[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx

[RationalSpeculator]

Website today is showing in US without warning!

[Abu22]

Website today is showing in US without warning!

Yea, that's the huge news that was gonna be released this month. US players can play now...Jokes aside, I think SDice does pretty much everything without warning..Intentional or not.

[Abu22]

Ok, fantastic. Negative profit this month! Fuck yes.

So before you make this more than 100% worthless.. What's the big announcement? The one that was meant to be disclosed at the end of the month...Not the start of this one.

And could you be honest, is this company even being taken seriously now? Or has it become some second thought hobby of yours Erik?

[pikeadz]

I remember the point when SD started going downhill.  It was in early February right when voorhees issued all those shares which halved the value of everyone's stock.  Remember when he said the price would recover to the true value (which was about .0076/share at the time) within 2 days?  Yeah, still waiting for that lol... I am so glad I sold this trash before it tanked.  The asset, the site, and the management.  What a joke.

[kingcrimson]

Don't think he really cares, he made a hell of a return selling these scam shares. I've got to praise people earlier in this topic who called it from the beginning.

[RationalSpeculator]

I am done with S.DICE.

Gave it a good run, held on until I simply saw no recovery in sight.

Erik, you have failed all of us share holders.

 

[RationalSpeculator]

Don't think he really cares, he made a hell of a return selling these scam shares. I've got to praise people earlier in this topic who called it from the beginning.

why scam?

[Abu22]

Don't think he really cares, he made a hell of a return selling these scam shares. I've got to praise people earlier in this topic who called it from the beginning.

why scam?

Step 1: Fill public with the idea this great new thing and promises of making it  work.
Step 2: Sell shares..If no shares..create more.
Step 3: (optional) - Add more expenses at random &/or increase employee salary (while paying it with arbitrary rules and lacking any consistency)
Step 4: Repeat from step 1 until the bullshit stops being listened to.

Then..claiming to explain everything...later.. again and again.

I'd say it fits the scam narrative pretty well.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

I think it's a lot far away from scam at this point. Just that evoorhees seems to hire some incompetent people, and pays close to nil attention to SDICE.

[MPOE-PR]

My sympathies. Indeed compared to investing in bitcoins, sdice has been a disaster the past months. Basically totally collapsing from around 0.0070 to the current 0.0020, losing 70% of it's btc value. It's rightful to feel bad about that.

I agree with you that they are undervalued. It's very simple, it returns an average 10% dividend, but $ earnings and $ value have been tenfolding in only 1 year. This means this extremely fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 10. That is ridiculous. Sure there is a lot of legal uncertainty but still. Normally such fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 50 (dividend 2%).

Well here's the thing, past 30 day volume (all PTs included) is 372,209 shares, or about 500-1k BTC. That's another way of saying nothing (about 0.1% of total corp mkt cap or thereabouts). So therefore:

A. Current price is reflective of not much with a view to nothing at all. The people holding it obviously aren't selling, the book hasn't much moved etc. Seems like a few speculators working on very little capital have been working themselves into a tizzy, going into some sort of downward spiral the past month or so. This trend can easily reverse in about five minutes, which leads us to:

B. Lay off all the analytical talk and buy some shares.

Obviously B may not be feasible for very practical reasons, but I do think all the excitement over what looks more like market inefficiency/immaturity that any sort of actual changes is perhaps a little over the top. S.DICE is not significantly different from whatever it was back in January, when it was trading at 3x current share prices, the dooglus reports still show it at 5x% of all network transactions, what exactly is the problem?

I doesn't take into account the fact of SD's competition. It's simply being out out competed. There are more and more sites popping up with better features, lower house odds and more invested developers

None of this matters, as has been discussed constantly since about August, as has been proven constantly since August. Anyone can make a website in about five minutes, that's not a business. S.DICE has the proven ability to pay 10s of ks of BTC to winners. No competitor has this. End of story, really.

SD is having it's cake cut slice by slice while it waits to be out performed by all these alternative sites. It will only survive a year if it acts now whilst it still is largely in the bitcoin community public eye. Otherwise this user base will slowly dwindle and diversify into all the other sites leaving SD a husk of a once potential filled 'business'.

