ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[lophie]

I've said it before, there is a huge incentive for friedcat to withhold as much (and communicate as little) as he can justify from his paying dividends in order to

1) Bolster the company in the longer term through reinvestment
2) Not give strategic guidance to his competitors
3) Increase his holdings in the company and the lowest possible purchase price prior to more public actions

That said, the average hashrate was never sustained over 60TH/S. So, unless friedcat made more money selling products than he would have mining from them, there is not a victory. However, considering the markup and the fact that nothing ever sold will ROI in bitcoin, and the obvious opportunity to completely dominate asic sales for months, its possible that sourcing has been nearly as much of an issue for friedcat as it has been for everyone else in this space. Who knows. I do know that blades are already more price competitive than anything else shipping and that they likely still have an incredible markup (which we will soon learn about if they continue to drop in price).
 
Either he's totally beaten, giving up, or doing what a smart and rational actor would. Place your bets either way.

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

Are you suggesting his competition is not acting rationally, since they have all released their plans?

Points 1 and 3 sound pretty similar, by the way.

The competitors are acting rationally but they act different than ASICMINEr because they have a different history of such success and different position in the market. Hence it is rational for F.C. to act this way.

[conv3rsion]

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

That is not and has never been his business model. He has never

1) Accepted preorders
2) Given planned prices or specs
3) Announced availability dates for new products

Friedcat is the anti BFL. Some people appreciate that. Potential "customers" who want to preorder vaporware are not his market.

If what I'm suggesting is true, that his biggest issues are sourcing-related, then he has worked at every step to maximize profit correctly and rationally.

[Vycid]

I've said it before, there is a huge incentive for friedcat to withhold as much (and communicate as little) as he can justify from his paying dividends in order to

1) Bolster the company in the longer term through reinvestment
2) Not give strategic guidance to his competitors
3) Increase his holdings in the company and the lowest possible purchase price prior to more public actions

That said, the average hashrate was never sustained over 60TH/S. So, unless friedcat made more money selling products than he would have mining from them, there is not a victory. However, considering the markup and the fact that nothing ever sold will ROI in bitcoin, and the obvious opportunity to completely dominate asic sales for months, its possible that sourcing has been nearly as much of an issue for friedcat as it has been for everyone else in this space. Who knows. I do know that blades are already more price competitive than anything else shipping and that they likely still have an incredible markup (which we will soon learn about if they continue to drop in price).
 
Either he's totally beaten, giving up, or doing what a smart and rational actor would. Place your bets either way.

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

Are you suggesting his competition is not acting rationally, since they have all released their plans?

Points 1 and 3 sound pretty similar, by the way.

The competitors are acting rationally but they act different than ASICMINEr because they have a different history of such success and different position in the market. Hence it is rational for F.C. to act this way.

That doesn't account for the lost sales FC is suffering. Reputation alone doesn't mean his product will be cheaper or more efficient than the competition (who are actually largely more qualified to be making ASICs), so without information people will choose Cointerra or HashFast or whatever.

It WOULD be rational for FC to say nothing if he has an inferior product.

[Vycid]

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

That is not and has never been his business model. He has never

1) Accepted preorders
2) Given planned prices or specs
3) Announced availability dates for new products

Friedcat is the anti BFL. Some people appreciate that. Potential "customers" who want to preorder vaporware are not his market.

If what I'm suggesting is true, that his biggest issues are sourcing-related, then he has worked at every step to maximize profit correctly and rationally.

He's never needed to release specs before because he never had competition.

He's not the "anti-BFL", come on. He's a businessman, and a good one, and he understands the importance of announcing his product.

[conv3rsion]

That doesn't account for the lost sales FC is suffering. Reputation alone doesn't mean his product will be cheaper or more efficient than the competition (who are actually largely more qualified to be making ASICs), so without information people will choose Cointerra or HashFast or whatever.

It WOULD be rational for FC to say nothing if he has an inferior product.

Friedcat has had to stop taking orders at least twice for a short period in the last 2 months.

He is not losing sales of products he does not have.

