Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Are we safe in our holding cell?
Are we safe in our citadel?
Asks KGATLW..

Enjoy, if you can.

Crumbling Castle

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1264491582289375232

1. I consider all those little fuckers and all the other altcoiners to be scammers. The altcoin experiment failed, and bitcoin can absorb any of their 'features' if necessary, or just bung things on Layer 2 to play with. They now exist purely to take people's bitcoin away by subterfuge. It's un-brr-able, a finite resource; once it's gone it's very hard to get any more back.

2. I find these repetitive, variation on a theme memes to be like pornography. I need new and different all the time, otherwise I can't raise a ... smile.

edited

Don't get me wrong. I am NO shitcoin enthusiast, and during a large portion of our 2018/2019 flushing out of weakhands from bitcoin, and even though the shitcoin correction tended to be greater than bitcoin's, I still had tentatively conjectured that there is likely going to be at least one more shitcoin season.

Of course, more and more confidence might be drawn away from shitcoins, and if they would hurry up with their ethereum 2.0, then that will likely show a lot more lack of there, there, but I still have troubles writing off the shitcoins from having another pumpening.. even though I certainly would not be bothered if they don't.

Another reason for this particular post relates to your changed avatar.  For some reason, I had not even thought about stock 6-door station wagons, and when I googled it, I had not realized that there had been quite a few of them from different car makers.. limited edition, but still.  Surely, any of those 6-door station wagons would be collectors items if you had a garage big enough to store one of them... Interesting to drive around from time to time, too, when you are feeling like having a lot of passengers, whether adults, kids or a combo.

[Globb0]

Stretched x or y cars are good for hire purposes mainly.

I don't think many just sit in a garage

[JayJuanGee]

Hertz has filed for Chapter 11

Damn. And Rickards told me to short _Avis_. Oh well.

If you are short on something and it folds? do you lose anyway?

I can never remember which it is but longs or shorts you have to make a buy to exit at market price? or both

Forgive my lack of comprehension. I probably read it here over the years and lost the fine detail.

1.  When you are short, you sell for $X and hope to rebuy it at a lower price.  Your profit is $X - your buy price - fees and charges.  

2. If you are short something and it folds, then it is complicated because you have sold it and still have the obligation to buy it.  It may have a zero value but if it is suspended from trading then you can’t buy it.  Which is awkward.  So unfortunately the answer is “it depends” on the terms of the trade you entered into which is probably set out in the Exchange rules.  This is a trap for young players.

I am no expert about any of this, either, which is maybe causing me to be overly confused by your explanation 2.

Let's stay with the example of a short, for now:  I thought that Globb0 was suggesting a situation in which a trader wants to get out of short prior to getting force out of it (presumably a trader gets forced out when the BTC price moves too far up before the trader can close the position).

So, for the sake of attempting to learn MOAR better (hypothetical) let's also assume some terms of a recent BTC trade, let's say on May 21, a trader was convinced that BTC prices were going down to below $8,500 or lower before the BTC price goes above $9,200, so that trader enters a fairly aggressive position to short 1BTC at $8,800-ish, with a plan to close that short at around $8,500 - but will be willing to ride out such short under certain circumstances or to close such short earlier if the BTC price does not reach $8,500 as expected.  So the level of confidence causes the shorter to leverage in such a way that he would be forced to close his short at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC- so feeling some confidence that he has a cushion between $9,200 and $9,300 because he does not expect the BTC price to go above $9,200 before it at least goes down to $8,500.

The BTC price ends up moving against this trader's short, and on May 23, he gets nervous that he is going to be forced to close at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC, so instead he manually closes the short at $9,250.  I am thinking that he just closes and loses most of his position but not all of it.  Maybe he loses 80% rather than 100%?  Globb0 seemed to have been asking whether the trader has to buy into the trade to close early, but I am thinking that the trader had already put up all of the collateral that he needed, so if he decides to close early, it is just a matter of where he closes that determines how much he is going to lose, but he does not have to put any more BTC into his trade because whatever he does is already been put up as collateral.

My whole point in bringing this up, Hairy, is because I thought that your answer was only addressing the more extreme situation of being forced out of the position when I thought that Globb0 was trying to explore the extent of the negative impact on a trader (or perhaps if a trader could save himself some money) when the trader decides to close out early rather than being forced out of his position.

[Biodom]

In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.

[Globb0]

Hertz has filed for Chapter 11

Damn. And Rickards told me to short _Avis_. Oh well.

If you are short on something and it folds? do you lose anyway?

I can never remember which it is but longs or shorts you have to make a buy to exit at market price? or both

Forgive my lack of comprehension. I probably read it here over the years and lost the fine detail.

