Daily fundamental and technical analysis of forex

[capitalstreetfx1]

Daily Forex Analysis – Forex Markets Mixed as Dollar Weakens, Euro and Yen Hold Steady.​
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Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary​

Major currency pairs traded with mixed momentum on Friday as the US Dollar weakened amid growing concerns about the US labor market. The Euro and Pound held steady, supported by central bank commentary, while the Yen faced modest pressure due to soft domestic data. The Canadian Dollar remained underpinned by firm demand, with traders awaiting key employment releases later in the day.​

Market Overview​

The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure following data showing a surge in job cuts across American companies. Signs of a cooling labor market have fueled expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, weighing on the Greenback. Meanwhile, the Euro and Pound held firm despite cautious sentiment, while the Yen and Canadian Dollar traded in tight ranges ahead of economic updates. Overall, markets remain focused on monetary policy trajectories from the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks.​

Technical Summary (Compact Table)​

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Analyst Commentary per Asset​

EUR/USD – Supported by Weak U.S. Labor Data​
The EUR/USD pair holds near 1.1540 as weak U.S. labor data continues to weigh on the Greenback. The Challenger Job Cuts report showed a significant rise in layoffs, prompting traders to increase bets on a December Fed rate cut. The Euro remains stable amid comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who signaled comfort with current interest rate levels. Technically, the pair faces resistance at 1.1711, while a break below 1.1514 could accelerate downside momentum.

Outlook: Bearish bias remains intact; rallies toward 1.1580 may attract selling pressure.
shared-image-2025-11-07T135302.159.png​

GBP/USD – Dovish BoE Outlook Weighs on the Pound​

GBP/USD retreats toward 1.3100 following a dovish stance from the Bank of England. Although rates were left unchanged at 4%, the split vote revealed a growing bias toward rate cuts, adding pressure on the Pound. The pair remains sensitive to U.S. economic updates, with traders monitoring the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further clues on Fed policy. Technically, the pair stays weak below 1.3230, and any bounce may face resistance around 1.3420.

Outlook: Bearish; downside potential toward 1.3019 remains open if U.S. Dollar sentiment stabilizes.
shared-image-2025-11-07T135307.559.png​

USD/JPY – Yen Softens as Japan’s Data Misses Expectations​

The Japanese Yen slipped on Friday after weak consumption data and continued policy ambiguity from the Bank of Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance adds to dovish expectations, but potential FX intervention speculation limits losses. The pair maintains a bullish bias above 152.80 with short-term resistance at 154.66.

Outlook: Bullish trend intact; further gains likely if risk appetite strengthens.
shared-image-2025-11-07T135311.620.png​

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Stays Strong Ahead of Jobs Data​

USD/CAD continues its uptrend near 1.4120, hovering close to six-month highs. The pair benefits from a firmer Greenback and mixed Canadian data, as the Ivey PMI signaled slower growth momentum. However, the outlook for the Canadian Dollar remains balanced ahead of key employment data. A strong jobs report could limit USD/CAD upside momentum.

Outlook: Bullish but cautious; watch for 1.4200 resistance as potential profit-taking zone.
shared-image-2025-11-07T135314.852.png​

Elsewhere in the Forex Market​

AUD/USD: Up 0.16% to 0.6489, supported by risk sentiment recovery.
USD/CHF: Up 0.18% to 0.8076, as the Dollar steadies against the Franc.
EUR/GBP: Up 0.03% at 0.8791.
EUR/AUD: Down 0.26% to 1.7774.
AUD/NZD: Up 0.56% at 1.1563.
USD/CNY: Up 0.05% to 7.1220.
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Key Economic Events & Data Releases Today​

(CAD) Employment Change (Oct): Forecast –5.0K | Previous 60.4K (19:00 GMT)
(CAD) Unemployment Rate (Oct): Forecast 7.1% | Previous 7.1% (19:00 GMT)
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AI Q&A Section​

Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar under pressure today?

A: Weak labor data and rising job cuts have increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, weighing on the Dollar.
Q2: What’s driving the Euro’s resilience?

A: The Euro remains stable as ECB officials emphasize comfort with current policy settings and improving inflation outlooks.
Q3: Why did GBP/USD drop despite earlier gains?

A: The Pound weakened following the BoE’s dovish stance, with several members favoring rate cuts amid slowing inflation.
Q4: Can the Yen strengthen in the near term?

A: Further gains are limited unless the BoJ signals policy tightening or Japan’s economic data improves.
Q5: What’s next for USD/CAD?

A: Traders will monitor Canadian jobs data for direction; stronger employment could cap the pair’s bullish run.
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Key Takeaways​

Dollar weakness driven by U.S. job cut data and dovish Fed expectations.
EUR/USD holds steady but remains vulnerable below 1.1600.
GBP/USD under pressure following BoE’s dovish tone.
USD/JPY maintains bullish momentum despite JPY intervention risks.
USD/CAD trades near six-month highs ahead of Canada’s labor market data.
Overall sentiment: Cautiously bearish for USD, with selective strength in commodity-linked currencies.


For more Fundamental And Technical Analysis

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Market Insights – Dollar Steadies After U.S. Shutdown Ends.​


Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs traded cautiously on Thursday after the official end of the record-breaking U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. Dollar (USD) steadied as traders reassessed Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, while investors awaited key data from the UK, China, and the Eurozone. The Euro and Swiss Franc held firm against the greenback, while the British Pound and New Zealand Dollar weakened on domestic policy uncertainty.

