Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

How much do Americans move the Bitcoin markets? All of the good news that I've seen come from the US doesn't seem to impact prices much.

Even though some posters here have asserted that this kind of good news in the USA and these network and infrastructure future potential of bitcoin has already been factored into the current price of bitcoin, I believe, somewhat to the contrary, that the multiple good news is going to, someday soon, cause an enormous increase in the price of bitcoin in order that bitcoin is going to catch up to where it needs to be in order to be a much more stable and viable financial instrument. 

In this regard, any BTC prices that reflect a BTC market cap of less than 20 billion dollars demonstrates to me that we are getting bargain basement BTC prices b/c in the very short term, maybe within a year or so, BTC's market cap will likely surge to at least $100 billion.. and that would signify BTC prices around $8000 per BTC.

In other words, the continued good news in the USA is going to make it more and more difficult for whales, bots and/or manipulators to keep BTC prices down...   So, even if the good news in the USA does NOT have a short term positive effect on BTC prices, these continued pieces of good news good news is going to allow for the choo choo to come more easily at some point soon.

[ChrisML]

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

did somebody say $5k in july??

I do.

[aminorex]

did somebody say $5k in july??

That is an achievable upper bound under mania conditions, on the basis of precedent alone.  A substantially lower peak would not break the pattern, fundamentally.  Nor would a longer delay.

[aminorex]

How much do Americans move the Bitcoin markets? All of the good news that I've seen come from the US doesn't seem to impact prices much.

Even though some posters here have asserted that this kind of good news in the USA and these network and infrastructure future potential of bitcoin has already been factored into the current price of bitcoin, I believe, somewhat to the contrary, that the multiple good news is going to, someday soon, cause an enormous increase in the price of bitcoin in order that bitcoin is going to catch up to where it needs to be in order to be a much more stable and viable financial instrument.  

I'm always a little wary of projection based on goal-seeking, although I admit the utility of boundary-value methods.  I'm also dubious of the impact of most news flow, whether good or bad, on BTC xrates.  This because sentiment on the margin is probably swamped by volatility, fundamentals, market microstructure, momentum factors.  Sentiment is always very bad on BTC.  Almost everyone is ignorant of BTC.  Of the remainder, the vast majority expect or desire it to fail.  A piece of good news here or there doesn't really do a lot.  It may affect speculators positions, working off of exchange balances, but not the inflows and outflows of fiat, which is where the xrates are really set.

[freebit13]

Not exactly new, but worth a read for a bit of perspective:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/02/03/these-four-charts-suggest-that-bitcoin-will-stabilize-in-the-future/

[JayJuanGee]

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

That is great!!!   When is the e-book coming out? 

Are you going to discuss potential government attempts to undermine BTC, and the fact that governments may see their abilities and efforts as very difficult to regulate and/or stifle bitocin given the P2P nature of it... which will cause governments to likely employ covert tactics to attempt to undermine bitcoin (and or to attempt to keep it in check) while appearing that they are NOT attempting to undermine bitcoin?    Also, another aspect of government is that various members of government are very confused about bitcoin.. and do NOT really know what to do.. b/c bitcoin seems so small and insignificant... relative to other markets.... such as gold or fiat currencies....

Also, interesting to know about decisions within the government about how to treat confiscated coins... could they use these coins to manipulate BTC, and have governments considered these kinds of tactics.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

 There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding  basic and silly points, like that..

It's actually extortion, which is a form of theft.

I'll try to lay it out.


Extortion (also called shakedown, outwresting, and exaction) is a criminal offense of obtaining money, property, or services from a person, entity, or institution, through coercion. Refraining from doing harm is sometimes euphemistically called protection. Extortion is commonly practiced by organized crime groups. The actual obtainment of money or property is not required to commit the offense. Making a threat of violence which refers to a requirement of a payment of money or property to halt future violence is sufficient to commit the offense. Exaction refers not only to extortion or the unlawful demanding and obtaining of something through force,[1] but additionally, in its formal definition, means the infliction of something such as pain and suffering or making somebody endure something unpleasant.
src

Coercion /koʊˈɜrʃən/ is the practice of forcing another party to act in an involuntary manner by use of intimidation or threats or some other form of pressure or force, and describes a set of various different similar types of forceful actions that violate the free will of an individual to induce a desired response. These actions can include, but are not limited to, extortion, blackmail, torture, and threats to induce favors. In law, coercion is codified as a duress crime. Such actions are used as leverage, to force the victim to act in a way contrary to their own interests. Coercion may involve the actual infliction of physical pain/injury or psychological harm in order to enhance the credibility of a threat. The threat of further harm may lead to the cooperation or obedience of the person being coerced.
src

Can you really tell me with a straight face that taxation is not extortion?

YES.  I can tell you with a straight face that you are coming at this question with fuzzy logic.  YOU seem to be so much focused on yourself that you fail to consider that there are community considerations and you, supposedly, are part of that community.  YOU seem to be case in point someone who wants to set forth trivial arguments to mislead and to distract us from the main issues regarding meaningful discussions about the role of government.  You pigeonhole all government taxes and actions as some sort of guilty by association and NO good deeds are being done by these taxes b/c they are taking money from you.. and somehow, you are likely of the belief that these services and benefits should be left to the private sector to some how miraculously carry them out.. on a voluntary basis....  YOU are communicating EXTREMISM without a foundation in reality... if you are trying to equate the community interests to be the same as the thieving interests of a criminal.

