Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[Biodom]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?
I see absolutely no relevance between Bitmain's current total network share, and future diffchanges.
I have nothing against Bitmain, just sayin... enjoy them while you can, because when Neptune ships, your returns will be squat, whilst Neptunes will have the horsepower to return for much much longer profitably. Remember what happened to Avalon's and BFL's when Jupiter came to town?
This is a similar comparison. Yeah, there's gonna be one or two nice big diffchanges when Neptune delivers, but after that....  Who has the capacity effect the diff over even 5% in a single diff after Neptune comes to town?.....   NOBODY.
No single batch delivery from a single vendor will ever touch 5% of the network again after Neptune. Take that to the bank.

I tend to agree with general direction of your argument and was checking that awesome image quite frequently myself. The trend of diff rises has to change, but the the question is-when? If it bends down to lower than 30% a mo after October, it might or might not be too late to get ROI on Neptune, hence the dilemma. I got some ants because of a want to do some mining right now. Ant is, of course, nothing like Neptune, but it is pretty important for network diversity, in my opinion. You can be a geek with an ant or a few of them, but Neptune is another species altogether.

[faetos]

There are enough people using arbitrage trading bots for alts already, across many exchanges....
I wonder if there is any capacity in the system to actually make any money in that anymore...I doubt it

pump and dumps can be quite profitable. alts are more risky than btc, but there's a greater chance to make a lot of profit.

You keep wondering.

[Searing]

"Can" is key, but 200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.
1200 times 3 or 4 Th/s in 6 days......  (up to 4.8 petahashes) how is bitmain supposed to touch that?  Can bitmain ship 4-5 petahashes per 6 days.... I think not. They can "ramp up" all they want, it won't change things much, especially after Neptune.

Ok, if you're right about KnC's capacity to deliver, then you're just proving my initial point. Neptune won't break even. There's just too much hashpower coming online in the next few months.

again you could be correct but the other side of the coin is difficulty is a percentage of total network hash power can they really keep upping hash power vs the total network as it is to effect difficulty to a 15-20% uptick or is it just gonna be a flash in the pan and then ramp up again in fall with new generation of machines? ie lots of stuff is coming out NOW but there is some lag imho on how the stuff shoots out ie usually they all do it at the same time in bunches according to the technology they manage to upgrade

then also there is the equip falling off the other end that is no longer profitable (my jupiter knc oct comes to mind this summer) and the dip in USD for bitcoin may have slowed stuff down too...

again i know zip but just saying and i may likely pull the plug here soon w/o more info from KNC but its why i'm holding at this point (i'm brave as hell with refund...new companies no refund ...er not so much)


Searing

[faetos]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

I love that outfit - in stock, mining in 4 days after purchase from China to Texas - yeehaw! I hope that is the model that takes off. This pre-order stuff is too much.

[RoadStress]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.

hmmm, i think u have overlooked the comming new Boss in town:

spongebob-tech:

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/

I'm ignoring them for good reason: They have not been vetted.

dogie already has a nice review on them and more will come.

link please....

and BFL has had NICE REVIEWS and products sent to such reviewers up to  a year previous to shipping so...shudder......just a thought

Searing

https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=525469.0

Spongebob-tech (no pun indended) have already proven themselves through this review and also through their partners (see https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=521520.msg5844237#msg5844237)

[Biodom]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

I love that outfit - in stock, mining in 4 days after purchase from China to Texas - yeehaw! I hope that is the model that takes off. This pre-order stuff is too much.

Interestingly, Bitmain will ship two generations (S1 and S2) during Neptune preorder period. I hope that this preoder habit just go away and never comes back.
In lieu of this new thinking, I did not preorder S2, albeit it was only 3 weeks. Will wait until it is in stock to revisit.
Also, KnC could have produced gobs of Jupiters or boards, but they chose to put them in the datorhall and give ya'll a 7-10% haircut. Don't forget that, happy Jupiter miners.

[faetos]

"Can" is key, but 200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.
1200 times 3 or 4 Th/s in 6 days......  (up to 4.8 petahashes) how is bitmain supposed to touch that?  Can bitmain ship 4-5 petahashes per 6 days.... I think not. They can "ramp up" all they want, it won't change things much, especially after Neptune.

