Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seleme]

Good post by Kraken CEO - http://jesse.forthewin.com/blog/2014/02/unilateral-statement-regarding-fucked-up-shit-and-the-greater-good.html?cpm=329

[KeyserSoze]

Is this how we are going to engage BTC's critics? 

We've done much more than point and laugh. He's not up for learning. At some point there isn't much more that can be done but get a good laugh and move on while he stands there braying.

[billyjoeallen]

The bull case is being shouted down, but not by quality arguments. Look at the chart. I'd like to get a TA analysis by someone like TERA or another respected chartist. It looks ready to break out to the upside to me.

[meanig]

Be wary of the two-bit idiot guy. Just found some CONFIRMED bullshit in his gox blogs.

He says in this post from Wednesday 26th http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77920927310/i-retract-nothing-i-have-written-so-far-regarding-mt

SecondMarket was, in fact, approached by Mt. Gox some time last weekend.  Mark Karpeles approached Barry Silbert to solicit an acquisition offer, and it seems likely that Silbert, who had already committed privately to building a US-based exchange bitcoin exchange, jumped at the opportunity to explore the deal.

However, when the magnitude of the theft and potential fraud became free, Silbert and his team quickly pulled out of discussions, sent an email to all employees over the weekend banning them from buying or selling bitcoin indefinitely, and most likely reported the suspicious activity to the authorities.  As a regulated entity that probably signed a non-disclosure agreement before learning the full extent of the Mt. Gox damage, SecondMarket would have had no other choice, but to keep this out of the public eye, even if it was acting honestly behind the scenes.

But if you look at the numbers from the BIT thread you'll see that they've bought over 500 bitcoins this week.

https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=337486.msg5398518#msg5398518

[derpinheimer]

I know we are all happy that Gox is gone, but am I the only one really in awe at what happened?

Im guessing when a lot of people predicted Gox' death it was by them losing market share and closing up shop... not by losing $400m USD of user money.. just crazy! All this time, we've been in awe at the incompetence and BS.. And this is the underlying reason. I almost feel bad for Karpeles. I'd have to see the final story, but in the version i'm imagining.. the guy is just dumb, not a criminal.

Then again, we dont have the fully story.. I'm just curious if anyone feels the same shock as I do that they really are.. finally, gone?

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Think of it as the nightly chamomille tea of this thread, it will bore you to sleep.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/26

Prediction posted on: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 03:47 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Well, I am tired of being the only bull in this thread

Huobi's predicted price: 3804 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3543 CNY
Error: 261 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 589 USD
Error:  33 USD

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp returned to near the normal value R = 6.12 (actually a bit lower, closer to 6.00).  It seems that arbitrage trading has been restored.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

[fotosonics]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Think of it as the nightly chamomille tea of this thread, it will bore you to sleep.

Did you buy 1 bitcoin yet? That would make for some excitement

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday Feb/27

This was the seventh consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the seven days Feb/20--26 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

With these exceptionally high volumes, the volume V_h in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC has been above 500 BTC almost every night.  By the criterion I have been using, those points should all be considered False Slumber Points and hence ignored; which would leave me with no data and hence no prediction.

Therefore I am experimenting with a different criterion, namely redefining a Slumber Point to be True if S = V_h/V_d < 0.005, where V_d is the total volume of the period 00:00--23:59 UTC of the same UTC date (08:00 am to 07:59 am local time).

This change only affects the classification of a few Slumber Points. In particular, Feb/24 and Feb/25, which I had classified as False before, now are classified as True.  For today Feb/26, Huobi's volume V_h was 1305 BTC, and the daily volume V_d was 250.64 kBTC, giving S = 5.21 --- hence a False Slumber Point.

Now there is a clear but strongly "bearish" trend defined by the last three True points, Feb/23--25, skipping Feb/26.  The equation is p = 9881.67 - 263*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February  It seems too pessimistic, but rules are rules and traight lines are straight lines, so:

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-02-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2781 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 454 USD.