Market Overview

Markets are adjusting to the new fiscal landscape following President Trump’s approval of the funding bill that officially ended the 43-day U.S. government shutdown. The resolution has bolstered overall risk appetite, yet the U.S. Dollar remains under mixed pressure due to conflicting signals from Federal Reserve policymakers.

Recent labor market data painted a weaker picture of the U.S. economy, with ADP and Challenger reports both signaling increased job losses. However, hawkish comments from Fed officials have tempered expectations of a near-term rate cut, keeping traders cautious. In Europe, the Euro holds steady as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain policy rates, while the British Pound trades lower ahead of critical UK GDP data. Meanwhile, risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi remain under pressure due to weak domestic fundamentals and global uncertainty.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)

Pair   Trend   RSI   Sentiment   Key Levels (Support / Resistance)   Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD   Bullish   51.38   Buy   S1: 1.1514 / R1: 1.1711   Buy Limit 1.1590 → TP 1.1637 / SL 1.1566
GBP/USD   Bearish   39.63   Sell   S1: 1.3094 / R1: 1.3423   Sell Limit 1.3171 → TP 1.3080 / SL 1.3236
NZD/USD   Bearish   39.44   Sell   S1: 0.5688 / R1: 0.5812   Sell Limit 0.5691 → TP 0.5628 / SL 0.5729
USD/CHF   Bearish   43.55   Neutral   S1: 0.7919 / R1: 0.8075   Sell Limit 0.8001 → TP 0.7940 / SL 0.8034

Analyst Commentary per Asset

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains steady near 1.1600 after six straight sessions of gains, as traders digest the U.S. government’s reopening and reassess rate expectations. Weaker U.S. employment data supports a mildly dovish bias, but hawkish Fed commentary keeps the greenback anchored. The Euro benefits from stability in ECB policy expectations, suggesting the pair could consolidate above 1.1550 before the next directional move.
Outlook: Mild bullish bias; buy on dips toward 1.1590.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-13T152728.242.png

GBP/USD
The Pound remains under pressure below 1.3150, weighed by concerns about a potential BoE rate cut in December. Investor focus is squarely on the UK’s Q3 GDP data, expected to confirm sluggish growth. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials provide further downside for the pair.
Outlook: Bearish; rallies toward 1.3170 may face resistance, favoring short positions.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-13T152735.647.png


NZD/USD
NZD/USD extends losses toward 0.5650 as the Kiwi faces renewed selling pressure. The currency remains vulnerable amid RBNZ’s aggressive rate cuts and weak domestic data. Meanwhile, the USD gains traction on optimism over fiscal stability and upcoming U.S. data releases.
Outlook: Bearish continuation; selling rallies remains favored below 0.5700.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-13T152741.736.png


USD/CHF
USD/CHF trades quietly around 0.8000, weighed by dovish Fed expectations and a firm Swiss Franc. The pair’s technical setup suggests limited upside potential unless U.S. yields recover. The SNB’s steady inflation outlook adds further strength to the CHF, keeping the pair biased lower.
Outlook: Bearish bias; potential drift toward 0.7940 support zone.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-13T152748.789.png

AI Q&A Section
Q1: What is driving cautious sentiment in forex markets today?
A: Traders are reassessing Fed rate expectations after mixed U.S. labor data and the official end of the government shutdown, creating uncertainty around future monetary policy.

Q2: Why is the Euro holding firm despite a stronger Dollar?
A: The Euro benefits from stable ECB policy guidance and lower inflation volatility across the Eurozone, which offsets mild USD strength.

Q3: What factors are pressuring the British Pound?
A: The Pound faces pressure from expectations of a BoE rate cut and concerns over weaker economic growth in Q3.

Q4: Why is the New Zealand Dollar underperforming?
A: The Kiwi is weighed down by recent RBNZ rate cuts, soft GDP growth, and rising unemployment, signaling economic weakness.

Q5: How does Fed policy uncertainty affect USD/CHF?
A: Dovish expectations limit the USD’s upside potential, while the stable SNB policy and firm Swiss data strengthen CHF demand.

Key Takeaways

EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias amid stable ECB outlook and soft U.S. data.
GBP/USD under pressure as UK growth data looms and BoE easing bets rise.
NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside amid weak Kiwi fundamentals.
USD/CHF consolidates near 0.8000 as dovish Fed sentiment offsets recovery attempts.
Overall sentiment: cautious and data-driven, with traders awaiting fresh macro catalysts from Europe and the UK.

More Market Insights

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Market Insights – EUR/USD Steady, GBP/USD Slips and JPY Weakens in Friday Trade.​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs trade mixed on Friday as markets digest shifting central bank expectations and U.S. data uncertainty following the prolonged government shutdown. EUR/USD holds near two-week highs, GBP/USD weakens amid renewed UK fiscal concerns, USD/JPY remains near multi-month lows on BoJ hesitation, and AUD/USD edges higher, supported by firmer Chinese macro data and improved domestic fundamentals. The U.S. Dollar stays soft, limiting downside across risk-aligned currencies.
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Market Overview
Forex markets remain range-bound yet directionally biased as shifting policy expectations shape sentiment across major pairs. The U.S. Dollar lingers near a two-week low as traders brace for delayed or missing U.S. economic data, placing greater weight on FOMC remarks for policy clarity. Eurozone GDP and Chinese economic releases influence broader FX flows, while UK fiscal concerns pressure GBP/USD ahead of the November budget. Meanwhile, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike continue to fade, weighing heavily on the Yen. Commodity currencies find support from improved risk appetite and China’s latest economic prints.
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Analyst Commentary per Asset
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EUR/USD – Bullish Bias
EUR/USD holds near 1.1635 after Thursday’s rally, supported by ongoing Dollar weakness and diverging policy expectations between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Markets assign a roughly 50% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, while ECB is expected to remain on hold through next year—reinforcing relative EUR strength. A break above the 50-day SMA remains the key trigger for fresh bullish momentum. Traders now await Eurozone Q3 GDP and statements from FOMC officials for directional cues.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 1.1603
Take Profit: 1.1668
Stop Loss: 1.1569
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-14T145404.047.png

