Trump "pauses tariffs"

[paxmao]

Trump does not really know the consequences of this tariff hike for the American citizens since they export almost everything.
This is looking more funny as China choose not to back down increasing their own tariff. This is looking more serious and we never expected this much.

I guess he somewhat anticipated the outcome of the war but perhaps what surprised him was that China did not surrender and that made things worse than he thought. Trump underestimated Xi Jinping.

China does not import more of Americans goods but the Americans depends more on China which is why this is going to hit more for the US. The price of groceries are going to be more expensive soon with the 84% in tariff. Probably the prices of gadgets, raw material, clothes, groceries, and accessories will shoot up high if the two countries do not come to negotiation.

The current tariff Trump is imposing on Chinese goods is 145% and this will hurt both US consumers and Chinese businesses. People keep saying that China will be the loser because they export more but that also means that the US is also very dependent on Chinese goods. So with such high tariffs, if the government does not provide alternatives, American consumers will be the ones who suffer the most in this war. This would also negatively impact US GDP, not just China.

Consider having a hernia. If you have one, you go to the doctor to get it fixed. Depending on how bad it is, for some time after it is fixed there is pain. Same with correcting the corruption and inequities of foreign nations against the USA, and, of course, the USA against those other nations.

Once the corruption is corrected, things will work better than ever, even though the correcting process hurts a little.

This is funny, let's follow. Let's say you have a hernia and the doctor says that he is going to cut your arms and legs to fix it. "But doctor, the arms and legs are not related to hernia" and he goes "I am much smarted and this is the right solution".

The trade deficit of the US is not a big problem, but even if it is the problem is not tariffs or unfair play by others, it is the US lack of productivity, efficiency and advantages in many industrial production. That is what you would need to fix.

Meanwhile, this is not short term pain and long term gain, it is short, medium and long term pain for no gain + inflation as bonus.

[montaga]

His money masters been up to the usual tricks

Fake vs Real
https://youtu.be/M-TjGJ9bgKQ

[Fiatless]

His money masters been up to the usual tricks

Fake vs Real
https://youtu.be/M-TjGJ9bgKQ

The US voted for a businessman who has been indicted of various criminal offenses. I suspected that his cronies had pre information about of these inconsistency in tariff pronouncement. Currently, Trump and his team are secretly reducing the tariffs on some goods without publicly announcing it. Tariffs on iPhones imports from China have been reduced drastically. Meanwhile, the iPhone is the "single biggest Chinese export, and certainly the most high-profile finished good from tariffs." Who knows, they will keep reducing the tariffs on imports silently to cover up their mistakes. After all, they have made lots of money from the recent market manipulations.

Trump's iPhone olive branch is a significant trade war retreat

[franky1]

earlier this year chinese businesses started moving factory production to vietnam to evade chinas high tariffs set by trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0bqrf8LHw8

china is also avoiding tariffs by doing re-exporting/'washing' of chinese made goods, by sending goods to vietnam, get them re-labelled as made in vietnam and then send to america at vietnams cheaper rate
https://youtu.be/w0bqrf8LHw8?t=286

however due to the "pause" vietnam has negotiated with the US that part of its future tariff after the 90th day vietnam will in next 2 weeks structure a plan/method to control the re-export of chinese based goods. vietnam is trying to be a gate-keeper to avoid these re-export activities to stay onside with the US and get preferential rates
https://youtu.be/w0bqrf8LHw8?t=440

meanwhile as of 14th-18th april, china is doing some visits to vietnam and other countries to try to do some tariff bypass tricks..
https://youtu.be/w0bqrf8LHw8?t=545

this shows that china is not sitting back and ignoring trump, nor is china trying to wait it out. as previous realisations have revealed

currently china this past week are seeing alot of cargo shipping containers being left at chinese ports where US distributors are simply cancelling orders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLj6Qjm2O1U

china is already calling around other countries seeing which countries want cheap goods. because the longer the shipping containers stay at chinese ports the longer the distributors are hit with penalties(demurrage charge $300 a day)
https://youtu.be/w0bqrf8LHw8?t=545

china are able to do this because businesses in china were making hefty profit with US last year so suppliers can cut the retail/wholesale prices, plus whilst containers are filling the ports it stops the flow of other containers which could have gotten through if the ports were not already full.. so the chinese government are willing to add subsidies to willing destinations to reduce the average retail/wholesale costs further,
and because the longer shipping containers stay at ports the more penalties are so its cheaper for suppliers to sell at cost/loss now rather than just wait out a trade deal, which can cost the distributors alot in demurrage charges

yep china cant just wait out trump, even a week is costing suppliers/distributors in china, let alone the next 3 months
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yScvD_WWm3Q

