Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

House in Australia-being auctioned in crypto:
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-casuarina-129081390

Not sure if any dolphins would qualify, but whales would do, probably  

On a separate issue:

Question to TA experts: how likely would be a situation when we try to get to ATH, then fail (around, say 15-18K) and revert to at least a short term, but significant  bear?
Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)?
I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10%

In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500.
The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K.
The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken.

I would have to say 86.89% unlikely, 10.11% possible; but not likely and 3% likely. I would further add that I think after this cycle ends there is a good chance the next cycle will be much shorter as in the 2013-2014 run up/dip/run up.
W

#stronghands'19

[VB1001]

House Lawmakers Pass Bill Targeting Bitcoin and Crypto Asset Use by Terrorists

New legislation affecting Bitcoin and crypto just passed the US House of Representatives. The FinCen Improvement Act, introduced on February 27 by representative Jennifer Wexton (D-VA), passed the House on Monday and was received in the Senate on Tuesday.

https://dailyhodl.com/2019/03/13/house-lawmakers-pass-bill-targeting-bitcoin-and-crypto-asset-use-by-terrorists/

They do not know what to do to have more control in BTC.

This rabble shop and sell with undeclared fiat money, not with Bitcoin.

[Toxic2040]

Good afternoon all.

Increasing support has developed around the 0.382 fib seeming to indicate we might try another run at the $4k resistance level. #dyor
1h


Slow sideways ladder until the end of the month.
4


For all of you waiting for a lower low...scheduling a -20%+ drop between now and the end of the year is becoming increasingly difficult in my mind. I am not saying it cant happen, just that it is becoming less probable each day.
D

#strongerhands'19

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/bcause-the-worlds-first-fullstack-cryptocurrency-ecosystem-to-launch-on-nasdaq-market-technology-20190313-00218
-more people from away
-stock up now!

[JohnUser]

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/bcause-the-worlds-first-fullstack-cryptocurrency-ecosystem-to-launch-on-nasdaq-market-technology-20190313-00218
-more people from away
-stock up now!

Our way isn't to move them off ?

[AlcoHoDL]

I didn't even know Calvin Ayre before viewing his photo with the underage girls... What a sick f*ck!

I quickly browsed through his Twitter account. There are literally dozens of similar photos of him with little girls, mostly of Asian and African origin. In some of these photos you can also see Craig Wright, Roger Ver and other members of the BCash / BCH and BSV teams. Wright & Ver are also featured in several other posts.

Calvin Ayre is clearly associated with, and heavily promotes BSV/BCH.

It just goes to show what sick minds are behind those shitcoins...

[JayJuanGee]

House in Australia-being auctioned in crypto:
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-casuarina-129081390

Not sure if any dolphins would qualify, but whales would do, probably  

On a separate issue:

Question to TA experts: how likely would be a situation when we try to get to ATH, then fail (around, say, 15-18K) and revert to at least a short term, but significant bear?
Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)?
I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10%

In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500.
The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K.
The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken.

Certainly, I am NOT opposed to attempting to figure out longer term waves of BTC price and assigning probabilities to various scenarios, and to me there seems to b almost no great chance that anyone (even whales) can predict exact BTC price waves or even manipulate the price to such an extent to actually cause the wave that they would like to happen, so in that regard, a scenario in which BTC price approaches ATH but only gets within a 10% to 25% range of it and does not breach it remains decently likely, perhaps within a 30% or so arena. 

Of course, the overall sentiment remains that when momentum bring BTC within a 10% to 20% range of the previous ATH, then momentum is going to bring it over such previous ATH, and likely surpass such previous ATH by at least 50%, and that common sentiment drives what actually ends up happening and causes any alternative scenario to be really capitally intensive to carry out, so that is why I suggest 30% as the highest of such probability, but likely, a realistic probability would be below 15%.

So, even though the odds are against breaking back down after getting so close to the previous ATH, there is going to b a whole hell of a lot of FUD spreading and misinformation that actually describes such low probability scenario as if it is much more likely to happen than it is.. and that is likely to be a dominant narrative that tries (and will be somewhat successful) to trick HODLers out of some or all of their coins.

