Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kellrobinson]

kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.

There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.

In the next year or two, there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the parabolic regression forecast (yellow) and the logistic regression forecast (blue).  By that time, there will be occasion to re-evaluate anyway.
I think corn go up, probably another crazy FOMO boom, but FOMO not guaranteed.
I'm re-evaluating my projections based on a seat-of-the-pants feeling.  The parabolic regression's projection just looks too steep.
The logistic probably isn't steep enough.
Remember y'all, these are minima traces.
So hungry honey badger gonna jump up and come down to rest sooner or later between those yellow and blue lines.  
Lotta real estate between those lines, going out into the future.  Can't be precise with this kind of stuff.
My two dinars.

I'd like to see how that looks with a terminal price of around $10Million rather than $500k. That's the price it needs to get to in order to be useful on a global scale. If it stops at $500k then it has failed and would likely go back to something much lower.

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Everybody has lost the plot due to covid lockdowns, bitcoin doing literally nothing but limping along sideways etc.
I have to admit my own mental health has been affected during this testing time for all.

Everybody just needs to chill though, I won’t say my opinions on the virus as many don’t agree but life will soon return to normal. The BTC price will move upwards soon, we haven’t seen any effect of the halving on the market yet, it was the same at this point after the 2016 halving, boring as fuck. It takes a while for the reduced amount of newly mined coins to be reflected in the price.

Miners having less coins to dump on exchanges will tell soon, it has to.

We all just need to be patient & keep our stress/anxiety levels down. Everything is going to be fine, keep on HODLING, at the end of the storm, there’s a golden sky.

Someone is providing some value. Sorry brother out of sMerits.

Quoting:

Bent as a nine-bob
note. Black as the Ace of Spades.
Our Texan cowboy.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

[yefi]

I don't understand why they're talking about a BTC twitter hack. It's a twitter hack, full stop.

Once you have achieved this, you can use it to make money. IMHO they botched it with the BTC stuff, for several reasons, including the fact that you need to be a moron to send BTC to someone under these circumstances, and morons rarely own BTC.

The only thing needed was Elon Musk's account. You build a short on Tesla, you have his account saying something like "stock value way too high", "model Y is not selling", "gigafactory is on fire", and profit from the drop.

It's like they had the keys to Fort Knox and they decided to steal the fork lift.

Seriously, what's the most bungled crime that's ever been committed? These guys are on the top ten list.

[Toxic2040]

Everybody has lost the plot due to covid lockdowns, bitcoin doing literally nothing but limping along sideways etc.
I have to admit my own mental health has been affected during this testing time for all.

Everybody just needs to chill though, I won’t say my opinions on the virus as many don’t agree but life will soon return to normal. The BTC price will move upwards soon, we haven’t seen any effect of the halving on the market yet, it was the same at this point after the 2016 halving, boring as fuck. It takes a while for the reduced amount of newly mined coins to be reflected in the price.

Miners having less coins to dump on exchanges will tell soon, it has to.

We all just need to be patient & keep our stress/anxiety levels down. Everything is going to be fine, keep on HODLING, at the end of the storm, there’s a golden sky.

+1 WOsMerit

-----

Yes, indeed Legendary, forever plucked of innocence and excuse, might I fill these big boy shoes and walk another mile or so with you lads.  Noticed Dude and JSRAW's generous contribution. Cheers! I see a similar opportunity in someone's near future 

Just had the most bad-ass stand up paddle board trip down a river, full of nature and tranquility and exactly the recharge I was looking for. Top of the summer to ya!

+1 WOsMerit

grats Icy
-----

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

+1 WOsMerit


-----

#haikusunday

Together, held all
Another Sunday rolls by
Despite the dark, light


cat pounces
4h


#dyor
D

#stronghands

[wxa7115]

The only thing needed was Elon Musk's account. You build a short on Tesla, you have his account saying something like "stock value way too high", "model Y is not selling", "gigafactory is on fire", and profit from the drop.

But that would be traceable don’t you think? The authorities will only have to look at anyone shorting Tesla and see if anyone used leverage and then look for anyone that could fit the profile of a potential hacker.

It's like they had the keys to Fort Knox and they decided to steal the fork lift.