[lophie]

I've said it before, there is a huge incentive for friedcat to withhold as much (and communicate as little) as he can justify from his paying dividends in order to

1) Bolster the company in the longer term through reinvestment
2) Not give strategic guidance to his competitors
3) Increase his holdings in the company and the lowest possible purchase price prior to more public actions

That said, the average hashrate was never sustained over 60TH/S. So, unless friedcat made more money selling products than he would have mining from them, there is not a victory. However, considering the markup and the fact that nothing ever sold will ROI in bitcoin, and the obvious opportunity to completely dominate asic sales for months, its possible that sourcing has been nearly as much of an issue for friedcat as it has been for everyone else in this space. Who knows. I do know that blades are already more price competitive than anything else shipping and that they likely still have an incredible markup (which we will soon learn about if they continue to drop in price).
 
Either he's totally beaten, giving up, or doing what a smart and rational actor would. Place your bets either way.

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

Are you suggesting his competition is not acting rationally, since they have all released their plans?

Points 1 and 3 sound pretty similar, by the way.

The competitors are acting rationally but they act different than ASICMINEr because they have a different history of such success and different position in the market. Hence it is rational for F.C. to act this way.

That doesn't account for the lost sales FC is suffering. Reputation alone doesn't mean his product will be cheaper or more efficient than the competition (who are actually largely more qualified to be making ASICs), so without information people will choose Cointerra or HashFast or whatever.

It WOULD be rational for FC to say nothing if he has an inferior product.

ASICMINER was different from the beginning. Hash first then sell hardware later. Until gen2 are online don't expect an update with an announcement about "available" gen2 products. It will be exactly like when ASICMINER started booming. Hash first, Sell hardware later.

[conv3rsion]

He's not the "anti-BFL", come on. He's a businessman, and a good one, and he understands the importance of announcing his product.

Oh he's a good businessman but he hasn't ever pre announced a product just because he hasn't needed to (even though should have had to because he DID have other competitors taking preorders the entire time).

Right, actually nothing has changed. Gotcha.


You know, you suck at logic.

[Vycid]

I've said it before, there is a huge incentive for friedcat to withhold as much (and communicate as little) as he can justify from his paying dividends in order to

1) Bolster the company in the longer term through reinvestment
2) Not give strategic guidance to his competitors
3) Increase his holdings in the company and the lowest possible purchase price prior to more public actions

That said, the average hashrate was never sustained over 60TH/S. So, unless friedcat made more money selling products than he would have mining from them, there is not a victory. However, considering the markup and the fact that nothing ever sold will ROI in bitcoin, and the obvious opportunity to completely dominate asic sales for months, its possible that sourcing has been nearly as much of an issue for friedcat as it has been for everyone else in this space. Who knows. I do know that blades are already more price competitive than anything else shipping and that they likely still have an incredible markup (which we will soon learn about if they continue to drop in price).
 
Either he's totally beaten, giving up, or doing what a smart and rational actor would. Place your bets either way.

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

Are you suggesting his competition is not acting rationally, since they have all released their plans?

Points 1 and 3 sound pretty similar, by the way.

The competitors are acting rationally but they act different than ASICMINEr because they have a different history of such success and different position in the market. Hence it is rational for F.C. to act this way.

That doesn't account for the lost sales FC is suffering. Reputation alone doesn't mean his product will be cheaper or more efficient than the competition (who are actually largely more qualified to be making ASICs), so without information people will choose Cointerra or HashFast or whatever.

It WOULD be rational for FC to say nothing if he has an inferior product.

ASICMINER was different from the beginning. Hash first then sell hardware later. Until gen2 are online don't expect an update with an announcement about "available" gen2 products. It will be exactly like when ASICMINER started booming. Hash first, Sell hardware later.

Then we should understand that to mean that FC doesn't expect to have enough hardware to sell anytime soon. I maintain that FC is not a idiot.

What he has been doing with all the bitcoins he's been siphoning from dividends is beyond me.

[conv3rsion]

ASICMINER was different from the beginning. Hash first then sell hardware later. Until gen2 are online don't expect an update with an announcement about "available" gen2 products. It will be exactly like when ASICMINER started booming. Hash first, Sell hardware later.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

Nothing has changed

[Vycid]

ASICMINER was different from the beginning. Hash first then sell hardware later. Until gen2 are online don't expect an update with an announcement about "available" gen2 products. It will be exactly like when ASICMINER started booming. Hash first, Sell hardware later.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

Nothing has changed

Except it has. FC gave frequent updates during the early days. Check his post history, I'm on my phone. I'll dig out quotes later.

