Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I think that three or more meets the definition of multi-,but hey what do I know.  Double digits is some way higher levels, that's for sure.  The 21 club is becoming more and more prestigious, too.

I don’t like to know how many bitcoin’s other people have, it doesn’t interest me but I think lots in this thread are 21 club members.

Some members don't mind sharing their specifics, and it seems a pretty safe assumption that on average active participants here are at least in the 2 digits and many are 21 club eligible....

Nonetheless, I also think that quite a few members do get shaken out of their coins or run into cashflow issues, trading (gambling) or even security (third party exchange) issues that cause them to deplete their BTC stash. 

I am not innocent of such depletions, including one of my most recent foibles of keeping too many coins on WEX.  It really pisses me off because I thought that WEX was attempting to fight the good fight, but on reflection, I understand that the pressures on them was likely too great, and it likely becomes really difficult to do the right thing when one of the main principles (as far as I understand the situation) got arrested and really there seems to be little sympathy on his freedom... likely costly with attorneys and even the US Government probably wants to take whatever measures to confiscate any coins that he might have too.  So in those circumstances, it seems impossible to keep the exchange open. 

Unrealistic as it may seem, I still have a slim hope to get some coins back from WEX, but likely the odds of getting any coins back are in the .5% arena, at best... so my BTC holdings shows that WEX account as only .005 of the value that was originally in there.  Fuck.  what a reminder of a mistake and lost value along the way. 

By the way, I mention a lot of this to suggest that even if any of us may project a path of building value and accumulating BTC, we also have to account for various factors that could cause use to lose some coins along the way through both known unknowns and unknown unknowns. So, in that regard, if any of us prefer to stay in the 21 club, for example, if we are in such club, then we may have to have a decent cushion above that amount, perhaps even 50% above 21 BTC (which would make it 31.5 BTC), just to attempt to stay in such club (same is true at any other projected BTC accumulation/maintenance levels).

[kenzawak]

Bitcoin mining sees growth after 19-month low

https://cryptoinsider.com/bitcoin-mining-sees-growth-after-19-month-low/

"After over a year and a half of decreasing Bitcoin mining revenue, a new report shows a small yet significant recovery in the gross margins.
...
Last month, Bitcoin mining revenues fell to their lowest intake since August 2017. The total mining income in February 2019 totalled $195 million – a mere fraction compared to the $951 million peak of December 2017, and a 10% decline from the previous month.
...
“In December 2017 fees alone earned miners over $295Mn. But along with the price drop and the adoption of SegWit rising from an average of 12% in January 2018 to over 43% in February this year, revenues from fees have become an afterthought.”
...
The gross margins of the miners went down from 94% at the beginning of 2018, to 32% at the beginning of 2019. But in February, the gross margins rose up slightly to 39% as shown in the graph below.



...
While there is a positive turn in the mining industry, we cannot make wild assumptions about the implications it may have on the market in the near future. The information here is not sufficient to conclude that an indication for a nearing bull market or an improvement of price stability.
...
Another important point to note is that in May 2020, Bitcoin is going to be halving – namely, the bitcoin mining rewards will be algorithmically reduced by 50%. This means that the rewards per newly discovered block will drop from 12.5 to 6.25. Mining will be significantly less profitable if the Bitcoin price will not grow by then."

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Anybody have the feeling bitcoin is like a coiled spring at the moment? I feel like we’re just waiting for a something to ignite a significant upwards movement to comfortably into the $4,000’s.

It’s eerily quiet at the moment - A little too quiet.

[StartupAnalyst]

Gentlemen you saw  Roger Ver's t lecture presented at the Satoshi's Vision Conference?
If not, you can read it here.

[JayJuanGee]

I think that three or more meets the definition of multi-,but hey what do I know.  Double digits is some way higher levels, that's for sure.  The 21 club is becoming more and more prestigious, too.

I don’t like to know how many bitcoin’s other people have, it doesn’t interest me but I think lots in this thread are 21 club members.

The one where you need 1 000 000 btc? 