By this sort of reasoning Coca Cola would not exist today. You have to at some point appreciate that the "developers matter", "a website is a business", "stuff has to happen!!!" ADD approach to life and everything else is specific to a very narrow group of people (young, mostly male, mostly poor, mostly urban etc) which doesn't translate into much social traction or broader relevance (if it did they'd have more sex and chill the fuck out). It's, in other words, a market nobody wants to sell to (this is why they mostly buy computer games rather than luxury cruises, sky and scooba gear, exotic vacations and other high value, high turnover pastimes).

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

A. Current price is reflective of not much with a view to nothing at all. The people holding it obviously aren't selling, the book hasn't much moved etc. Seems like a few speculators working on very little capital have been working themselves into a tizzy, going into some sort of downward spiral the past month or so. This trend can easily reverse in about five minutes, which leads us to:

That would mean none of the big investors want to acquire any more stake in S.DICE even with this 'undervalued' share price. Even if this is true, it's not positive.

I'm thinking that most people aren't selling because they believe that SDICE will still keep it's marketshare even without doing anything (which I disagree with) or that SDICE will add updates and promised features like account betting sometime soon. The situation of "nobody selling" is not going to continue forever (unless people lost their gpg keys). With every second the competitors gain more trust while offering features like actually instant betting.

Oh, and you need to explain where the costs are going to in detail (ie how it is calculated) to shareholders. Especially when you just hired a PR rep that has not signed in for a week. What are you paying them for?

[SatoshiDICE_PR]

A. Current price is reflective of not much with a view to nothing at all. The people holding it obviously aren't selling, the book hasn't much moved etc. Seems like a few speculators working on very little capital have been working themselves into a tizzy, going into some sort of downward spiral the past month or so. This trend can easily reverse in about five minutes, which leads us to:

That would mean none of the big investors want to acquire any more stake in S.DICE even with this 'undervalued' share price. Even if this is true, it's not positive.

I'm thinking that most people aren't selling because they believe that SDICE will still keep it's marketshare even without doing anything (which I disagree with) or that SDICE will add updates and promised features like account betting sometime soon. The situation of "nobody selling" is not going to continue forever (unless people lost their gpg keys). With every second the competitors gain more trust while offering features like actually instant betting.

Oh, and you need to explain where the costs are going to in detail (ie how it is calculated) to shareholders. Especially when you just hired a PR rep that has not signed in for a week. What are you paying them for?

Just because I have not logged in does not mean that I am not watching
A statement is being prepared to answer the questions and concerns brought up.
Best Regards
The Spirit of Satoshi

[Abu22]

My sympathies. Indeed compared to investing in bitcoins, sdice has been a disaster the past months. Basically totally collapsing from around 0.0070 to the current 0.0020, losing 70% of it's btc value. It's rightful to feel bad about that.

I agree with you that they are undervalued. It's very simple, it returns an average 10% dividend, but $ earnings and $ value have been tenfolding in only 1 year. This means this extremely fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 10. That is ridiculous. Sure there is a lot of legal uncertainty but still. Normally such fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 50 (dividend 2%).

Well here's the thing, past 30 day volume (all PTs included) is 372,209 shares, or about 500-1k BTC. That's another way of saying nothing (about 0.1% of total corp mkt cap or thereabouts). So therefore:

A. Current price is reflective of not much with a view to nothing at all. The people holding it obviously aren't selling, the book hasn't much moved etc. Seems like a few speculators working on very little capital have been working themselves into a tizzy, going into some sort of downward spiral the past month or so. This trend can easily reverse in about five minutes, which leads us to:

B. Lay off all the analytical talk and buy some shares.

Obviously B may not be feasible for very practical reasons, but I do think all the excitement over what looks more like market inefficiency/immaturity that any sort of actual changes is perhaps a little over the top. S.DICE is not significantly different from whatever it was back in January, when it was trading at 3x current share prices, the dooglus reports still show it at 5x% of all network transactions, what exactly is the problem?

I doesn't take into account the fact of SD's competition. It's simply being out out competed. There are more and more sites popping up with better features, lower house odds and more invested developers

None of this matters, as has been discussed constantly since about August, as has been proven constantly since August. Anyone can make a website in about five minutes, that's not a business. S.DICE has the proven ability to pay 10s of ks of BTC to winners. No competitor has this. End of story, really.

