[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

My thoughts on this matter from 7 years ago.  For a while I felt like I was one of the only folks not "playing".  Maybe I missed out on Risto spewing a lot of money... dunno.  But I never wanted to touch the damn thing with a 10ft pole.  These thoughts were exchanged with another forum member at the time.  He agreed that it was not really a positive direction for the "community" at the time.  But of course Monero did not give a crap what we were all doing.

[smooth]

There are quite a few rumblings out there now about "Privacy". 

I noticed the positive trend on XMR/BTC over the past couple of months as BTC has stagnated in a narrow range.

[cAPSLOCK]

There are quite a few rumblings out there now about "Privacy". 

I noticed the positive trend on XMR/BTC over the past couple of months as BTC has stagnated in a narrow range.

Agreed.  And though I am certainly extremely biased Monero is STILL one of the most undervalued coins out there.  It is incorrectly valued.  Dogcoins, DeFi, and NFTs have pulled in so much hype for the last 1-2 years.  As we see that fading, I expect we should see a more favorable xmr/btc pair even if we see BTC rise.  I expect XMR could still rise with it, or at least hold up better than the rest of the alts.

I mentioned that I feel like "privacy" is a rising buzzword.  But I also think we may also see BTC and ALTS decouple a bit as ETH starts to fall apart and people look to the leader for value storage.  So this could be good or bad, but I am thinking we at least hold up better than the rest of the field.

[tokeweed]

^  Privacy ain't not gonna be no buzzword once users really understood what's at stake here.  It's a basic human right as the real ones in the Monero community always firmly address.  I think crypto should always have that reminder.  And it's important that XMR should exist in case they fuck up BTC.  Imagine a scenario when BTC becomes so mainstream it becomes the banker's coin...

And I get that a lot of people want the new stuff.  It's where they can make a lot of money and get their dopamine rush.  Lol.  I guess it's their way of gambling like how we like gambling in poker, sports or what have you. 

[bitebits]

While price does its thing from day to day, anyone can run a node. Just do it, you'll learn a thing or two about the network along the way as well. We need more nodes for the day Monero inevitably hits the spotlight (and people are forced to pay the price of XMR's value).

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

[infofront]

The signal is spreading.

https://twitter.com/sovrynmindset/status/1507246275208560640

[bitebits]

I think today ($235) the below major event is far from priced in yet. In <14 months tail emission kicks in, the last variable block reward is mined (currently ~1.09 XMR per two minute block and dropping). At that future date in just eight years time a whopping 18.4 million XMR are mined. A then constant tail emission of 0.6 XMR per block means ~0.85% inflation in the first year (157,680 XMR), and that percentage is declining each following year. The only way still being able to get a decent number of monero is increasing your bid price, there a very few new moneros coming into existence from miners.

I will check in again in a year's time. But in the meanwhile, grab some while they are still cheap.

Monero block rewards will never drop to zero. Block rewards will gradually drop until tail emission commences at the end of May 2022. At this point, rewards will be fixed at 0.6 XMR per block.

https://www.getmonero.org/resources/moneropedia/tail-emission.html

The market can stay irrational longer than.. Nope, hodling without leverage FTW. Almost dead on the same USD price as this time around last year. 50k blocks left before tail emission kicks in, exciting times. Let’s see in a years time how the market caught up with reality regarding supply inelasticity and the ever increasing need for online financial privacy.

https://p2pool.io/tail.html

[cAPSLOCK]

I think today ($235) the below major event is far from priced in yet. In <14 months tail emission kicks in, the last variable block reward is mined (currently ~1.09 XMR per two minute block and dropping). At that future date in just eight years time a whopping 18.4 million XMR are mined. A then constant tail emission of 0.6 XMR per block means ~0.85% inflation in the first year (157,680 XMR), and that percentage is declining each following year. The only way still being able to get a decent number of monero is increasing your bid price, there a very few new moneros coming into existence from miners.

I will check in again in a year's time. But in the meanwhile, grab some while they are still cheap.

Monero block rewards will never drop to zero. Block rewards will gradually drop until tail emission commences at the end of May 2022. At this point, rewards will be fixed at 0.6 XMR per block.

https://www.getmonero.org/resources/moneropedia/tail-emission.html

The market can stay irrational longer than.. Nope, hodling without leverage FTW. Almost dead on the same USD price as this time around last year. 50k blocks left before tail emission kicks in, exciting times. Let’s see in a years time how the market caught up with reality regarding supply inelasticity and the ever increasing need for online financial privacy.

https://p2pool.io/tail.html

A good point.  And the tail emission is a deceptive twist in a way.  I have to admit my knee jerk reaction to it was negative.  I do not think Bitcoin will need it.  But only because the ecosystem will evolve to the point where the fees make mining still worth it, and the fact that Bitcoin will (probably?) always have big hashrate pointed at it.  But unless Monero actually flipped bitcoin, which I would give it about a 2% chance of doing, then it will need the emission to remain secure.  Particularly if we do not intend to let the fee market do what the Bitcoin fee market will (hopefully).