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GBP/USD – Bearish Bias
GBP/USD drifts toward 1.3150 after the UK government dropped plans to raise income-tax thresholds, raising concerns about fiscal stability ahead of the November 26 budget. Weak UK data has reinforced expectations for a December Bank of England rate cut, amplifying downside pressure. However, Dollar softness limits deeper losses for now. Traders remain cautious as U.S. data disruptions could influence near-term Dollar movements.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 1.3186
Take Profit: 1.3027
Stop Loss: 1.3259
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-14T145415.441.png

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USD/JPY – Strong Bullish Bias
USD/JPY trades near a nine-month high as markets lower expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Comments from Prime Minister Takaichi and government officials reinforce the preference for continued low rates, while warnings from Japanese authorities hint at possible intervention if volatility increases. The USD’s softness prevents sharper upside, but the structural trend remains favorable for USD/JPY bulls.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 153.56
Take Profit: 156.01
Stop Loss: 152.23
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-14T145422.074.png
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AUD/USD – Neutral to Bearish Bias
AUD/USD edges higher supported by Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data and Australia’s strong labor market. However, mixed Chinese figures and concerns over the RBA’s restrictive policy stance keep upside limited. The pair trades cautiously as U.S. Dollar softness provides short-term support.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 0.6556
Take Profit: 0.6497
Stop Loss: 0.6595
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-14T145425.690.png
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AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the US Dollar weakening despite the end of the government shutdown?
A: Uncertainty around missing economic data and doubts about the strength of U.S. growth have kept USD under pressure.
Q2: What key level must EUR/USD break to extend its rally?
A: EUR/USD must clear the 50-day SMA decisively for renewed bullish momentum.
Q3: Why is GBP/USD struggling even as the USD weakens?
A: UK fiscal credibility concerns and expectations of a December BoE rate cut weigh heavily on Sterling.
Q4: Is intervention likely in USD/JPY?
A: Japanese authorities have hinted at intervention if volatility increases, but immediate action seems unlikely unless sharp one-way moves accelerate.
Q5: What is the main risk for AUD/USD traders today?
A: Mixed Chinese data—strong consumer activity but weaker industrial performance—may cause intraday volatility.
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Key Takeaways
USD remains weak due to uncertainty surrounding delayed U.S. macro data.
EUR/USD retains bullish momentum but needs a break above the 50-day SMA.
GBP/USD pressured by UK fiscal uncertainty and softer economic outlook.
USD/JPY supported by BoJ’s dovish stance, keeping the yen near multi-month lows.
AUD/USD lifted by Chinese data but overall trend remains mixed.
Markets await Eurozone GDP and key global releases for next directional moves.

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Analysis – Forex Market Drops as USD Strengthens Before Key Data.​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs are trading under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens on fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut. With traders pricing in only a 49% probability of easing—down sharply from last week—risk-sensitive currencies such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD continue to weaken. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains supported by Fed policy divergence and persistent uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s tightening outlook. Market sentiment now hinges on upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls and UK–EU inflation data.

Market Overview

Currencies are moving cautiously as global markets shift their attention to key policy cues from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. The USD remains the outperformer amid rising skepticism about near-term rate cuts, while the Euro and Pound face headwinds from weak economic momentum and data sensitivity ahead of inflation prints. The Australian Dollar is pressured by global risk aversion and soft equities, whereas the Japanese Yen continues to struggle as BoJ policy direction remains unclear despite verbal intervention risks. Traders await imminent US labor data and UK/EU CPI releases to reassess near-term policy trajectories.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)


(Based on provided technicals — update with live charts before publishing)

Pair   RSI   Trend Bias   Key Support   Key Resistance   Trade Signal
EUR/USD   47 (Neutral)   Bearish   1.1514   1.1711   Sell below 1.1611
GBP/USD   40 (Neutral)   Bearish   1.3094   1.3423   Sell below 1.3190
AUD/USD   42 (Neutral)   Bearish   0.6465   0.6610   Sell below 0.6503
USD/JPY   68 (Bullish)   Bullish   148.65   154.66   Buy above 154.80

Analyst Commentary Per Asset

EUR/USD – Bearish Bias Persists Below 1.1600
EUR/USD remains weak, consolidating near 1.1580 as the USD strengthens on receding Fed rate-cut expectations. The pair is unable to reclaim the 1.1600 handle amid softer Eurozone outlook and cautious ECB sentiment. With markets awaiting Nonfarm Payrolls, downside risks persist unless a significant miss pulls rate-cut probabilities higher.

Trade Plan:

Limit Sell: 1.1611
TP: 1.1542
SL: 1.1655
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-19T142713.487.png

GBP/USD – Pound Softens Ahead of Critical UK CPI Data
GBP/USD trades near 1.3130, pressured by firm USD demand and rising expectations of a December BoE rate cut if inflation softens further. With UK CPI, PPI, and RPI due today, volatility is likely to spike. A dovish read could push GBP/USD toward key support near 1.3090.

Trade Plan:

Limit Sell: 1.3190
TP: 1.3083
SL: 1.3261
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-19T142717.901.png

AUD/USD – AUD Slips as Risk Sentiment Deteriorates
AUD/USD weakens following a global equity pullback tied to stretched AI valuations and risk-off flows. Despite steady wage growth and more balanced RBA policy tone, the AUD remains sensitive to global risk appetite. Support sits at 0.6465, and a failure to hold this region could invite further losses.

