Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/02

(It is called Chinese Slumber Method because it can put half of China's propulation to sleep.)

The last prediction was not bad but a bit too bullish, again.

Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-03-01, 23:37 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-03-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3515 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3427 CNY
Error: 88 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 572 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 561 USD
Error: 11 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

[ThatBitcoinGuy]

Antifragile:_Things_That_Gain_from_Disorder

Worst. Pyramid. Category. Ever.

[niothor]

Reddit post claiming that an operator said that an update will be posted within 6 hours:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zea3x/rough_transcript_of_my_call_with_gox/

And another claiming that an operator said that "there is no money back but to be patient, because there are good news coming on the web"
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ze9e9/goxxed_over_the_phone_mtgox_has_no_money_at_all/

edit:
This post claims that an operator says that there will be an update within 2-3 hours:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ze6a7/on_hold_with_mtgox_bankruptcy_info_line/

I like how the second one was started by a new user named goxxie
Reddit is a credible source of information like the price on gox was relevant.

[jojo69]

Serious academics shouldn't make such statements

Keep in mind that Jorge is more than just an academic.  He's a counter-revolutionary.  Anything that does some kind of damage to Bitcoin is a straw of hope at which to snatch.  Anything to forfend a future in which your children are not slaves of the fiat system.

I'm afraid I rather agree

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday Mar/03

Trade volume V_d for today Mar/02 was ~41 kBTC, and volume V_h in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 52 BTC; so, by the new rule V_h/V_d < 0.005, it is definitely a True Slumber Point.

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Mar/02 19:00--19:59) was 3427 CNY.  There is now a clear decreasing trend among the last four True points (Feb/27--28, Mar/01--02).  Therefore, it seems better to abandon the constant trend that I had been assuming for the last segment, starting Feb/20, and assume a new linear trend starting at Feb/27.  The least-squares line of those four points is p(d) = 3521.20 - 30.30*(d - 27), where {d} is the day number since Feb/01. (This line also happens to fit the Feb/26 point, even though it is nominally a False one). Thus

Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-03-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3400 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 556 USD.

In retrospect, is not worth fitting any trend to the entire Empty Gox Chaos period that followed the Second Karpeles Catastrophe (namely, the six days Feb/20--25).

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.


The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp was 6.11. That is so close to the factor R = 6.12 that I have been using, that I prefer to stick to the latter.  Thus, the prediction for Bitstamp is simply that for Huobi, divided by R = 6.12.

NOTE: I stand by my predictions, but I am not responsible for any errors that the market may make.

[niothor]

Serious academics shouldn't make such statements

Keep in mind that Jorge is more than just an academic.  He's a counter-revolutionary.  Anything that does some kind of damage to Bitcoin is a straw of hope at which to snatch.  Anything to forfend a future in which your children are not slaves of the fiat system.

That's why  I enjoy reading his postS. If he isn't able to find flaws ( thinking and acting rationally , unlike fonzie and mah) in the system , the system is one step close to being a success.

[JorgeStolfi]

If you guys don't stop picking on my person, I will have to take an extremely harsh punitive measure that you will not ever forget.  You have been warned.

[pedrohrcunha]

If you guys don't stop picking on my person, I will have to take an extremely harsh punitive measure that you will not ever forget.  You have been warned.

Jorgie don`t leave us.

[KeyserSoze]

If you guys don't stop picking on my person, I will have to take an extremely harsh punitive measure that you will not ever forget.  You have been warned.

More slumber posts?

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorgie don`t leave us.

It will be MUCH worse than that.

[JorgeStolfi]

More slumber posts?

Ha! You just can't imagine.

[simonk83]

Jorgie don`t leave us.

It will be MUCH worse than that.

You'll repost everything 3 times instead of twice?

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  02/22 !  02/23 !  02/24 !  02/25 !  02/26 !  02/27 !  02/28 !  03/01 ! 03/02 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  18.08 |  20.87 |  51.84 | 115.76 |  49.11 |  17.05 |  22.63 |  14.30 |  6.44 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |  18.68 |  14.24 |  20.78 |  73.86 |  33.61 |  14.60 |  12.74 |   9.55 |  4.58 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  BitFinEx   |  14.73 |  15.80 |  27.16 |  94.55 |  37.71 |  12.04 |  15.29 |   8.62 |  3.13 | USD                 
  Kraken     |   1.08 |   1.06 |   1.06 |   2.23 |   1.87 |   0.89 |   1.34 |   0.39 |  0.32 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.61 |   0.50 |   0.73 |   2.23 |   1.00 |   0.50 |   0.70 |   0.31 |  0.32 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.20 |   0.23 |   0.30 |   2.15 |   0.32 |   0.31 |   0.33 |   0.15 |  0.19 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.26 |   0.22 |   0.37 |   0.42 |   0.36 |   0.05 |   0.07 |   0.08 |  0.07 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  53.64 |  52.92 | 102.24 | 291.20 | 123.98 |  45.44 |  53.10 |  33.40 | 15.05 |                     

