one, it was still significantly more bearish than the whole development of the Bitcoin price in the last 12 years, as your probabilities are about 5 times higher than mine ...

Of course it would be interesting to have some intermediate values. My "short timespan" is perhaps too short as it is only a single "bullish leg", while your 12 year timespan is perhaps too long because it includes the wild swings of 2010-13 when the price could increase 20% in a single day without problems

The ideal list of values would be perhaps the series since the 2022 low of 15,500. If you can load them into your script I'd be interested in the results (Otherwise I may search for the data and feed them into my script. I've used a short timespan because I was compiling the list manually, but of course it can be modified to load CSV files.

Another idea would be to use the complete run from late 2018 to late 2021, to have data about "a full Bull market" with already lower volatility than in Bitcoin's early days.

[AmoreJaz]

What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?  I think there are good chances. Because , we have holiday season coming in USA in December and thus more and more inflows will come directly in crypto and also in ETF. Currently, there is only Bitcoin ETF in market and thus prices of bitcoin are expected to grow faster than other coins.

October is coming to an end and I'm not so sure the end of this month will be closed very well by Bitcoin. maybe we will still be around the current price range, or at least close to the previous ATH.
regarding the end of the year, we all hope for an increase, but don't expect it to reach $100k. if the market growth can be maintained with this trend until the beginning of the year, maybe Q1 next year we will still be in a bull trend. so it is very possible that we will reach $100k in the next period, not this year.

We are still in the positive side if I'm not mistaken, but still very far from the bull run that we are expecting. Nevertheless, as we have seen we have a new all time high before the halving because of the hype on Bitcoin ETF.

And this could have disrupted the cycle flow of Bitcoin in my opinion. That's why it will take some time for us to reach a new all time high. The highest we got is $70k, that is the closest so far. Again, might hard to see how the flow will go this year or this bull run.

But there are still plenty of time for us to reach $100k, but I do not see it happening at the end of 2024.

Reaching that level has been the aim of a lot of holders and spectators. But before reaching such level, much better to have plans on what you can have in this market. So you are prepared when that period comes. If you are just waiting without doing anything, then, that moment will be useless, right?

[JeffBrad12]

I see so many people are pretty pessimistic with BTC reaching $100k mark before the end of 2024, truth is, it could reach that mark within a week if the market is willing.
latest rally should give insight to people that the price could just pump out of the blue. it doesn't need month for BTC to rise from $58k to $69k it just needs few days. just imagine the scenario where the price got pumped not because institutional investors being the one that put massive buy orders but the retailer as well (instead of shorting BTC everytime it reaches higher highs) BTC could easily pull off $100k within a week.

what BTC need is good news, momentum, and hype for it to happen.

[DirtyKeyboard]

>edit<
The ideal list of values would be perhaps the series since the 2022 low of 15,500. If you can load them into your script I'd be interested in the results (Otherwise I may search for the data and feed them into my script. I've used a short timespan because I was compiling the list manually, but of course it can be modified to load CSV files.

Another idea would be to use the complete run from late 2018 to late 2021, to have data about "a full Bull market" with already lower volatility than in Bitcoin's early days.

Here we go. 
I went with 68 days again for consistency. 1000000 runs a piece.

15957.38, 2022-11-21 -
67556.71, 2024-10-24
Starting: $66,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 6.27%

Starting: $67,500
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 8.23%

Starting: $69,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 10.61%

3171.72, 2018-12-15 -
67482.75, 2021-11-09
Starting: $66,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 32.64%

Starting: $67,500
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 35.75%

Starting: $69,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 38.97%
Even more bullish than the all time history! 

[Pandu Geddon]

I see so many people are pretty pessimistic with BTC reaching $100k mark before the end of 2024, truth is, it could reach that mark within a week if the market is willing.
latest rally should give insight to people that the price could just pump out of the blue. it doesn't need month for BTC to rise from $58k to $69k it just needs few days. just imagine the scenario where the price got pumped not because institutional investors being the one that put massive buy orders but the retailer as well (instead of shorting BTC everytime it reaches higher highs) BTC could easily pull off $100k within a week.

what BTC need is good news, momentum, and hype for it to happen.

Everyone must realize that Bitcoin can move very fast. the target price of $100k is very possible to achieve, if the positive trend gradually comes. what is worried by some people who are not sure that it can happen in the near future is the possibility of Bitcoin price moving sideways. therefore Bitcoin may be stronger and there will be not much price movement. and it is very possible that Bitcoin will reach $100k by taking a longer time. a pump with a short time will always be followed by concerns about a decline afterwards. because the highest price position may not have enough strength.

[Baofeng]

I see so many people are pretty pessimistic with BTC reaching $100k mark before the end of 2024, truth is, it could reach that mark within a week if the market is willing.
latest rally should give insight to people that the price could just pump out of the blue. it doesn't need month for BTC to rise from $58k to $69k it just needs few days. just imagine the scenario where the price got pumped not because institutional investors being the one that put massive buy orders but the retailer as well (instead of shorting BTC everytime it reaches higher highs) BTC could easily pull off $100k within a week.

what BTC need is good news, momentum, and hype for it to happen.