[lophie]

Well then I would need some digging too for my estimation. Judging by what happened with gen1 after a large amount of funds were moved from the savings of ASICMINER. After 3 weeks we should be expecting a spike upward for ASICMINER hashrate. So enjoy 2-3 weeks of free money on arbitraging and price fluctuations guys.

 I don't have a heart for daytrading so I am going to hold and read.... with alot of popcorn.

[tinus42]

I've said it before, there is a huge incentive for friedcat to withhold as much (and communicate as little) as he can justify from his paying dividends in order to

1) Bolster the company in the longer term through reinvestment
2) Not give strategic guidance to his competitors
3) Increase his holdings in the company and the lowest possible purchase price prior to more public actions

That said, the average hashrate was never sustained over 60TH/S. So, unless friedcat made more money selling products than he would have mining from them, there is not a victory. However, considering the markup and the fact that nothing ever sold will ROI in bitcoin, and the obvious opportunity to completely dominate asic sales for months, its possible that sourcing has been nearly as much of an issue for friedcat as it has been for everyone else in this space. Who knows. I do know that blades are already more price competitive than anything else shipping and that they likely still have an incredible markup (which we will soon learn about if they continue to drop in price).
 
Either he's totally beaten, giving up, or doing what a smart and rational actor would. Place your bets either way.

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

Are you suggesting his competition is not acting rationally, since they have all released their plans?

Yes pre-ordering has proved to be such a success story. Just look at BFL and Avalon. The people who pre-ordered with them are just elated. So there will be no risk pre-ordering with new unknowns.

[ajk]

Friedcat probably had so much more time prior to having to deal with 1000's of Eruptor blades, the share price on BTCT is still only around 7-8% of the shares in circulation, I also believe that while he probably had a long term plan with the amount of competition coming to the market he is trying to adjust to have the best outcome for his company and investors, the company is still in its infancy in the overall outlook of things and we have witnessed first hand how quickly mining hardware outdates,

considering that I could literally crash the price to the ground by myself if I transferred my direct shares to BTCT I believe it is controlled by to small of a number of people for it to be accurate, people also tend to panic horribly with any type of news, what is FC doing withholding the dividends? probably exactly what he said hes going to do..

I am undoubtedly going to be purchasing at least 50K-100K USD worth of shares as it continues down because it very well might since most are investing on BTCT for the dividends and they are currently not that good, however, that still doesnt mean that FC  will not deliver on his promises considering that he has probably well over 1M USD for his reinvestment plans,

[Vycid]

I've said it before, there is a huge incentive for friedcat to withhold as much (and communicate as little) as he can justify from his paying dividends in order to

1) Bolster the company in the longer term through reinvestment
2) Not give strategic guidance to his competitors
3) Increase his holdings in the company and the lowest possible purchase price prior to more public actions

That said, the average hashrate was never sustained over 60TH/S. So, unless friedcat made more money selling products than he would have mining from them, there is not a victory. However, considering the markup and the fact that nothing ever sold will ROI in bitcoin, and the obvious opportunity to completely dominate asic sales for months, its possible that sourcing has been nearly as much of an issue for friedcat as it has been for everyone else in this space. Who knows. I do know that blades are already more price competitive than anything else shipping and that they likely still have an incredible markup (which we will soon learn about if they continue to drop in price).
 
Either he's totally beaten, giving up, or doing what a smart and rational actor would. Place your bets either way.

Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.

Are you suggesting his competition is not acting rationally, since they have all released their plans?

Yes pre-ordering has proved to be such a success story. Just look at BFL and Avalon. The people who pre-ordered with them are just elated. So there will be no risk pre-ordering with new unknowns.

That is exactly why people would wait for AM if they gave an update.

But instead AM is choosing to be an unknown. Why?

[Vycid]

considering that I could literally crash the price to the ground by myself if I transferred my direct shares to BTCT I believe it is controlled by to small of a number of people for it to be accurate, people also tend to panic horribly with any type of news, what is FC doing withholding the dividends? probably exactly what he said hes going to do..

