Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccine is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

It can't be contained. That's why this is the big one. Everyone is going to get it, and if the mutation rate is anything like just the flu bro, then we could end up with a yearly recurring global pandemic.

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

[JayJuanGee]

[[edited out]

Yeah exactly my thoughts. Roach #2. Roach material  

That's all we need is another Roach... hahahaha

There are a few roach-like peeps posting in this thread from time to time, and no need to really make a list...  

[Wekkel]

JJG back to wordy.
Markets in calm(er) water again.
All is fine 

[Saint-loup]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

[bitcoinPsycho]

Not buying not selling... just HODLing...

If no one buys the price won't rise up.

right - hodl is such fkcud up

only real scale & use can fix bitcoin

- finally:

hodl: no use case

Why don't you fuck off hv?  You hate bitcoin anyway

[Majormax]

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

You are right.  That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.

For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH.  That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.

Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Now lets hear the bull case.

[mindrust]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

You got me.

I never mentioned the amount though:d

[HairyMaclairy]

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

You are right.  That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.

For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH.  That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.

Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Now lets hear the bull case.

21 million.


Patience Padawan

[Majormax]

To keep things very simple, we had:

-December 2017: all time high 19.5k
-January 2019: low @ circa 3k
-June 2019: lower high @ 13.7k
-December 2019: higher low @ 6.4k
-February 2020: lower high @ 10.5k (very crucial price, the bulls will buy massively if we break above)
-March 2020: lower low 4k compared to December 2019, but higher low compared to January 2019

What is worrying in this thread is the constant higher lows (19.5k - 13.7k - 10.5k), this also means we should see at least another bounce (which would be a lower high again) at some stage, around 6.4k at least.

If I could invest big money (sadly my money is stuck at Epayments right now) I would buy a lot of Bitcoin to sell at 6.4k eventually (conservative approach).

What I also think is possible is to see a lower low compared to January 2019 which would mean 1k to 2.5k area (scary but possible). But if you are mentally strong it doesn't matter, we should see 6.4k again.

Good summary.  We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even  7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.

The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.

The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.

Just TA stuff, for fun only.

[Wekkel]

Now lets hear the bull case.

Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Nothing that makes it a valuable experiment has changed. Perhaps speculators got bit but that’s all part of the (speculation) game. If speculation would be Bitcoin’s purpose, the smash down would be bad. But Bitcoin’s game is totally something else (yes, it really is).

To me, the smash down may lengthen the path but does not hurt the experiment. Especially if the COV19 crisis leads to another round of again more crazy monetary experiments.

So nothing has changed, and the entry price just got lowered.

[mindrust]

Now lets hear the bull case.

Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Nothing that makes it a valuable experiment has changed. Perhaps speculators got bit but that’s all part of the (speculation) game. If speculation would be Bitcoin’s purpose, the smash down would be bad. But Bitcoin’s game is totally something else (yes, it really is).

To me, the smash down may lengthen the path but does not hurt the experiment. Especially if the COV19 crisis leads to another round of again more crazy monetary experiments.

So nothing has changed, and the entry price just got lowered.

Solid arguments.

I never doubted Bitcoin.

Global recession and my latest panic buys fucked with my state of mind.

When everything gets resolved it may go back to 9k in no time.

[Ibian]

I don't know. I really wish well for all of you. (Except the bcash morons)

So here is where I respond.

You've given me a ration of shit over time. Because I do not conform to your particular religious sect of the Bitcoin canon. Yet who has lost faith in Bitcoin? Not me.

While I'm truly sorry for your loss, fuck you very much.

Nobody else thinks we are part of a religion.

[JayJuanGee]

Oh, by the way..... @ JSRAW:  would you like to apologize to me for your March 2019 statement about never going below $3,900 again?      NOT that I did not want you to be correct.  

Sorry Spiderman, please accept my apology

Btw It went to $3900? i see only 4k ish range.

Sure, since we use stamp in these here parts, so far the low had gone down to $3,850 on stamp.  Hopefully that is the bottom.  Maybe it was at or below $3,900 for less than 15 minutes in total... but still.. technically we have seen lower than $3,900 prices after March of 2019.... hopefully, that is it, but you know that we really cannot really know, and better if we could just return to $10k and forget about these piddly 4 digit numbers.

was out all night with my g.f and friends celebrating her birthday, so i missed the bloodpath and all the fuckery. But when i checked it in the morning.... shit ... portfolio was/ still down significantly in fiat but i didn't lose my shit over it, luckily.

Good that you have more will power than the rest of us, and surely can be helpful to have some RL distractions, too.

I had only one buy order waiting at $5k range for ages as back-up plan, in case of any doomsday scenario. not happy with this situation overall but can't complain either as i increased my stash. Now getting my shit together for next doomsday if it happens again.