^edited quotes to add spoonfeeding info links

china contacted to do deals with EU to dump them with the finished goods held at chinese ports at huge discount, but even EU is saying no
https://youtu.be/w0bqrf8LHw8?t=629

[paxmao]

the moderator deleted this post because he thinks this forum is a university scholars dissertation record.. thinking posts requires citations or else breaking some rule .. the moderator sounds like a control freak, so im reposting

trump has to do negotiations with (currently 75 willing countries), which takes time..
however he wants an answer from china now

so knowing its going to take upto 90 days to get through the current 75 countries negotiations he has done them a favour by not forcing them into the new deal before they can negotiate..

however again trump wants china to come to the negotiation table now, not in upto 90 days

You are the king of childish responses. "He" is not going to be in 75 negotiations, there will be a few teams in each region that will do something that they could and should have done anyway without having to cause a market caos, scare investment and create a problem for everyone. This is what happens when you get a text-book narcissist in a government.

you missed many things AS USUAL
its about countries COMING TO THE US's NEGOTIATING TABLE and meet with the US cabinet and other departments, which trump also wants to be in the room for

south korea was already on a plane yesterday, as was japan. italy will visit next week
and a schedule being set up for the rest

its not about both side just agreeing on a number. its about the other countries coming up with unique deals of things that might interest trump.

"tailored tariff deals"
their message to foreign counterparts seems simple: If they have a unique card to play, they should.

Ideas being discussed run the gamut, and include possible action on securing the freedom of Americans wrongfully detained abroad, committing to working with US artificial intelligence companies, buying more US energy or combatting global drug trafficking, according to five people familiar with the brainstorming sessions.


if you think a bunch of US guys(as YOU childishly do) are going to travel to 75 countries at the foreign table.. you missed the whole point, not just many.. you missed them all

trumps negotiation table is seats for Trump, Vance, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Homeland Security, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, U.S. Trade Representative, Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing
heck if countries have a playing card for Defense contracts then the DoD will be at the table too

Seems you are also getting the moderator wrong

Firstly you should start looking for signs that your theories do not fly. Elon - who does assemble in the US - basically went into rage when he figured out that all his imports from China would make a Tesla price impossible to pay. And, as you may see, a nearly immediate exception has been made for Apple, because, as I said many times, moving production is sometimes very difficult and sometimes impossible.

None of this is new. Tariffs and commercial deals are continuously negotiated among countries. Having it done with fanfarre, TV and all that is just a question of style. But there is of course a narrative to cover "it is because we were being ripped of"... "others were taking advantage"... none of that is true - deals are negotiatied and can be re-negotiated as they expire... or sometimes even before. The industry run from the US because the US is, in general, not competitive in salaries, conditions, law, ... for many sectors.

Now, it is for everyone to see Trump is that he uses a "shock" strategy. In the world of New York real state, there may be some advantage to this circus and there is no doubt that it keep the 24 hour cycle of new talking all the time about you. Yep, I do understand the guy - I mean, I can see how he thinks on this.

But... there is always a but... there is a price to pay. In the world of international relations, reputation, stability, continuity... all that is as valuable as currency. That is the fuel that Trump is burning with his actions. Financial markets also like the same: predictability, continuity, control, rule of law... That is also being burnt. That "fuel" belonged to the people of the US and they are now without.

And then there's the "short term pain". There is short term pain, but for the US consumer that will need to pay the extra cost of tariffs and the extra cost of local production... well, there is long long term pain too. And it is comming quick and thick.

[franky1]

Seems you are also getting the moderator wrong

Firstly you should start looking for signs that your theories do not fly. Elon - who does assemble in the US - basically went into rage when he figured out that all his imports from China would make a Tesla price impossible to pay. And, as you may see, a nearly immediate exception has been made for Apple, because, as I said many times, moving production is sometimes very difficult and sometimes impossible.