Trade Plan:

Limit Sell: 0.6503
TP: 0.6465
SL: 0.6525
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-19T142725.393.png

USD/JPY – Yen Remains Weak Amid BoJ Policy Ambiguity
USD/JPY trades near multi-month highs, supported by strong yield differentials and Fed–BoJ policy divergence. Intervention risks persist, but markets remain doubtful without a clear shift in BoJ stance. A sustained breakout above 154.80 opens the path toward 156.69.

Trade Plan:

Limit Buy: 154.80
TP: 156.69
SL: 153.70
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-19T142728.880.png

AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the USD strengthening even when economic data is mixed?
A: Markets focus on policy expectations. Recent Fed commentary suggests hesitation toward cutting rates, strengthening USD despite softer data.

Q2: What will move EUR/USD next?
A: The September US Nonfarm Payrolls report. A strong reading reduces rate-cut odds further → EUR/USD downside.

Q3: Can GBP/USD recover if UK CPI beats expectations?
A: Yes. Higher-than-expected CPI reduces BoE rate-cut probability, supporting GBP.

Q4: Why is AUD/USD so sensitive to equities?
A: AUD is a risk-linked currency tied to global commodity cycles and equity sentiment. Risk-off = AUD weakness.

Q5: Will Japan intervene to support the Yen soon?
A: Intervention is possible but unlikely without extreme volatility. A clearer BoJ policy shift is required for sustained Yen strength.

Key Takeaways
USD strengthens as December Fed rate-cut odds fall to 49%.
EUR/USD stays pressured below 1.1600 ahead of NFP.
GBP/USD traders await UK CPI for direction.
AUD/USD weakens on global equity sell-off and risk aversion.
USD/JPY remains strong but sensitive to intervention risks.
Major market drivers today: UK CPI, EU CPI, US labor data, FOMC minutes.


Daily More Market analysis - Capital Street FX

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Analysis – Forex Markets Cautious .as Dollar Strengthens Before NFP. - 20/11/2025

Headlines & Market Snapshot
Major FX pairs are trading cautiously on Thursday as the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Shifting central bank expectations—particularly from the Fed, BoE, RBNZ, and PBOC—are keeping risk sentiment fragile. EUR/USD continues to slide toward 1.1500, GBP/USD attempts a mild recovery, NZD/USD stabilizes above 0.5600, and USD/CAD holds firm as oil prices weaken.


Market Overview
The broader forex market remains defensive as traders brace for the delayed US NFP report, which is set to heavily influence rate-cut expectations for December. The Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a five-month high, reflecting fading odds of Fed easing. Meanwhile, the Pound remains under pressure from rising BoE dovish expectations, the Kiwi struggles amid concerns of RBNZ cuts, and the Canadian Dollar weakens due to softer crude prices. Market volatility is expected to rise sharply once the NFP data is released.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)
PairRSITrend BiasKey SupportKey ResistanceTrade Signal
EUR/USD39.83 (Bearish)Downtrend1.1514 / 1.14541.1711 / 1.1772Sell below 1.1555
GBP/USD35.37 (Bearish)Downtrend1.3094 / 1.29931.3423 / 1.3524Sell below 1.3143
NZD/USD33.07 (Bearish)Downtrend0.5688 / 0.56500.5812 / 0.5850Sell below 0.5637
USD/CAD56.51 (Bullish)Uptrend1.3919 / 1.38741.4066 / 1.4111Buy above 1.4012

Analyst Commentary Per Asset

EUR/USD — Bearish Direction Continues Toward 1.1500
EUR/USD remains under heavy pressure as the Dollar strengthens further, driven by collapsing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The pair trades near a two-week low, weighed down by hawkish FOMC minutes and cautious market sentiment ahead of NFP. The Euro receives no meaningful support from regional data, keeping downside momentum intact.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 1.1555
Take Profit: 1.1484
Stop Loss: 1.1603


https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-20T152545.787.png



GBP/USD — Mild Uptick but Overall Bias Remains Bearish
The Pound is attempting a limited rebound after Wednesday’s sharp drop, driven by markets pricing an 85% probability of a December BoE rate cut. Softer UK CPI and weakening labor data have reinforced expectations of policy easing. Upcoming UK Retail Sales and PMI data may add further volatility.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 1.3143
Take Profit: 1.2998
Stop Loss: 1.3250

https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-20T152556.824.png



NZD/USD — Holds Above 0.5600 After PBOC Maintains Rates
NZD/USD trades mildly higher near 0.5605, supported by steady PBOC policy. However, downside risks remain elevated as markets expect RBNZ rate cuts amid rising unemployment and slowing domestic demand. The upcoming US NFP report will determine whether the pair can sustain gains or revert lower.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 0.5637
Take Profit: 0.5576
Stop Loss: 0.5680

https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-20T152601.546.png


USD/CAD — Firm Above 1.4050 as Oil Prices Drop
USD/CAD remains steady as markets await US employment data. Weaker crude prices—following reports of a possible US proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict—are weighing on CAD. Fed rate-cut expectations have sharply reduced, supporting the USD in the short term.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 1.4012
Take Profit: 1.4147
Stop Loss: 1.3937

https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-20T152605.730.png




AI Q&A Section (5 Questions & Answers)
Q1: Why is the US Dollar strengthening ahead of NFP?
A: Traders expect NFP to provide clarity on Fed policy. With rate-cut expectations falling, capital is flowing into the Dollar.
Q2: What happens to EUR/USD if NFP beats expectations?
A: A strong NFP print would likely push EUR/USD below 1.1500 and deepen the bearish trend.
Q3: Why is the Pound under pressure despite today’s recovery?
A: Markets are heavily pricing a December BoE rate cut due to easing inflation and rising unemployment.
Q4: What could shift momentum in NZD/USD?
A: A weaker-than-expected NFP report could pull the USD lower and support a short-term Kiwi rebound.
Q5: How sensitive is USD/CAD to oil markets right now?
A: Very sensitive. Any declines in crude—Canada’s key export—add immediate bullish pressure to USD/CAD.

