Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Volume in the Chinese exchanges increased substantially, from 196 kBTC yesterday  to 344 kBTC today (Friday feb/21).

On the other hand, volume in exchanges outside China (excluding MtGOX) shrunk a little to 84 kBTC.  Thus, today China was ~80% of all trade,

Bitfinex (28.46 kBTC) got closer to Bitstamp (29.61) and away from third-place BTC-e (23.64).

[Peter R]

(I don know whether I should be flattered by having so much attention focused on my person.  Perhaps I should start a separate "Jorgeology" thread?   )

I'd love to read your "Jorgeology" thread.  You could collect all your thoughts on bitcoin together in your first post, and we could discuss them.  

I think there's a lot of attention focussed on your person because it is rare to have someone debate intelligently and politely against bitcoin on this forum.  To date, I believe that you are being genuine and trying to look at bitcoin with an open mind.  It is interesting for me to hear the reasons a person has views so different from my own.  You are clearly intelligent and probably a thought-leader in your sphere of influence.  It is interesting for me to watch the evolution of your thinking.  And of course I hope that I can influence it in some small way too.  

[PoolMinor]

[Peter R]

As I said before, I do not like gambling, even when the odds seem favorable.

When the odds seem favorable it's no longer gambling at least that's my definition. I know people who still insist 99% chance of winning is still gambling.  

Where is your cut-off between an investment and a gamble, Jorge?  Is investing in a tech company a gamble?  What about a high-quality corporate bond?  You could lose all of your capital in either case, right?  

The reality is that all investment is a gamble, and there is a continuum of expected returns and expected variance.  The question is simply how much variance are you willing to risk?  Answer that and then build a portfolio that you expect to give the best return subject to your variance constraint.  

Bitcoin is volatile--for sure.  But by using leverage and put/call options, I could build you a stock fund of equal variance.  However, there is no question in my mind which portfolio would have the larger expected return.  Obviously you disagree.  

Similarly, I could build another fund with 10% in bitcoin and 90% in US treasuries.  The variance of this fund would be better than most blue chip stocks (it would be very unlikely for this fund to ever lose 10% of its value), yet the upside could easily be 25% per year on average.

 

[keewee]

Uh oh...alert from Goxland...looks like we are retesting the $100 threshold...big psychological barrier if that falls (again) I suspect.

Getting awfully close to 100 now. Gonna be an interesting weekend 

[Mythul]

Case study: Ukraine currency just fell 10% vs the dollar in 3 months and it is expected to fall even further.
So almost overnight because of your government you lose 10% of your life savings. That is robbery and another reason why we need Bitcoin and it will succed.

Any comments on this news Jorge ?

[aminorex]

True story:  This week there was a trader's expo/conference in NYC.   About 1000 people in the room listening to a speaker.  He asked for a show of hands, how many people there had ever bought a bitcoin.  One hand.

[BTC5OOO]

dude is there like ANYONE in the world who will sell me BTC for $100???>>> I WILL BUY!!!LOL =) WEEEEEEEEE

[Mythul]

dude is there like ANYONE in the world who will sell me BTC for $100???>>> I WILL BUY!!!LOL =) WEEEEEEEEE

Welcome to the line. You can buy goxBTC not realBTC.

[Mythul]

$100 gone. PANIC.

[ShroomsKit]

Let's panic sell on Stamp because a non functioning exchange goes down.

What exactly will it take for the people on Stamp to stop following Gox?

[Mythul]

Double bottom forming. Prepare the pictures guys...

[virtualfaqs]

Other exchanges be strong!!!! I beg you!!!! 

[JCviggen]

So explain to me why people are selling at 100 when they could sell for 200-250$ on bitcoinbuilder?

They just don't know...?

[virtualfaqs]

So explain to me why people are selling at 100 when they could sell for 200-250$ on bitcoinbuilder?

They just don't know...?

Some don't know and others may not trust bitcoinbuilder.

[JCviggen]

So explain to me why people are selling at 100 when they could sell for 200-250$ on bitcoinbuilder?

They just don't know...?

Some don't know and others may not trust bitcoinbuilder.

Surely such a huge premium is worth testing the waters with even with just 1 coin at first.

[OldGeek]

I see that MtSux is mud crawling again.  Looks like Huobi and gox started down at about the same time.  Curious.  I've wondered (prepare tinfoil hats) if arb from gox to a Chinese exchange would be easier than gox to a western exchange.

The western exchanges aren't completely convinced.  Interesting times indeed.

[ShroomsKit]

Case study: Ukraine currency just fell 10% vs the dollar in 3 months and it is expected to fall even further.
So almost overnight because of your government you lose 10% of your life savings. That is robbery and another reason why we need Bitcoin and it will succed.

Any comments on this news Jorge ?

Funny how all the banks are so busy writing statements about the dangers of using Bitcoin.

[surfer43]

Case study: Ukraine currency just fell 10% vs the dollar in 3 months and it is expected to fall even further.
So almost overnight because of your government you lose 10% of your life savings. That is robbery and another reason why we need Bitcoin and it will succed.

Any comments on this news Jorge ?

Funny how all the banks are so busy writing statements about the dangers of using Bitcoin.

Bitcoin does in an hour what Ukraine does in a month 

[OldGeek]

I was gonna post that joking 'single digits by Friday' lament, but decided it wouldn't be in good taste.