....
And then there's the "short term pain". There is short term pain, but for the US consumer that will need to pay the extra cost of tariffs and the extra cost of local production... well, there is long long term pain too. And it is comming quick and thick.

elon this month is selling the model 3 and Y cheaper than previously.. so HA
also apple already shifted most of its assembly to india (66%) and is only asking for a temporary exemption for about a month while they sort out more movements to avoid the china tariff

so short term movements but not going to really hit the pockets of consumers

have a nice day,

you have a warped mindset stuck in a 2 option fear story of "expensive foreign coz china tariff  and expensive american cos full production US"
you keep ignoring the middle ground business model that businesses are actually implementing right now..

you seem to want to ignore it becasue i was the first to inform you of it so due to some emotional butt-hurt you want to ignore it purely cos "franky said it so must be wrong"

how about DYOR (do your own research) and find the information yourself then you dont have to beleive me becasue you found the answer for yourself


your rhetoric is like this analogy
you support a certain media outlet for emotional loyalty reasons(unknown to normal people) they click-baited you a story that the earth is flat.
you blind trusted the story because of [insert silly reason] and it becaome your perception ingrained into you that you dont want to break away from nor admit you are wrong about

instead of you researching science to realise the earth is round. you just googled "is earth flat" and you only wanted to click on results that said yes.. even if majority of results said no
you made the decision to only seek articles that repeat/agre with your stupidity

you then see me on the forum telling you that the earth is round. but you just ignore it like an idiot because "franky said its round so must be flat"

so again
how about just do some real research and learn the earth is round from research you try for yourself.. and then you dont need to love/hate media/franky

just do some research and realise what is real and what is actually happening in the real world without someone spoonfeeding you

no where in any of your posts have you shown any sign of learning words like freeports, ftz. mfn rates. pntr
you have not shown any sign of looking at how tesla, apple GM and many others are actually this month expanding their "assembly" plants

your obsession with the clickbait narrative business model of "foreign or US full build" only options is very transparent as to your lack of research

[Mr no juice]

Seems you are also getting the moderator wrong

Firstly you should start looking for signs that your theories do not fly. Elon - who does assemble in the US - basically went into rage when he figured out that all his imports from China would make a Tesla price impossible to pay. And, as you may see, a nearly immediate exception has been made for Apple, because, as I said many times, moving production is sometimes very difficult and sometimes impossible.

....
And then there's the "short term pain". There is short term pain, but for the US consumer that will need to pay the extra cost of tariffs and the extra cost of local production... well, there is long long term pain too. And it is comming quick and thick.

elon this month is selling the model 3 and Y cheaper than previously.. so HA
also apple already shifted most of its assembly to india (66%) and is only asking for a temporary exemption for about a month while they sort out more movements to avoid the china tariff

so short term movements but not going to really hit the pockets of consumers

have a nice day,

you have a warped mindset stuck in a 2 option fear story of "expensive foreign coz china tariff  and expensive american cos full production US"
you keep ignoring the middle ground business model that businesses are actually implementing right now..

you seem to want to ignore it becasue i was the first to inform you of it so due to some emotional butt-hurt you want to ignore it purely cos "franky said it so must be wrong"

how about DYOR (do your own research) and find the information yourself then you dont have to beleive me becasue you found the answer for yourself


your rhetoric is like this analogy
you support a certain media outlet for emotional loyalty reasons(unknown to normal people) they click-baited you a story that the earth is flat.
you blind trusted the story because of [insert silly reason] and it becaome your perception ingrained into you that you dont want to break away from nor admit you are wrong about

instead of you researching science to realise the earth is round. you just googled "is earth flat" and you only wanted to click on results that said yes.. even if majority of results said no
you made the decision to only seek articles that repeat/agre with your stupidity

you then see me on the forum telling you that the earth is round. but you just ignore it like an idiot because "franky said its round so must be flat"

so again
how about just do some real research and learn the earth is round from research you try for yourself.. and then you dont need to love/hate media/franky

just do some research and realise what is real and what is actually happening in the real world without someone spoonfeeding you

no where in any of your posts have you shown any sign of learning words like freeports, ftz. mfn rates. pntr
you have not shown any sign of looking at how tesla, apple GM and many others are actually this month expanding their "assembly" plants

your obsession with the clickbait narrative business model of "foreign or US full build" only options is very transparent as to your lack of research

trump has to do negotiations with (currently 75 willing countries), which takes time..
however he wants an answer from china now

so knowing its going to take upto 90 days to get through the current 75 countries negotiations he has done them a favour by not forcing them into the new deal before they can negotiate..

however again trump wants china to come to the negotiation table now, not in upto 90 days

Yes and to speed it up he says there begging to come to the table that will make it easier.

