ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[empoweoqwj]

That'd be awesome! Are you sure gen 2 is just about to be deployed? I find it really hard to even fathom what timespans or dates all the announcements are targeting...

Without any info from AM it is impossible to predict when it is going to be deployed. If I remember correct they ran into problems with 65/55nm tech for gen2 and were looking in using 45nm instead. Also gen3 is supposed to use 28nm which is supposedly the best cost efficiency available with current technology.

As literally every asic manufacturer has discovered, making asics is not an easy/straightforward task. Nearly every manufacturer has run into delays and under performing specs which is why many respect asicminer for not speculating on future hardware performance.

Does nobody find it strange that you can run into problems with 65/55nm tech, but able to implement 45nm .......... sounds the wrong way round!

[webbrowser]

One thing to keep in mind:

Say FC does come out with guns blazing and reclaims the 10% hash. Total weekly blocks (on average) for 10% of the network is right around 100 blocks,(6 per hour * 24 hours * 7 days)

100 blocks times 25 btc = 2500 btc /week.

Those redistributed to 400,000 shareholders = 0.00625 per share

At $530 per btc that is $3.31 per share per week.

At $1000 per btc, that is $6.25 per share per week.

At $5000 per btc that is $31.25 per share per week.

With btc at $5000 you would need only 32 shares to make $1000 per week in dividends.


With btc rising as rapidly as they are, the need to capture a good percentage of the global hash becomes critical. Of course, I did not remove expenses, or add franchising, or hardware sales, etc. I just wanted to show what you could do just by capturing a good chunk of the network hash.

If you thought btc would rise 10-fold, why not just accumulate btc?

[explorer]

One thing to keep in mind:

Say FC does come out with guns blazing and reclaims the 10% hash. Total weekly blocks (on average) for 10% of the network is right around 100 blocks,(6 per hour * 24 hours * 7 days)

100 blocks times 25 btc = 2500 btc /week.

Those redistributed to 400,000 shareholders = 0.00625 per share

At $530 per btc that is $3.31 per share per week.

At $1000 per btc, that is $6.25 per share per week.

At $5000 per btc that is $31.25 per share per week.

With btc at $5000 you would need only 32 shares to make $1000 per week in dividends.


With btc rising as rapidly as they are, the need to capture a good percentage of the global hash becomes critical. Of course, I did not remove expenses, or add franchising, or hardware sales, etc. I just wanted to show what you could do just by capturing a good chunk of the network hash.

If you thought btc would rise 10-fold, why not just accumulate btc?

You would. An income stream is priceless though, so some thought to benefits without consuming your principle is in order.  In the BTC world, AM is still about the steadiest safe earner, not to mention highest yielding. Assuming dividends and prices have stabilized. Its been several days, you know!

[jimmothy]

That'd be awesome! Are you sure gen 2 is just about to be deployed? I find it really hard to even fathom what timespans or dates all the announcements are targeting...

Without any info from AM it is impossible to predict when it is going to be deployed. If I remember correct they ran into problems with 65/55nm tech for gen2 and were looking in using 45nm instead. Also gen3 is supposed to use 28nm which is supposedly the best cost efficiency available with current technology.

As literally every asic manufacturer has discovered, making asics is not an easy/straightforward task. Nearly every manufacturer has run into delays and under performing specs which is why many respect asicminer for not speculating on future hardware performance.

Does nobody find it strange that you can run into problems with 65/55nm tech, but able to implement 45nm .......... sounds the wrong way round!

Do you have any idea how chip design works? Neither do I but based on what info we are given it seems like something to do with the fabrication of 65/55nm that didn't work but a different fabricator capable of 45nm chips was instead being looked in to.


Everyone should definitely read this article for more info: http://thegenesisblock.com/new-asicminer-financial-statements-offer-performance-insight/

[hak8or]

One thing to keep in mind:

{Snip}

With btc rising as rapidly as they are, the need to capture a good percentage of the global hash becomes critical. Of course, I did not remove expenses, or add franchising, or hardware sales, etc. I just wanted to show what you could do just by capturing a good chunk of the network hash.

If you thought btc would rise 10-fold, why not just accumulate btc?

If BTC would rise, why not allow yourself for more risk by investing the BTC to make even more wealth? Though, based on my extremely laid back analysis (just looking at the share price graph), it seems that the more BTC rises, the lower these shares go. So it could result that you invest in asicminer and then make no serious gains since the share price fell relatively inverse to BTC value.

[hammurabi]

One thing to keep in mind:

{Snip}

With btc rising as rapidly as they are, the need to capture a good percentage of the global hash becomes critical. Of course, I did not remove expenses, or add franchising, or hardware sales, etc. I just wanted to show what you could do just by capturing a good chunk of the network hash.

If you thought btc would rise 10-fold, why not just accumulate btc?

If BTC would rise, why not allow yourself for more risk by investing the BTC to make even more wealth? Though, based on my extremely laid back analysis (just looking at the share price graph), it seems that the more BTC rises, the lower these shares go. So it could result that you invest in asicminer and then make no serious gains since the share price fell relatively inverse to BTC value.

It happens to be true.

But it might not be true if next gen chips were hashing multiplying invested coins.
This is what most of us anticipated without awareness of development issues.
And then... the shit hit the fan as they used to say.

[freedomno1]

Think we will start seeing sales revenue soon as a sidenote that and the dividends marginal as they are seem to be on a rising trend

[dexX7]

55 nm? 45 nm?

