Bitcoin still headed to $5k IMO. We shall see though. It may have bottomed out in the $6's and I speculated wrong.
There are decently-sized differences between our odds for reaching upper $5ks as compared with lower $5ks. I doubt that $5k is like butter, but you never know with BTC and breaking below $6k.. oofta...., so yeah, vagueness in the specifics of the purported prediction of bitcoin naysayers is nothing new when they want to proclaim that they were right in their negativity all along... blah blah blah.... but neither of those BTC price arenas of a 64% correction for the lower end or a 57% correction on the upper end seem to be a necessary condition if we have already had about a 53% correction down to $6,515 from our $13,880 local top from June 27.
Yeah, of course wishful thinking for bears and bitcoin naysayers to have more and more BTC price correction after we have already had decently-sized price corrections in a seemingly bull market that had been confirmed about mid-May (that is becoming a bit less clear about whether it is really and truly a bull market), but when is enough price correction enough for those hoping that bitcoin fundamentals are less strong than they seem to be and attempting to downplay the significance of any historical upwards BTC price moves.
I will concede that some of the outrageous upwards BTC price moves of the past few years had been of questionable causation or even symbols of over-exuberance.. let's include our 2017 move to $19,666 in that, and let's include our relatively recent moves to up to $13,880 (June 27) and up to $10,313 (October 25) in that.
We witnessed that none of those relatively recent upwards BTC price moves were sustainable in terms of how bitcoin price history ended up playing out, but still each of those local tops are likely going to get blown through at some point in the future, whether we are talking days, weeks, months or years... Hopefully, for the sake of LFC the highest local top from two years ago does not take more than two years from here to get blown through again... Thinking about the reluctant 4-year fractal or the stock to flow model, the odds of getting blown through seem to be in his favor though.
Hopium?
Anyone who is actually betting on either lower $5ks or upper $5ks from here could have decent odds of success, maybe approaching 40% or 50%, especially since we remain still in relatively reasonable striking distance, and I am not even sure if I would blame such additional correction on BTC, because there still seems to exist a considerable amount of price froth remaining in several of the shitcoins because I have notice that they tend to get bouncity bouncity here and there whenever BTC's price moves in any kind of positive way, and there are likely a lot of snot-nosed 14 year olds, fantasylanders, scammers and delusional alt coin pumpeners expecting another shitcoin season that might NOT get delivered to them this calendar year or even in the coming 3 to 6 months - but surely, they are waiting and hoping and might need to get more REKKT.....
Our BTC price bounce from $4,200 to $13,880 (April 1 to June 27) shows us that we don't have to have down or stagnant BTC prices in order to continue to punish shitcoiners, even if just temporary punishment, but in any event, I know that even I would not overly rely on any BTC price corrections down to any part of the $5ks happening in order for BTC to be able to resume up, even though it still is totally not out of reason for purging to go on much longer than the relatively weaker hands are able to HODL, whether they are weak-handed shit coiners or weak handed BTCers.
Personally, I am thinking that currently it would be much safer to be at least 80% prepared for UPpity BTC, even if odds for the fulfillment of down
ity are likely quite a bit less than 80% (meaning that the odds for up from here are likely not much greater than 50/50, but call me a pussy for failing and refusing to give high odds on short term BTC price moves in either direction).
Currently, my next BTC buy orders resume at a bit below $7k yet I would be quite content if those buy orders were to never fill.
A few weeks ago, I would have been quite contented if my BTC buy orders below $7,300 had never been revisited or filled, but they were filled down to about $6,600-ish (actually at that time, I had them about every $200 of drop, so $7,200-ish, $7k-ish, $6,800-ish and $6,600-ish)..... not going to complain about picking up some more coins along the way, even though I would not mind resuming our breaks above those shorter-term local BTC price tops of $10,313 or $13,880, and maybe find some possible resistance before breaking through our next possible resistance in the $17,500 area, perhaps?
Optimistic, maybe... $17,500 from here would be about a 2.25x price increase from here (referring to our about $7,700-$7,750 current price arena). Greedy? or just hopium for moar UPpity rather than down
ity?
Poll