Everyone must realize that Bitcoin can move very fast. the target price of $100k is very possible to achieve, if the positive trend gradually comes. what is worried by some people who are not sure that it can happen in the near future is the possibility of Bitcoin price moving sideways. therefore Bitcoin may be stronger and there will be not much price movement. and it is very possible that Bitcoin will reach $100k by taking a longer time. a pump with a short time will always be followed by concerns about a decline afterwards. because the highest price position may not have enough strength.

How about the US election next month? Could this be the news that we all have been waiting for the price of Bitcoin to move very fast? For me, it could be specially if the one that we thought could be a pro-Bitcoin President will be elected in the White House, again. I wouldn't say that it's taking a long time. I mean, we still have the whole year of 2025 to do that.

And yeah, for sure pumps are here, but we have seen that it is not sustainable in the long run. It could be the trend though, as we have seen, reaching $68k-$69k and then followed by a sudden decline. Now look at the price movement, we gained and I wouldn't be surprised if before the end of the month we will be in the range again.

[Marvell1]

I see so many people are pretty pessimistic with BTC reaching $100k mark before the end of 2024, truth is, it could reach that mark within a week if the market is willing.
latest rally should give insight to people that the price could just pump out of the blue. it doesn't need month for BTC to rise from $58k to $69k it just needs few days. just imagine the scenario where the price got pumped not because institutional investors being the one that put massive buy orders but the retailer as well (instead of shorting BTC everytime it reaches higher highs) BTC could easily pull off $100k within a week.

what BTC need is good news, momentum, and hype for it to happen.

It can happen but things are harder than you think so people are not too optimistic and a little worried is understandable. You cannot rely on past growth performance to apply to the future, because you need to know that bitcoin is getting bigger and that means growth performance will slow down gradually.
Things have become very different, bitcoin price is much higher and its capitalization has reached trillions of dollars. You cannot expect it to grow 50% or 100% in a short period of time because we are talking about growth in trillions of dollars, not just a few hundred million or a few billion dollars.


Likewise, do you still see bitcoin growing 10x or 20x in the most recent cycles? Simply because it is more mature and the higher the capitalization, the slower the growth rate. That is the law of finance.

[krishnaverma]

What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?  I think there are good chances. Because , we have holiday season coming in USA in December and thus more and more inflows will come directly in crypto and also in ETF. Currently, there is only Bitcoin ETF in market and thus prices of bitcoin are expected to grow faster than other coins.

I  actually don't think Bitcoin is going to be able to hit that mark by the end of the year if I'm being realistic.
Dont get me wrong the price of Bitcoin will surely go up which is a fact and the odds will most likely be in Bitcoin's favour if trump wins the upcoming election(that is if he keeps to his promises)but I don't think that will still be enough to take Bitcoin up to a 100k mark. the year is almost ending so I don't think that is enough time for Bitcoin to reach it

You are saying that Trump winning the elections will also not be able to push prices to that mark ? That is not correct in my opinion. If he wins the election, we will see a huge jump in bitcoin prices. That might be greater than the past records already set by bitcoin. I do not suggest anyone to invest based on that speculation though. One should invest in bitcoin only if he loves the concept of crypto and thinks that crypto is something that is solving some problems. If bitcoin can remain relevant for long time, it is obvious that the investors will be rewarded.

[STT]

Now is not the time to be negative as we have been increasingly positive in the last day weeks and months.  If it was only one time frame it would be idle talk but I believe in a bull run added by a bull whip which is I mean to say a chain of change leading to larger movements.

  If you are not familiar with a bull whip then dominoes, a series of changes in that way it cant be only one piece.   There is a fair sequence now and a hope of accumulating enough movement to pass the 70k ceiling which has contained BTC for so long this year.

I doubted 100k in 2024 myself but somewhere like now would be where it starts.   I didnt especially  think there's enough time but its dangerous to say that about BTC when it can move so fast.   See if we can maintain the lows of this week as support for higher, that could be a key foot hold.

[d5000]

[...]

Thank you!

What we're doing here is basically Monte Carlo simulations, and an user in the German subforum who's quite knowledgeable in financial analysis / stastistics told me the idea isn't that bad ...

Even more bullish than the all time history!

I guess this is because in this timeframe we only observe the bullish phase in the 2018-21 cycle. All time history includes also the sharp bear markets in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and the long crypto winter around 2015.

However, I think if we think that we're currently in a mid-term bullish phase, it is appropiate to chose a bullish timeframe.

