2025 Difficulty thread. Planning to make 2025 the last one I do.

[Nexus9090]

so mining is very tight at the moment.

How do you change that?

Unfortunately, I see this path becoming increasingly difficult. Mining will become more and more restricted.

Basically it has become a large commercial endeavor.

With a few people like me that scrounge a bit of profit and some hobbyists that mine at ck pool hoping to catch a block.

For home mining to work price would need to go to about 222k by years end and slowly rise from there.

I estimate that as a 1 in 10 chance at best.

You're right.

Home mining is becoming a thing for solo mining ventures only, mining for profit these days from home is almost unattainable.

With energy prices being what they are, especially in the UK where I am. The only way I can mine is solo and then only when the sun shines so my solar panels offset the running costs of my miners.

With it being winter here I'm literally down to running 1-2Th of miners due to running costs.

Mining has become too industrial for most and with the diff being what it is the odds are stacked against us.

It'll reach a threshold where mining for profit, even for industrial scale mining set-ups that it becomes unprofitable. We've not see any real advancement in ASIC performance for a long while, its just been trimming a few mW/TH off each device. Its not like a 2x performance boost or anything like that so even commercial scale mining will plateau with affordability.

I don't think we're too far away from that happening to be honest and if BTC dumps in value (which I've been expecting for a while), I can see a lot of the industrial scale farms just being forced to pull the plug.

I can see BTC dropping back to $75-85k before too long, which will mean a lot of industrial scale mining will stop being profitable, naturally this will affect the diff, but thankfully it'll then favor the smaller mining set-ups again.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   923602  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.6134%  (275 / 265.41 expected, 9.59 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 153712263898738 and 158101226230877
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9462% and +3.8286%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 26, 2025 at 1:41 AM  (in 11d 16h 2m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 26, 2025 at 10:26 AM  (in 12d 0h 47m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 16m 56s and 13d 21h 1m 16s

It's early but the diff has not collapsed which is likely to mean price will get better.

[joker_josue]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   923602  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.6134%  (275 / 265.41 expected, 9.59 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 153712263898738 and 158101226230877
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9462% and +3.8286%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 26, 2025 at 1:41 AM  (in 11d 16h 2m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 26, 2025 at 10:26 AM  (in 12d 0h 47m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 16m 56s and 13d 21h 1m 16s

It's early but the diff has not collapsed which is likely to mean price will get better.

You're doing this analysis because you've noticed that the large mining companies aren't selling; they're still holding their assets, keeping the machines running even with the devaluation. Is that the correct reasoning?

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   923602  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.6134%  (275 / 265.41 expected, 9.59 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 153712263898738 and 158101226230877
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9462% and +3.8286%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 26, 2025 at 1:41 AM  (in 11d 16h 2m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 26, 2025 at 10:26 AM  (in 12d 0h 47m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 16m 56s and 13d 21h 1m 16s

It's early but the diff has not collapsed which is likely to mean price will get better.

You're doing this analysis because you've noticed that the large mining companies aren't selling; they're still holding their assets, keeping the machines running even with the devaluation. Is that the correct reasoning?

exactly this and look at this chart.
one small flat spot of growth in the last 3 years.











we should dip or go flat and we don't

[joker_josue]

we should dip or go flat and we don't

That makes sense, I never thought about it that way.

But, as you've been closely following the development of the network's hash, you may have noticed that these patterns are common, right?

Thank you for bringing this perspective.

[alh]

It seems to me that with a 25% decline in the price of BTC, there must be some folks that are mining at an "operating loss" that weren't 60 days ago. It will be interesting to see how long that persists. I also wonder to what extent we see the impact of AI . Not in terms of actual mining, but rather where folks are deciding to invest their money. It would seem that there is big overlap in capital expenditure between BTC and AI since they are similar in infrastructure requirement. Cooling, electricity, internet access, largely unattended (on premises). Obviously there isn't any "home AI", there isn't any for BTC either (now).

Every mining operation has their own "squeal point" where they wonder if they should continue or try and get out.