[paxmao]

Seems you are also getting the moderator wrong

Firstly you should start looking for signs that your theories do not fly. Elon - who does assemble in the US - basically went into rage when he figured out that all his imports from China would make a Tesla price impossible to pay. And, as you may see, a nearly immediate exception has been made for Apple, because, as I said many times, moving production is sometimes very difficult and sometimes impossible.

....
And then there's the "short term pain". There is short term pain, but for the US consumer that will need to pay the extra cost of tariffs and the extra cost of local production... well, there is long long term pain too. And it is comming quick and thick.

elon this month is selling the model 3 and Y cheaper than previously.. so HA
also apple already shifted most of its assembly to india (66%) and is only asking for a temporary exemption for about a month while they sort out more movements to avoid the china tariff

so short term movements but not going to really hit the pockets of consumers

have a nice day,

you have a warped mindset stuck in a 2 option fear story of "expensive foreign coz china tariff  and expensive american cos full production US"
you keep ignoring the middle ground business model that businesses are actually implementing right now..

you seem to want to ignore it becasue i was the first to inform you of it so due to some emotional butt-hurt you want to ignore it purely cos "franky said it so must be wrong"

how about DYOR (do your own research) and find the information yourself then you dont have to beleive me becasue you found the answer for yourself


your rhetoric is like this analogy
you support a certain media outlet for emotional loyalty reasons(unknown to normal people) they click-baited you a story that the earth is flat.
you blind trusted the story because of [insert silly reason] and it becaome your perception ingrained into you that you dont want to break away from nor admit you are wrong about

instead of you researching science to realise the earth is round. you just googled "is earth flat" and you only wanted to click on results that said yes.. even if majority of results said no
you made the decision to only seek articles that repeat/agre with your stupidity

you then see me on the forum telling you that the earth is round. but you just ignore it like an idiot because "franky said its round so must be flat"

so again
how about just do some real research and learn the earth is round from research you try for yourself.. and then you dont need to love/hate media/franky

just do some research and realise what is real and what is actually happening in the real world without someone spoonfeeding you

no where in any of your posts have you shown any sign of learning words like freeports, ftz. mfn rates. pntr
you have not shown any sign of looking at how tesla, apple GM and many others are actually this month expanding their "assembly" plants

your obsession with the clickbait narrative business model of "foreign or US full build" only options is very transparent as to your lack of research

trump has to do negotiations with (currently 75 willing countries), which takes time..
however he wants an answer from china now

so knowing its going to take upto 90 days to get through the current 75 countries negotiations he has done them a favour by not forcing them into the new deal before they can negotiate..

however again trump wants china to come to the negotiation table now, not in upto 90 days

Yes and to speed it up he says there begging to come to the table that will make it easier.

You still seem to miss the point: It is ALWAYS more expensive to do nearly any industrial activity in the US. Sometimes it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it. That will be paid by the US consumers. Your theory about freeports does not solve many of the factors that make the production expensive, inefficient and sometimes impossible, so STILL that will be paid by the US consumers.

I cannot put it more simple:

- Relocate= higher costs to be paid by US consumers (producin in US is more expensive).
- Do not relocate = higher costs (tariff) to be paid by US consumers.

And in the long run, an economy that will progressively be less competitive and the consumers have an effective "corralito" on where they can buy.

And on you silly observation about "outlets saying this or that" and there is nothing emotional about the people who are clearly telling Trump he is messing up. Add now Dimon to the list, and we are talking about people who are usually careful not to bother the POTUS.

US and China need to talk like adults. https://youtu.be/pgTBJ8olCGY?t=25

An added factor to the ecuation is the US Dollar. That is where Trump may be expecting to lower the US production costs, but I think that is not going to work well either:

- Trump is trying to break the USD dominance in the international markets. As usual, I do get his reasons: It is very difficult to devaluate or weaken the US dollar because it is seen as a refuge and used in (roughly) 90% of transactions in the world if I remember correctly. That is shown in the huge stocks of US debt held by China and most other countries.

Trump is trying to make that debt unnatractive by lowering the rates and creating an uncertain environment. The rationale I do see it: this would allow the US to export better, I mean Japan has been doing it decades. And to a point it is happening, many central banks are dumping US debt and buying gold.