A huge point of contention and one of the arguments that is often used to pit Monero against Bitcoin.  I think very few coins will survive with a hard cap.

But the part that's not easy to see at first is the the supply is only "infinite" over infinity.  A release rate asymptotically approaching 0 forever will not add enough coins across the span of a human lifetime to make the coin a bad store of value.  I think Bitcoin will be BETTER as long as it survives (which it will).

I think a good way to digest it is to say how many coins will you have to hold to have 1/1000000th of the supply.

At the very start of the tail emission that will be: 18.4
Then TEN YEARS into the tail emission it will be: 19.19
At the end of a HUNDRED YEARS into the tail : 27.07

And so on.  So even after a hundred years your original 18.4 coins will only have diminished to ~68% of it's former percent of the total.  And this does not even account for lost coins.  Only 788k coins lost a year would mean you broke even.

But a reduction of 32% of your value over a century?  Not such a big deal... and certainly not what you feel like it would be when someone says "INFINITE SUPPLY!!!"  Plus your percentage of former value is constantly decelerating on the way down...  The longer you hold Monero the less the inflation will impact the total percentages.

It is easy to look at the privacy value prop of Monero and see that as the key selling point.  But the market does not have that ANYWHERE NEAR priced in yet, and it is completely ignoring other design choices like dynamic blocksize, the tail emission, and ASIC resistance.  Those are also deeply complimentary strategies when compared to Bitcoin.  Each coin will charge the users a fee to use it.  Bitcoin will charge people at the time of the transaction, incentivizing holding.  Monero will penalize holders slightly, but most likely remain cheap to transact in.  Incentivizing velocity slightly.

That said one problem we may still face is a large and unwieldy blockchain...

Monero truly is an exception in a giant field of cowshit that is the alts...

[Hueristic]

But unless Monero actually flipped bitcoin, which I would give it about a 0.02% chance of doing, then it will need the emission to remain secure. 

FTFY.

[cAPSLOCK]

While price does its thing from day to day, anyone can run a node. Just do it, you'll learn a thing or two about the network along the way as well. We need more nodes for the day Monero inevitably hits the spotlight (and people are forced to pay the price of XMR's value).

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

I have run a node for years...  On that map, I can zoom in, and there is a dot about 2 miles from my house.  I always wonder if that is actually me... or if someone else in my neck of the woods does it too...  My node may be part of the ones consolidated into my service provider.

[Hueristic]

While price does its thing from day to day, anyone can run a node. Just do it, you'll learn a thing or two about the network along the way as well. We need more nodes for the day Monero inevitably hits the spotlight (and people are forced to pay the price of XMR's value).

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

I have run a node for years...  On that map, I can zoom in, and there is a dot about 2 miles from my house.  I always wonder if that is actually me... or if someone else in my neck of the woods does it too...  My node may be part of the ones consolidated into my service provider.

Mine was in the middle of a lake.

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 36) IS OUT NOW!

Feel free to have a read Monero OGs.

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-36

Cheers,
John

[tifozi]

Noticed HavenoDEX raised their target of 755 XMR recently (within a span of 3-4 days ?)

A few things are just conjectures at this point and I could be totally wrong about these, but this is what I think is true in the XMR ecosystem

1) A VAST majority of coins are being hoarded and hodl'd despite the utility and cash like fungibility provided by XMR. The community has been advocating spending for years now, and it is being used as such as well, but there are whales and orcas out there who will just not spend, advocate, contribute to the ecosystem. This is both a complaint and maybe tiny bit of appreciation for them on my part (with their stance). They value it immensely and have positioned themselves in case of future success without having to shill nonsense, propaganda, lies, orders from the shadow govt that has taken over crypto in general and BTC in particular.

But they must contribute to Monero projects. Simply storing in cold wallets is not doing the right thing. It is a shame that only ~200 people contributed. We are talking about Monero flippening BTC ? Cannot be serious with such a poor turnout for what is an extremely important base for Monero to spring from. The equivalent of the ask would be filled in 5 mins if it were BTC or ETH even though everyone is just hodling and not spending in these chains.

2) BTC and Crypto world has been completely taken over by corporates, VCs and shadow govts who are driving an agenda on behalf of their masters. Everyone is acting like a puppet that wants an invite into the WEF club. The USD was never meant to be beaten. What was going to be beaten was an emergence of a stronger competitor. So why not create it, or more easily capture it given complete lack of privacy and fungibility.

3) Roger Ver recently said that it is unfortunate that there are not many Monero derivatives market because he wanted to short Monero and buy Puts. Along the lines of these, he also mentioned the tired old vitriol that was first started by the BTC group several years ago about hidden prints or difficulty of auditing the supply. He isn't the only one who has ragged about this. Everyone who has bought Bitcoin in the last 3-4 years and not an early entrant give it their all in attacking Monero with this vector.