[philipma1957]

this entire stretch for year now has been upwards and onwards even when we tanked price in 2022 diff just went flat.

margins in 2021 and early 2022 were great do diff did not dip when price tanked.

margins for 2025 were tight

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   924164  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.7377%  (837 / 847.70 expected, 10.7 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 150446847079797 and 151065935246832
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.1982% and -0.7917%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 26, 2025 at 4:14 PM  (in 8d 5h 32m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 26, 2025 at 5:42 PM  (in 8d 7h 0m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 49m 35s and 14d 4h 17m 44s

my small hosting setup cost 2400usd in power monthly to run.

I earn 0.00094 btc a day or  0.0286 btc a month

so that is 2650 in coin

I make 250 usd a month which sucks, but I have 2400x12=28,800 set aside to pay for an entire year without cashing a coin.

big guys have lower power costs than I do. but if they do not have s21xp's at 13watts a th they are close to being at a loss.

I think at our price of 89-93k miners can last a while.

the real hurt would be 70k for 3 months in a row.

btw we are at 3.8 cents a th which sucks

[lav_adam1]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Do you think it is still profitable to mine these days ? The cost of kWh is getting higher and higher.
Which miner would be still profitable at home, if any?

Thanks.

[philipma1957]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Do you think it is still profitable to mine these days ? The cost of kWh is getting higher and higher.
Which miner would be still profitable at home, if any?

Thanks.

None for most all people.

You need to have a power cost of 10 cents or less plus you need to want a space heater to justify mining at home and expecting profit.

Now there are some people with no power bill in an apartment.

So if they mine with a smaller miner and do not burn much more than 700 watts they could work out.

they would want a 1 board s19 miner modded to run on 120 volt.

the miner will do 25th and burn 700 watts or so.

25 x 3.5 cents is 87 cents a day.  this kind of miner cost about 375-400 bucks

so if you run it for 500 days with zero power cost you will be in profit. as 500 x .87 = 435 dollars.

[joker_josue]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Do you think it is still profitable to mine these days ? The cost of kWh is getting higher and higher.
Which miner would be still profitable at home, if any?

Thanks.

None for most all people.

You need to have a power cost of 10 cents or less plus you need to want a space heater to justify mining at home and expecting profit.

Now there are some people with no power bill in an apartment.

So if they mine with a smaller miner and do not burn much more than 700 watts they could work out.

they would want a 1 board s19 miner modded to run on 120 volt.

the miner will do 25th and burn 700 watts or so.

25 x 3.5 cents is 87 cents a day.  this kind of miner cost about 375-400 bucks

so if you run it for 500 days with zero power cost you will be in profit. as 500 x .87 = 435 dollars.

I happened to see this news story recently:
Americans are heating their homes with bitcoin this winter

According to the news report, many are investing $900 to purchase equipment to heat their homes and simultaneously mine Bitcoin.

Does this type of investment really pay off?
It has to have a really low energy cost.

[philipma1957]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Do you think it is still profitable to mine these days ? The cost of kWh is getting higher and higher.
Which miner would be still profitable at home, if any?

Thanks.

None for most all people.

You need to have a power cost of 10 cents or less plus you need to want a space heater to justify mining at home and expecting profit.

Now there are some people with no power bill in an apartment.

So if they mine with a smaller miner and do not burn much more than 700 watts they could work out.

they would want a 1 board s19 miner modded to run on 120 volt.

the miner will do 25th and burn 700 watts or so.

25 x 3.5 cents is 87 cents a day.  this kind of miner cost about 375-400 bucks

so if you run it for 500 days with zero power cost you will be in profit. as 500 x .87 = 435 dollars.

I happened to see this news story recently:
Americans are heating their homes with bitcoin this winter

According to the news report, many are investing $900 to purchase equipment to heat their homes and simultaneously mine Bitcoin.

Does this type of investment really pay off?
It has to have a really low energy cost.

this a complex question.

there are a lot of ways to heat your house in the USA.

I know homes that have electric heat only and it costs big money.

These people all should use BTC miners for heat.

But of course it is hard to explain it to a senior citizen housing complex using electric radiators.