SD is having it's cake cut slice by slice while it waits to be out performed by all these alternative sites. It will only survive a year if it acts now whilst it still is largely in the bitcoin community public eye. Otherwise this user base will slowly dwindle and diversify into all the other sites leaving SD a husk of a once potential filled 'business'.

By this sort of reasoning Coca Cola would not exist today. You have to at some point appreciate that the "developers matter", "a website is a business", "stuff has to happen!!!" ADD approach to life and everything else is specific to a very narrow group of people (young, mostly male, mostly poor, mostly urban etc) which doesn't translate into much social traction or broader relevance (if it did they'd have more sex and chill the fuck out). It's, in other words, a market nobody wants to sell to (this is why they mostly buy computer games rather than luxury cruises, sky and scooba gear, exotic vacations and other high value, high turnover pastimes).

Holy shit... Where do I even start with that?

'Lay off the analytical talk and buy shares'... shit we're dealing with a pro here.
...

>Competition doesn't matter because SD can payout highest
>Everyone is a whale
>SD didn't grow from that initial small amount
>SD is being out performed feature wise... But people obviously dont use a website based on what they can do on it..they do it based on how much they can bet in a single tx.

SD can payout the most so that's the End of the story? Are you even reading what you write?

Why are you even following Bitcoin if you can't see the merit of finding alternatives to systems such as fiat that are unsuitable for sustained use.
Bitcoin was worthless but feature rich -> fiat was shit -> bitcoin grew in worth
gambleSiteX is worthless but feature rich -> SD is sh-...owing no competitive advantage -> gambleSiteX growths in worth

Both of these examples detract from worth of the out performing 'new' system.

Now..
You couldn't have picked a worse comparator thank Coca Cola...They're probably one of the fiercest competing companies out there! Are you that blind that you think Coke has even the Slightest similarity to SD. Tell me how long it takes for you to read each of the avenues they've expanded into https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Coca-Cola_brands Not only their product expansion but the sole advertising and promoting of their product is absurd.

Put away the keyboard and sit down, you're drunk.

Best Regards
The Spirit of Satoshi

Also why always sign with this? Are you 12? Top professionalism.

[MPOE-PR]

That would mean none of the big investors want to acquire any more stake in S.DICE even with this 'undervalued' share price. Even if this is true, it's not positive.

From my (limited) experience and from what I could get together eavesdropping on MPEx people, generally speaking investing works thusly: optimal chunks are decided (we want 1%, 0.1%, 10% of this company for strategic investors, we want 1%, 0.1%, 10% of our capital in this company for everyone else). This process is based on some sort of fundamental considerations, into which price (current or historical) does not figure. The trades are then executed (there may be some timing skulduggery involved here) and the desired positions entered. This situation continues until a new decision as to the optimal chunks is made (perhaps on a yearly review), after which more trades are executed to attain the new desired position.

I'm not saying it's positive necessarily, I'm not really discussing that angle. Just trying to make the point that not everybody is as last price driven as the average forum user - in a probably doomed attempt to restore some balance to the discussion. And when I say "not everybody" what I really mean is "no actual investor".

I'm thinking that most people aren't selling because they believe that SDICE will still keep it's marketshare even without doing anything (which I disagree with) or that SDICE will add updates and promised features like account betting sometime soon. The situation of "nobody selling" is not going to continue forever (unless people lost their gpg keys). With every second the competitors gain more trust while offering features like actually instant betting.

I suspect people are looking at the dividends and the market share, then try to read some of the forum discussion but quickly shrug and move on. Informal polling shows that not a single one of the larger investors we know of/are in contact with actually reads this forum.

Oh, and you need to explain where the costs are going to in detail (ie how it is calculated) to shareholders. Especially when you just hired a PR rep that has not signed in for a week. What are you paying them for?

Why are you telling me this?!

[greatscott]

Two things that I think may help instill a little bit more confidence:

(1) Switch to paying the dividend weekly. Even though this isn't normal, all the popular ASICMiner divs seem to be setting a precedent with this.

(2) Eric should probably get an independent audit done on the statistics by someone or a company who specializes in gaming. In particular, I think the standard deviation / variance on the game needs to be mapped out and have the min/max bet calculations reset correctly. Further, I'm guessing people have looked at this already, but it should be verified that that taking the top digits of a sha512 hash on txids is a good uniform distribution. Either way, making the stdev smaller should help reduce these profit swings and keep profits in the green with a higher probability.