Volatility of both up and down are inevitable, but if we could go up from here, then it will make the next down feel less traumatic.  We could put in a request to bitcoin, and find out later if our request gets filled.

[Majormax]

Now lets hear the bull case.

Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Nothing that makes it a valuable experiment has changed. Perhaps speculators got bit but that’s all part of the (speculation) game. If speculation would be Bitcoin’s purpose, the smash down would be bad. But Bitcoin’s game is totally something else (yes, it really is).

To me, the smash down may lengthen the path but does not hurt the experiment. Especially if the COV19 crisis leads to another round of again more crazy monetary experiments.

So nothing has changed, and the entry price just got lowered.

Solid arguments.

I never doubted Bitcoin.

Global recession and my latest panic buys fucked with my state of mind.

When everything gets resolved it may go back to 9k in no time.

Hopefully yes.

The correlation of this move with other assets looks omninous, but it is early days, and this market turmoil may have another chapter coming up.

Only thing to do is wait for the smoke to clear and then take a look in the rear-view mirror.

[Ibian]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccine is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

It can't be contained. That's why this is the big one. Everyone is going to get it, and if the mutation rate is anything like just the flu bro, then we could end up with a yearly recurring global pandemic.

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

Right. I think I need to get really drunk today.

[serveria.com]

Back up 15% from the bottom (Bitcoinwisdom). Noice!

[Saint-loup]

Good summary.  We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even  7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.

The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.

The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.

Just TA stuff, for fun only.

+2k(ie +40%) in 1-2months is a bear case?  

[JayJuanGee]

you know that you sleep much better in BTC than in fiat,

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

Of course, no two situations are exactly alike, but we have had similar kinds of dramatic price overshoots and impending doom scenarios.

So, yeah, you cannot be blowing your whole wadd and going completely in at a whole bunch of times and then you end up running out of money...

yeah, I am no fucking saint either.  Sure, I had buy orders going down to $3k.. but still, we were almost to the point that I was running out of money and then I need to think about adjusting matters too.

Furthermore, I already told the story from November 2018, I had a whole fucking bunch of bills  coming due from some business ventures that I had entered into.. and they were a lot, and I thought that I had enough cash to cover everything.. but then when push came to shove, I had to liquidate some of my BTC at around $4k in order to make sure that I did not use up ever fucking penny of my cash stash... and what if BTC prices went down more, I needed to be prepared... so yeah.. I made similar mistakes of running out of cash and budgeting wrong and not completely having all my expenses covered.

Surely takes planning to both DCA and to buy on dips, and even though you are buying on dips, you still need to attempt to stay within a budget that does not overextend your finances.

Hopefully, you figure out a meaningful way to get to some comfortable position, and for sure, you should be able to get to a position where you can sleep comfortably at night and you do not get too upset if you are not able to look at the BTC price for an extended period of time... however, yeah, when the BTC price moves by a shitload, sometimes we can feel a kind of need to look at what is going on, especially if we have outstanding orders that we are attempting to manage.. and yeah, if our net wealth goes down 50% in a short period of time, many of us will become a bit worried about those kinds of dynamics (both in terms of finances and psychology).

[Majormax]

Good summary.  We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even  7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.

The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.

The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.

Just TA stuff, for fun only.

+2k(ie +40%) in 1-2months is a bear case?  

If it fails , yes, very much so. The bounce velocity mirrors the fall, its just a retrace before more downside. That's how markets move.

[JayJuanGee]

To keep things very simple, we had:

-December 2017: all time high 19.5k
-January 2019: low @ circa 3k
-June 2019: lower high @ 13.7k
-December 2019: higher low @ 6.4k
-February 2020: lower high @ 10.5k (very crucial price, the bulls will buy massively if we break above)
-March 2020: lower low 4k compared to December 2019, but higher low compared to January 2019

What is worrying in this thread is the constant higher lows (19.5k - 13.7k - 10.5k), this also means we should see at least another bounce (which would be a lower high again) at some stage, around 6.4k at least.

If I could invest big money (sadly my money is stuck at Epayments right now) I would buy a lot of Bitcoin to sell at 6.4k eventually (conservative approach).

What I also think is possible is to see a lower low compared to January 2019 which would mean 1k to 2.5k area (scary but possible). But if you are mentally strong it doesn't matter, we should see 6.4k again.

probably part of the reason that you do not have money to invest on your ideas is because they are dumb.

Furthermore, you seem to be selectively treating bitcoin as if it were some kind of abstract asset, and it is not.. we have convincing price prediction models that are likely to blow your dumb theories to shame... so good luck with that.. and I hope that you, at least, have stocked away enough money to pay LFC. which you are likely going to need to do long before the deadline of your December 2021 bet ending date.