Is It Really 50/50 When You Bet on 2.00 Odds?

[serjent05]

I also don't think that 2.0 odds is a 50/50 chance since it is not absolute like flipping coins.  This is just a calculation of a book maker according to the gathered data between teams in matches.  Besides, bookmaker have its own edge in those odds so it is possible that a 2.00 odds is less than 50% chance of winning.  The odds are just a mere estimate not an absolute thing that will happen.

When i sse this kind of 2 odds games i somewhat have some positive attitude towards them and if a odds of like 1.50 is avaliable and the team is strong you can give it a 50/50 bets speculations but is not still a guarantee bet still everything still depends on your lucks to win.

This is why we always advocate that gamblers should not take sure bet based on odds provisions although odds plays a significant role in winning a bet since odds are divided based on team performance and available fact about the teams playing.

Well, odds are just estimations, not facts, since the event has yet to happen. Therefore, there is always room for error and things happening the opposite way.

[Satofan44]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

It is not. The odds that the bookmakers give you are not accurate representations of real world probabilities.

It's not 50/50 but more like 30/70. We are 30 as a gambler. Anyway, that's why they put handicap in when it's about sports betting. We can take advantage of those handicaps and increase the chance of winning.

It is neither 30/70, you have just made that up. The reality is that probabilities of real world activities such as sports are extremely difficult to calculate. It may not even be possible at times to calculate the real probabilities due to all the factors involved and their respective complexities. We usually get some good approximations and that is it.

Even odds of 1.25 that many gamblers will see as 95/5 chance of winning, will fuck your bet slip up on a day that you are bound to lose bet.

How do you arrive with the  95/5 chance of winning?

you can use this calculator to determine it correctly. https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

1.25 is only 0.25/1 in fraction with 80% Implied Probability.

The users tend to get these wrong, that is true. However, I don't think the topic has to be necessarily about converting odds to mathematical probability. The other aspect that we are talking about is whether those odds represent reality.

[rakebit]

Odds of 2.00 might look like a 50/50 chance, but in reality, the bookmaker’s margin skews it slightly below that. True even odds would require no house edge at all. Always check the implied probability (1/odds) to understand your real value. Do you usually compare different books for better lines before betting?

[Porfirii]

Someone who only bets on sports can have that wrong idea about 2.00 being what it seems: a 50% chance all-or-nothing game. Those who play many games and know the mechanisms of gambling and betting platforms know that there is something "hidden" in that deal to double your money. In dice, for example, there is always that little additional percentage against you, and I think this is the most obvious example but, as I said, it has more to do with knowing how casinos do their business, and sportsbooks aren't different in that sense.

[Bitcoin Smith]

There can be only two probabilities in most games and there is three if there is possibility of draw or tie so in theory the chance of winning is 50/50 or 33.3%. And bookies reply on the losing to make their money and in rare cases there can be exceptional result may arrive but that also will end up voiding the bet so all the wagers will be refunded with not much deduction. This is why they try to play the risk with cashout options which also risk taken by casino that may increase their revenue.

[stompix]

Nah, I don't think so either.
It's not 50/50 but more like 30/70.

So that means the other choice has a 70% chance of winning.
Now please do the math on this:



Cause if the first option has a 30% of happening ,then the other two are at 70%. Splitting the bets between them earns you on average 0.05 and 0.3125 so you get a total of  18% return on the said bets.
All you would have to do is chase games where the odds are 2.0 for a result and you will get 18%, which would beat even Ponzi schemes!!!!

[Hispo]

I have always understood the marked difference between odds and chances, they are definitely not the same, though, there are novice gamblers who believe games with a 2x multiplier equals having a fifty percent of chance to get double of their money, in reality odds are rather a perception by the market on the situation of the game and the likely outcome.
Bookies would obviously try to get some leverage on odds so they always get a profit from the volume of bets, that is normal, as it is part of their business, odds will depends on both perception of the market and also the slice of profit taken by the bookie to continue to operate.

Also, I have seen some people mentioning betting on sports is supposed to me one hundred percent about fun and not profit, but it would be rather ignorant not to see how much of economical interest is in the world of betting, it cannot be ignored.

[Makus]

We can't really tell that actual percentage of any odds given, the bookmakers provide it by their calculations so technically they know better. Sometimes it is possible that you bet on a game of 2 odds that chances of winning are more than fifty percent. It's not a function of the odds but but it's all about the statistical aspect of it. In sports betting a team might be give 2 odds to win by the bookmakers, when you carryout your analysis you are going to find out whether it has a fifty percent chance of playing out or maybe less, in some cases it may be higher

[Perfectbaby]

The odds seems to cool to bet on but that doesn't change the chances of losing or winning, in gambling the same possibility that goes to winning multiple legs games to single leg game.. I mean in gambling it's chances are possibilities that counts and when gambling the chances of one to win is 50/50 and is either you win or lose but going for a lower odds gives us higher chances to win than that of higher odds as it could be easily lost.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip

Actually, they kinda look even but that little slice of the house edge is kinda stacked against you mathematically. It's the cost of admission and over time it guarantees the bookie actually wins. Since you're essentially starting every 2.00 bet at a disadvantage chasing that fair 50/50 bet is almost like a loser's strategy. The only way to survive let alone profit is to hunt down the value which is where you find a line the bookie mispriced.

