It is fine to own %5-10 gold but even if gold succeeds, I mean how much can it go? $5k? And if gold ever hits $5k,
I would say 5% on the high side.. You are giving way too much benefit of the doubt to gold.. perhaps 1% would be more prudent, especially like I already mentioned if you own BTC.
'The people' do not yet control monetary matters. I mean, they do, but they don't realize the power they (we) have. As such, central banks will determine the fate of gold for the foreseeable future.
What central banks can't control is the whirlwind that will be the inevitable result from the stupid policies adopted back in the 1910-1913 timeframe. All they will be able to do is react to the debt-fueled collapse of the world economic system.
But the world has endured monetary shocks in the past. And while painful, they don't necessarily portend armageddon. The... ::*ahem*::
honorable, learned, and wise leaders find a way to restart the party - usually at the expense of setting in motion yet another larger shock some years or decades into the future. Even in the central banking era, we've gotten through Bretton Woods, the Nixon gold shock, and other such events - each of which was a complete rearchitecting of the world's monetary system.
tl;dr: Worldwide monetary shock is coming; it won't be TEOTWAWKI; and central banks will guide us through to the other side.
Which is all just prefatory to saying that both mindrust's and JJG's number estimates are woefully low.
Central banks, by and large, own gold. Large stocks of gold. And those whose economies have advanced past their gold holdings are buying gold hand over fist. (There is a notable exception of Great Britain).
When the shit hits the fan, about the only tool the central banks have is a repricing of gold. Not by 4x, but by some double-digit multiple. I followed the figures at one time -- Rickards has a handle on the precise number -- but it's a damned sight higher than 4x.
If the monetary collapse happens within the next decade (a fair possibility), there is no way in hell the response will be Bitcoin. Ain't gonna happen. Those currently in power will not cede it to a ragtag bunch of innernet nerds. Sure - if
the people writ large rise up and force the issue, it could happen. But they wont.
So no. Chance of gold being massively increased in value is a damn sight higher than 5%, and the increment in such an event will be a damn sight higher than 4x.
Now I'm not saying Bitcoin will be a lagging investment in comparison. Nay, even with the scenario outlined above, I expect Bitcoin to handily outperform PMs. But in discussing alt assets, let's at least be real.
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