Ok, if you're right about KnC's capacity to deliver, then you're just proving my initial point. Neptune won't break even. There's just too much hashpower coming online in the next few months.

again you could be correct but the other side of the coin is difficulty is a percentage of total network hash power can they really keep upping hash power vs the total network as it is to effect difficulty to a 15-20% uptick or is it just gonna be a flash in the pan and then ramp up again in fall with new generation of machines? ie lots of stuff is coming out NOW but there is some lag imho on how the stuff shoots out ie usually they all do it at the same time in bunches according to the technology they manage to upgrade

then also there is the equip falling off the other end that is no longer profitable (my jupiter knc oct comes to mind this summer) and the dip in USD for bitcoin may have slowed stuff down too...

again i know zip but just saying and i may likely pull the plug here soon w/o more info from KNC but its why i'm holding at this point (i'm brave as hell with refund...new companies no refund ...er not so much)


Searing

You still have your orders with that English outfit (name escapes me), right? - for the scrypt gear? I think you're going to clean house with that order. I didn't think they were real but their regular updates look legit. To be honest KnC's titan is interesting, but pre-order ...sorry, new home comes first   I'm holding out for an in stock scrypt asic miner before I take the plunge.

Good luck to you and your orders. If things work out you'll be in a great spot this summer.

[faetos]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

I love that outfit - in stock, mining in 4 days after purchase from China to Texas - yeehaw! I hope that is the model that takes off. This pre-order stuff is too much.

Interestingly, Bitmain will ship two generations (S1 and S2) during Neptune preorder period. I hope that this preoder habit just go away and never come back.
I lieu of this new thinking, I did not preorder S2, albeit it was only 3 weeks. Will wait until it is in stock to revisit.

ya, me too. I was interested in getting one of those coin CC wallets, but the pre-order part made me cringe and walk away.

[Wesly]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

Actually they can and did...  They all went to their data center for self-mining...  I believe Neptune is coming in 2 months and I will be shocked if it doesn't do at least 4.5 TH.  The network effect will be drastic, and it will taper off...  The big unknown is after all 3 batches are shipped within 1-2 months, how long will KnC wait to start building more for self-mining and how many PH?

[Syke]

Actually they can and did...  They all went to their data center for self-mining...

I was going by this report:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.se/2014/03/march-16th-2014-weekly-hashrate.html

KnC 10% of network. Bitmain has already passed 20%.

[organofcorti]

Actually they can and did...  They all went to their data center for self-mining...

I was going by this report:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.se/2014/03/march-16th-2014-weekly-hashrate.html

KnC 10% of network. Bitmain has already passed 20%.

The percentages in the blog post are from blocks solved by pools or hashers. It doesn't consider the amount earned on pools or supplied by various manufacturers, so the comparison is invalid.

[Syke]

The percentages in the blog post are from blocks solved by pools or hashers. It doesn't consider the amount earned on pools or supplied by various manufacturers, so the comparison is invalid.

Well, since I don't think KnC is mining to their own address with non-KnC hardware, the only missing piece is how much hardware did KnC ship to customers. Anyone know?

[Phoenix1969]

The percentages in the blog post are from blocks solved by pools or hashers. It doesn't consider the amount earned on pools or supplied by various manufacturers, so the comparison is invalid.

Well, since I don't think KnC is mining to their own address with non-KnC hardware, the only missing piece is how much hardware did KnC ship to customers. Anyone know?

right, and then add an unscrupulous amount they have in Boden, and continue to add to as we speak.

[organofcorti]

The percentages in the blog post are from blocks solved by pools or hashers. It doesn't consider the amount earned on pools or supplied by various manufacturers, so the comparison is invalid.

Well, since I don't think KnC is mining to their own address with non-KnC hardware, the only missing piece is how much hardware did KnC ship to customers. Anyone know?

right, and then add an unscrupulous amount they have in Boden, and continue to add to as we speak.

Well no. That would be the blocks they solve plus their remaining hashrate on Eligius.

[Phoenix1969]

I just don't see how a single batch of S2's (1 Th/s machines) in April is going to make any huge impact on the Difficulty no matter how much they "Ramp up" production.

