Unemployment rate may rise in 18 months, Fed pivot?

[Alpha Marine]

First of all, I would advise not to take stuff you see on Twitter too seriously unless it has been verified. Anybody can come up with their speculations and predictions. They can go a step further and say a friend of mine from the Fed said this and that. I'm not saying the person you quoted is lying, I'm just saying it's social media, a lot of things fly there.

If there's a legit reason for the loss of jobs, I don't think it will be worldwide. I believe it will be a national problem in some countries, and my country will be one of them, because for the past 2 years, they've been going from one poor policy to the other. A lot of businesses are already going out of business. Both big corporations and small businesses are struggling.

[Mate2237]

I think that the trade war that has been imposed by the president of the united states of America Donald trump is having a negative effects on the global economy it has already been reported that millions of jobs will be lost globally as a result of this tariffs which has been imposed on country by the trump administration the effects of the tariffs is gradually beginning to be seen one thing that is certain is increase in inflation rate of each country which will lead to the increase in the price of goods and services


Jobs loss is eminent because from all indications alot of business are going to be affected which may likely see to them closing because the cost of production is going to move up exponentially as time passes

[Lida93]

Start learning multiple skill guys. Anyone still doubting this will probably have him/her self to blame, I have a friend that does web development and works as a freelancer but recently hasn't been able to score any gig and that is because of AI.
Unemployment rate will be sweeping across many sectors and for many reasons it is best to start preparing for it right now if you haven't been affected, start getting independent and learning stuffs that a computer won't be able to do effectively like a human.

The world is constantly evolving and only those who understands this flows along with those changes as it comes. There were skills that were hot cakes in times past but today they ain't as sorted for as before because technology has taken over those and delivering with high efficiency and in lesser time.  I think building multiple skills  can be helpful but it wouldn't reduce the unemployment rates anyway because the multitudes going for different skills set in current demands would always 2x or more that the available spaces for the available jobs. investing in potential assets would be much safer.

[Wind_FURY]

--Snip--

The point is, unemployment rate is just one factor to look at in this whole massive mess!

But you forget the actual point and the context on why we're specifically talking about the unemployment rate - The unemployment rate is the Federal Reserve's indicator if they pivot to real Q.E./Money-Printer-Goes-BRRRRR or not. It's not inflation, but the underlying demand that causes inflation, WHICH is data obtained from the health of the labor market.

Yes, But FED is not a computer with predefined settings that acts if some condition is true. There is a lot of things affecting their decision, which was my point. There is also a lot of politics that goes into that final decision,

Ser, if the unemployment rate starts to surge, the Federal Reserve will NOT be checking all the other data points anymore. They will not risk waiting for a recession to turn into an actual DEPRESSION. Jerome Powell will be so fast in turning on the money-printer, it will print so much before we can say BRRRRRRR.

which is why we see Trump put so much pressure on head of FED and is also about to introduce his replacement with someone who says "yes sir" better.

Because Trump wants to turn on the money-printer NOW, which would be a MASSIVE mistake.

[philipma1957]

--Snip--

The point is, unemployment rate is just one factor to look at in this whole massive mess!

But you forget the actual point and the context on why we're specifically talking about the unemployment rate - The unemployment rate is the Federal Reserve's indicator if they pivot to real Q.E./Money-Printer-Goes-BRRRRR or not. It's not inflation, but the underlying demand that causes inflation, WHICH is data obtained from the health of the labor market.

Yes, But FED is not a computer with predefined settings that acts if some condition is true. There is a lot of things affecting their decision, which was my point. There is also a lot of politics that goes into that final decision,

Ser, if the unemployment rate starts to surge, the Federal Reserve will NOT be checking all the other data points anymore. They will not risk waiting for a recession to turn into an actual DEPRESSION. Jerome Powell will be so fast in turning on the money-printer, it will print so much before we can say BRRRRRRR.

which is why we see Trump put so much pressure on head of FED and is also about to introduce his replacement with someone who says "yes sir" better.

Because Trump wants to turn on the money-printer NOW, which would be a MASSIVE mistake.

That is because Trump wants to default .

Then tell all the US bonds holders fuck off you will lucky i pay off the bond on time at 1% certainly not the current 4%

[Wind_FURY]

--Snip--

The point is, unemployment rate is just one factor to look at in this whole massive mess!

