Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Hi,

I am an absolute newby to this forum, this is my first post. On the other hand, I have been trading financial assets for quite some time.  

I expected today's BTC dip, whatever the supposed reason for it would come out to be (i.e. fake news from China) on the basis  of :

1. a simple analysis of trading volumes analyzed on various time frames

2. the application of Fibonacci retracement levels to the previous leg up

3. the application of Eliot's wave count to the previous leg up (impulse wave) and to the current leg down (correction wave)


Technical analysis is not science  and its various tools are not always churning out foolproof answers.  Some tools work better ( = more often and on more type of financial assets) than others, but even those can fail ( = give false signals).   In my experience,  Eliot and Fibonacci have the best predictive power because they are not based on averages of past datas but on eternal or, at least, recurrent human behavioural patterns.

This said,  I put out my 5 cents of wisdom to say that the market will find its way to correct lower  before it resumes its way up.  I have set a number of buying orders at decreasing price levels between 4000 and 3000 USD  so, to put my mouth where my money is, this is what I can recommend to others as well.

Good trades everybody !

Sure your post sounds reasonable newbie; however, you need to account for s-curve adoption, metcalfe networking principles and that bitcoin is an immature technology that is also going through fundamental extreme attacks and even weirdness in the cryptospace on a broader level with a variety of random and extreme performances of ICOs and alt coins, and that is where the fucktard over reliance on technical analysis frequently screws up with their assertions about supposed inevitable needs for correction in a kind of false equivalency about bitcoin being a supposed mature market.

Sure you could be correct this time (a stopped clock is correct twice a day), but please present your technical analysis with a bit more grains of salt and accounting for both the immature price finding aspect of bitcoin and the s-curve analysis which are important factors to not leave out when you are arriving at your supposed "reasonable" technical analysis conclusions and advices.

[gentlemand]

AGAIN only FOOOLS would sell now

what kind of idiot is sitting now behind his pc pushing the buttons to sell BTC 

Someone who can buy it for less in a short while?

[Ludwig Von]

AGAIN only FOOOLS would sell now

what kind of idiot is sitting now behind his pc pushing the buttons to sell BTC 

The Chinese pop and mom investors... . It is weekend after all. Bitcoin will be an export product only, in exchange for dollars coming into China, yuan going out of China is what cannot happen. And for the internal Chinese market there will be BCC.

[p0peji]

AGAIN only FOOOLS would sell now

what kind of idiot is sitting now behind his pc pushing the buttons to sell BTC 

Just as someone would have to be a retard to buy right now, the risk by far outweighs the profit potential

[JayJuanGee]

It is just time for a deeper correction, nothing more.

I beg to differ. It had already corrected. I think today's dip can be directly attributed to news of China announcing a clampdown on exchanges.

This is a similar situation to last January when the natural correction after breaking $1k was immediately followed by The PBoC announcing an investigation of the exchanges, causing a panic. After a short recovery, the PBoc started visiting the exchanges and then froze btc withdrawals causing another panic.

This time the natural correction after passing $5k was immediately followed by the PBoC outlawing ICOs, causing a panic. After a short recovery, the news of yet another Chinese action against the exchanges caused another panic.

We all know what happened to the price after January's panic subsided. Didn't we learn that China's importance in Bitcoin was over-rated?

This too will pass.

so you think no bigger dive for this time ?? just bought few coins like 1 hour before the dip 

Sell everything micgoosens!!!!!!!!       

[Meuh6879]

Interesting, the volume ... decrease.
More waves for october/november ... or january ?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

AGAIN only FOOOLS would sell now

what kind of idiot is sitting now behind his pc pushing the buttons to sell BTC 

Hired goons?

[cashodler]

Coindesk points out Caixin's source predicted the ICO ban two days in advance: https://www.coindesk.com/report-casts-doubt-future-chinas-bitcoin-exchanges/

Now Bitcoin...

