pump before halving.. sheeps.. after 11,07 BIG dump
or dont give miners hw miner for "after halving time" and after pump up price..+
becouse all is in chinese hand, hw company, pools , and maybe all bitcoins.
who now.. everything is possible
wooot
[soapbox]
What I\m writing below is hardly a novel thought. A similar idea was pointed out in here a long time ago already by someone much smarter than me.
The 'halving' dynamics and their market effect, unclear as they may be in detail, should not be simplified to the point where their analysis matches that of the many other external events, i.e. that of other, supposedly "important news", like, say, the opening of a new exchange.
Every time you, as a trader/predictor, evaluate "news" you need to distinguish the
anticipation of the event, and the actual, 'hard' effect of the event.
In the case of many of important news events, there is nothing but anticipation. That's what you can rightfully call "pump & dump" then, or at least, accuse it of being an "unjustified hype" upon hearing the event being discussed.
But in case of the halving, it is only the first part that bears similarity to other events. The anticipation phase for the halving, in which we are now, is purely based on human emotions and expectations, spinning the news, etc. In other words, it's a 'soft' effect, just like anticipating other good or bad events, and you are absolutely permitted to call it 'hype' or suspect it shares some similarity with a 'pump & dump'.
But the second part of the event, the 'hard' effect, is a bit different in this case. For one, it is (effectively) guaranteed to take place, as opposed to other events where some amount of uncertainty surrounds the event.
More importantly though is the relative lack of ambiguity of
interpreting the effect. I have seen arguments why a drop in inflation could actually lead to a sharp drop in price, but these arguments are based on very flimsy premises that hold little weight against the much stronger basic supply/demand dynamics and its effect as we know from every market on earth.
*What I'm getting at is this:
If your analysis of the halving event is only based on evaluating the 'soft', anticipatory effects, but fails to account for the 'hard', the actual effect of a sudden change in the global supply situation -- namely: a drop of yearly inflation of almost 9% to about 4% -- then you are oversimplifying your analysis to a point where it becomes inappropriate as a tool of prediction.
[/soapbox]
* Note that this is
not the same as saying "price surely will go up". There are a few, not exactly impossible scenarios, in which the (positive) effect of the hype will have outweighed the (neutral) effect of the actual change in supply, and price stagnates, or potentially even falls. I don't assign too high a likelihood to thatoutcome, but it seems at least plausible to me. That a sharp cut in inflation, seen as a stand-alone factor, would lead to a
devaluation is extremely implausible on the other hand.
Poll