7. Research & Development
We had tried several different really intricate and speculative designs for 2014, based on the assumption being competitive in a fully saturated market (average return rate getting close to normal business' single digits per year). but originally with a limited channel/staff, it can be very difficult to fully explore them. So, we conducted interviews, and recently identified several exceptional people.

We will be spreading design risk by working on several designs simultaneously and having all other designs' info/simulation results fed back to the main design process. Our designs changed aggressively and the expected successful rate (on a working mask) drops compared to the standard flow so it has to be fully (wave-level) simulated before fabrication.

8. Financial Report
The next official ASICMINER Financial Report is scheduled to be released on October 20s. We had been in the process of accumulating reserves for a two-year-based small lab (all salaries) and a full mask cost for 40nm for one month. Additional income may be reserved for other chip advancements.

[talnted]

Asicminer share price appears to be dropping pretty quick

[empoweoqwj]

Asicminer share price appears to be dropping pretty quick

With btc $600 @ mtgox, some people are just choosing to cash out @ $300 / AM share

[limbaugh]

Once the .5 wall is gone, it's free fall. It's going to be painful!

[AMuppInTime]

Once the .5 wall is gone, it's free fall. It's going to be painful!

on HL's price
Havelock's AM price is not to be blindly followed due to poor liquidity/volume on the exchange: looking at the order book you can see there are only 200 shares at .5. Back in the BTC-TC days you'd see the order stacks racking up 1k+ before going into smaller prices. HL lists 12K shares for market cap  (15K if you add the 1/100 security), BTC-TC had 26K+ - Meanwhile there are 200K+ direct shares for Asicminer out there... To me this means that the folks trying to cash out on the rising BTC price really only have one exchange to go to and are forcing the price down. Meanwhile the remaining 200K+ shares are fine without belonging to any exchange, with no clear way to exist (risky pos - but we're way low already).
Interestingly it appears that many folks decided to take their shares to direct instead of importing to Havelock when migrating out of the closing exchanges - I might be slightly off in the #s but the 1/100 pt AM100 only shows a market cap of 352K - equivalent to about 3520 Asicminer shares (it was 5000+ Asicminer shares not long ago) which could mean that people are either converting them up to AM1 or out.


on Asicminer's value fluctuations
Additionally Asicminer only really took off after the Apr BTC crash (250->100s). I feel a lot of folks who were in BTC then felt that investing in a mining business was a good way to do something more than just "park" their BTCs. I'd expect a similar scenario for the current times, and renewed interest in the shares once BTC deflates from a top, or friedcat starts increasing divs from sales.
Everyone wants to be holding Bitcoins because the valuation keeps going up ($600 today? $2,000 tomorrow!) while a few investors are running away from risks by selling their Asicminer shares without new investors showing up (the people who would buy Asicminer likely did then, or are thinking they're better off holding BTCs with the current rise). I feel we have run out of possible investors, which has created this price vacuum. Thankfully it means little to friedcat as Asicminer is fully funded already.I'm holding on to divs and sitting tight for now - remember every cat has 9 lives.

[ex-trader]

Additionally Asicminer only really took off after the Apr BTC crash (250->100s). I feel a lot of folks who were in BTC then felt that investing in a mining business was a good way to do something more than just "park" their BTCs.

Most buyers in the secondary markets are valuing based on divs alone, at thats the main determinent of value in the absence of other concrete information, the correlation is quite obvious in recent months (graph from the thegenesisblock.com)

[Zubilica]

Sorry to say,  but i believe that Havelock 400 shares buy order is based on inside trading. I have seen this before. Updates are discussed on AM Board then wild orders appear.

[101111]

FC started to withhold divs to pay for future wages and other expenses when btc was sub $150 (I'm kind of guessing this), and it sounded like he would need to do so for only, I dunno maybe 2 months? So would it be reasonable to expect a resumption of bigger divs given the current ( >$600 atm) btc price?

[limbaugh]

Looks like the wall won't not make it until Wed. Maybe a buying opportunity soon.

[minerpumpkin]

Sorry to say,  but i believe that Havelock 400 shares buy order is based on inside trading. I have seen this before. Updates are discussed on AM Board then wild orders appear.

Which would be a good sign for the stock price though, if someone with inside knowledge assumes the price to go up soon...

[101111]

Sorry to say,  but i believe that Havelock 400 shares buy order is based on inside trading. I have seen this before. Updates are discussed on AM Board then wild orders appear.

Which would be a good sign for the stock price though, if someone with inside knowledge assumes the price to go up soon...

Yeah, why are you sorry? A big buy order is good, it shows support.

[finlof]

Sorry to say,  but i believe that Havelock 400 shares buy order is based on inside trading. I have seen this before. Updates are discussed on AM Board then wild orders appear.

Which would be a good sign for the stock price though, if someone with inside knowledge assumes the price to go up soon...

Yeah, why are you sorry? A big buy order is good, it shows support.

you spoke too soon.  that buy order got eaten up quickly.  current buy price of 0.41

[KarmaShark]

Sorry to say,  but i believe that Havelock 400 shares buy order is based on inside trading. I have seen this before. Updates are discussed on AM Board then wild orders appear.

Which would be a good sign for the stock price though, if someone with inside knowledge assumes the price to go up soon...

Yeah, why are you sorry? A big buy order is good, it shows support.

you spoke too soon.  that buy order got eaten up quickly.  current buy price of 0.41

It was moved, down to 0.4.