I tried to promote this in a 150 home complex a few miles from me and got no where a few years ago.

They all would have done well if they listened but I simply could not make headway with them.

For me it paid every winter to run miners for some heat until this time.

As margins are terrible and my gas furnace is cheaper to run.

[alh]

I kinda wonder if there maybe some type "electricity bidding war" in the future. Bitcoin mining obviously, but AI is now a major force to be reckoned with. There are multiple AI centric data centers under construction around the US, and more planned in the future. Then there is the traditional commercial and residential load, along with eclectic vehicle. Obviously some of that can be "time shifted" to lower demand, but I wouldn't expect that AI will want to go that way.

We have seen areas when Bitcoin mining can be "load shed" if there is an incentive, and excess electricity later. I wonder if the available pool will shrink substantially in the next decade.

[philipma1957]

I kinda wonder if there maybe some type "electricity bidding war" in the future. Bitcoin mining obviously, but AI is now a major force to be reckoned with. There are multiple AI centric data centers under construction around the US, and more planned in the future. Then there is the traditional commercial and residential load, along with eclectic vehicle. Obviously some of that can be "time shifted" to lower demand, but I wouldn't expect that AI will want to go that way.

We have seen areas when Bitcoin mining can be "load shed" if there is an incentive, and excess electricity later. I wonder if the available pool will shrink substantially in the next decade.

Its a good question. I do know China was building a super dam hydropower due to go online has enoguh power to run all the btc network and more to boot. I did a post somewhere about it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medog_Hydropower_Station


60,000 megwatts an hour.

a megawatt is 1000 kwatts

1000 kwatts can do 250 s21xps

so 60,000x250=15,000,000 s21xps

way more than all the miners running now.

[NotATether]

Why is it that my transactions somehow frequently get caught up in some network congestion as a result of some pools mining 6 blocks in the last 5 minutes or something?

Coincidence?

[philipma1957]

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   925189  (26 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.1806%  (1862 / 1916.02 expected, 54.02 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                            
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 148020763715066 and 148044878862455
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.7915% and -2.7757%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 11:06 PM  (in 1d 2h 21m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 11:09 PM  (in 1d 2h 24m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 41m 28s and 14d 9h 44m 52s



At notatether

If pools do 6 fast blocks that should unclog the pool not clog it

[joker_josue]

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   925189  (26 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.1806%  (1862 / 1916.02 expected, 54.02 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                            
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 148020763715066 and 148044878862455
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.7915% and -2.7757%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 11:06 PM  (in 1d 2h 21m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 11:09 PM  (in 1d 2h 24m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 41m 28s and 14d 9h 44m 52s



At notatether

If pools do 6 fast blocks that should unclog the pool not clog it

Don't you think the difficulty has decreased very little, considering the significant devaluation of Bitcoin that has occurred?

Basically, miners are mining based on earnings from a year ago, but with more hash rate required.

[Nexus9090]

-snip-

Don't you think the difficulty has decreased very little, considering the significant devaluation of Bitcoin that has occurred?

Basically, miners are mining based on earnings from a year ago, but with more hash rate required.

Yes, I agree. I was expecting a more noticeable drop in the hash rate. There must be a lot of systems running with free electric.

I guess, there's a delay in reaction. Just checked the global rate and its down to 887EH/s so a sharp fall this morning

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   925321  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.0660%  (1994 / 2033.32 expected, 39.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                            
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 149366896235994 and 149367235528331
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.9075% and -1.9072%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 8:02 PM  (in 0d 3h 44m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 8:02 PM  (in 0d 3h 44m 20s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 37m 32s and 14d 6h 37m 34s

so -1.9

a diff of 149.4 or so

it would be nice to get a price jump to 100k

but at least the diff drops a bit

http://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   925342  (37 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.2341%  (2015 / 2051.22 expected, 36.22 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                            
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 149622607225161 and 149622607865554
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7395% and -1.7395%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:27 PM  (in 0d 0h 10m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:27 PM  (in 0d 0h 10m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 2m 23s and 14d 6h 2m 23s

