I was describing $200 to $300 as the range in which we bounced, once we got to the bottom in 2015 - but we did not know we were at the bottom nor when we were going to arrive there.
Part of the point remains that we don't know where the bottom is exactly, and surely we do not know for sure whether bouncing in a 33% price range is going to play out again this time for a similar period of time in our current scenario. My main assertion that bouncing around in about a 33% range is not really unusual, and your assertion that we may not have yet reached the bottom is a different and separate point - and I don't see how it is substantiated by the evidence, except for you and some other supposed bulls are giving a considerable amount of weight to a "further down" scenario based on looking at part of a past chart and projecting certain parts of history to repeat itself?
The range to which we drop at any point can also vary quite considerably because the way that the price jumped up from the $200s to $19,666 was drawn out quite longer (over two years) than the bounce up from below $100 to $1,163 (which had taken place over only a couple of months in late 2013). Also, development in the crypto and bitcoin space, including the money dynamics of the various alts and ICOs can affect the space, including various instruments of financialization, the number of avenues for liquidation and the levels of attacks on bitcoin through forks, pumping of other projects and just financial institutional/governmental aspirations that bitcoin does not succeed.
One could recognize that we have already been bouncing largely between $6k and $9k since early February, and so that would be about 6 months - and under the current market conditions there remains to compelling reason that additional BTC price correction is required before moving up... and maybe a further down would be too bearish... there could be some sense that six months here is long enough, but if we go down further, then that would be even longer drawn out than the 2014-2015 downturn, which is not really easily supported by the whole crypto market dynamics - in other words, are ICOs and Alts getting shaken out this time around, or are they coming along for at least one more pump... .. I still believe the coming along for at least one more pump is the more likely scenario, which would thereby make a long and drawn out further down (at this time) to be the lesser likely scenario (maybe only slightly lesser likely, but still weighing in on the lesser likely direction).
Edit: The $200-$300 bottom of 2014/15 lasted about 9 months.. Sure there were a few times in 2014 that BTC prices bounced in the $400s and also in the $600s.. but those periods were only a couple of months at most, and a couple of times, there were considerable expectation that BTC prices would be returning back up, but they did not. Still seems kind of a coin toss whether this $6k to $9k area is the bottom or some area that is further down the charts.
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