[becoin]

Just as someone would have to be a retard to buy right now, the risk by far outweighs the profit potential

So, people buying bitcoins on every dip during last 8 years are retards... Are you retarded?

[Lauda]

<gribble> Bitstamp | Total bids: 54280002 USD. Total asks: 3327 BTC. Ratio: 16312.10759 USD/BTC. | Data vintage: 99.0342 seconds

Don't be bamboozled by fake news and play into their hands. It is very likely that we will recover very quickly as it is oversold.

Just as someone would have to be a retard to buy right now, the risk by far outweighs the profit potential

So, people buying bitcoins on every dip during last 8 years are retards... Are you retarded?

You need not ask questions to which the obvious answer is yes.

[_javi_]

Hi,

I am an absolute newby to this forum, this is my first post. On the other hand, I have been trading financial assets for quite some time.  

I expected today's BTC dip, whatever the supposed reason for it would come out to be (i.e. fake news from China) on the basis  of :

1. a simple analysis of trading volumes analyzed on various time frames

2. the application of Fibonacci retracement levels to the previous leg up

3. the application of Eliot's wave count to the previous leg up (impulse wave) and to the current leg down (correction wave)


Technical analysis is not science  and its various tools are not always churning out foolproof answers.  Some tools work better ( = more often and on more type of financial assets) than others, but even those can fail ( = give false signals).   In my experience,  Eliot and Fibonacci have the best predictive power because they are not based on averages of past datas but on eternal or, at least, recurrent human behavioural patterns.

This said,  I put out my 5 cents of wisdom to say that the market will find its way to correct lower  before it resumes its way up.  I have set a number of buying orders at decreasing price levels between 4000 and 3000 USD  so, to put my mouth where my money is, this is what I can recommend to others as well.

Good trades everybody !

Sure your post sounds reasonable newbie; however, you need to account for s-curve adoption, metcalfe networking principles and that bitcoin is an immature technology that is also going through fundamental extreme attacks and even weirdness in the cryptospace on a broader level with a variety of random and extreme performances of ICOs and alt coins, and that is where the fucktard over reliance on technical analysis frequently screws up with their assertions about supposed inevitable needs for correction in a kind of false equivalency about bitcoin being a supposed mature market.

Sure you could be correct this time (a stopped clock is correct twice a day), but please present your technical analysis with a bit more grains of salt and accounting for both the immature price finding aspect of bitcoin and the s-curve analysis which are important factors to not leave out when you are arriving at your supposed "reasonable" technical analysis conclusions and advices.

JayJuanGee, excellent write up! 100% agreed..I couldnt find better words to express my thoughts

[El duderino_]

It is just time for a deeper correction, nothing more.

I beg to differ. It had already corrected. I think today's dip can be directly attributed to news of China announcing a clampdown on exchanges.

This is a similar situation to last January when the natural correction after breaking $1k was immediately followed by The PBoC announcing an investigation of the exchanges, causing a panic. After a short recovery, the PBoc started visiting the exchanges and then froze btc withdrawals causing another panic.

This time the natural correction after passing $5k was immediately followed by the PBoC outlawing ICOs, causing a panic. After a short recovery, the news of yet another Chinese action against the exchanges caused another panic.

We all know what happened to the price after January's panic subsided. Didn't we learn that China's importance in Bitcoin was over-rated?

This too will pass.

so you think no bigger dive for this time ?? just bought few coins like 1 hour before the dip 

Sell everything micgoosens!!!!!!!!       

no my friend THAN the whole market will colapse 

[El duderino_]

Just as someone would have to be a retard to buy right now, the risk by far outweighs the profit potential

So, people buying bitcoins on every dip during last 8 years are retards... Are you retarded?

he must be... oooh it was a rhetorical question

[becoin]

Coindesk points out Caixin's source predicted the ICO ban two days in advance: https://www.coindesk.com/report-casts-doubt-future-chinas-bitcoin-exchanges/

Now Bitcoin...