Seriously, what's the most bungled crime that's ever been committed? These guys are on the top ten list.

I refuse to believe this was a case of flagrant stupidity, to me this is as if the hackers were after something more valuable to them, it is possible there was something in those accounts that was valuable to someone and they delivered that message as evidence they got in and got what they wanted, however just leaving a message will be suspicious so the doubling scam was just a way to conceal their intentions and make it seem as if they wanted money when what they were really after was something else.

Obviously this sounds like a conspiracy theory but I fail to see how it makes sense otherwise.

[Indymoney]

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

No he is still Hero Member. Icygreen is Legendary now.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

No he is still Hero Member. Icygreen is Legendary now.

Congrats Icy.

When was the last time we were this  quiet?

[BobLawblaw]

I cannot follow bob atm...

Not surprising.

You're so vain.
I bet you think that song is about you ?

Don't you ?

And to think I came so close to revealing myself to you back on that other thing before V8 went fulltard.

[Globb0]

Bob man chill out dude. Its no worries.

[DaRude]

The only thing needed was Elon Musk's account. You build a short on Tesla, you have his account saying something like "stock value way too high", "model Y is not selling", "gigafactory is on fire", and profit from the drop.

But that would be traceable don’t you think? The authorities will only have to look at anyone shorting Tesla and see if anyone used leverage and then look for anyone that could fit the profile of a potential hacker.

It's like they had the keys to Fort Knox and they decided to steal the fork lift.

Seriously, what's the most bungled crime that's ever been committed? These guys are on the top ten list.

I refuse to believe this was a case of flagrant stupidity, to me this is as if the hackers were after something more valuable to them, it is possible there was something in those accounts that was valuable to someone and they delivered that message as evidence they got in and got what they wanted, however just leaving a message will be suspicious so the doubling scam was just a way to conceal their intentions and make it seem as if they wanted money when what they were really after was something else.

Obviously this sounds like a conspiracy theory but I fail to see how it makes sense otherwise.

Tesla has a ton of shorters, so wouldn't be that easy, but a huge leveraged short position out of nowhere a day before would be a red flag. One thing for sure is that there are million better ways to capitalize on such access, the odd choice of BTC scam, tells us the hacker wasn't interested in monetizing the info

[OutOfMemory]

mood keeps going down
on bitcointalk's WO.
friendships are tested.

reminds me of days
when a long time friend went nuts,
broke up with everyone.

his habit was speed.
when it seemed to be too much
he grumbled all day.

shouting at his friends,
that really cared about him.
never saw him again.

(for habi)  

[WastedLTC]

Obviously this sounds like a conspiracy theory but I fail to see how it makes sense otherwise.

some say it was an attack on crypto, but I'm not convinced that is the motive.   

"After the recent hack, Twitter has introduced a new restriction, which prevents posting crypto addresses.  Right now, no one is able to post random-looking strings of numbers and letters.  While the move will prevent the kind of scams that users fell victim to, it will also limit crypto users."

[Biodom]

kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.

There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.

In the next year or two, there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the parabolic regression forecast (yellow) and the logistic regression forecast (blue).  By that time, there will be occasion to re-evaluate anyway.
I think corn go up, probably another crazy FOMO boom, but FOMO not guaranteed.
I'm re-evaluating my projections based on a seat-of-the-pants feeling.  The parabolic regression's projection just looks too steep.
The logistic probably isn't steep enough.
Remember y'all, these are minima traces.
So hungry honey badger gonna jump up and come down to rest sooner or later between those yellow and blue lines.  
Lotta real estate between those lines, going out into the future.  Can't be precise with this kind of stuff.
My two dinars.

I'd like to see how that looks with a terminal price of around $10Million rather than $500k. That's the price it needs to get to in order to be useful on a global scale. If it stops at $500k then it has failed and would likely go back to something much lower.

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

I am sorry, but this discussion is premature at best. Why fit something into a curve that is not supposed to fit?
Can you fit AAPL or AMZN into a formula? personalities, technology changes, etc , etc.
BTW, a curve suggesting 200K in 10 years is an impossibility. If it would go so slowly, it would fail long beforehand. People are impatient.
We are in a 3 year bear market and people already losing interest. The crowd is only excited if you have a parabola.
I understand S2F, but i don't get fitting btc into a regression or any other curve.