To all of them I have to say, make up your mind. Don't complain about no coins being out there to purchase and an infinite undetected supply at the same time.

Bitcoin maximalism has affected Monero the most. It is quite an interesting disorder to see sometimes when even a $10 investor in Bitcoin nowadays suddenly starts preaching to others about "Sound Money".

[sech1]

A VAST majority of coins are being hoarded and hodl'd despite the utility and cash like fungibility provided by XMR.

I can only partially agree on that point. Some coins are in long-term hold for sure, but the reality is that Monero is being used much more than BTC. Daily Monero transaction count is currently 8-10% of Bitcoin's despite being only 1/200 of BTC market cap. XMR almost overtook BTC on CoinCards: https://nitter.net/CoinCards/status/1508324025256202246

[tokeweed]

While price does its thing from day to day, anyone can run a node. Just do it, you'll learn a thing or two about the network along the way as well. We need more nodes for the day Monero inevitably hits the spotlight (and people are forced to pay the price of XMR's value).

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

I have run a node for years...  On that map, I can zoom in, and there is a dot about 2 miles from my house.  I always wonder if that is actually me... or if someone else in my neck of the woods does it too...  My node may be part of the ones consolidated into my service provider.

Mine was in the middle of a lake.

Boating accident?  

Anyway check out the price.  Seems like XMR has not been playing along with market shenanigans and is down just a tad over 2% while most of the alts in the market are down more than 5%.  BTC is down a tad over 4% right now.  

Some hot takes:  XMR will rise in CMC during the next bear market.  And If the merge happens and it doesn't implode ETH, it will make BTC maxis sweat by making the gap in CMC too close for comfort.  It could even threaten a flippening.

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 37) IS OUT NOW!

Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read.

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-37

[cAPSLOCK]

Well... seems a lot of alts are popping a little bit.  But would you look at Monero?  It looks like one of the strongest of the bunch.

Seems to me the resistance will be at 0.0054?


Looking good in BTC and USD right now...

[Hueristic]

I've always been a bitcoin and Monero bull but have always thought of BTC as being the store of value for the ngu tech but it seems like we may be hitting a point where the tweeters are realizing Moneros value and we may see the value proposition sooner rather than later.

IOW I think the next few months are critical.

@Caps..Hope your weathering the coof reasonably, being vaxed helped me alot imo. <<<--- not gonna post this in wo as don't need to hear the insane asylum lose their shit.

[cAPSLOCK]

I've always been a bitcoin and Monero bull but have always thought of BTC as being the store of value for the ngu tech but it seems like we may be hitting a point where the tweeters are realizing Moneros value and we may see the value proposition sooner rather than later.

IOW I think the next few months are critical.

Could not agree more with this.

Hard to say if it happens or not.  But as a Bitcoin maxi who saw Monero as singularly unique this is the exact moment I have been waiting to see for 6 years.  Or at least it looks like the beginning of that.  Where Monero might decouple and run because of it's unique value prop.

There was a reason that between 2014-2016 THIS topic was one of the most active threads on this whole place.  And that reason was driven by the fact that a great deal of Bitcoinners saw what we saw.  That this alt coin was kind of special.

I concede that it was a alt romance like most any of them... A narrative that challenges BTC, or offers something seemingly of value.  But I hold TO THIS DAY that this narrative has only gotten stronger over the time while the others have paled.  ETH?  Is already collapsing under it's own weight.  It will be around forever probably, a playground at the edges where good ideas are worked out, and then pinned to BTC. 

But there is no way for Bitcoin to do what Monero does yet.  And it will take YEARS for Bitcoin to catch up in this regard. If it even can!

The same thing that lit this alt up back in those early days for US is going to happen with the masses too.  The herd is HERE for Bitcoin... but most of it is yet to come for Montango.

@Caps..Hope your weathering the coof reasonably, being vaxed helped me alot imo. <<<--- not gonna post this in wo as don't need to hear the insane asylum lose their shit.

Ha!  Thanks man, yes.  Just a bad sore throat, and feeling pitiful having to isolate from my wife.  

I was "double vaxxed" But it's been a good amount of time now...  First was in Feb 20 and the second ~ May or so?

Can't say whether my experience would have been better or worse another way.  Too subjective I guess.  But i *HAVE* avoided the damn thing since at least 3/2020.  From what I have read, and come to understand this may be the best of all worlds...  Hopefully my immunity will be as strong as it can be after this. I tend to see this whole circus with a great deal of nuance.  Which I feel is horribly missing from most folks who pick a side and reinforce their biases to f1it their story. 

And it is sad that the WO has gotten so out of hand.  It's like all of us having to have a decent conversation of the insane babbling of a few people lol.

[smooth]

And it is sad that the WO has gotten so out of hand.

I'm trying to remember when it wasn't.

I've got nothing.