Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seleme]

That was nice dump.  

caught me by complete surprise, i didn't think the first small move down to $620 was significant at all

 

[lyth0s]

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=518871

[billyjoeallen]

oh noz, Bitcoin is only 51% higher than it was three weeks ago- everybody panic!

big green candle, somebody didn't get the panic memo.

[Adrian-x]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

I'm still living in Bitcoin euphoria, since the CFR took an interest in Bitcoin only 2 of the 4 big predictions have come to pass.
1) the collapse and or outlawing of key exchanges
2) the arrests of known Bitcoin personalities
3) a media smear camping demonising Bitcoin.
4) a collapse in the price. (I'm still coming to terms with Bitcoin leaving double digits)

To be honest the only thing that can collapse the price IMO are the week hands, (non believers) stolen Bitcoin and whales redistributing/ facilitating future wealth growth, and  I think a lot of coins @ the new order of magnetude have already been flushed.

I welcome a drop but if it happens it may take time or if it is quick it will kick some new big players in the balls, if it happens.

[cbutters]

Please save us fairy god-whale.

[billyjoeallen]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

I'm still living in Bitcoin euphoria, since the CFR took an interest in Bitcoin only 2 of the 4 big predictions have come to pass.
1) the collapse and or outlawing of key exchanges
2) the arrests of known Bitcoin personalities
3) a media smear camping demonising Bitcoin.
4) a collapse in the price. (I'm still coming to terms with Bitcoin leaving double digits)

To be honest the only thing that can collapse the price IMO are the week hands, (non believers) stolen Bitcoin and whales redistributing/ facilitating future wealth growth, and  I think a lot of coins @ the new order of magnetude have already been flushed.

I welcome a drop but if it happens it may take time or if it is quick it will kick some new big players in the balls, if it happens.

Big players aren't just traders and they're not putting all their eggs in one basket. Us old hodlers have learned not to panic and newbies with millions have no reason to.

[seleme]

To be honest the only thing that can collapse the price IMO are the week hands, (non believers) stolen Bitcoin and whales redistributing/ facilitating future wealth growth, and  I think a lot of coins @ the new order of magnetude have already been flushed.

The big question for me is "what really happened to the Gox coins."  I'm working on the hypothesis that the coins were stolen along time ago and have already been absorbed by the market.  If this is true, I can't see us dipping very deep and in fact think this is quite bullish medium term.  On the other hand, if a thief really has 750,000 BTC, I could imagine considerable selling pressure for some time.  

Those coins are absorbed by market long time ago. It's not that Gox problems started yesterday.

[MAbtc]

Such volume.

[seleme]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

I'm still living in Bitcoin euphoria, since the CFR took an interest in Bitcoin only 2 of the 4 big predictions have come to pass.
1) the collapse and or outlawing of key exchanges
2) the arrests of known Bitcoin personalities
3) a media smear camping demonising Bitcoin.
4) a collapse in the price. (I'm still coming to terms with Bitcoin leaving double digits)

To be honest the only thing that can collapse the price IMO are the week hands, (non believers) stolen Bitcoin and whales redistributing/ facilitating future wealth growth, and  I think a lot of coins @ the new order of magnetude have already been flushed.

I welcome a drop but if it happens it may take time or if it is quick it will kick some new big players in the balls, if it happens.

I've got no much fear left in me, to be honest.

I've survived only April 2013 bubble with actually having coins though I watched the stuff in 2011.

The biggest fear I had with BTC is how the USA will react it and all our fears about Bitcoin going to zero were around that point last summer.

As soon as USA approached Bitcoin and announced to make it legal, I see any price drop as usual market movements. There are bear markets, there are bull markets, we might make some money in each of them or lose in downtrends but Bitcoin is here to stay and that's all I care about.

If there is one fear I have is about Bitcoin becoming irrelevant due to some superior technology but I think we have some time until that happens.

[arepo]

Such volume.

it's always beautiful to see triangle consolidation patterns on such small scales... the self-similarity in the price function is striking.

[Peter R]

If there is one fear I have is about Bitcoin becoming irrelevant due to some superior technology but I think we have some time until that happens.

I think we have a very long time until that happens.  