What is the problem then? Would it not be great to have a weak USD? What could go wrong?

I am going to let you hang yourself with your answers as usual.

[franky1]

i do laugh when paxmao responds.. just his sheer lack of personal knowledge and experience, ontop of his rants to defend some lame media he supports as his source of info is evident.. his unwilingness to look beyond the clickbait of project fear is the most comical part

i bet he never even heard of freeports before i mentioned them nor MFN, nor PTNR. i bet he has never even travelled to asia to experience other cultures, nor even done any kind of business analysis himself ...

anyway
many decades ago china and US done trade deals where china became "the factory of the world" .. yet china is NOT THE CHEAPEST country to be the "factory of the world"

so whats happening is, oh and whats already happened i must state, is that america is changing the deal and it wont make china happy

lets take vietnam and india for instance.. trump is now doing deals to get parts from those countries instead and then allow businesses in america to assemble them and still remain competitive
..
i even laugh when paxmao throws out little mud balls of silliness from the hole he made for himself.. such as his "what about US steel costs adding $thousands to car costs"
well lets just debunk his notions

a cars chassis is less than one tonne of steal for the frame which then gets marked with a cars vin number
to be a US steal car with US vin number.. costs...................... wait for it $500 more than other countries

the inept man-child of paxmoa thinks that just using Us steal will make a car be multiple $thousands more
it does make me laugh where he gets his info from..

i do give him plenty of chances and time, but he seems to stick with whatever project fear story his lame media notified him of.. complete comedy

..
i know paxmao wants to scream blue murder the only two options is import for china at XXX% or build from scratch in america start to finish in X years and XXX% more expensive.. but he keeps ignoring avoiding and being a complete inept man-child of other options simply because his lame media has not told him what to say

its time paxmao ditches searching for things that back up his lame media's story. removes the lame media from his bookmarks and instead searches for whats actually happening in the real world that is not just a project fear story from lame media

i did try to tell paxmao to try to do more research, gave him every opportunity. but he remains stuck in the circle he wishes to lay in

[pushups44]

lets take vietnam and india for instance.. trump is now doing deals to get parts from those countries instead and then allow businesses in america to assemble them and still remain competitive

Can you provide proof of this claim? Instead of just insulting people and changing the subject, and repetitively claiming people are getting their information from the wrong media, you should bolster your own arguments. If you spent more time providing proof of your claims, and only making claims when proof is provided, you might have 1/10th of the words in your posts.

[franky1]

pushups, paxmao need to use a thing called a search engine instead of crying that they need to be spoonfed.

grow up guys your not a child anymore, learn to feed yourself instead of asking others to feed you
it takes 20 seconds to research yet you still cry, moan and insult on this forum and then wait hours/days for a reply hoping to get the info conveniently fed to you
then you cry more when someone points out that you are having childish tantrums.. you are not the victim. your cries are your own cause

so go learn how to do real research
i gave you all the clues already, i gave you buzzwords you can easily search.. but one final hint. dont use your lame media as the source.. try something new. find the real sources(statements from business owners, not lame media's supposed 'experts')

many things are transpiring this month
car producers expanding their assembly plants in america
china closing down factories and vietnam opening them

heck even bitmain is now making asics in america and shifted away from being known as a chinese manufacturer

here's one spoonfeed for you(im being generous, though you lost my respect to deserve it)
https://youtu.be/GWGqEcqRpuQ?t=41
EDIT: screw it another example.. took me a minute to find a link and also review content
https://youtu.be/H8E4ZPKDZyQ?t=41
screw it, heres another.. foxconn moving its bots and machines to vietnam and its nearly finished the move (in weeks)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo9I9ahgp7o
same video as foxconn but 3minutes later. apple shifting to diversify away from china too
https://youtu.be/vo9I9ahgp7o?t=179
see im more then generous, but it only takes a few seconds to find stuff and not long to find results that are not lame media but statements from business owners themselves

find many many more yourself. and then go seek out the talks between trump and vietnam/india about how trump will favour vietnam/india for becoming the factory of the world if it just stops doing the 're-labelling'/'washing' of chinese companies

now go forth and give yourself just one ounce of trust in yourself that you actually do have the ability to try to do your own research away from lame-media clickbait

unlike lame media.. there are hundreds of examples that oppose the project fear narrative of "ship from china or buy 'made in usa" more expensive'
there are hundreds of examples from actual business owners explaining how they are changing business models THIS MONTH

go seek and you shall find, learn to feed yourself, DYOR(do your own research) and definitely stop crying that someone isn't spoonfeeding you