[Syke]

I just don't see how a single batch of S2's (1 Th/s machines) in April is going to make any huge impact on the Difficulty no matter how much they "Ramp up" production.

Nobody said a single batch would do it. Bitmaintech is very good at continous production. They just keep pumping out Ants every day like there's no tomorrow.

[Phoenix1969]

I just don't see how a single batch of S2's (1 Th/s machines) in April is going to make any huge impact on the Difficulty no matter how much they "Ramp up" production.

Nobody said a single batch would do it. Bitmaintech is very good at continous production. They just keep pumping out Ants every day like there's no tomorrow.

That's nice, but that does not change the batch size or time of next batches delivery... It's a finite amount, no matter what the delivery rate is...  So again, I ask how does that mean Bitmain is going to make a huge impact on the difficulty level before Neptune ships? Total Th/s of batch is the point. Adding up every U2.. and S2 available... They haven't sold enough to make such an impact, there weren't enough available to order to so such. the cloud is almost 35 Petahash ATM. So, in order for a delivery to exact a 10% change, they would need a delivery of 3.5 Petahashes in a single diff;  and that's today. It can be done, but unless they are cranking out 3500 1 Th/s machines every 12 days already, then the chances of effecting the diff in a big way are pretty doggone slim by the figures I see, because it would take a delivery of every unit ordered in a single diff to do that, and next diff it will be over 10% harder to do the same thing, etc.... and once they deliver, "blow their wad"... complete a batch, it's wait till next batch, just like everyone else, because there"s no magic basket that's going to keep the production line going before the chips and components are there. They can talk about "ramping up" production until the cows come home, as it still has zero effect on batch size, or when the next batch will be available, unless they are behind, of course. So you see, there can not be "Continuous production", as theres no such thing unless you already have an endless supply of parts, in an non-batch scenario, which they are not. Deliveries will halt between batches; that's just the way it is.
So, on Bitmain effecting huge diffs and destroying profitability for Neptune... show me some real numbers.  I just don't see it....    guess we will find out soon  


on the "flip side".... Neptine batch 0 (CA Batch)... 1200 units times what? 4 Th/s or more?  5 Petahash per batch!
then we will see who is destroying who's profitability.

[Syke]

They can talk about "ramping up" production until the cows come home, as it still has zero effect on batch size, or when the next batch will be available, unless they are behind, of course.
I just don't see it.... guess we will find out soon  

Yeah, Bitcoinorama tried to make the same argument.

Dude the hashrate is about to level out for a bit not, continue growing like this for a while.

The difficulty is nearly 20x what it was back then when he made that prediction.

It's not just Bitmaintech. It's all the A1 clones. And Bitfury. And Spondoolies. Etc. Difficulty is still going up exponentially.

[Phoenix1969]

They can talk about "ramping up" production until the cows come home, as it still has zero effect on batch size, or when the next batch will be available, unless they are behind, of course.
I just don't see it.... guess we will find out soon  

Yeah, Bitcoinorama tried to make the same argument.

Dude the hashrate is about to level out for a bit not, continue growing like this for a while.

The difficulty is nearly 20x what it was back then when he made that prediction.

It's not just Bitmaintech. It's all the A1 clones. And Bitfury. And Spondoolies. Etc. Difficulty is still going up exponentially.

I agree, the diff will always rise, and sure... "exponentially", literally.... but at what rate? I'm betting if you add up everyone's potential "on time" cookies, it doesn't add up to any special leap in hashpower all at once, because everyone has a schedule, and the diff is indeed tapering, I posted that chart a couple times already. You will never see another surprise 40% diffchange, those days are over.

As a matter of fact, look at the date on your Orama quote, and look at this chart...  
Now tell me he was wrong!
Even a full Neptine batch of 5 petahash in a single diff RIGHT NOW would only equate to about a 12% diff increase.
I must agree if that odd surprise Isreali company actually starts delivering as advertised, combined with all other "scheduled ASIC deliveries", there would be a significant  increase to the total network hashrate, but its not going to happen in huge leaps, because again, everyone has a schedule, and FEW are on-time. The next couple months will be very interesting at the very least.

[Syke]

You will never see another surprise 40% diffchange, those days are over.

It doesn't need to rise at 40%. Even at 20%, Neptune will never break even.