For Bitstamp, as usual, I used Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

For those who prefer a bullish prediction, I can also ignore the Feb/24 and Feb/25 points, and instead extrapolate the old trendline (which began on Feb/10, and appears to be a shifted slowly decaying exponential):

Huobi's alternate predicted price: 3802 CNY.
Bitstamp's alternate predicted price: 621 USD.

In the following chart, the bearish trendline and prediction are in orange and strong blue, whereas the bullish one is in olive-gray and light blue.


NOTE: Don't get excited yet.  The value "20,000" next to the blue rectangle belongs to the scale of the volume plot, not of the price plot.

[Arcas]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Think of it as the nightly chamomille tea of this thread, it will bore you to sleep.

[seleme]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Think of it as the nightly chamomille tea of this thread, it will bore you to sleep.

Bitcoiners lack so much sleep that they don't need anything to fail down when they decide to finally hit the bed 

[JayJuanGee]

^ bad news, but I don't think it will flash crash us back down to $400. Oh well.

What do you think, then?  Maybe we may crash in the upper $400s... once again.. and then slowly move upwards... until we are over this GOX situation... actually the GOX situation is one that is still quite filled with speculation... there is NOT really a solid indication, yet b/c once there is a solid indications, the market is going to move either up or down... but ultimately it will be moving up... .. just may be stalled a little bit before getting there... depending on the travesty of the situation.

[gentlemand]

I know we are all happy that Gox is gone, but am I the only one really in awe at what happened?

Im guessing when a lot of people predicted Gox' death it was by them losing market share and closing up shop... not by losing $400m USD of user money.. just crazy! All this time, we've been in awe at the incompetence and BS.. And this is the underlying reason. I almost feel bad for Karpeles. I'd have to see the final story, but in the version i'm imagining.. the guy is just dumb, not a criminal.

Then again, we dont have the fully story.. I'm just curious if anyone feels the same shock as I do that they really are.. finally, gone?

It's the type of outcome that had someone on here proposed it as a theory, they would've been sent to the internet naughty step for sheer outlandishness.

I still feel it's possible that the coins' fate is tied up in criminal investigations or technical mediocrity rather than having vaporised completely but anything is now possible...





 

[billyjoeallen]

I know we are all happy that Gox is gone, but am I the only one really in awe at what happened?

Im guessing when a lot of people predicted Gox' death it was by them losing market share and closing up shop... not by losing $400m USD of user money.. just crazy! All this time, we've been in awe at the incompetence and BS.. And this is the underlying reason. I almost feel bad for Karpeles. I'd have to see the final story, but in the version i'm imagining.. the guy is just dumb, not a criminal.

Then again, we dont have the fully story.. I'm just curious if anyone feels the same shock as I do that they really are.. finally, gone?

That depends on what you mean by "dumb". Karpeles made a mistake or a series of mistakes and compounded the damaged dramatically, catastrophically by trying to cover it up. He was smart enough to hide the hollowing out of a major exchange for months if not years. I'm in awe of the scope of his failure, the extent of the damage and the fact that he still is denying it, rearranging deck chairs on an empty sinking vessel. Yeah. I'm still in shock, and in 100% BTC. 

[shmadz]

Those funds are no more. They have has ceased to be. They have expired and gone to meet Satoshi. They are late funds. They are vapor. Bereft of existence, they rest in peace. If Karpeles hadn't left them on the balance sheet, they would've been written off ages ago. They've rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. They are ex-funds.

They are not gone, just pining for the blockchain...
Beautiful funds, those bitcoins.

This whole matter is far from being concluded... there is a lot of sorting that still NEEDS to be done.  I am sure that we DO NOT know the half of the financial situation of Mt. Gox and the extent to which it may be feasible to either reopen or to reimburse customers.... these details are going to be worked out in the coming weeks.. and maybe months.

The customers will never get their funds and there was never any possibility of that happening. There were no buyers:

http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77967162725/breaking-full-mt-gox-story-coming

good old bitcoin, scams within scams, makes you wonder who you can trust...

almost makes you wish you could design a system that doesn't rely on trust...

oh wait...