You're not the only one that could crash this thing by yourself, bud. Someone else is probably going to beat you to it. eb3full is probably kicking himself for not selling everything at 2.7.

[ajk]

I realize this.. Bud, Im saying that is why it is hardly a good indicator of the price considering I am only a medium sized investor of the company and could do this,

Ok? but in the grand scheme of things he bought at the IPO so if he is a glass half full kind of investor, Like most good ones are, He has made much more than his initial investment,

if you dwell on the negative you will never be able to move on to your next play and make the best trading decisions,

you also state why FC Isnt giving updates on his Gen2,

1. FC Doesnt take preorders and anytime he has hardware it literally sells out in minutes,
2. He currently doesnt have hardware to sell and is working on his new line of products
3. When he has undeniable proof he most likely will post an update

unlike you, people who have wealth have a harder time day trading, they simply cannot in this market since it completely lacks market depth

[Vycid]

I realize this.. Bud, Im saying that is why it is hardly a good indicator of the price considering I am only a medium sized investor of the company and could do this,

Ok? but in the grand scheme of things he bought at the IPO so if he is a glass half full kind of investor, Like most good ones are, He has made much more than his initial investment,

if you dwell on the negative you will never be able to move on to your next play and make the best trading decisions,

you also state why FC Isnt giving updates on his Gen2,

1. FC Doesnt take preorders and anytime he has hardware it literally sells out in minutes,
2. He currently doesnt have hardware to sell and is working on his new line of products
3. When he has undeniable proof he most likely will

unlike you, people who have wealth have a harder time day trading, they simply cannot in this market since it completely lacks market depth

It completely lacks depth because nobody wants to buy the metric fuckton of shares early investors like you own. The artificial scarcity on the exchanges is the only thing keeping this clown-boat afloat at this point, and if this trend continues that is about to change.

You can stick your head in the sand and pretend there's a good reason a CEO shouldn't communicate with his shareholders, but I'm firmly of the position there isn't.

[ajk]

Sure... it also has nothing to do with the fact that BTCT is a tiny exchange or anything, look at the 30D # of BTC traded of all the securities, some BTC Exchanges do this amount in less than a week, even the non liquid MTGox,

I am also not an early investor of AM I just believe in the company and FC, if you think AM Is a clownboat I cant imagine what other companies you think is a good one,

you enjoy making your money and ill enjoy making mine but as said prior it gets old seeing only you post over and over in this thread to protect your put options which equate to my dividends weekly
 
Addition to your edit: I never said that CEO communication wasnt important, that is putting words in my mouth and also a rhetorical point, I just dont need someone to hold my hand when I am making my trading decisions like others seem to,

Good day and enjoy Im all done

[Vycid]

Sure... it also has nothing to do with the fact that BTCT is a tiny exchange or anything, look at the 30D # of BTC traded of all the securities, some BTC Exchanges to this amount in less than a week, even the non liquid MTGox,

I am also not an early investor of AM I just believe in the company and FC, if you think AM Is a clownboat I cant imagine what other companies you think is a good one,

you enjoy making your money and ill enjoy making mine but as said prior it gets old seeing only you post over and over in this thread to protect your put options which equate to my dividends weekly
 
The wise do at once what the fool does at last

I like your signature. Very sage.

[freedomno1]

At a guess its a better bet to sell the hardware while there's strong demand. It's impossible to know what kind of hash rate will be needed a month from now, maybe massively parallel chips or something will blitz current hardware and be ready to ship and if something like that happens then big investments will be lost. The best spot would probably be to maintain a good hardware business until things settle down and be ready to jump with any developments.

Early on in this thread Friedcat was asked if he could notify shareholders should anyone try to buy enough hardware to attack the network. I'd be curious to know if anyone has tried (doubt it, they'd just use multiple buyers) and if retailers, franchises etc. are giving good diversification.

I agree, it does make sense to sell off the hardware if you know what your putting up to replace it.
The reason being that you might be able to get a better price than just holding onto something from the old gen when your new stuff arrives.
Basic put a similar motion through the other day so it does make good business sense with the unknown future hash incoming.