[pushups44]

go seek and you shall find, learn to feed yourself, DYOR(do your own research) and definitely stop crying that someone isn't spoonfeeding you

Thank you for providing the links - I will check them out and report back. By the way, providing sources is not "spoonfeeding" - it's a way to discourage clutter and raise the level of discussion, especially when there's a temptation to make many claims or repeatedly switch topics. If your aim is to challenge what you believe to be a narrative of the mainstream media, this is good practice (to be fair, most people are not swayed by online disagreements, but it's still good practice, at least for oneself).

[paxmao]

pushups, paxmao need to use a thing called a search engine instead of crying that they need to be spoonfed.

grow up guys your not a child anymore, learn to feed yourself instead of asking others to feed you
it takes 20 seconds to research yet you still cry, moan and insult on this forum and then wait hours/days for a reply hoping to get the info conveniently fed to you
then you cry more when someone points out that you are having childish tantrums.. you are not the victim. your cries are your own cause

so go learn how to do real research
i gave you all the clues already, i gave you buzzwords you can easily search.. but one final hint. dont use your lame media as the source.. try something new. find the real sources(statements from business owners, not lame media's supposed 'experts')

many things are transpiring this month
car producers expanding their assembly plants in america
china closing down factories and vietnam opening them

heck even bitmain is now making aics in america and shifted away from being known as a chinese manufacturer

here's one spoonfeed for you(im being generous, though you lost my respect to deserve it)
https://youtu.be/GWGqEcqRpuQ?t=41
EDIT: screw it another example.. took me a minute to find a link and also review content
https://youtu.be/H8E4ZPKDZyQ?t=41
screw it, heres another.. foxconn moving its bots and machines to vietnam and its nearly finished the move (in weeks)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo9I9ahgp7o
same video as foxconn but 3minutes later. apple shifting to diversify away from china too
https://youtu.be/vo9I9ahgp7o?t=179
see im more then generous, but it only takes a few seconds to find stuff and not long to find results that are not lame media but statements from business owners themselves

find many many more yourself. and then go seek out the talks between trump and vietnam/india about how trump will favour vietnam/india for becoming the factory of the world if it just stops doing the 're-labelling'/'washing' of chinese companies

now go forth and give yourself just one ounce of trust in yourself that you actually do have the ability to try to do your own research away from lame-media clickbait

unlike lame media.. there are hundreds of examples that oppose the project fear narrative of "ship from china or buy 'made in usa" more expensive'
there are hundreds of examples from actual business owners explaining how they are changing business models THIS MONTH

go seek and you shall find, learn to feed yourself, DYOR(do your own research) and definitely stop crying that someone isn't spoonfeeding you

I see... you do not have answers to a weaker dollar. And I can also see you are carefully avoiding my questions about JIT and other industries.

As I said in a previous post, there is nothing wrong in negotiating - it is done everyday all over the world - you just do not make a stupid show on TV and then back-off. But... I do get that some US voters just need to see that.

Again, whatever childish explanations and "numbers" you throw here will not return their money to the pensioners nor will lower inflation. It is going to be an intersting year to quote you all over

Mmm... who to believe.... "Franky" with his "vast experience" or ...

https://www.newsweek.com/nobel-economist-warns-trump-tariffs-causing-recession-2053654

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Warns of Trump Recession

The warning came from James Heckman, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, who said: "The fear of tariffs and the uncertainty about their magnitude and duration is causing the recession."

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2025/04/08/paul-krugman-tariffs

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman delivers a speech at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong on January 20, 2015.

Trump has long criticized U.S. trade deficits with countries including Japan and China. Do trade deficits with individual countries matter?

“No, just as simple as that. This is all junk economics.

“I have a trade deficit with my supermarket. I have a trade surplus with my employer. Bilateral trade deficits are all around us. It's how we live.

Now Franky, use your DIY ... that is what you call DYOR of yours and show me how many nobel price winners are supporting Trump's arguments. We can also go for business leaders opinions later.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plZQpUTnpBo

... tariffs in esence is giving an advantage to local...
however that becomes a disavantage for another...