YOU are also likely the kind of guy that is so against taxes and community contribution, that he needs to be forced to pay his fair share into the community b/c you are NOT very likely without being begged to contribute on your own.   Maybe if someone kisses your feet, then maybe you will possibly decide to contribute a little bit to the community.  You are so busy thinking about yourself that you fail to understand the variety of community needs that government fulfills to service people who are NOT in the same circumstances as yourself.

Maybe if we had only a million people in the world, we could get away with each person self-sustaining and having his/her own plot... but we do NOT live in such a world.. and there are communities.. and also an existing status quo that needs to be accounted for and transition if we are going to change to some other societal arrangements that may be able to accommodate approximately 7 billion people.

[podyx]

i'm starting to consider if we are following a close to exact pattern of the april crash and the november rise

if we slowly climb up to $900 in middle of april and a crash down to $750-800 then up again, i think its safe to say we gonna see a nice rally in may or june

im seriously starting to wonder if this is happening lol

if we see $650-660 in less then 2-3 days we are on track

edit: $650 is fine tomorrow

considolation till weekend where we will see a small race to $740-760
lets see if im right

[MANofthePEOPLE]

woho finally a little buying going on!

edit; quite a bit of buying actually 

[threecats]

500+ BTC buy on BFX

[adsdas]

Here we go!

[podyx]

okay.. bitcoin. slow down

[EuroTrash]

It really looks like a thousand coins have just been market bought.

[solex]

Here we go!

Trains, dead bears and rocketships time again.

[BitChick]

It really looks like a thousand coins have just been market bought.

 

[JayJuanGee]

Not exactly new, but worth a read for a bit of perspective:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/02/03/these-four-charts-suggest-that-bitcoin-will-stabilize-in-the-future/

NOT only is the article NOT new, but the article is a month old. 

I find it a bit irritating when posters place links in threads, but they do NOT make any comment to provide any context for the reason for the link... like for example, what does the article mean to you?  Why is the article relevant to this thread?

The four bubbles described in that article could imply that we are going to move into another BTC bubble?  or what does it mean exactly?  Do you think that we are going to have less volatility in the future?  Do you believe it?  Other factors could suggest that bitcoin is going to crash.. no?  Do recent events, within the last month (such as the Mt. Gox situation) affect the predictions of the month old article?

[donut]

 There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding  basic and silly points, like that..

It's actually extortion, which is a form of theft.

I'll try to lay it out.


Extortion (also called shakedown, outwresting, and exaction) is a criminal offense of obtaining money, property, or services from a person, entity, or institution, through coercion. Refraining from doing harm is sometimes euphemistically called protection. Extortion is commonly practiced by organized crime groups. The actual obtainment of money or property is not required to commit the offense. Making a threat of violence which refers to a requirement of a payment of money or property to halt future violence is sufficient to commit the offense. Exaction refers not only to extortion or the unlawful demanding and obtaining of something through force,[1] but additionally, in its formal definition, means the infliction of something such as pain and suffering or making somebody endure something unpleasant.
src

Coercion /koʊˈɜrʃən/ is the practice of forcing another party to act in an involuntary manner by use of intimidation or threats or some other form of pressure or force, and describes a set of various different similar types of forceful actions that violate the free will of an individual to induce a desired response. These actions can include, but are not limited to, extortion, blackmail, torture, and threats to induce favors. In law, coercion is codified as a duress crime. Such actions are used as leverage, to force the victim to act in a way contrary to their own interests. Coercion may involve the actual infliction of physical pain/injury or psychological harm in order to enhance the credibility of a threat. The threat of further harm may lead to the cooperation or obedience of the person being coerced.
src

Can you really tell me with a straight face that taxation is not extortion?

YES.  I can tell you with a straight face that you are coming at this question with fuzzy logic.  YOU seem to be so much focused on yourself that you fail to consider that there are community considerations and you, supposedly, are part of that community.  YOU seem to be case in point someone who wants to set forth trivial arguments to mislead and to distract us from the main issues regarding meaningful discussions about the role of government.  You pigeonhole all government taxes and actions as some sort of guilty by association and NO good deeds are being done by these taxes b/c they are taking money from you.. and somehow, you are likely of the belief that these services and benefits should be left to the private sector to some how miraculously carry them out.. on a voluntary basis....  YOU are communicating EXTREMISM without a foundation in reality... if you are trying to equate the community interests to be the same as the thieving interests of a criminal.

YOU are also likely the kind of guy that is so against taxes and community contribution, that he needs to be forced to pay his fair share into the community b/c you are NOT very likely without being begged to contribute on your own.   Maybe if someone kisses your feet, then maybe you will possibly decide to contribute a little bit to the community.  You are so busy thinking about yourself that you fail to understand the variety of community needs that government fulfills to service people who are NOT in the same circumstances as yourself.

Maybe if we had only a million people in the world, we could get away with each person self-sustaining and having his/her own plot... but we do NOT live in such a world.. and there are communities.. and also an existing status quo that needs to be accounted for and transition if we are going to change to some other societal arrangements that may be able to accommodate approximately 7 billion people.

What is fuzzy about my logic? Seems pretty binary to me - either a given act fits the definition, or it doesn't.
Why can't you follow through to the logical conclusion?

[Richy_T]

What is fuzzy about my logic? Seems pretty binary to me - either a given act fits the definition, or it doesn't.
Why can't you follow through to the logical conclusion?

Rationalizing.

[RicePicker]

So who was saying that the 11k BFX was real and he was just offering it so someone could buy with no slippage?