Now we can combine the whole idea with Elliot Wave theory, at least with the basics. My theory is that since March 2024 we're currently near the end of a slightly descending bearish phase inside of a larger-scale bull market. In the "bullish five waves" model (see Wikipedia article on the Elliott Wave principle), we can thus say that we're either near the end of wave 2 or wave 4.

We could now insert the data for 2021 corresponding to these waves:

- Wave 2 lasted roughly from June 2019 to March 2020. However, it includes the well known "Covid dip", which we can consider an anomaly and perhaps ignore.
- Wave 4 lasted roughly from May 2021 to September 2021.

Of course we should not use only the bearish data of these timeframes but instead look a little bit "ahead", as I wrote I think we're near the end of the bearish minor wave, but we can't say that for certainty until the 73k are broken again.

So the idea would be the following:

- Analyze the 6 months between January 2020 to June 2020 (end of wave 2, start of wave 3).
- Analyze the 6 months between July 2021 until December 2021 (which already includes a slight part of the bear market which follows).

Another idea is to assume that we have already seen the local bottom (e.g. when the price dipped to 49/50k) of the wave and that we're already inside the following bullish wave. This would mean to analyze, for example:

- the 6 months between April 2020 and October 2020 (I chose April instead of March to avoid the Covid dip)
- the 6 months between September 2021 and March 2022.

I'll later try out myself but if you want of course you (or anyone else) can feed your/their script with the data for these timeframes.

[DirtyKeyboard]

Enter start date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2020-04-01
Enter end date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2020-10-31
Number of days to simulate: 67
Starting price: 66968
Number of simulations: 420000
Number of simulations reaching $100,000 or more: 96103
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 22.88%

Enter start date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2021-09-01
Enter end date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2022-03-31
Number of days to simulate: 67
Starting price: 66968
Number of simulations: 420000
Number of simulations reaching $100,000 or more: 35948
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 8.56%

Here is the mostly AI/LLM written code with user suggestions, I mean stolen ideas, I mean inspirational ideas  

Code:

import pandas as pd
import random

# Read the CSV file into a DataFrame
# Get user inputs for date range
start_date = input("Enter start date (YYYY-MM-DD): ")
end_date = input("Enter end date (YYYY-MM-DD): ")

# Read the CSV file into a DataFrame
df = pd.read_csv("C:/PyProjects/Predictor/result_with_timestamp.csv")

# Filter the DataFrame based on the user-defined date range
df = df[(df['Date'] >= start_date) & (df['Date'] <= end_date)]

# Calculate the percent change between days
df['Percent_Change'] = df['Price'].pct_change() * 100

# Create a list of percent changes, dropping the first NaN value
percent_changes = df['Percent_Change'].dropna().tolist()

# Print the first few percent changes to verify
print(percent_changes[:5])



# ... (keep the existing code for reading and processing the CSV file) ...

# Create a list of percent changes, dropping the first NaN value
percent_changes = df['Percent_Change'].dropna().tolist()



# ... (keep the existing code for reading and processing the CSV file) ...

# Get user inputs
days = int(input("Number of days to simulate: "))
starting_price = float(input("Starting price: "))
number_of_simulations = int(input("Number of simulations: "))



wins = 0

for sim in range(number_of_simulations):
    # Initialize the price list with the starting price for each simulation
    prices = [starting_price]
    reached_100k = False

    # Simulate price changes
    for _ in range(days):
        percent_change = random.choice(percent_changes)
        new_price = prices[-1] * (1 + percent_change / 100)
        prices.append(new_price)
        
        # Check if price has exceeded 100,000 at any point
        if new_price > 100_000 and not reached_100k:
            reached_100k = True
            wins += 1

    # Print the results
    print(f"\nSimulation {sim + 1}:")
    print(f"Final price after {days} days: ${prices[-1]:.2f}")
    print(f"Total change: {((prices[-1] - starting_price) / starting_price * 100):.2f}%")
    print(f"Reached $100,000: {'Yes' if reached_100k else 'No'}")

print(f"\nNumber of simulations reaching $100,000 or more: {wins}")
print(f"Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: {(wins / number_of_simulations) * 100:.2f}%")

Here is the csv of historical daily volume weighted average prices from bitstamp that I am working with.  I was lucky enough to get it from a now defunct website, and currently update it using data.bitcoinity.com.  https://pastebin.com/3C67XqKW  

Next changes should be to record the highest and lowest price reached during simulation run.

[GigaBit]

Our expectations are high for the upcoming bull market but the market is again slightly decline. But the common purpose behind it is the US presidential election. Regardless of the current situation, many issues are hanging on the outcome of this election. Especially the stage of world politics may change. That is why the price of Bitcoin is now at a stable level. But if the result is not in Trump's favor, Bitcoin may be bearish again. But I think since the expected bull run after the Bitcoin ETF trade and halving has not started yet today or tomorrow Bitcoin will definitely hit the top. With Trump in power at this point, we could see a Bitcoin bull run very quickly. As the election time approaches,  Investors are getting worried.