[JayJuanGee]

Those funds are no more. They have has ceased to be. They have expired and gone to meet Satoshi. They are late funds. They are vapor. Bereft of existence, they rest in peace. If Karpeles hadn't left them on the balance sheet, they would've been written off ages ago. They've rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. They are ex-funds.

They are not gone, just pining for the blockchain...
Beautiful funds, those bitcoins.

This whole matter is far from being concluded... there is a lot of sorting that still NEEDS to be done.  I am sure that we DO NOT know the half of the financial situation of Mt. Gox and the extent to which it may be feasible to either reopen or to reimburse customers.... these details are going to be worked out in the coming weeks.. and maybe months.

Dude, Gox was run into the ground. It was hollowed out completely. Karpeles didn't stop burning money until there was no more left to burn. It may take time to know the details or we may never know the details, but that doesn't change the relevant fact that Gox was bled dry. Denial is one of the stages of grief so it's ok, but acceptance is the last. See you there.

Why do YOU want to argue... ?  You are speculating.. .and surely, I agree that there is a lot of inferential evidence pointing to bad conduct and/or fraud... however, it is far from certain, still.  I am NOT in denial... I have NO stake in the outcome... except for the fact that I am invested in BTC.>>> but in either event, I will ake my investment decision based on facts.. rather than what continues to appear to be ambiguous speculation.

It is also far from clear about the extent of the fall out... ONCE that is made a little more clear, we will have a further market reaction (yes we already had some market reaction to this news).... and surely, the markets are going to begin to react.. far from any point of my knowing.. b/c there also seems to be quite a bit of insider trading going on in this BTC market..... ...

If BTC is NOT going to survive, then I am going to pull my investment; however, I tend to believe that the signs for the health of BTC, overall are positive.  So, in that regard, I conclude that I do NOT have enough evidence to be in denial.. and you do not have enough either... hehehehehe  

[billyjoeallen]

Those funds are no more. They have has ceased to be. They have expired and gone to meet Satoshi. They are late funds. They are vapor. Bereft of existence, they rest in peace. If Karpeles hadn't left them on the balance sheet, they would've been written off ages ago. They've rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. They are ex-funds.

They are not gone, just pining for the blockchain...
Beautiful funds, those bitcoins.

This whole matter is far from being concluded... there is a lot of sorting that still NEEDS to be done.  I am sure that we DO NOT know the half of the financial situation of Mt. Gox and the extent to which it may be feasible to either reopen or to reimburse customers.... these details are going to be worked out in the coming weeks.. and maybe months.

Dude, Gox was run into the ground. It was hollowed out completely. Karpeles didn't stop burning money until there was no more left to burn. It may take time to know the details or we may never know the details, but that doesn't change the relevant fact that Gox was bled dry. Denial is one of the stages of grief so it's ok, but acceptance is the last. See you there.

Why do YOU want to argue... ?  You are speculating.. .and surely, I agree that there is a lot of inferential evidence pointing to bad conduct and/or fraud... however, it is far from certain, still.  I am NOT in denial... I have NO stake in the outcome... except for the fact that I am invested in BTC.>>> but in either event, I will ake my investment decision based on facts.. rather than what continues to appear to be ambiguous speculation.

It is also far from clear about the extent of the fall out... ONCE that is made a little more clear, we will have a further market reaction (yes we already had some market reaction to this news).... and surely, the markets are going to begin to react.. far from any point of my knowing.. b/c there also seems to be quite a bit of insider trading going on in this BTC market..... ...

If BTC is NOT going to survive, then I am going to pull my investment; however, I tend to believe that the signs for the health of BTC, overall are positive.  So, in that regard, I conclude that I do NOT have enough evidence to be in denial.. and you do not have enough either... hehehehehe  

Good, anger- that's the next stage. You're making progress.

[KeyserSoze]

Anyway, you think Guinness is a beer...your opinions are highly fallacious.   

Agreed!

[seleme]

Are you ready to be filthy rich? 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/26/secondmarket-bitcoin-exchange-trading/5840593/