Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/LightningK0ala/status/1207061159762898946?s=20

[JayJuanGee]

How are your testicles holding up, folks ?

Somewhat cramped, not crushed though. Other than that they are "hoDLing" ok... as always.

We don't need a testicle story from you, again (I have the right guy?  or was it d_eddie?  involving some kind of spray), bitserve.  

That's all we need, like another hole in the head.  

[JayJuanGee]

Good buying right now given we are finally undershooting the fractal.  

Fractal, smacktal.   

[bitserve]

How are your testicles holding up, folks ?

Somewhat cramped, not crushed though. Other than that they are "hoDLing" ok... as always.

We don't need a testicle story from you, again (I have the right guy?  or was it d_eddie?  involving some kind of spray), bitserve.  

That's all we need, like another hole in the head.  

Yup, it was me, it was a cologne though. And it fucking worked no matter how fucking painful it was during the first couple of minutes.

Not unlike when we need to go down first before going up and get some relieve. Hope we are close already. Talking about Bitcoin now.

Btw, I have just broken my rules and bought some outside my "predetermined scalping system". Just a few hundreds $ that are not gonna change anything... but considering how poor I feel lately its something.

[Wekkel]

Dammit why always at times when we will be in this exact situation 

F*@# my life 

[Biodom]

Stock to flow reductio ad absurdum

https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112

Around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.

[bitserve]

Stock to flow reductio ad absurdum

https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112

I around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.

Which is the reason stock to flow model does not predict the future price. It just does... until it doesn't.

We would be *extremely* lucky if it does for another cycle.

[hnbdgr]

The current price is looking sooo tempting   Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!

[kurious]

A bit early, but am I looking at a double bottom...

Or is it just the desire to see something to lift my... spirits?

[Biodom]

Stock to flow reductio ad absurdum

https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112

I around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.

Which is the reason stock to flow model does not predict the future price. It just does... until it doesn't.

We would be *extremely* lucky if it does for another cycle.

We would also be lucky to have a model that works as good as stocks/bonds or RE 'models' worked for the last 90-100 years or so.
Right now all btc models are lacking. Maybe the best would be neural network/Deep learning.

[kurious]

The current price is looking sooo tempting   Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!

No one can (or should) advise you to use debt to buy a volatile asset.  

You must make your own choice - most people here are (like me) very bullish.  However, how will you feel if you go into debt and it drops further?  Anything is possible, so you must think carefully.  Going into debt for speculation can go badly wrong.

[bitserve]

The current price is looking sooo tempting   Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!

I won't encourage you.

Investing what you need to (eventually) give back doesn't comply with the nr1 rule of don't invest what you can't afford to lose. If you do, and the worst happen, you will become a weak hand that once certain (low) price is reached will NEED to sell.

If you are able to invest whatever amount, loaned or not, and hodl till ZERO if needed... Then go ahead (DYOR though). Otherwise please don't. We don't need no more weak hands that would sell at worst possible moment and dumping the price even more.

[bitserve]

Stock to flow reductio ad absurdum

https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112

I around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.

Which is the reason stock to flow model does not predict the future price. It just does... until it doesn't.

We would be *extremely* lucky if it does for another cycle.

We would also be lucky to have a model that works as good as stocks/bonds or RE 'models' worked for the last 90-100 years or so.
Right now all btc models are lacking. Maybe the best would be neural network/Deep learning.

Yeah, but there is a difference between an "always rising" model like stocks/bonds for the past decades and a delusional forever *exponential* growth. Even a 2x rise each year would need to eventually fail. That's not the same than a ... what¿ 10-20% (or lower) yearly average historical rise of stocks and bonds?

[LUCKMCFLY]

I like this model, it has a lot of theory of market speculation, and investment at the same time.

Stock-to-flow model predicts the long term trend, and greed & fear cause the actual bitcoin price to dance around this trend. #cointegration

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1206979035378724868

[Biodom]

A bit early, but am I looking at a double bottom...

Or is it just the desire to see something to lift my... spirits?

we could bottom at around 5K (optimistically), if we go below 6.1-6.2K.
On the other hand, we can just bounce off of 6.5K and travel north.
I am not sure who is selling a nicely appreciated asset before the year end.
It's not a typical behavior.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I dunno

I'm just not feeling the pain yet

... so it's pain you want?

[ivomm]

The current price is looking sooo tempting   Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!

It depends how big is the loan. I for example have 2 credit cards which are almost empty. I pay 100 euro each month with 4-5% interest . The sum I owe is around 6 months salary. I never had any worries even when we fell at 3K which is way below my investment point at $4800. On the contrary, I emptied the cards even more and I dind't think to fill them even above 12K. One of the reasons is that I am afraid someone can steal the sum while shopping (it happened through paypal once). Yesterday I ordered a rare medicine for my eye and I had to enter my credit card number in a not well known website. Luckily they took only the sum that was right and hopefully I will get that medicine. But my insurance is that my card is almost empty anyway. I guess I can live even with a double debt, if the monthly payment is low enough, for a long time. The most important thing is to learn to hodl no matter the circumstances. If you can't, a loan is a NO GO. If you can, then a reasonably small loan is not a bad idea in my opinion.

[HairyMaclairy]

Good buying right now given we are finally undershooting the fractal.  

Thanks for TA, but it is not a fractal since nothing here is recurring (so far) vs 2015-2017.
Everything is just random move, albeit i can give you one fundamental that was critical, IMHO, in stopping the bull run in the summer and it starts with F, not a T.

BTW, my end of the year game entry is quite possible since we are still descending.
Disgusted by seemingly pitiful year end.

No commonality here at all.

[Biodom]

Good buying right now given we are finally undershooting the fractal.  

Thanks for TA, but it is not a fractal since nothing here is recurring (so far) vs 2015-2017.
Everything is just random move, albeit i can give you one fundamental that was critical, IMHO, in stopping the bull run in the summer and it starts with F, not a T.

BTW, my end of the year game entry is quite possible since we are still descending.
Disgusted by seemingly pitiful year end.

No commonality here at all.

Well, if you take an average of two numbers, then the data point would be in between, right?
We had a huge run from 3K to almost 14K in 2019. Nothing like this exists in 2015.
BTW, I am not trying to argue your TA away. I am js that we are in the uncharted waters.

[Lambie Slayer]

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