But you forget the actual point and the context on why we're specifically talking about the unemployment rate - The unemployment rate is the Federal Reserve's indicator if they pivot to real Q.E./Money-Printer-Goes-BRRRRR or not. It's not inflation, but the underlying demand that causes inflation, WHICH is data obtained from the health of the labor market.

Yes, But FED is not a computer with predefined settings that acts if some condition is true. There is a lot of things affecting their decision, which was my point. There is also a lot of politics that goes into that final decision,

Ser, if the unemployment rate starts to surge, the Federal Reserve will NOT be checking all the other data points anymore. They will not risk waiting for a recession to turn into an actual DEPRESSION. Jerome Powell will be so fast in turning on the money-printer, it will print so much before we can say BRRRRRRR.

which is why we see Trump put so much pressure on head of FED and is also about to introduce his replacement with someone who says "yes sir" better.

Because Trump wants to turn on the money-printer NOW, which would be a MASSIVE mistake.

That is because Trump wants to default .

Then tell all the US bonds holders fuck off you will lucky i pay off the bond on time at 1% certainly not the current 4%

I'm confused. Why would he actually want that?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Plus with the risk of a default, he'll actually tell his Republican allies to raise the debt limit, AGAIN. It simply has become their standard operating procedure.

[harapan]

Recession may come sooner than expected so we all should just be prepared if it does happen no matter what the extent of it. Learn which assets would be the safest to invest in and hold during these times. Even if there’s a risk of losing your job, we should have savings and investments and other skills to use so we can be prepared no matter what happens. Life is unpredictable so better prepare for anything we can.

I think the only way we can be prepared for the incoming recession is getting ourselves ready inorder to be financially stable and this involve developing new skills and not depending on salary but instead being able to multitask between skills and jobs that will earn us something as well as bring in more profits is what we should look on to. And thus investment is not exempted.

[Wind_FURY]

Recession may come sooner than expected so we all should just be prepared if it does happen no matter what the extent of it. Learn which assets would be the safest to invest in and hold during these times. Even if there’s a risk of losing your job, we should have savings and investments and other skills to use so we can be prepared no matter what happens. Life is unpredictable so better prepare for anything we can.

I think the only way we can be prepared for the incoming recession is getting ourselves ready inorder to be financially stable and this involve developing new skills and not depending on salary but instead being able to multitask between skills and jobs that will earn us something as well as bring in more profits is what we should look on to. And thus investment is not exempted.

We plebs should be SAVING and holding the best assets that perform OK during phases of recessions. Those assets are, Bonds, Utility Stocks as well as Food and Beverages, and Health Care.

Everyone is not going to like the fact that Bitcoin doesn't perform well during recessionary phases, BUT those phases give the sorts of DIPs that are Golden Opportunities to buy at a DISCOUNT.

[Wind_FURY]

    👀

We are halfway through 2025, and nearly 94,000 tech workers have already lost their jobs. But this is not just another round of cost-saving. Companies are quietly transforming their workforce to align with their AI strategies.

Some roles are disappearing because AI tools are doing the work. Others are being cut so that businesses can redirect their spending toward AI engineering, infrastructure, and research.

https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/ai-tech-layoffs-mid-2025

Is 94,000 tech worker jobs "a lot"? At that rate/velocity of people in tech losing their jobs, how many more people will be without jobs in 18 months?

The mega-layoffs forecast I posted in OP might be increasing moderately in probability, no? 🤔

[Wind_FURY]

Does anyone in BitcoinTalk live in Las Vegas? There are rumors saying that the casinos that place are laying off dealers at a very fast pace, then replacing them with matchines/A.I.

If that's actually true, then that should be another indicator that the 18 month forecast in OP might actually happen, or has a higher probability of happening, no?

  🤔

[Synchronice]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

First of all, let's analyze what's written in this tweet. The guy meat someone, who told him to not reveal the secret (but he revealed, which is a huge disrespect and I'd fight that kind of a guy) and then this guy himself says that they are working on something that will involve 0 humans in certain niche but they don't tell it because they want to avoid mass panic but this guy revealed this information. Now do you see a mass panic? And first of all, if it was a secret, that unknown guy wouldn't reveal it to someone as gossip as this guy is, who tweeted this information.
Long story short, this is either a fake news to have fun or get some expectations or has never been a secret but I think that it's a made up story.

snip

I like your post and that's what I think too but why so much disrespect towards Wind_FURY? Is there a beef between you two? Cause he hasn't said anything that dramatic in this post.

