Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included.

[suchmoon]

0.00% lets see .

my understanding is that 0.00 is is actually an interval between >-0.01; <+0.01, and even for this interval the award should have been roughly 10-12X from a statistical point of view.

The probability of it being exactly +/-0.00X with X being less than 5, rounded to 0.00 IS smaller still (about 1/25 of each other interval).

Bitcoinwisdom's percentages are rounded to two decimal places, so I think it would show 0.00 only if the actual percentage is > -0.005 and < 0.005 (because 0.005 and up would round to 0.01).

So yeah, the double reward is grossly unfair if that's what you're trying to say but there is no way I'm going to offer 2.5 BTC for it

Our other cat says +1.26 to +1.5.

Personally I think it will likely be a little higher, but there aren't many slots this late in the game...

It's fun what this thread has become. Kind of like a crowded craps table 

Early cat gets the worm. Although with the hashrate still wobbling around unchanged almost halfway into the cycle - it's pretty much a gamble anyway, whether you're making an early or a late guess.

[mavericklm]

it's pretty much a gamble anyway, whether you're making an early or a late guess.

200% true

now for me will be perfect for the diff to not go up at all from this point and max .25% down

isn't .25% interval a bit too big, and restrictive in number of gamblers? maybe .1% is better and also easier

[philipma1957]

it's pretty much a gamble anyway, whether you're making an early or a late guess.

200% true

now for me will be perfect for the diff to not go up at all from this point and max .25% down

isn't .25% interval a bit too big, and restrictive in number of gamblers? maybe .1% is better and also easier

no one is gambling  as no one is putting up any coin.  It is a free promo.

Now if you wanted to charge a fee more players is better.

Since it is free if the number was .1     -20 to +20 is  400 players   vs 160 players under current rules.

It is hard  to keep track now.

Back to topic we are at

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.40%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,271,445,116 (+3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1205 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):   350,555,257 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   9:45 (3.4 minutes ago)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts



feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj

----------------------- 144 is  normal 0%
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under
feb 25  161 blocks     17 over
feb 26  145 blocks       1 over
feb 27  155 blocks      11 over
feb 28  141 blocks        3 under

6 full days = 872   normal = 864   we are 0.92 % over  if you include part of feb 22 we are around 1.15%

[alh]

I'll take +1.01% to 1.25%

[jmumich]

it's pretty much a gamble anyway, whether you're making an early or a late guess.

200% true

now for me will be perfect for the diff to not go up at all from this point and max .25% down

isn't .25% interval a bit too big, and restrictive in number of gamblers? maybe .1% is better and also easier

no one is gambling  as no one is putting up any coin.  It is a free promo.

Now if you wanted to charge a fee more players is better.

Since it is free if the number was .1     -20 to +20 is  400 players   vs 160 players under current rules.

It is hard  to keep track now.

Back to topic we are at

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.40%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,271,445,116 (+3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1205 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):   350,555,257 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   9:45 (3.4 minutes ago)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts



feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj

----------------------- 144 is  normal 0%
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under
feb 25  161 blocks     17 over
feb 26  145 blocks       1 over
feb 27  155 blocks      11 over
feb 28  141 blocks        3 under

6 full days = 872   normal = 864   we are 0.92 % over  if you include part of feb 22 we are around 1.15%

I put together a Google sheet that, if I did it right, should track the current day's status live (you might need to go to Tools -> Script Editor -> Run -> currentBlockNumber if the data isn't current, it should then stay live. This is definitely a work-in-progress, has to be updated by hand at midnight EST for now, and I'm sure there's more than a few mistakes (our numbers are a bit off, for one), so feel free to use, criticize, or ignore.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

[suchmoon]

FINAL LIST

Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

NEW ENTRIES FOR THE REWARD ARE NOT ALLOWED ANYMORE, but please feel free to speculate about how wrong your original guess was etc 

wayneyoyo -3.26 to -3.50%
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
Window2Wall -2.51 to -2.75%
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
valkir -0.76 to -1.00%
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%
alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%

[suchmoon]

I put together a Google sheet that, if I did it right, should track the current day's status live (you might need to go to Tools -> Script Editor -> Run -> currentBlockNumber if the data isn't current, it should then stay live. This is definitely a work-in-progress, has to be updated by hand at midnight EST for now, and I'm sure there's more than a few mistakes (our numbers are a bit off, for one), so feel free to use, criticize, or ignore.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

I think it looks great.

[philipma1957]

it's pretty much a gamble anyway, whether you're making an early or a late guess.