Key Takeaways
 

US Dollar strength remains the dominant theme as markets await NFP.
EUR/USD continues to slide, with bearish technicals aligning with macro pressure.
GBP/USD rebounds slightly but remains fundamentally bearish due to BoE rate-cut expectations.
NZD/USD trades cautiously as markets anticipate RBNZ easing.
USD/CAD is supported by weakening oil prices and reduced Fed easing bets.
Volatility expected to spike after the US employment report release.

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Weekly Outlook: USD Strength Pressures EUR, GBP & AUD.​
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Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major forex pairs are trading cautiously this week as mixed U.S. economic data casts uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy direction. The U.S. Dollar strengthened broadly, supported by solid labor market figures and fading expectations of a December rate cut. Meanwhile, EUR/USD hovers near multi-week lows, GBP/USD extends losses ahead of the UK Autumn Budget, AUD/USD remains pressured by weaker commodity sentiment, and USD/JPY continues to track bullish momentum despite intervention risks. Markets now shift their attention to a heavy data docket from the U.S., Eurozone, UK, Australia, and Japan, keeping near-term volatility elevated.
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Market Overview
FX markets remain in consolidation mode as traders digest a mix of U.S. data—including stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls, softer PMI readings, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy trajectory. Divergent domestic fundamentals drove varied performances across major currency pairs. The Dollar remained resilient as yield support persisted, while European and UK data offered little relief to their respective currencies. The week ahead brings a cluster of high-impact releases, including German GDP, UK Autumn Budget, U.S. PPI, Retail Sales, and Core PCE—likely shaping directional moves into December.
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Technical Summary (Compact Table)
(Illustrative values based on your provided technicals — ready for live-data update before publishing.)
Pair   Trend Bias   RSI   Stochastic   Key Support Levels   Key Resistance Levels   Trade Setup
EUR/USD   Bearish   38.78 (Sell Zone)   30.38 (Sell)   1.1514 / 1.1454   1.1711 / 1.1772   Sell 1.1551 → TP 1.1468 → SL 1.1597
GBP/USD   Bearish   39.31 (Neutral)   31.55 (Sell)   1.3094 / 1.2993   1.3423 / 1.3524   Sell 1.3122 → TP 1.3060 → SL 1.3166
AUD/USD   Bearish   40.01 (Neutral)   14.83 (Neutral)   0.6465 / 0.6421   0.6610 / 0.6654   Sell 0.6476 → TP 0.6414 → SL 0.6519
USD/JPY   Bullish   65.59 (Buy Zone)   86.63 (Buy)   148.65 / 146.80   154.66 / 156.51   Buy 155.78 → TP 158.04 → SL 154.48
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Analyst Commentary Per Asset
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EUR/USD – Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Prevails as Data Fails to Inspire
EUR/USD spent the week under pressure, retreating toward 1.1500 as U.S. data offered mixed signals but kept the Dollar broadly supported. Labor market updates, including a stronger NFP print of 119K, failed to trigger sustained volatility but reinforced a cautious environment. European data lacked momentum, and with Germany’s heavy calendar—including GDP, IFO, Retail Sales, and HICP—Eurozone fundamentals remain fragile. EUR/USD remains locked in a sell-biased structure unless the Fed softens its tone or European data surprises strongly to the upside.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-56.jpg
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GBP/USD – Outlook: Sterling Remains a Sell-on-Rallies Setup Ahead of UK Budget
GBP/USD resumed its downward trajectory as broad USD strength and UK fiscal concerns pressured the currency. Softer UK CPI, weak retail sales, and uncertainty around the Autumn Forecast Statement weighed on sentiment. Traders remain defensive, with the US Dollar favored ahead of high-impact U.S. data and Nvidia earnings. With markets reducing expectations of early Fed cuts and the UK facing fiscal constraints, GBP/USD continues to carry downside risk unless the upcoming Budget delivers unexpected fiscal support.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-22T162807.642.png
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AUD/USD – Outlook: Aussie Weakens as Strong USD Caps Recovery Attempts
AUD/USD attempted gains early in the week on the back of improved domestic PMIs, but the recovery quickly faded as the U.S. Dollar regained strength. Weaker commodity sentiment—especially iron ore—also limited upside potential. Markets are now awaiting RBA meeting minutes and key U.S. data to gauge near-term direction. Unless the RBA adopts a hawkish stance, AUD/USD remains vulnerable to further declines driven by U.S. yield support.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-22T162810.801.png
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USD/JPY – Outlook: Bullish Momentum Holds, but Intervention Risks Rising
USD/JPY saw volatile swings as Japanese officials issued warnings about excessive Yen weakness, yet intervention fears did little to alter the broader bullish trend. The pair remains supported by elevated U.S. yields, a strong Dollar, and delayed expectations for a BoJ rate hike. Japan’s stimulus package further pressured the Yen. While upside remains favored, traders must watch for potential intervention-triggered dips, particularly near multi-month highs.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-22T162814.063.png
​
AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the USD staying strong even with mixed data?
A: Because U.S. yields remain elevated and markets have sharply reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut.
Q2: Is EUR/USD likely to break below 1.1450 soon?
A: Only if Eurozone data disappoints and the U.S. Dollar extends its yield-driven momentum—both plausible scenarios.
Q3: What could cause a rebound in GBP/USD?
A: A fiscally supportive UK Budget or significantly weaker U.S. data could trigger short-term Sterling recovery.
Q4: Is AUD/USD undervalued at current levels?
A: Fundamentally, AUD remains pressured by soft domestic demand and weaker commodity markets, so valuation may stay depressed.
Q5: Will Japan intervene in the FX market soon?
A: Intervention is possible if moves turn disorderly, but verbal warnings are the preferred first step.
​
Key Takeaways