[Wind_FURY]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

First of all, let's analyze what's written in this tweet. The guy meat someone, who told him to not reveal the secret (but he revealed, which is a huge disrespect and I'd fight that kind of a guy) and then this guy himself says that they are working on something that will involve 0 humans in certain niche but they don't tell it because they want to avoid mass panic but this guy revealed this information. Now do you see a mass panic? And first of all, if it was a secret, that unknown guy wouldn't reveal it to someone as gossip as this guy is, who tweeted this information.
Long story short, this is either a fake news to have fun or get some expectations or has never been a secret but I think that it's a made up story.

Read my last two posts before this one. There's data showing that some layoffs because of A.I. are indeed starting to happen. But let's wait for 17 more months to see if there's an actual "mega-layoff". Because if there is one, then expect Jerome Powell to pivot to Quantitative Easing and turn on the money printer.

snip

I like your post and that's what I think too but why so much disrespect towards Wind_FURY? Is there a beef between you two? Cause he hasn't said anything that dramatic in this post.

Read his trust-rating and add him to your ignore list. The more you talk to him, the higher probability you'll get influenced that the "Core Developers are evil". He and joland_fyookball almost got me to believe that Bitcoin Cash is "the real Bitcoin" before I did my own due diligence during the Scaling Debate drama.

[hafiztalha]

    👀

We are halfway through 2025, and nearly 94,000 tech workers have already lost their jobs. But this is not just another round of cost-saving. Companies are quietly transforming their workforce to align with their AI strategies.

Some roles are disappearing because AI tools are doing the work. Others are being cut so that businesses can redirect their spending toward AI engineering, infrastructure, and research.

https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/ai-tech-layoffs-mid-2025

Is 94,000 tech worker jobs "a lot"? At that rate/velocity of people in tech losing their jobs, how many more people will be without jobs in 18 months?

The mega-layoffs forecast I posted in OP might be increasing moderately in probability, no? 🤔

Inflation always rise in early year and it doesn't matter which year is  . When government is applying more taxes then unemployment will be as a result because there are thousands of people who are doing job and they will do for a small amount of my money. They want to earn money because they have no other source of income. There are thousands of people who are doing job but they are not happy with their work because they want to do their own business but they have no skill. When more people have no skill, it is the reason they will be fire from their job because they are not adding value in their service but they should try to learn skill then there will be less unemployment in the country.

[Wakate]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

Should I be panicked? Maybe No because when these starts happening, I hope the government would be happy to enter another recession. Although we might not be able to stop the trend but all we have to upgrade our thinking and start learning one of two things online because soon, getting a good and paying jobs could be difficult and based on connections. The industrialization we are in is about to turn to a nitch where only artificial intelligence robots can work while humans are left in the mold.

So many crazy things are going to happen soon and if the government does not have plans to ameliorate these changes, it will tell on the citizens and make inflow of money to be scarce leading to recession.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Based on your experience, would you say that it would be a reasonable opinion if someone forecasts that the "mega layoffs" are a high probability situation in 18 months?

Because as Bitcoin investors it would probably be good to get some low bids ready in case a recession happens, followed by the Q.E. pivot. It will be another Golden Opportunity to Buy the DIP, and HODL.

Mega layoffs in 18 months aren't possible in my mind, unless something revolutionary happens. First of all, the only people who know how to use AIs are middle or senior developers and designers, or higher ups but project managers, product owners and many other people who have managerial roles, have no idea how to use it, so companies still need these designers and developers to create a product. If AI advances, I think that it will make our job very easy and that will be it unless AI itself becomes an experienced developer or a designer, then there will be mega layoffs.

You're probably right and the information posted by that person that I posted in my post might only be a mere exaggeration. But although he may be right that there will be layoffs because A.I. will replace some jobs, I might not be a sort of "mega layoffs" situation. It might be a slow transition that will take years, or decades.

Let's talk about it again during December 2027. Merry Christmas or Mega Layoff Christmas?

 

Despite the fact that I believe I won't be a victim of AI development, I still think about learning a new skill from trades. Sometimes I sit and think, what's the safest job that will not be replaced by AI? I think that trades is the answer. How can AI change car electrician or a plumber? That will takes decades to achieve that level of development and when we achieve that level, we will already be advanced enough to not worry about anything, so I plan to learn some trades skills like auto electrician. They earn lots of money in my country, are in huge demand and the market is full of stupid electricians but they still manage to have lots of customers because of enormously high demand, so today if you are a smart and educated electrician, in my country you'll make lots of money, more than anyone with university degree.

