Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NEMcoin]

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

[flynn]

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

MTGOX = Empty Gox, awesome

[fluidjax]

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

A question "Who took the money?" is bearish...
Get a grip, there are no facts yet.
These coins could have been stolen in 2011 and majority dumped when they were worth <$100K

[Mythul]

Bitcoin is one tough guy right now !

[GreekGeek]

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

[nakaone]

is there evidence now that the coins are STOLEN (not lost or unavailable)? - for me it makes still absolutely no sense that a company can be abused by a thief on that scale.

[tarmi]

lower highs and lows.

bearish.

[boumalo]

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

I have the same sentiment; I think a new correction should happen, it may be brutal, sudden and deep : as low as 200-230$

After this correction I think we have a lot of room to move up to a higher than 1200$ and potentially a lot higher, we may see 2000$ at the end of 2014

[MoreFun]

lower highs and lows.

bearish.

On 1h, 4h and 1d chart.

[ShroomsKit]

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

Is this a fact? If so can we see a source please.
Or did you meant to say "it is possible that...but like everyone else i'm just guessing"?
Let me know.

[F-bernanke]

is there evidence now that the coins are STOLEN (not lost or unavailable)? - for me it makes still absolutely no sense that a company can be abused by a thief on that scale.

There are lots of possibilities:


1. Mark sold the coins in 2011, to cover operational costs, assumin he could buy them back when everything was up and running, BTC price soared xxx%, he could not buy it back anymore.

2. He got hacked in ~2011 and lost the coins. No sane person has that many coins in hotwallet since 2013, back then it was plausible.

3. His coldstorage program messed up, and he lost the keys (I read some plausible theories on this on reddit).

[GreekGeek]

is there evidence now that the coins are STOLEN (not lost or unavailable)? - for me it makes still absolutely no sense that a company can be abused by a thief on that scale.

There are lots of possibilities:


1. Mark sold the coins in 2011, to cover operational costs, assumin he could buy them back when everything was up and running, BTC price soared xxx%, he could not buy it back anymore.

2. He got hacked in ~2011 and lost the coins. No sane person has that many coins in hotwallet since 2013, back then it was plausible.

3. His coldstorage program messed up, and he lost the keys (I read some plausible theories on this on reddit).

allow me to add this



4.Mark gambled the coins in 2011-2013, to cover operational costs make a profit , assuming he could buy them back when everything was up and running, BTC price soared xxx% (chinese madness+artificial pumping*), he could not buy it back anymore.

*artificial pumping = fiat shortage on Gox made people buy back coins after the April13 bubble and pumped the price in all Markets

[Hawkix]

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

[nakaone]

for me there are two legitimate options regarding the "unavailable" coins

1) confiscation by some authority (most likely after all the stuff i read) - short and long term extremely bullish

2) he lost the private keys (even thogh supply is much shorter that is extremely bearish due to the public picture that even the oldest exchange cannot handle the technical issues around the currency, how should average joe do that?)

and one option that does not make sense

3) 840k (!) coins are stolen (without noticing), that is almost 1000 coins per day since the time mtgox is operating

[Erdogan]

Hmm, we have started on an upward leg for the last hour (huobi), but for how long? Hopefully 3 hours more, so we can make some progress.

[seldon]

Hmm, we have started on an upward leg for the last hour (huobi), but for how long? Hopefully 3 hours more, so we can make some progress.

We are "up" .38% in the last hour on Houbi.. not really significant methinks.

[NEMcoin]

@ShroomsKit
I can't tell you what really happened but you won't hear that from Mark either. At least not soon-ish. 

[darklight]

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

You are forgetting administration costs.

In my experience, expert liquidators would be wondering if 21 million USD was enough to pay the costs of auditing the mess at Gox.

You almost need to run the company for a 6 months to a year to organise evaluating the situation - but without its normal profits continuing to pay the costs. And a freeze of assets pending 'investigations' will put a hold on this for ages anyway.

Then most liquidations I have seen seem to spend almost all the cash in the bank, by pure coincidence.

The only possible 'payout' would be from coins being sold from a substantial pile left (if there is one) and even then a lot of cost would still be taken off.

Basically - forget a payout of any substantial percentage, and forget seeing even this anytime soon.

DISCLOSURE: I had coins on Gox - not many, but I am not sneering, just being realistic.

Yeah, the accountants and lawyers will make sure they get their cash before anyone else. Its messed up, but customers are generally at the bottom of the list of those getting money from a bankruptcy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HairyMaclairy]

*artificial pumping = fiat shortage on Gox made people buy back coins after the April13 bubble and pumped the price in all Markets

*This* worries me.  I have thought about it before.