1.  When you are short, you sell for $X and hope to rebuy it at a lower price.  Your profit is $X - your buy price - fees and charges.  

2. If you are short something and it folds, then it is complicated because you have sold it and still have the obligation to buy it.  It may have a zero value but if it is suspended from trading then you can’t buy it.  Which is awkward.  So unfortunately the answer is “it depends” on the terms of the trade you entered into which is probably set out in the Exchange rules.  This is a trap for young players.

I am no expert about any of this, either, which is maybe causing me to be overly confused by your explanation 2.

Let's stay with the example of a short, for now:  I thought that Globb0 was suggesting a situation in which a trader wants to get out of short prior to getting force out of it (presumably a trader gets forced out when the BTC price moves too far up before the trader can close the position).

So, for the sake of attempting to learn MOAR better (hypothetical) let's also assume some terms of a recent BTC trade, let's say on May 21, a trader was convinced that BTC prices were going down to below $8,500 or lower before the BTC price goes above $9,200, so that trader enters a fairly aggressive position to short 1BTC at $8,800-ish, with a plan to close that short at around $8,500 - but will be willing to ride out such short under certain circumstances or to close such short earlier if the BTC price does not reach $8,500 as expected.  So the level of confidence causes the shorter to leverage in such a way that he would be forced to close his short at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC- so feeling some confidence that he has a cushion between $9,200 and $9,300 because he does not expect the BTC price to go above $9,200 before it at least goes down to $8,500.

The BTC price ends up moving against this trader's short, and on May 23, he gets nervous that he is going to be forced to close at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC, so instead he manually closes the short at $9,250.  I am thinking that he just closes and loses most of his position but not all of it.  Maybe he loses 80% rather than 100%?  Globb0 seemed to have been asking whether the trader has to buy into the trade to close early, but I am thinking that the trader had already put up all of the collateral that he needed, so if he decides to close early, it is just a matter of where he closes that determines how much he is going to lose, but he does not have to put any more BTC into his trade because whatever he does is already been put up as collateral.

My whole point in bringing this up, Hairy, is because I thought that your answer was only addressing the more extreme situation of being forced out of the position when I thought that Globb0 was trying to explore the extent of the negative impact on a trader (or perhaps if a trader could save himself some money) when the trader decides to close out early rather than being forced out of his position.

No I wasn't saying exit early. it was an question about the absolute. You come to exit but you cant

[Globb0]

In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.

So the opposite side still gets screwed

My thoughts were specifically around an asset heading to zero I suppose

[Biodom]

In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.

So the opposite side still gets screwed

My thoughts were specifically around an asset heading to zero I suppose

Of course, for longs in an equity bankruptcy typically means prices close to zero, eventually hitting that zero when it is declared a "worthless entity".
For bondholders, chapter 11 means some recovery, typically in the 30% range, sometimes more, sometimes less. Very often, their bonds will get converted into newly emerged company (Newco) equity, so eventually, prior bondholders can even make some money, but it would require time.

[UnDerDoG81]

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

[Globb0]

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

I think they will give up around 8k best to sell everything

A good technical analyst mindrust told me its going to zero

[Biodom]

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

BTW, according to the 2016 "fractal", we might have a 30% draw-down from high before resuming the bull market.
So, I penciled in 7000ish (plus minus $500) as a possibility. If not, excellent as well, I don't want to scare the newbies and/or children.

[Globb0]

Stop shilling your coin Biodom

[Biodom]

Stop shilling your coin Biodom

my coin? you mean btc, I hope 

[JayJuanGee]

Hertz has filed for Chapter 11

Damn. And Rickards told me to short _Avis_. Oh well.

If you are short on something and it folds? do you lose anyway?

I can never remember which it is but longs or shorts you have to make a buy to exit at market price? or both

Forgive my lack of comprehension. I probably read it here over the years and lost the fine detail.

1.  When you are short, you sell for $X and hope to rebuy it at a lower price.  Your profit is $X - your buy price - fees and charges.  

2. If you are short something and it folds, then it is complicated because you have sold it and still have the obligation to buy it.  It may have a zero value but if it is suspended from trading then you can’t buy it.  Which is awkward.  So unfortunately the answer is “it depends” on the terms of the trade you entered into which is probably set out in the Exchange rules.  This is a trap for young players.

I am no expert about any of this, either, which is maybe causing me to be overly confused by your explanation 2.

Let's stay with the example of a short, for now:  I thought that Globb0 was suggesting a situation in which a trader wants to get out of short prior to getting force out of it (presumably a trader gets forced out when the BTC price moves too far up before the trader can close the position).