[DaRude]

Hmm chickun is not arising

[soxxx]

My thoughts: Bitcoin is going to pop one way or the other before the end of July. IMO it will depend on the Global Market. In the USA people are going lose their unemployment benefits at the end of July............what is likely to happen, is that we will see another huge stimulus bill pushed through which will lead to more inflation of the money supply. This should push the Global Markets higher, which in turn will allow Bitcoin to move higher too.

Im going to lean bullish here.

[Biodom]

My thoughts: Bitcoin is going to pop one way or the other before the end of July. IMO it will depend on the Global Market. In the USA people are going lose their unemployment benefits at the end of July............what is likely to happen, is that we will see another huge stimulus bill pushed through which will lead to more inflation of the money supply. This should push the Global Markets higher, which in turn will allow Bitcoin to move higher too.

Im going to lean bullish here.

I agree that this is probable, but the question arises..when will it stop? Never? Are we at a verge of basic income and MMT?
Too much resistance to those ideas, so it is unlikely to happen. However, passing every 6 mo a 2-3 trillion bill does not seem likely either.
At the moment, it is clearly gold and high beta stocks that benefit the most. Bitcoin is not in play and I wonder why. maybe because it was in a deep correction for too long and lost its appeal with the fast money. It could be temporary, though. At least, this is my hope, but the whole apple-cart is upside down.

If the trend described below is true, then we would have a deflationary impulse as well:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/19/wage-cuts-economy-crisis-368508

[OutOfMemory]

My thoughts: Bitcoin is going to pop one way or the other before the end of July. IMO it will depend on the Global Market. In the USA people are going lose their unemployment benefits at the end of July............what is likely to happen, is that we will see another huge stimulus bill pushed through which will lead to more inflation of the money supply. This should push the Global Markets higher, which in turn will allow Bitcoin to move higher too.

Im going to lean bullish here.

I agree that this is probable, but the question arises..when will it stop? Never? Are we at a verge of basic income and MMT?
Too much resistance to those ideas, so it is unlikely to happen. However, passing every 6 mo a 2-3 trillion bill does not seem likely either.
At the moment, it is clearly gold and high beta stocks that benefit the most. Bitcoin is not in play and I wonder why. maybe because it was in a deep correction for too long and lost its appeal with the fast money. It could be temporary, though. At least, this is my hope, but the whole apple-cart is upside down.

Regardless, there will be dumps as long as miners aren't finished liquidating spare coins.
This might also explain (partially) all the sideway-ish movements after the halvenings.
When the dumping has finished, the price has a chance to rise gradually into the next FOMO over the course of 1-2 years. I guess the next FOMO bull will be weaker, relatively, mainly because of higher corn dollar price.

Imagine SOMA disclaimer here  

[El duderino_]

I cannot follow bob atm...

Not surprising.

You're so vain.
I bet you think that song is about you ?

Don't you ?

And to think I came so close to revealing myself to you back on that other thing before V8 went fulltard.

Mmm I can only think one thing.... I have revealed myself fully to all those on our meet and I’m very glad I did so....

Also V8 is an extremely honorable man... you and everyone can take my word for that...
For you bob.... I cannot find one thing I did wrong, but see it as you pleased

Early drunk HODLsleep

Cheers brothers

[AlcoHoDL]

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

No he is still Hero Member. Icygreen is Legendary now.

Congrats Icy.

When was the last time we were this  quiet?

Yeah, congrats to Icygreen, on rising through the WO ranks!

Very quiet indeed. It does feel that something has changed... Only one force can remedy this stagnation, and that force is Bitcoin. A pump to $10k+ would surely liven up the place. Not to mention $20k+...

HoDL strong brothers. It will come.

Just be positive, and that positivity will come back to you 100% guaranteed. Sounds so cliché, I know, but it's true and it works -- whenever you have a bad argument with someone, or break up a friendship, just ask yourself if you ever were even a tiny bit unfair or did something wrong. If the answer is Yes and/or you've had a rough sleep the night after the incident, just call that person the next morning, meet up and hug him/her. If he/she doesn't want to do it, fair enough, you move on with your life. But that second chance after things have cooled off is essential. Speaking from experience.