200% true

now for me will be perfect for the diff to not go up at all from this point and max .25% down

isn't .25% interval a bit too big, and restrictive in number of gamblers? maybe .1% is better and also easier

no one is gambling  as no one is putting up any coin.  It is a free promo.

Now if you wanted to charge a fee more players is better.

Since it is free if the number was .1     -20 to +20 is  400 players   vs 160 players under current rules.

It is hard  to keep track now.

Back to topic we are at

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.40%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,271,445,116 (+3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1205 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):   350,555,257 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   9:45 (3.4 minutes ago)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts



feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj

----------------------- 144 is  normal 0%
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under
feb 25  161 blocks     17 over
feb 26  145 blocks       1 over
feb 27  155 blocks      11 over
feb 28  141 blocks        3 under

6 full days = 872   normal = 864   we are 0.92 % over  if you include part of feb 22 we are around 1.15%

I put together a Google sheet that, if I did it right, should track the current day's status live (you might need to go to Tools -> Script Editor -> Run -> currentBlockNumber if the data isn't current, it should then stay live. This is definitely a work-in-progress, has to be updated by hand at midnight EST for now, and I'm sure there's more than a few mistakes (our numbers are a bit off, for one), so feel free to use, criticize, or ignore.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

very nice work on that google sheet.

 right now at 925 am east coast time we are at +1.16%  .

  This is a current live number and in an hour a 10ph farm could turn online for the first time thus moving the 1.16 to 2.22.  I am glad to see you took the time to give us a live number.  thanks again.

we are now at 0.72%    120 pm east coast time  that is the live number.

[philipma1957]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

that sheet basically takes both www.bitcoincharts.com

and http://btc.blockr.io/charts   combines the two and make it real time.

 I just checked the google sheet and at 1036 pm we are at a real time 0.00% !!


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  has  (+2.42%)  for a future prediction



Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,814,895,004 (+2.42%)
Adjust time:   After 985 Blocks, About 6.8 days                            the projected number is for 985 more blocks.
Hashrate(?):   335,785,423 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   22:35 (4.8 minutes ago)

[notlist3d]

I'm pretty happy with this.  It appears its going to be a small increase which considering BTC having a little increase all is fine with me.

[philipma1957]

I'm pretty happy with this.  It appears its going to be a small increase which considering BTC having a little increase all is fine with me.

I would love -1 to + 1 .  then have  btc go to 315 or so.

[philipma1957]

 The live number at 947 am New Jersey USA time  is +0.82%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is projecting (+3.55%)   we have 909 blocks to go and price is 255 usd

[jmumich]

Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.

So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.

My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.

Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.

Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..

[philipma1957]

Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.

So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.

My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.

Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.

Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..

I do appreciate your work on this.  As far as I know you are the only person offing a 'real' time number.

I danced around it with bitcoincharts and blockr.io  but your spread sheet nailed it.

It is a valuable number used with bitcoinwisdom and current  BTC price  it reallys helps to judge the next diff numbers

[tlhIlwI]

I've been watching BitcoinWisdom jumping above, below, and occasionally within my 3.76 - 4.0 guess which has been fun.  Today it is farther away (4.98 at the moment).  Still plenty of time though...

[philipma1957]

I've been watching BitcoinWisdom jumping above, below, and occasionally within my 3.76 - 4.0 guess which has been fun.  Today it is farther away (4.98 at the moment).  Still plenty of time though...

price went up so more miners went on line.

I think we are now past 280 usd a coin

[Swordsoffreedom]

FINAL LIST
Please feel free to speculate about how wrong your original guess was etc  

Still a few days to go but ha-ha with that range of people someones going to hit the mark
Think it might decrease difficulty a bit more but at 5% that's about right given the price rises

[armedmilitia]

Just popping in here to gloat about my soon-to-be victory! 

You know, you can manipulate this contest a bit if you manage to find the last block of the period. You can adjust the block timestamp up to an hour ahead or behind the current time to actually push the difficulty a tiny bit down or up.

I'll blame it on this manipulation if I lose.

[mavericklm]

lookin' at the btc price trend   i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under,  we may see negative dif again

[RedhatCAT]

lookin' at the btc price trend   i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under,  we may see negative dif again

I am not sure the chances of the price being under $220 for long enough to make a difference are very good. There is only ~4.4 days left until the next adjustment and the price would need to be below that level at least a good two to three days prior to the adjustment in order for it to have any meaningful impact on the difficulty change.

I would say it is more likely that more miners will be turned back on as the price has recently increased