So, for the sake of attempting to learn MOAR better (hypothetical) let's also assume some terms of a recent BTC trade, let's say on May 21, a trader was convinced that BTC prices were going down to below $8,500 or lower before the BTC price goes above $9,200, so that trader enters a fairly aggressive position to short 1BTC at $8,800-ish, with a plan to close that short at around $8,500 - but will be willing to ride out such short under certain circumstances or to close such short earlier if the BTC price does not reach $8,500 as expected.  So the level of confidence causes the shorter to leverage in such a way that he would be forced to close his short at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC- so feeling some confidence that he has a cushion between $9,200 and $9,300 because he does not expect the BTC price to go above $9,200 before it at least goes down to $8,500.

The BTC price ends up moving against this trader's short, and on May 23, he gets nervous that he is going to be forced to close at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC, so instead he manually closes the short at $9,250.  I am thinking that he just closes and loses most of his position but not all of it.  Maybe he loses 80% rather than 100%?  Globb0 seemed to have been asking whether the trader has to buy into the trade to close early, but I am thinking that the trader had already put up all of the collateral that he needed, so if he decides to close early, it is just a matter of where he closes that determines how much he is going to lose, but he does not have to put any more BTC into his trade because whatever he does is already been put up as collateral.

My whole point in bringing this up, Hairy, is because I thought that your answer was only addressing the more extreme situation of being forced out of the position when I thought that Globb0 was trying to explore the extent of the negative impact on a trader (or perhaps if a trader could save himself some money) when the trader decides to close out early rather than being forced out of his position.

No I wasn't saying exit early. it was an question about the absolute. You come to exit but you cant

Fair enough.... I did not know that there was such a situation that could arise, and accordingly, then maybe Hairy had answered your question for that kind of a scenario.

Seems that my hypothetical revision of the question then would have ended up being for me, then.  I still would not mind an answer to my revised and seemingly misplaced question.

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

I think they will give up around 8k best to sell everything

A good technical analyst mindrust told me its going to zero

Hahahahaha..

Actually better to just sell now... Why wait for $8k when currently you can sell for $8,960-ish?

[UnDerDoG81]

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

BTW, according to the 2016 "fractal", we might have a 30% draw-down from high before resuming the bull market.
So, I penciled in 7000ish (plus minus $500) as a possibility. If not, excellent as well.

There is a price point where mining does not make any sense/profit because the mining itself is more expensive than the price of the coin.

[Last of the V8s]

Gentlemen forget about the price for a moment as I owe you an apology, having shitposted, or maybe shatpost, my way to 1006 over 9000 posts in your august forum.
Any apology would be hollow however, intending as I do to continue such shitpostery to the very moon.



Thank you all for enabling me in my habit, and of course xhomerx10 for the superb hat.

[JayJuanGee]

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

BTW, according to the 2016 "fractal", we might have a 30% draw-down from high before resuming the bull market.
So, I penciled in 7000ish (plus minus $500) as a possibility. If not, excellent as well.

There is a price point where mining does not make any sense/profit because the mining itself is more expensive than the price of the coin.

Have you heard about BTC's difficulty adjustment?

It's a little thingie-ma-jiggie that happens about every two weeks, every 2016 blocks to be more exact.

You might want to look into that difficulty adjustment thingie... before getting your panties into a twist regarding played out nonsense downward spiraling mining theories.

[Biodom]

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

BTW, according to the 2016 "fractal", we might have a 30% draw-down from high before resuming the bull market.
So, I penciled in 7000ish (plus minus $500) as a possibility. If not, excellent as well.

There is a price point where mining does not make any sense/profit because the mining itself is more expensive than the price of the coin.

No, there is no such number because the difficulty adjusts lower dynamically once marginally profitable or unprofitable miners exit.
It does not make sense for some to mine at a certain price point at the current difficulty, but it does not mean that it is true for MOST at any particular difficulty.

[Last of the V8s]

to whit:

[UnDerDoG81]

Whats the price miners will give up and BTC dies? I wonder if these greedy people let BTC collapse just to make profit.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

BTW, according to the 2016 "fractal", we might have a 30% draw-down from high before resuming the bull market.
So, I penciled in 7000ish (plus minus $500) as a possibility. If not, excellent as well.

There is a price point where mining does not make any sense/profit because the mining itself is more expensive than the price of the coin.

No, there is no such number because the difficulty adjusts lower dynamically once marginally profitable or unprofitable miners exit.
It does not make sense for some to mine at a certain price point at the current difficulty, but it does not mean that it is true for MOST at any particular difficulty.

Allright, thats new to me.