China bans Bitcoin. Again. Ban No. 17. Wow! Is that the news?

[JayJuanGee]

AGAIN only FOOOLS would sell now

what kind of idiot is sitting now behind his pc pushing the buttons to sell BTC 

Just as someone would have to be a retard to buy right now, the risk by far outweighs the profit potential

What do you know?

These things reverse all the time, and no one can really time the bottom very well.... so there can be reasons to buy right now, especially if you already sold higher.   Also, if you are not in bitcoin at all and  you are just learning about it, you may want to buy some at this price.

There is no one size fits all and the extent to which someone buys at this particular price point may well depend on a variety of factors and even account for possibly that the odds of the price going down could be better than the price going up - but that does not mean that someone blanketly sits and waits, because sometimes the odds end up going in the less likely direction... ever heard of that in bitcoinlandia?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

[Meuh6879]

Finish Him !

[_javi_]

http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-09-09/101142821.html?sourceEntityId=101142797

"the source added that the crackdown targets unauthorized trading at virtual currency exchanges, rather than Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology."

it is not about BTC, not even a ban.
the PBoC just want to keep stuff under control.. no surprise there.

ok, now you can continue dumping, dumbasses.. see ya next year at 10k.

[JayJuanGee]

Interesting, the volume ... decrease.
More waves for october/november ... or january ?

I find the weekly volume to be a better indicator than the daily volume - and even a better indicator than the 3 day volume bars.

Whales move their volume in a couple day (or even several day) increments, so frequently, it is difficult to see through some of the noise when you attempt to rely upon either the three day candles or the 1 day candles to make trade volume trend determinations.  Also sometimes it takes several weeks to come to any kind of meaningful conclusion about whether BTC trade volumes are up, down or flat.

Personally, I have tentatively determined that at this time, we are in about a 20 week streak of higher than average BTC trade volumes, and the previous time that we had this kind of streak of higher than average BTC trade volumes was in late 2015 - which was in the lower 20 weeks.  That streak was about between early August and late December 2015 before we experienced a kind of consolidation period.  Surely the battle was not resolved in 2015, and later we realized that the bulls had won that battle; however, largely we were not able to clearly come to such conclusion until after the about 6 month consolidation period in which in May 2016 BTC prices clearly and unambiguously broke above $500 - never to return to those levels (so sometimes it can take a considerable amount of time to actually see what is happening and to determine either what the shorter term outcome has been and possibly figure out if we are in a bear market, bull market or still transitioning in some kind of way).

Surely, BTC trade volumes can dry up at any time; however, I am thinking that currently, we have so much fucking craziness going on in the crypto-space (certainly including bitcoin) that we are likely to continue to have these kinds of price battles and above average trade volumes continuing from here and until at least the beginning of 2018.  By the way, a price battle means that the sides cannot agree about the current price and they are willing to bet money in each direction in order to attempt to get their way and to get the price to move in the direction that they believe it should go.  Of course, bears are betting downwards and bulls are betting upwards.  So, yeah, I don't know what it is going to mean in terms of the BTC price or the resolution of the BTC price in this clearly ongoing battle that is about week 20 of its current iteration; however, as I type, I think that there are pretty decent odds that bulls are going to win this particular BTC price battle - and especially by sometime before early 2018 (could happen sooner or could happen later) and due to the likely victory of the bulls (maybe greater than 58% chances?) we are going to get overall upwards BTC price movement before we get downwards - and that BTC trade volume will only go back to more "normal" levels after these up and down price movements and battles have resolved - in either direction... and like I already asserted, it could take several months for the battle and the movement to play out.

[CoinCube]

For those who decide to cash out during this weekends dip don't hold onto that fiat too long.

Central Banks Have Purchased $2 Trillion In Assets In 2017
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-08/central-banks-have-purchased-2-trillion-assets-2017