[Toxic2040]

-snip-
On a separate issue:

Question to TA experts: how likely would be a situation when we try to get to ATH, then fail (around, say, 15-18K) and revert to at least a short term, but significant bear?
Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)?
I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10%

In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500.
The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K.
The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken.

Certainly, I am NOT opposed to attempting to figure out longer term waves of BTC price and assigning probabilities to various scenarios, and to me there seems to b almost no great chance that anyone (even whales) can predict exact BTC price waves or even manipulate the price to such an extent to actually cause the wave that they would like to happen, so in that regard, a scenario in which BTC price approaches ATH but only gets within a 10% to 25% range of it and does not breach it remains decently likely, perhaps within a 30% or so arena. 

Of course, the overall sentiment remains that when momentum bring BTC within a 10% to 20% range of the previous ATH, then momentum is going to bring it over such previous ATH, and likely surpass such previous ATH by at least 50%, and that common sentiment drives what actually ends up happening and causes any alternative scenario to be really capitally intensive to carry out, so that is why I suggest 30% as the highest of such probability, but likely, a realistic probability would be below 15%.

So, even though the odds are against breaking back down after getting so close to the previous ATH, there is going to b a whole hell of a lot of FUD spreading and misinformation that actually describes such low probability scenario as if it is much more likely to happen than it is.. and that is likely to be a dominant narrative that tries (and will be somewhat successful) to trick HODLers out of some or all of their coins.

So you would describe the possibility as somewhere between 15% and 3% of a pull back from the breaching the next ATH? or between 30% and 15%?  or between 30% and 3%? You might be able to deduce why I am asking for something more specific. The ranges you postulate are fairly broad imho and I would really like to put you more on the spot with posting such a prediction.   

[Biodom]

Question to TA experts: how likely would be a situation when we try to get to ATH, then fail (around, say, 15-18K) and revert to at least a short term, but significant  bear?
Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)?
I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10%

In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500.
The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K.
The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken.

I would have to say 86.89% unlikely, 10.11% possible; but not likely and 3% likely. I would further add that I think after this cycle ends there is a good chance the next cycle will be much shorter as in the 2013-2014 run up/dip/run up.
W

#stronghands'19

Does the intercept of the exponent and logarithmic regression curves represents the likely future peak (at around 80K)?

[jbreher]

No, I likely wouldn't. To the extent that it may mean what you are implying*, it would mean I have failed as a father. For not instilling a foundation upon which she might lead a happy, fulfilling, and helpful life.

Relevance to my observation that dishonest and dishonorable opponents are once again using falsehoods to try to taint a coin by association? None.

Your relentless defensiveness and apologism for creepy people and aspects of things you have no influence over is really bleedin' weird.

If you had a point you wished to make, it did not make it into your post.

[Toxic2040]

Does the intercept of the exponent and logarithmic regression curves represents the likely future peak (at around 80K)?

That is how I am interpreting the data though I would like to note that I tend to be very conservative in most of my projections. I am a firm believer in the hope for the best, prepare for the worst mentality.

[HairyMaclairy]

My crack about Calvin Ayre being CEO of BSV was a crack at Ricky Falconwings calling himself CEO of Bcash.  

Notwithstanding the above, we all know that Calvin Ayre funded the mining equipment that got BSV off the ground and it would not have existed without Ayre’s money.  Whether that was a profitable venture for Ayre remains to be seen.  

Certainly BSV is sinking faster than a 737 Max.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good evening WO fams.
After a long day I am home and going to watch Liverpool match.

Come on Liverpool. Just a win please.

Where is LFC?

[mindrust]

Does the intercept of the exponent and logarithmic regression curves represents the likely future peak (at around 80K)?

That $80k peak makes me drool.



I also expect the top to be at between $80k and 100k and time frame looks alright too. 2022 is also pretty OK for me.

If you haven't yet, you should also see Trace Mayer's interview from 21st Feb '19.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC5im-hiHXo

The institutional money is still not in the game and they won't be till they fix the legal stuff. Be glad, even at these price levels, we are still the early adopters.

[bitserve]

House in Australia-being auctioned in crypto:
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-casuarina-129081390

Not sure if any dolphins would qualify, but whales would do, probably  

That's some quality real estate porn.