21 or more bitcoin’s

I'd much prefer to be in the 1mil btc club, only a handful of others coin join.

then you would have a roger ver complex.

There is no need to attempt to have that level of control or that level of filthy richness, unless you have some kind of insecurities.

Of course, running a business might be another thing. Recall that at one point, the Winkelvi Bros had proclaimed to have a goal to own 1% of the total BTC, and I think that they had been assessed to owning more than 100k BTC.  Of course, they had put some of those coins as collateral in their ETF applications, so in terms of having business aspirations, there may be some utility in squirreling a lot of BTCs.. but for regular people, it is difficult to imagine scenarios in which you would need to accumulate more than 10,000BTC.. and still be projected as filthy rich.... even though currently, with such holdings, you may be only bordering on filthy rich....

Even 100BTC is likely to cause a decently good cushion in the future, even though right now, such holdings might not be enough to give up the day job.. even though 1000BTC would likely be enough for most regular people to currently give up their day job and to weather any downturn, including a possibility that BTC could drop below $2k in the coming year (probably less than a 40% chance, currently).

[StartupAnalyst]

Look at the picture below. It's his slide that he found himself working for the government (and maybe the devil himself).

[JayJuanGee]

Something seems wrong about this message, especially the beginning line.. " I used to use bitcoin"... lightning network uses bitcoin... so it seems a bit of mixed message to imply that bitcoin and lightning are different things - instead that lightning supplements bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

As we should all be well aware, the mempool activity can not be firmly correlated to any pricing action.

Having said that, things are getting spicy today.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,24h



HODL.

I think it's just Jbreher spamming the network

I think all y'all oughter at least ponder the possibility that the entity that was spamming* back in 17 was core/Blockstream. It's arguable that the blocking of the stream was the coalescing event that finally bribed the community into accepting The SegWit Omnibus Changeset. And that without such blocking of the stream, the community never would have accepted the segwit poison pill.

edit: forgot the asterisk: * In my mind, anything that pays the fee is by definition not spam, so...
If you disagree, then please provide a description of an objective test that can be applied to any tx in order to classify it as spam/notspam.

We do not need to ponder your stupid ass possibility because it is just a bullshit speculative talking point that is based in fantasy.

Segwit was already passed and implemented in August 2017 with overwhelming consensus, so by the time, the spamming started intensively between early December 2017 until about the end of January 2018, there was no real turning back from that segwit implementation.

The stupid-ass spam were last gasp attempts by some of your BIG BLOCKER nutjobs to both confuse the narrative, and to attempt to perpetuate high fees/slow transaction time talking points, which they still employ to this day, even though those talking points have little basis in reality beyond the time-frame that they were employing their late 2017/early 2018 spam attack.  

They stopped spamming because it was both costing them way too much and it was turning out to be counter-productive including the fact that lightning network ended up going live way sooner than what would have likely otherwise happened, absent the then spam attack.

By the way, fuck your attempt at NOT defining that scenario as spamming the network - even if there were a lot of transactions with fees, those transactions were malicious attempts to block transactions, increase fees facilitating BIG BLOCKER nutjob talking points.  Therefore, spam (even though quite costly) done for political attack and sabotaging purposes rather than legitimately attempting to use bitcoin's blockchain.   So fuck your attempts to categorize attacks on the bitcoin blockchain as legitimate uses just because they are paying fees.

[Last of the V8s]

Is that available on kindle? ^

[Danslip]

Anybody have the feeling bitcoin is like a coiled spring at the moment? I feel like we’re just waiting for a something to ignite a significant upwards movement to comfortably into the $4,000’s.

It’s eerily quiet at the moment - A little too quiet.

It is early to talk about spring weather considering the market conditions. Better to wait for strict movement in the market.

[jbreher]

Gentlemen you saw  Roger Ver's t lecture presented at the Satoshi's Vision Conference?
If not, you can read it here.

It is one thing to dislike a character for things that character has said.

It is entirely something different to falsely attribute to some character things that that character has not said, and then use that as a form of character assassination.

If you think this is somehow honorable or funny, then shame on you.