So basically You have to believe that your team's real chance of winning is significantly higher than the probability the odds imply. If they offer you 2.20 but you've genuinely assessed the chance as 50% that's your ticket. You're not betting on the game instead you're betting on the bookie being wrong.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

We don’t really notice it because the numbers look balanced, but that hidden margin is what keeps the sportsbook profitable long-term. So even if you win sometimes, over many bets, that small percentage difference starts to add up in their favor, not yours.

What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

FOr this i will tell you that this is 50/50 tha chance of winning is 1/2 and no matter what you do it is 50%
But for the odds will never 50% on a casino when you need to choose on one side with 2 side choices.
In this  game the casino needs to win by some percents. that is why you are saying those numbers.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

Its not particular about 2 odds but I can agree that its 50 50 here because win and lose would be equal amount, but when you pay taxes on your wins, the percentage reduces drastically, when you place with smaller odds, let's say it 1.2 odds has an equal chance to lose and win,  but when you lose such a bet, you lose more than what you could've actually won
Let's say you bet on a 1.2 odd with $100, you gain $20 when you win and lose $100 when it loses making the single bets more loss oriented. More reasons I go for parlays with smaller amounts.

[Mrbluntzy]

Sometimes you can not know when a bet is worth it or not and it also depend on the amount that you are staking on that bet. I mean, you could say the 2.00 is not worth risk on but if you had place the bet, you would have won. It means that the results of our bet cam not be determined before the end of the game, it's always at the end of the game that we can tell of we won or lost the bet. Nothing is certain in betting, just bet with the amount that you can afford to lose and also make yourself familiar with the best market that gives you most of your wins.

[KiaKia]

This is getting boring and boring, talking about same odds over and over again, aren't you tired already? Why is risking only the amount that you can afford to lose becomes so hard for gamblers to do?

Is that 50/50 chance not the same reality for all gambling games like sports and casino games? You really want someone to tell you that no its not a 50/50 chance, here is what you can do, the day you use all your income to bet on 2.0 ods you will win.

Just make sure you are sincere with the part where you have to use everything you have, including  all the amount in your bank account too, risk it all and you will see miracle, this is what you need to hear.

[Su-asa]

First of all, we as a gambler need to understand that the odds are not always at our advantage, it's just the more we look the lesser we see and understand how the bookies works. But what you said is really true because winning a 2 odds bet is not guaranteed. Many gamblers really think is easy to win a 2 odds bet but truth be told that it's not as the odd is not at our own advantage.

[Muba20]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

It is not logical to place a bet only by looking at the odds. Because the betting odds are not always correct. Many times I see that the odds of a weaker team are lower than the relatively good team, that is, the weaker team is put ahead. If those who do sports betting do not rely on the odds but first analyze the results and place bets in that proportion, I think they will do well. But by looking at the bookmaker's odds, there is never a chance to be sure about the position of a team in a bet.

[Agbamoni]

This should be the 50th times I have sad there is no pattern, technique, strategy and sports betting markets that will guarantee you a win in sports betting. Every game in the casino from casino to sports games the house always have an edge. You are betting against the booker no matter what odd you choose. You should only expect your luck to shine, that is the only way you win sometimes, while every single time the bookies win, if not against you, they surely win against another bettor.

[Scarlett_23]

Odds never guarantee winning. Analysis is needed to win, not odds. Odds are a number, it is a bookmaker's calculation. If true value is found by analyzing it, then it can be profitable. However, even if the odds are 2.00, it will not be fifty-fifty.

Because bookmakers add a margin here. The real probability behind the odds is low. Finally, one thing can be said that gambling is a matter of complete luck.
The one who succeeds at the last moment is the real winner.

[Anayochukwu]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

The odd being 2.00 does not make the risk and chance of wining a 50 by 50 chance, this is not how it is, once you gamble, regardless of the odd, know that you have a more higher chances of losing to that of winning, its not that you cant win at all, but the number of times you could have played will be more of losses than winning, choose whatever odd that pleases you, it changes nothing from you winning or losing.

I agree with you I don't know why some people are still relying on odd till now. However, as much as gambling is concerned odd does not guarantee you winnings gambling is a game of luck there is nothing like betting on 2 00 odds because no matter any odds you betting without luck it wouldn't work out for you. Though most gambling often losses in gambling because of this mindset forgotten that luck is the ultimate that can a gambler can never over thrown.

[alegotardo]

What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

2.00 will never be 50/50
It is an illusion where the house always wins... This is a mathematical illusion because they always adjust the payout to maintain profit at all bets, even when the odds appear to be balanced.

You can even bet on these scenarios if the "value" is good... or other words when you understand the game  (if sports) and are convinced that there is a real chance of a more favorable outcome than what the odds show to you, this is the only way to play based on strategy and assume the role of a bettor, not a "customer" at the casino.

If you truly want to find fair odds, then you need to go elsewhere... like an exchange or P2P marketplaces where you do not have to pay the bookie. Otherwise, 2.00 = 50/50 is pure illusion!!!