The U.S. Dollar remains broadly supported as traders scale back Fed rate-cut expectations.

EUR/USD hovers near November lows, awaiting a heavy German data calendar.

GBP/USD remains pressured by UK fiscal concerns ahead of the Autumn Budget.

AUD/USD struggles to recover as stronger USD and weak commodities limit upside.

USD/JPY retains bullish momentum but faces rising intervention risks from Japanese authorities.

A high-impact global data week lies ahead, likely shaping end-of-month volatility across major pairs.

Daily Market Analysis Update - Capital Street FX

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Analysis – Major Forex Pairs Steady as Fed Cut Bets Drive Market Mood. - 28/11/2025.​

Headlines & Market Snapshot

Major currency pairs are trading cautiously as shifting expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut continue to shape market sentiment. The US Dollar remains under pressure, supporting gains in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while USD/JPY holds in consolidation and AUD/USD trims gains despite strong domestic inflation data. Risk sentiment stays mixed ahead of global inflation releases and GDP prints.
​
Market Overview

FX markets remain sensitive to evolving interest rate expectations, with traders positioning for a potential December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The latest CME FedWatch data reflects an 87% probability of a 25 bps cut—up sharply from last week—placing downward pressure on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, political developments around the next Fed chair and strong inflation readings from the Eurozone, Japan, and Australia are adding layers of complexity to directional flows. EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to benefit from USD softness, while USD/JPY trades within a narrowing range as fiscal concerns and intervention risks limit downside. AUD/USD sees two-way movement as strong domestic price data tempers dovish RBA expectations.
​
Technical Summary Table — Major Currency Pairs

Pair   RSI   Stochastic   MA Bias (10/20/50)   Sentiment   Direction   Key Levels (R1/S1)
EUR/USD   50.31 (Bullish)   60.67   Bullish / Bullish / Bearish   Bullish   Buy   R1: 1.1711 / S1: 1.1514
GBP/USD   52.32 (Bullish)   88.13   Bullish / Bullish / Bearish   Neutral   Buy   R1: 1.3423 / S1: 1.3094
USD/JPY   62.29 (Bullish)   66.56   Bullish / Bullish / Bullish   Bullish   Buy   R1: 154.66 / S1: 148.65
AUD/USD   53.47 (Bullish)   65.93   Bullish / Bullish / Bullish   Neutral   Sell   R1: 0.6610 / S1: 0.6465
​
Analyst Commentary Per Asset
​
EUR/USD — Outlook: Bullish

EUR/USD trades near 1.1590 after easing from a three-day rally. USD stabilisation is limiting intraday upside, but expectations for a December Fed rate cut—currently priced at 87%—continue to favor the Euro. ECB Minutes indicating no immediate need for further easing provide mild underlying support. With inflation trending toward target and economic conditions stabilising, EUR/USD maintains upward bias.

Trade Suggestion:
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-28T134059.287.png
Limit Buy: 1.1565
Take Profit: 1.1613
Stop Loss: 1.1541
\

​
GBP/USD — Outlook: Buy Bias

GBP/USD trades near 1.3240, extending a seven-session winning streak. USD weakness amid rate-cut speculation supports the pair, while domestic market focus shifts to the UK’s newly released fiscal outlook. The larger-than-anticipated £22B fiscal buffer stabilised sentiment despite softer growth projections. Pound momentum remains constructive.

Trade Suggestion:
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-28T134105.221.png
Limit Buy: 1.3191
Take Profit: 1.3328
Stop Loss: 1.3124
​
USD/JPY — Outlook: Bullish

USD/JPY trades in a consolidation band but retains bullish momentum due to rising JGB yields driven by Japan’s worsening fiscal profile. BoJ tightening expectations and potential intervention limit downside, while a softening USD caps upside. The pair remains supported above key moving averages, with a gradual upward bias intact.

Trade Suggestion:
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-28T134122.761.png
Limit Buy: 155.12
Take Profit: 157.40
Stop Loss: 153.82

​
AUD/USD — Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish
AUD/USD trims intraday gains despite a sixth day of overall advance. Stronger-than-expected inflation and rising private sector credit reinforce expectations of steady RBA policy, reducing rate-cut probabilities. USD softness provides support, but AUD bulls face resistance as RBA hike expectations remain uncertain.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shared-image-2025-11-28T134128.440.png


​
AI Q&A
1. Why is the US Dollar losing momentum this week?
Because an 87% probability of a December Fed rate cut is priced in, reducing USD yield appeal and pressuring the currency.
2. Why is EUR/USD showing strength despite limited Eurozone growth?
Dovish Fed expectations outweigh Eurozone risks, improving relative yield flows toward the Euro.
3. Could USD/JPY see direct intervention from Japan soon?
Yes—if volatility spikes or USD/JPY approaches extreme highs, Japan may intervene to limit Yen depreciation.
4. Is GBP/USD supported by the UK Budget release?
Yes—the unexpectedly large £22B fiscal buffer stabilised sentiment and supported Sterling.
5. Why did AUD/USD fail to hold intraday gains?
Traders are reassessing the RBA outlook after strong inflation but remain cautious given soft domestic growth signals.
​
Key Takeaways

Markets are increasingly pricing in a December Fed rate cut, heavily influencing USD direction.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD maintain upward momentum due to broad US Dollar weakness.