[Ndabagi01]

The "best" thing about the US tariff policy? There is none! Its a total mess. Changing your mind every five seconds like he does just screws everyone over. 
that is definitely a form of his negotiation tactic.

He knows what he wants and delaying it and making it to take longer time before the negotiation is concluded is all for his own good. I also don’t see anything with all this tariff hikes, he’s disrupting the whole market and the earlier he makes some stance on it the better for all so that people can confidently know what’s next of the market or their expected output in whatever they may have invested in. He feels like the Boss now, but I don’t know if this will bring any positive outcome to everyone in the long term.

[franky1]

oh paxmao.. you still want to cry but then ask me to provide you with more info
go cry some more then learn to do things for yourself

the economists you speak of are not screaming that trump is doing bad things. instead they are explaining how individuals are afraid of the future because media is failing to explain to them how the real world works.. case-in-point. you are in project fear because your media sources are not aiding your knowledge

talking about project fear is different than a real economist who looks at real results where people are actually suffering or seeing negatives consequences due to the underlying real trigger event
yes speculation due to lack of knowledge do cause market consequences. but thats why people should stop with the emotional trading and crying and instead DO SOME RESEARCH
..
EG if you are panic selling on a bitcoin dip and you lose money.. thats YOUR fault of YOUR emotions. dont blame bitcoin. blame yourself for not doing enough research on bitcoin and its market cycles to work out that you should hold and only sell at a profit.


you keep speaking of how the consumers have to pay the tariff.. so go to a retail store and go get an avocado.. and tell me, are you walking up to the retailers cashier counter and being told that you have to pay a premium tax for the tariff import.. no? thought not!

so your suggestion that the consumer is being lumped with tariffs is off..
heck i bet you would not even know what a tariff invoice looked like

you dont understand how businesses work and how they can get around certain things, mitigate, spread or reduce the costs/burdens of tariffs or avoid them entirely

yes if you individually were to buy a box of avocados from mexico from a mexican vendor who has to ship it via a standard customs port. expect the avocados to be held at the customs port and you notified that you have to pay a tariff to finalise the shipment from the port to your home

but businesses have for decades had processes that they can repackage, re-label and wash and wax certain things like fruit to give it some different presentation that makes it processed at a freeport to then be treated as processed domestically

ive told you this many many times in so many different ways. many different examples of many different product times from many different industries

there are many other ways whereby if the wholesaler/distributor cant avoid standard customs ports and is hit by a tariff, they have ways to mitigate the cost to not pass it all onto the consumer as a hidden raise in the goods itself.

did you know walmart do this alot. if there was some surprise added cost of receiving goods. walmart negotiate with supplier to take on the cost by reducing the wholesale cost. or they buy in bulk and get better deals, or a numerous other deal methods walmart handle regularly to average out the costs to not spike

anyway majority of the time big-transnational companies have been dealing with tariffs for decades and know the tricks of the trade.. you may have only heard of tariffs in the last couple months but businesses have been handling them for years


as for your JIT
you made one sentence a week ago about japanese car production. it was not a question nor a cry wanting more info.. but now i see you want to add it in as a new cry to get info about..(facepalm), you were (in that only post that mentioned JIT) foolishly trying to compare intels exaggerated estimates of creating a full production facility from scratch to japans car assembly plant(japan using parts from other locations just-in-time)
what you fail to notice in the intel estimate is the timescale is not just the physical building, but if they had to create new fab machines from scratch in that estimate
and a full production line from material to end product.. again different to the japanese assembly line that uses parts from other countries(JIT model)

now if you read my previous post about foxconn and other posts about moving facilities you will learn that this month many companies are simply moving existing machines from china, into countries that are not china, into leased(ready built buildings) .. thus saving alot of time and money..
(weeks not half-decades, tens of millions not tens of billions)

i even given you examples of car manufacturers like GM expanding its truck assembly which also involves using parts from many countries(not china) where-by the down time will be this week just a few days (22nd-25th april)
yep this week coming GM is expanding its truck assembly line and employing 250 extra new fresh trained employees and will by running again before next weekend..
so stop trying to use the intel exaggeration as the guide for all companies.. learn that things are being done faster and cheaper for many industries including chip and electronics industries.. and that even foxconn shifted its machines from china to vietman this MONTH and wont be taking 3-4 years to set up but weeks

note for comedy purposes only:

https://download.intel.com/newsroom/2022/manufacturing/fab-final-static.pdf

A fab — which includes 1,200 multimillion-dollar tools and 1,500 pieces of utility
equipment — takes about three to four years, over $10 billion and 7,000 construction
workers to complete. Three of the fab’s four levels support the clean room level, the
place where actual chip production occurs.