[Searing]

Anybody have the feeling bitcoin is like a coiled spring at the moment? I feel like we’re just waiting for a something to ignite a significant upwards movement to comfortably into the $4,000’s.

It’s eerily quiet at the moment - A little too quiet.

It is early to talk about spring weather considering the market conditions. Better to wait for strict movement in the market.

Beware May 2019...I think that is the month mt. gox is expected to dump BTC. Likely the 'asshole' managing stuff will do so on exchanges again IMHO.

just saying, we need to keep the volume up to eat that 'feast' when it hits the world.

[jbreher]

Look at the picture below. It's his slide that he found himself working for the government (and maybe the devil himself).

No, it is not. That has been photoshopped. In order to spread confusion and hate. And to gaslight the community. Just as the text  -- note: NOT the images thereupon, including the TLA logo -- insinuates.

Again - shame on you.

[Ibian]

Look at the picture below. It's his slide that he found himself working for the government (and maybe the devil himself).

No, it is not. That has been photoshopped. In order to spread confusion and hate. And to gaslight the community. Just as the text  -- note: NOT the images thereupon, including the TLA logo -- insinuates.

Again - shame on you.

And yet still accurate.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/03/06/samsung-galaxy-s10-bitcoin-ethereum/
Samsung Galaxy S10 Arrives Sans Bitcoin, Only Ethereum is Supported

[Hueristic]

I get horrified and scared any time I see you guys talking about $100K or even $30K as if it was a SURE thing. What kind of capitulation is this?

After seeing the light I stopped capitulating. I will never capitulate again, unless of course, I'm wrong.

Anyone that has actually capitulated wouldn't even be here anymore.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I get horrified and scared any time I see you guys talking about $100K or even $30K as if it was a SURE thing. What kind of capitulation is this?

After seeing the light I stopped capitulating. I will never capitulate again, unless of course, I'm wrong.

Anyone that has actually capitulated wouldn't even be here anymore.

Lots of weak men have been & gone - Only the strongest remain.

I’ll be directing the film, who wants to star in it?

[JayJuanGee]

Anybody have the feeling bitcoin is like a coiled spring at the moment? I feel like we’re just waiting for a something to ignite a significant upwards movement to comfortably into the $4,000’s.

It’s eerily quiet at the moment - A little too quiet.

It is early to talk about spring weather considering the market conditions. Better to wait for strict movement in the market.

Beware May 2019...I think that is the month mt. gox is expected to dump BTC. Likely the 'asshole' managing stuff will do so on exchanges again IMHO.

just saying, we need to keep the volume up to eat that 'feast' when it hits the world.

From where do you get your information?

I thought that currently the MTGOX situation is kind of stagnant, waiting for possible resolution of the Peter Vessenes claims.  If the Peter Vessenes were to be resolved, then the next step would be distribution... which maybe it is too optimistic to believe that the Peter Vessenes claims can be resolved in any kind of reasonably prompt manner?

[Biodom]

There isn't enough bitcoin for all of today's millionaires to own an entire bitcoin each.

We won't call them millionaires anymore though, they will be known as "wholecoiners".

This may be the last chance for the average person to acquire a full bitcoin and that title.

https://twitter.com/alecziupsnys/status/1102908165719506947?s=21

I boldly claim to be the first one who came up with this observation. Must have been in 2015 or 2016 and i think it was in this forum.  


It is funny since I remember that back then this observation did not receive much attention, but in the last two years it appears in twitter, reddit and even crypto media outlets quite regularly.

July 3, 2014.
https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=676030.msg7664884#msg7664884

There were 29 million millionaires in the world in 2012 (probably more now). Each of them cannot get even a single bitcoin.
It is typical for millionaire home offices to allocate at least 5% to alternative investments.
If, instead of 5%, bitcoin will become just 1% of millionaires investment, the price at the equilibrium would have to be $40000 to achieve this allocation (1%).
This does not even take into consideration the other 99.4% of the humanity.

[HairyMaclairy]

Is Binance coin superior to Bitcoin Cash?