USD/JPY remains supported but capped as fiscal concerns and intervention risks balance each other.

AUD/USD faces mixed signals as strong inflation meets cautious RBA guidance.

Short-term FX volatility will likely increase ahead of German inflation, Japanese PMI, and US consumer data.

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Traders on Alert: Dollar Slides While Majors Approach Technical Trigger Points.​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs start the week with a cautiously bullish tone as a softer US Dollar, shifting central bank expectations, and high-impact global data releases drive early market direction. EUR/USD regains upward momentum above 1.1600, GBP/USD holds firm on UK budget optimism, USD/JPY weakens amid BoJ hawkish signals, and AUD/USD retreats slightly after disappointing Chinese PMI data. Divergent monetary outlooks remain the central driver for forex flows.
​

Market Overview

Currency markets open the week with mixed but active sentiment as traders adjust positions ahead of key US ISM and PMI releases. The US Dollar remains under pressure as expectations for a December Fed rate cut strengthen, while regional fundamentals shape individual currency moves. EUR gains support from firm ECB outlook, GBP steadies amid UK fiscal updates, JPY strengthens on rising BoJ tightening bets, and AUD corrects lower after weak Chinese data but finds support from strong domestic inflation readings.
​
Technical Summary (Compact Table)

Major Currency Technical Overview
Pair   RSI   Stochastic   Trend Bias   Support Levels   Resistance Levels   Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD   54.24 (Bullish)   65.75 (Neutral)   Bullish   S1: 1.1503 / S2: 1.1458   R1: 1.1646 / R2: 1.1690   Buy @ 1.1585 → TP 1.1633, SL 1.1563
GBP/USD   53.95 (Bullish)   83.69 (Neutral)   Neutral–Bullish   S1: 1.3070 / S2: 1.3009   R1: 1.3268 / R2: 1.3329   Buy @ 1.3189 → TP 1.3286, SL 1.3145
USD/JPY   54.54 (Bullish)   54.39 (Neutral)   Neutral–Bearish   S1: 153.67 / S2: 152.48   R1: 157.55 / R2: 158.74   Sell @ 155.98 → TP 154.50, SL 156.75
AUD/USD   57.59 (Bullish)   76.76 (Neutral)   Bullish   S1: 0.6456 / S2: 0.6418   R1: 0.6577 / R2: 0.6615   Buy @ 0.6542 → TP 0.6566, SL 0.6531
​
Analyst Commentary Per Pair
​
EUR/USD — Bullish Tone Strengthens

EUR/USD resumes its ascent above 1.1600 as dovish Fed expectations pressure the USD. Markets are pricing in a December rate cut with confidence, keeping DXY near a two-week low. The euro gains further support from ECB stability signals, with policymakers unanimously backing steady rates and ruling out additional cuts in 2025. A decisive break above the 50-day SMA could extend the pair’s one-week uptrend. Traders now watch US ISM and Eurozone PMI for near-term direction.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-67.jpeg

GBP/USD — Supported by UK Fiscal Outlook

GBP/USD trades steady around 1.3230 after the UK Autumn Budget lifted near-term economic sentiment. Upgraded OBR growth projections for 2025–2027 help cushion downside risks. Meanwhile, Fed rate-cut expectations—currently priced at 87% for December—keep USD gains limited. Dovish remarks from Waller and Daly reinforce expectations of easing. The pair maintains a neutral-bullish bias heading into US PMI releases.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-2025-12-01T154121.485.png
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USD/JPY — JPY Strengthens on BoJ Hawkishness

The Yen extends its two-week high after BoJ Governor Ueda signals a potential rate hike, lifting Japanese yields to multi-year highs and narrowing the US–Japan rate differential. Meanwhile, USD attempts a mild rebound but remains weighed down by expectations of a December Fed cut. The stark policy divergence keeps the bias tilted in favor of JPY. Market focus now shifts to US ISM data for intraday direction.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-2025-12-01T154125.482.png
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AUD/USD — Pullback After Weak China PMI

AUD/USD eases below 0.6550 as weaker Chinese manufacturing data (PMI 49.9 vs 50.5 expected) weighs on sentiment. However, strong Australian inflation and RBA Governor Bullock’s rejection of rate-cut discussions provide underlying support. A softer USD continues to favor upside recovery, but momentum is temporarily capped by China-linked weakness. Traders watch US PMI and upcoming PCE inflation data later in the week.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-2025-12-01T154128.521.png
​
AI Q&A — Top 5 Trader Questions
1. Will EUR/USD continue higher if US data comes in weak?
Yes—weak US PMI would reinforce Fed rate-cut bets and likely push EUR/USD toward 1.1650+.
2. What could push GBP/USD above 1.3300?
A combination of softer US data plus stronger-than-expected UK PMI or economic sentiment.
3. Why is USD/JPY biased to the downside despite bullish indicators?
BoJ’s hawkish stance and rising Japanese yields outweigh USD technical strength.
4. Is AUD/USD still bullish even after China’s PMI miss?
Yes—domestic inflation strength and a dovish Fed still favor upside, unless China data worsens further.
5. What is the biggest risk for forex markets this week?
A surprise upside in US PMI or inflation, which could reduce expectations for a December Fed cut.
​
Key Takeaways

USD remains broadly soft as markets increasingly price in a December Fed rate cut.
EUR/USD maintains bullish structure above 1.1600 with ECB stability supporting sentiment.
GBP/USD stays resilient on UK fiscal improvements and USD weakness.
USD/JPY remains pressured as BoJ tightening expectations boost the Yen.
AUD/USD corrects lower but stays bullish overall thanks to RBA signals and USD softness.
US ISM PMI and PCE inflation data will be the week’s primary volatility triggers.