But software A.I. won't be the only advancement going into the next decade. It will also be the advancement in Robotics, which has also been developing faster than expected.

Is that person I quoted in my post actually describing A.I. + Robotics as the cause of the "mega layoffs"? The "new trade" might be Robot Maintainer and Repairs. Although A.I. can teach these robots to repair themselves or each other.

    👀

Since the world is so focused on advancement of A.i, I imagine that there would already be entrepreneurs and business owners who are thinking in this line to ensure that there are new skill sets and jobs available that not only teach humans to be better advanced in the work place but also off the work place.
The 'mega lay-offs' may happen so seamlessly and smooth that there won't be panic or much significant impact rather than inflation and adoption of newer currency like crypto currency for economic dealings and investment.

However, I reckon there are regions that may not even notice the fast paced adoption of A.i technology and implementation, speak alone of the 'mega lay-offs' that is this topic of discussion.

[tygeade]

Is 94,000 tech worker jobs "a lot"? At that rate/velocity of people in tech losing their jobs, how many more people will be without jobs in 18 months?

The mega-layoffs forecast I posted in OP might be increasing moderately in probability, no? 🤔

Yeah, sort of. I mean 94k all by itself is not a lot, but just from on industry, which is tech, is a lot. If it was same in all industries, we would have over ten million new unemployed people, and that would have been horrible.

Tech part means something because of AI, because the people who are building the AI, are the ones who are getting unemployed to begin with. Not exactly the AI builders, but people who build AI are software engineers, the computer science majors, and other ones who are same job, just not working on AI, are getting replaced now. Same with art, marketing, design and many other jobs, all getting sacked. I can literally build a whole game, and put it on steam, all with help of AI, without knowing a line of code, or be able to draw a straight line. That should scare people a lot.

[r_victory]

In eighteen months, anything can happen. I'm fed up with pessimistic predictions. The economy is being shaken in many countries, some by corruption, others by mismanagement, and still others by wars. The world has gone through countless crises, and mass layoffs are almost a constant occurrence. Can AI make this even worse? Yes. But it's time to reinvent ourselves. There will always be room for qualified people. With AI, jobs have been lost, and new ones are being created. We are entering a new phase, a new cycle, and those who don't adapt will be laid off, left behind.

A prompt engineer earns an average annual salary of $335,000; until a few years ago, this profession didn't even exist. That's what it's all about: learning new things; there will always be opportunities for those who want to enter new markets.

It will be interesting to return to this post in eighteen months.

[Wind_FURY]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

Should I be panicked? Maybe No because when these starts happening, I hope the government would be happy to enter another recession. Although we might not be able to stop the trend but all we have to upgrade our thinking and start learning one of two things online because soon, getting a good and paying jobs could be difficult and based on connections. The industrialization we are in is about to turn to a nitch where only artificial intelligence robots can work while humans are left in the mold.

So many crazy things are going to happen soon and if the government does not have plans to ameliorate these changes, it will tell on the citizens and make inflow of money to be scarce leading to recession.

Panic? Actually no. That's not why I opened this topic. We plebs should be prepared because if a situation comes when the unemployment rate in the U.S. surges, THEN expect a Fed pivot to REAL Q.E.

If you haven't been preparing through a consistent accumulation of Bitcoin, then your probably should start NOW, or save as much fiat as you can until you believe you're ready.

[Zackz5000]

Somany individuals has wise up by creating self employment for themselves though some are still waiting for government to get them employed which is very wrong of them, unemployment rate is really high AI is now doing most of the job a person can do to earn a living, in my country employment rate is high both graduate and undergraduate struggle to get one those who now understand the system has already gifted them self with some skills some have started with little business is still pity those who are waiting for or hoping on a white collar job for it's through connections that people get employed this days.

[Oluwa-btc]

Recession may come sooner than expected so we all should just be prepared if it does happen no matter what the extent of it. Learn which assets would be the safest to invest in and hold during these times. Even if there’s a risk of losing your job, we should have savings and investments and other skills to use so we can be prepared no matter what happens. Life is unpredictable so better prepare for anything we can.

Recession or not this is an avenue for every individual to practice multitasking and  getting involved  in multiple jobs that would enable them be at a pace of no financial crises. Investment this period would be necessary and to be rest assured of being on the safer sides, diversifying ones income means it's a good start to keep oneself abrace of what's coming.