  Huobi      | 154.12 | 185.15 | 163.47 | 352.76 | 250.64 | 123.38 | 122.00 | 104.12 | 40.64 | CNY                 
  OKCoin     |  87.71 | 141.90 |  84.03 | 275.68 | 150.41 |  83.60 | 129.17 |  73.29 | 34.99 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |   9.29 |  10.42 |  13.12 |  27.72 |  14.72 |   6.71 |   7.17 |   5.02 |  2.64 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.48 |   0.62 |   0.53 |   1.10 |   0.53 |   0.31 |   0.29 |   0.30 |  0.24 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 251.60 | 338.09 | 261.15 | 657.26 | 416.30 | 214.00 | 258.63 | 182.73 | 78.51 |                     

  TOTAL      | 305.24 | 391.01 | 363.39 | 948.46 | 540.28 | 259.44 | 311.73 | 216.13 | 93.56 |                     



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[billyjoeallen]

If you guys don't stop picking on my person, I will have to take an extremely harsh punitive measure that you will not ever forget.  You have been warned.

More slumber posts?

ROTFL! I put Jorge on "ignore" because I like to think well of people and could no longer extend to him the benefit of the doubt. Now I want him to carry through with his threat because that would give me reason to respect him.

Give us your worst, you ivory-towered fraud. I'm pretty sure I deserve a come-comeuppance, but I highly doubt it's going to come from you.

[jojo69]

If you guys don't stop picking on my person, I will have to take an extremely harsh punitive measure that you will not ever forget.  You have been warned.

consequences will never be the same

[derpinheimer]

If you guys don't stop picking on my person, I will have to take an extremely harsh punitive measure that you will not ever forget.  You have been warned.

More slumber posts?

ROTFL! I put Jorge on "ignore" because I like to think well of people and could no longer extend to him the benefit of the doubt. Now I want him to carry through with his threat because that would give me reason to respect him.

Give us your worst, you ivory-towered fraud. I'm pretty sure I deserve a come-comeuppance, but I highly doubt it's going to come from you.

Im really confused, I checked back a couple pages and didnt see any conflict. Whats goin on suddenly?

[Yololintian]

Litecoin and ltc/btc continue to drop. Today they dropped a lot more than I would expect given that bitcoin didn't really move much. Do any experienced traders see this as a bearish sign for bitcoin? Is it possible that people are losing confidence in the market and therefore are selling alt-cryptos first before selling their bitcoin?

[aminorex]

checked back a couple pages and didnt see any conflict. Whats goin on suddenly?

Hidden Markov model:
Between the lines a subtext --
war for justice, truth.

[JorgeStolfi]

Today (Sunday Mar/02) trade volume was extremely low: only ~94 kBTC, the lowest since the Chinese New Year holidays (Jan/29--Feb/05).  Since that week, the volume has been below 100 kBTC only once, on Feb/19 (~95 kBTC).  Today's total was less than 1/10 of Tuesday's peak (~948 kBTC).

Compared to yesterday, volume fell 55% outside China (33 to 15), 57% in China (183 to 79), and 57% overall.  China's slice was 84% of the total.

In China, Huobi decreased the most, 61% (from 104 to 41) but was still ahead of OKCoin (35 kBTC).

Outside China, Bitstamp decreased 55% (from 14 to 6.44),  BTC-e 52% (9.55 to 4.58), and Bitfinex 64% (8.62 to 3.13).  Their ranking did not change but Bitfinex fell further behind BTC-e.

[solex]

Litecoin and ltc/btc continue to drop. Today they dropped a lot more than I would expect given that bitcoin didn't really move much. Do any experienced traders see this as a bearish sign for bitcoin? Is it possible that people are losing confidence in the market and therefore are selling alt-cryptos first before selling their bitcoin?

Litecoin is being crushed by Auroracoin. Loads of hashing power has moved across.