More Expert Market Insights

[capitalstreetfx1]

Forex Analysis – Forex Markets Steady as Traders Await Key US PCE Data.​
Headlines & Market Snapshot
Major currency pairs are extending their advance on Friday as traders shift to a cautious, wait-and-watch stance ahead of the highly anticipated US Core PCE inflation report. The US Dollar remains broadly offered as markets price in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, supporting gains in the Euro, Pound, Yen, and Aussie. Risk sentiment remains constructive, reinforcing USD weakness and favoring further upside in select major pairs.
​
Market Overview
FX markets are trading with a clear bullish tilt against the US Dollar, driven by dovish Fed expectations and improving global risk appetite. The Euro and Pound are holding steady near weekly highs, the Japanese Yen continues to gain strength on hawkish BoJ expectations, and the Australian Dollar extends an impressive multi-session rally backed by strong domestic data. With the US PCE Price Index set for release later today, traders remain cautious but positioned for potential USD softness if inflation aligns with expectations. Broader sentiment favors continued USD downside unless the PCE reading surprises to the upside.
​
Technical Summary Table (Compact)
Major FX Pairs – Key Technical Indicators
Pair   RSI   Stoch   Trend   Key Levels (R1 / S1)   Bias
EUR/USD   59.50 (Bullish)   87.37 (Buy Zone)   Strong Uptrend   1.1646 / 1.1502   Buy
GBP/USD   62.67 (Bullish)   89.91 (Buy Zone)   Strong Uptrend   1.3268 / 1.3070   Buy
USD/JPY   48.24 (Neutral)   20.80 (Sell Zone)   Weak/Turning Lower   157.55 / 153.67   Sell
AUD/USD   67.17 (Bullish)   97.27 (Overbought Buy Zone)   Strong Uptrend   0.6578 / 0.6456   Buy
​
Analyst Commentary by Asset
​
EUR/USD — Bullish Bias Holds as Traders Await US PCE
EUR/USD trades in the mid-1.1600s, supported by consistent buying interest and subdued USD momentum. Expectations of a Fed rate cut next week—priced at nearly 85%—keep the USD on the defensive. Meanwhile, the Euro is backed by confidence that the ECB has ended its easing cycle, with Lagarde reinforcing inflation stability near the 2% target. The pair’s breakout above the 100-day SMA strengthens the bullish setup.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 1.1626
TP: 1.1681
SL: 1.1601
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-2025-12-05T162138.265.png
GBP/USD — Bullish but Capped by BoE Rate-Cut Expectations
GBP/USD holds near 1.3330, steady but cautious as traders await US Core PCE data. While Fed rate-cut expectations support the pair, the Pound’s upside is limited by soft UK economic conditions and a 90% probability of a December BoE rate cut. Technicals remain supportive above 1.3300, but momentum could stall if PCE surprises higher.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 1.3272
TP: 1.3409
SL: 1.3203
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-2025-12-05T162143.265.png
​
USD/JPY — Yen Strength Persists Ahead of PCE
USD/JPY continues to slide toward multi-week lows as markets price in a potential BoJ rate hike. Rising JGB yields and hawkish comments from Governor Ueda keep the Yen supported despite weak household spending data. With risk sentiment cautious and the USD soft, the downside bias remains intact unless PCE disrupts expectations.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 154.93
TP: 153.61
SL: 155.66
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-2025-12-05T162146.816.png
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AUD/USD — Aussie Extends an 11-Day Rally
AUD/USD pushes toward 0.6620, driven by strong Australian household spending and renewed RBA hawkish expectations. Governor Michele Bullock’s warning on inflation has encouraged speculation of further tightening. With Fed easing expectations supporting risk assets broadly, AUD/USD remains the strongest performer among major FX pairs.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 0.6598
TP: 0.6660
SL: 0.6562
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/shared-image-2025-12-05T162149.159.png
​
AI Q&A — Top 5 Trader Questions
1Will the US PCE data change today’s USD trend?
If PCE matches expectations, USD weakness is likely to continue. A hotter reading could trigger a short-term rebound in the USD.
2EUR/USD positioned for a breakout above 1.1700?
Yes. Technical momentum and fundamentals favor continued upside, but confirmation requires a soft PCE print.
3Why is GBP/USD struggling despite USD weakness?
Expectations of faster BoE rate cuts are limiting Sterling’s upside relative to other majors.
4USD/JPY likely to break below 154.00?
Yes, if PCE is soft and BoJ continues signaling normalization, a break below 154.00 becomes likely.
5AUD/USD becoming overbought?
Momentum is stretched (Stoch > 97), but fundamentals support further upside unless risk sentiment reverses.
​
Key Takeaways


USD remains pressured as markets price in a high probability of a Fed rate cut next week.

EUR/USD and AUD/USD lead FX gains, supported by strong fundamentals and bullish technicals.

GBP/USD stays bullish but capped by BoE rate-cut expectations.

USD/JPY continues lower as Yen strength builds on hawkish BoJ sentiment.

All focus is now on the US Core PCE inflation report — a potential turning point for short-term USD direction.