http://newhedge.io

Latest Block:   926198  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.1085%  (855 / 854.07 expected, 0.93 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Current Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 149468873467737 and 149552214629954
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1123% and +0.1681%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 8:11 PM  (-1.9506%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 10, 2025 at 7:49 PM  (in 8d 1h 17m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 10, 2025 at 7:57 PM  (in 8d 1h 24m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 38m 8s and 13d 23h 45m 23s

diff is flat and price is around 91.2k

http://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   926332  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.6309%  (989 / 1002.73 expected, 13.73 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Current Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 147331779556136 and 147837862787541
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.3191% and -0.9801%
Previous Retarget:   November 26, 2025 at 8:11 PM  (-1.9506%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 10, 2025 at 11:38 PM  (in 7d 4h 19m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 11, 2025 at 12:51 AM  (in 7d 5h 32m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 27m 13s and 14d 4h 39m 50s

We are down 1.3%, near halfway.

Price is at 93k+



still down around 3/4%

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   927058  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2093%  (1715 / 1728.67 expected, 13.67 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Current Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 148164190363140 and 148189348126605
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.7616% and -0.7447%
Previous Retarget:   November 26, 2025 at 8:11 PM  (-1.9506%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 10:48 PM  (in 2d 2h 30m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 10:52 PM  (in 2d 2h 33m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 37m 6s and 14d 2h 40m 41s

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   927182  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.6479%  (1839 / 1864.21 expected, 25.21 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                            
Current Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 147322659439025 and 147337710334653
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.3252% and -1.3151%
Previous Retarget:   November 26, 2025 at 8:11 PM  (-1.9506%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 12:45 AM  (in 1d 5h 52m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 12:48 AM  (in 1d 5h 54m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 34m 11s and 14d 4h 36m 19s

So price is around 92.8k and a small drop in diff

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   927791  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.1324%  (432 / 418.88 expected, 13.12 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                            
Current Difficulty:   148195306640204.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 149942604516972 and 152850122418026
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1791% and +3.1410%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 10:47 PM  (-0.7407%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 24, 2025 at 12:35 PM  (in 10d 15h 58m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 24, 2025 at 6:53 PM  (in 10d 22h 16m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 47m 41s and 13d 20h 5m 41s




Solid drop:

Latest Block:   927981  (20 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.4328%  (622 / 645.01 expected, 23.01 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                            
Current Difficulty:   148195306640204.7                            
Next Difficulty:   between 142916569413077 and 145392753030152
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.5620% and -1.8911%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 10:47 PM  (-0.7407%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 25, 2025 at 5:16 AM  (in 9d 18h 59m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 25, 2025 at 11:13 AM  (in 10d 0h 55m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 29m 11s and 14d 12h 25m 45s

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   928591  (24 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.5871%  (1232 / 1249.66 expected, 17.66 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                           
Current Difficulty:   148195306640204.7                           
Next Difficulty:   between 146105493084316 and 146417754197283
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.4102% and -1.1995%
Previous Retarget:   December 10, 2025 at 10:47 PM  (-0.7407%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 2:52 AM  (in 5d 11h 48m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 3:36 AM  (in 5d 12h 32m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 5m 14s and 14d 4h 48m 55s

we are a long way from the jump but still down a bit.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   929193  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.9765%  (1834 / 1852.97 expected, 18.97 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   149301205959699.9                           
Current Difficulty:   148195306640204.7                           
Next Difficulty:   between 146681302333605 and 146693516541306
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0216% and -1.0134%
Previous Retarget:   December 10, 2025 at 10:47 PM  (-0.7407%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 2:14 AM  (in 1d 6h 37m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 2:15 AM  (in 1d 6h 38m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 26m 46s and 14d 3h 28m 28s

small slip in hashrate

which would help as price is still bad

[joker_josue]

small slip in hashrate

which would help as price is still bad

I think this slight decrease in difficulty will be confirmed.

Despite everything, the difficulty hasn't decreased much, even though the price of Bitcoin has dropped considerably compared to what it was a month and a half ago.