[Abu22]

Two things that I think may help instill a little bit more confidence:

(1) Switch to paying the dividend weekly. Even though this isn't normal, all the popular ASICMiner divs seem to be setting a precedent with this.

(2) Eric should probably get an independent audit done on the statistics by someone or a company who specializes in gaming. In particular, I think the standard deviation / variance on the game needs to be mapped out and have the min/max bet calculations reset correctly. Further, I'm guessing people have looked at this already, but it should be verified that that taking the top digits of a sha512 hash on txids is a good uniform distribution. Either way, making the stdev smaller should help reduce these profit swings and keep profits in the green with a higher probability.

You must be new here. Good suggestions get ignored and burried with post of irrelevance. Shits tragic.

[greatscott]

Two things that I think may help instill a little bit more confidence:

(1) Switch to paying the dividend weekly. Even though this isn't normal, all the popular ASICMiner divs seem to be setting a precedent with this.

(2) Eric should probably get an independent audit done on the statistics by someone or a company who specializes in gaming. In particular, I think the standard deviation / variance on the game needs to be mapped out and have the min/max bet calculations reset correctly. Further, I'm guessing people have looked at this already, but it should be verified that that taking the top digits of a sha512 hash on txids is a good uniform distribution. Either way, making the stdev smaller should help reduce these profit swings and keep profits in the green with a higher probability.

You must be new here. Good suggestions get ignored and burried with post of irrelevance. Shits tragic.

Lurker since mid 2011, but still as naive as ever.

[MPOE-PR]

(1) Switch to paying the dividend weekly. Even though this isn't normal, all the popular ASICMiner divs seem to be setting a precedent with this.

Asicminer is not setting any sort of precedent. Dividends used to be weekly back in the old Global Scam Exchange days (with some daily). MPEx set a precedent by getting rid of the sort of bullshit. The only surviving corp off the Global Scam Exchange hasn't yet gotten the memo, they're stubborn. They'll learn. So will you.

(2) Eric should probably get an independent audit done on the statistics by someone or a company who specializes in gaming.

Google "MtGox heist auditor" or something.

In particular, I think the standard deviation / variance on the game needs to be mapped out and have the min/max bet calculations reset correctly.

You need to read up on Bitcoin. Don't start with the concept of provably fair, start with the very basics.

Further, I'm guessing people have looked at this already, but it should be verified that that taking the top digits of a sha512 hash on txids is a good uniform distribution. Either way, making the stdev smaller should help reduce these profit swings and keep profits in the green with a higher probability.

You need to read up on cryptography. Don't start with "why does a hashing function have to yield uniform distributions", start with the very basics.

You must be new here. Good suggestions get ignored and burried with post of irrelevance. Shits tragic.

Tragic indeed. Why are you doing it?

[evoorhees]

Earnings Report for May

Data can be found here along with comments/details on all expenses for the month: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=14

Bets: 506,686
Volume Bet:  175,136.61
Paid Out: 174,750.31
Network Fees Paid: 531.28

Revenue: -144.98
Op. Expenses: 290.0325


Expected Earnings (discounting variance and incl. Op Expenses):  2,892 BTC
Actual Earnings (incl. Op Expenses): -435.01035497

Notes:
- Many people asked for details on expenses. These are now provided fully in the spreadsheet w/ comments.
- As heads-up, June will incur a payment of roughly $10k for remaining new website work
- May expenses were high due to $20k convention sponsorship 
- Bet Volume was up over 2x from April, despite US blockage.
- No hacks, no thefts. Lifetime earnings are nearly identical to expected earnings.
- Some people noticed I donated 150 btc to the blockchain pruning/lite nodes development here: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=204283.msg2137338#msg2137338  I've received a couple angry PMs from people who thought SD was paying for this and it would come out of dividends. So I'll say it again - this was paid by me personally, not SD.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Why are you telling me this?!

Not talking to you I'm talking to evoorhees. Looking at the divs and marketshare is cool and all, but that can only tell you so much about future outlook.

Glad to see that the new website is being worked upon.

I don't see comments on the spreadsheet?