[Last of the V8s]

You have two sides, one out in the field and one in. Each man that's in the side that's in goes out, and when he's out he comes in and the next man goes in until he's out. When they are all out, the side that's out comes in and the side that's been in goes out and tries to get those coming in, out. Sometimes you get men still in and not out.
When a man goes out to go in, the men who are out try to get him out, and when he is out he goes in and the next man in goes out and goes in. There are two men called umpires who stay out all the time and they decide when the men who are in are out. When both sides have been in and all the men have been out, and both sides have been out twice after all the men have been in, including those who are not out, that is the end of the game.

[mindrust]

House in Australia-being auctioned in crypto:
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-casuarina-129081390

Not sure if any dolphins would qualify, but whales would do, probably  

That's some quality real estate porn.

Real Estate porn best porn.

And best Porn is in LA.

The shit they sell in LA on Zillow is unbelievable. This pretty thing is only $88 Million btw. Not much for a long term hodler.

Bob or Elwar can afford it easily probably. 

[HairyMaclairy]

If you are looking for a particularly deep rabbit hole with a technical bent, may I commend to you this thread on the Professional Pilots Rumour Network (PPRUNE) regarding the crash of the Ethiopian 737 Max and subsequent political and commercial fall out.  A blow by blow account with many informed observers (and a few ill-informed just to spice things up).

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/619272-ethiopian-airliner-down-africa.html

[JayJuanGee]

[ edited out]

So you would describe the possibility as somewhere between 15% and 3% of a pull back from the breaching the next ATH? or between 30% and 15%?  or between 30% and 3%? You might be able to deduce why I am asking for something more specific. The ranges you postulate are fairly broad imho and I would really like to put you more on the spot with posting such a prediction.   

So, yes.  The thing about predicting the future, is that it is difficult, and even that I am not so sure about all the factors in such medium term price waves, including how powerful any bear entity(ies) might be in order to go against BTC market price momentum, which all of us seem to be acknowledging to be a very powerful kind of force that can become quite difficult to control or to reverse once it gains momentum in a certain direction.

I am not sure from where you got 3% out of my previous post, but I think that what I said is that most reasonable and likely paths would be that a meaningful and successful pull back after getting close to previous ATH without breaching such ATH would be less than 15%, but there could be scenarios in the "possible" (rather than "probable" - as you had framed the matter) realm that could bring such a BTC price pullback into the up to 30% arena. 

The main reason that I am allowing some deviation of my more prudent "less than 15%" estimation to devolve into a more sloppy, less than 30% prediction is because of a category of known unknowns that comprise of very rich governments and banking institutions (including those playing around with BTC futures, and BTC shorting instruments) that allow for both a printing of nearly as much fiat money as they want and also some abilities to engage in short term (and maybe even possible longer term) misleading and camouflaging about whether they actually have the bitcoins that they are shorting (through fractional reserves and re-hypothecation) that may or may not be less successful than it had been in other paper asset markets (such as with gold, where surely gold is much more difficult to demand delivery or auditing, as compared with BTC). 

So, I do not claim to be any kind of genius, but I trying to grant a certain amount of benefit of the doubt to some kind of possibility that sophisticated financial players might be ready, willing and able to effectively engage in both extreme measured dirty playing, shenanigans and/or that they might be ready, willing and able to engage in a decent amount of short-term losses in order to stave off some of the seemingly inevitableness of upwards BTC price appreciation in the coming years and maybe even stall a bit longer the next bull run for an additional several years. 

Yes, I may be giving such financial and government too much credit in both their ability to accomplish such BTC manipulation or their willingness to accomplish such BTC manipulations, but I like to be somewhat mentally and financially prepared for worser case scenarios... and not take BTC price appreciation nor past patterns of BTC price performance for granted.

[JayJuanGee]

Does the intercept of the exponent and logarithmic regression curves represents the likely future peak (at around 80K)?

That is how I am interpreting the data though I would like to note that I tend to be very conservative in most of my projections. I am a firm believer in the hope for the best, prepare for the worst mentality.

You seem way more bullish than bitserve, and perhaps a few other capitulated negative Nancies.