this is what paxmao has endlessly been trying to refer to as the reason he thinks all businesses will take 3+ years and billions of dollars to start operating in any country.. he has not bothered to research beyond this one example
this is paxmaos milestone brainfart which he thinks all industries are going to use as the standard requirement to be "us made"(facepalm)

[pushups44]

here's one spoonfeed for you(im being generous, though you lost my respect to deserve it)
https://youtu.be/GWGqEcqRpuQ?t=41

I actually saw the whole video, and found it interesting. The video shows the stress and uncertainty caused by Trump's tariffs, which have triggered a massive exodus of Chinese factories to Vietnam. As I pointed out before, much of this production involves manual (human) labor. Also, there are concerns that the U.S. might smack Vietnam and other countries using Chinese factories with higher tariffs, to prevent this shell game. However, it looks like Vietnam has a very good standing with the EU.

[franky1]

here's one spoonfeed for you(im being generous, though you lost my respect to deserve it)
https://youtu.be/GWGqEcqRpuQ?t=41

I actually saw the whole video, and found it interesting. The video shows the stress and uncertainty caused by Trump's tariffs, which have triggered a massive exodus of Chinese factories to Vietnam. As I pointed out before, much of this production involves manual (human) labor. Also, there are concerns that the U.S. might smack Vietnam and other countries using Chinese factories with higher tariffs, to prevent this shell game. However, it looks like Vietnam has a very good standing with the EU.

yep, although that video is just about the feb-march reactions..  part of current negotiations with vietnam will be to not be just a chinese shell..
but interestingly enough there are already examples of previous shell games with thailand and cambodia and how they played out. and how it negatively hurts china and its workers. from trumps first administration and from chinese businesses playing the shell game back in oct-november last year when trump first announced trade protectionism pledge where some chinese businesses already shifted

you will find more examples using the same youtube channel of quoted video and using search.
china are already feeling the economic pinch

basic jist is. new country take over the factory now in its country, use chinese staff temporarily to train countries domestic workers, and the dismisses chinese workers, who end up trying to find jobs in china again.. however in many instances it isnt back to chinese factory cities. but instead the ex-workers home villages of parents to save on housing costs and finding any job they can

china is already showing many factory cities laying idle and the city centre malls and restaurants vacant as the workers of previous rounds are not there to entertain those retailers in their leisure time.

yep china is already seeing the repercussions of previous shell game. and will see it again with the February shell game

...
as for the vietnam example..
i see that because america could not exactly fully own a business in china in full and unrestricted due to china's laws on property rights.. however places like vietnam are slightly more lenient and cheaper, so i see american investors would enter co-ownership or trade deal with vietnam to take the business off china's hands. and help vietnam be fully vietnam domestic worker run, where america can benefit twice from the production.. same goes for india
enjoy your research and glad you found it interesting.
and glad you found it more interesting than just reading project-fear clickbait or my words.. keep up the research, you might enjoy it more
again you will find more examples from business owners using the same youtube channel of quoted videos and using search.
(respect+1)

[Hispo]

I still consider Trump did all of this with the tariffs and the market do all went down so he and his billionaire buddies could buy stocks at discount and then cash out when a recovery took place. Of course, the recovery has to do with Trump pedalling back to not applying those sanctions and tariffs, so investors can get a little bit more comfortable, but not as comfortable as they used to be before Trump madness with tariffs.

It is very easy to profit from the stock market if you are the president of the United States and you are pretty much able to control the sentiment of investors at your will with whatever announcement you decide to make on macroeconomics...
In the end,.those who end up losing are the small investors and those whose retirement funds are directly dependant on the performance of the USA market..

[BADecker]

^^^ But that is a good thing, especially if it lets MAGA prevail, and gets rid of the Venezuelan crime syndicate... out of the US, anyway.

[Agbamoni]

What is the best thing about the tariff policy of the US? That it is as inconsistent as anything else produced by the current administration.

Nothing exciting about the tariff policy.
It is only a way to manipulate the bitcoin price.
Initiating the policy to cause a drop in Bitcoin’s price, then pausing it to allow the price to retrace only to resume it again later.
Just wait and see.