I remember when I was first learning about bitcoin in March 2013.  People would say how this alt coin was better because it had faster block times, or that alt coin was better because it was proof-of-stake and used less mining energy.  Or this coin has demurrage to prevent hoarding or that coin uses ASIC-resistant hashing, or this coin is "Turing complete."  What I've come to believe is that this was mostly attempts by alt coin pumpers to appeal to newbies.  It seems to make sense that a "second generation" coin would be an improvement, but the more I learn, the more I believe that there are no fundamental improvements that can be made by alt coins and design changes.    

I've now spent months researching bitcoin at the technical level and I never cease to be amazed at Satoshi's genius.  He seemed to give great thought to every detail.  

My only criticism (and perhaps I'm missing something) is the way the ECDSA signatures are included in the transaction hash (which contributed to the transaction malleability problem).  But maybe there was a reason for this too that I've missed.  Nevertheless, we should have malleability eliminated over the coming year.  

[lyth0s]

If there is one fear I have is about Bitcoin becoming irrelevant due to some superior technology but I think we have some time until that happens.

I think we have a very long time until that happens.  

I remember when I was first learning about bitcoin in March 2013.  People would say how this alt coin was better because it had faster block times, or that alt coin was better because it was proof-of-stake and used less mining energy.  Or this coin has demurrage to prevent hoarding or that coin uses ASIC-resistant hashing, or this coin is "Turing complete."  What I've come to believe is that this was mostly attempts by alt coin pumpers to appeal to newbies.  It seems to make sense that a "second generation" coin would be an improvement, but the more I learn, the more I believe that there are no fundamental problems in bitcoin that can be solved by alt coins and design changes.    

I've now spent months researching bitcoin at the technical level and I never cease to be amazed at Satoshi's genius.  He seemed to give great thought to every detail.  

My only criticism (and perhaps I'm missing something) is the way the ECDSA signatures are included in the transaction hash (which contributed to the transaction malleability problem).  But maybe there was a reason for this too that I've missed.  Nevertheless, we should have malleability eliminated over the coming years.  

Tell me if I'm wrong but wasn't malleability known for years and more of an issue with how the programers of certain exchanges verified that a transaction was sent (the lazy way of just checking the transaction hash)?

[Peter R]

Tell me if I'm wrong but wasn't malleability known for years and more of an issue with how the programers of certain exchanges verified that a transaction was sent (the lazy way of just checking the transaction hash)?

Yes, malleability was known for years and, in my opinion, wasn't even a "bug."  It was just the way bitcoin was.  Competent exchanges could never be affected by malleability.  

But it seems to me (I should give credit to DeathAndTaxes) that if the ECDSA signatures were not included in the transaction hash, then malleability would have been impossible right from the start.  But perhaps I'm missing something and it was important that the signatures were included in the transaction hash.  

[KeyserSoze]

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

[seleme]

All altcoin advantage talk is marketing stuff. At one point, the word "service" was holly grail. We barely had any bitcoin service people were using yet people were obsessed with altcoin services.

[lyth0s]

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Dinosaur Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Mar/18

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3674 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 606 USD.


The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The light blue-gray squares are the older price predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. The size of the Albertosaurus under each point indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is the mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from the ratio S.  The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the above prediction.

This diagram is a step towards "scientificating" the Chinese Slumber Method.  Instead of a binary classification of the Slumber Points into True (valid, used) and False (invalid, discarded), each point now gets assigned a numeric weight (shown above by the point's size) which is a decreasing function of the night-time activity ratio S = V_h/V_d. This weight is used for fitting each trend (by weighted least squares) and to choose breaks in the trends.  However the choice of the breaks and part of the fitting are still done by eyeballing.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which these days seems to be around 6.06 CNY/USD.

NOTE: There is no NOTE this time. I may provide two NOTES next time.

[TERA]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

[TERA]

Is anyone considering that a powerful operation is dead set on destroying the value of bitcoin once an for all?  International effort would be a piece of cake.  


Happy st paddy's

Here's the skinny: 2 out of 3 of the world's superpowers (Russia and China) are against Bitcoin. This leaves only the Unites States left to really support Bitcoin and set an authoritative precedent in the world. Also ,exchanges are dropping like flies. This year Bitcoin is actually experiencing a "reverse adoption" like never before (except maybe 2011) which is outweighing the adoption. The only hope left is that the United States continues to embrace Botcoin and that these exchanges start opening in New York in June. If I see that this is not going to happen then I will be leaving.

Tera. Calm down. Do you even listen to yourself sometimes?  Russia and China don't lead anything anywhere. They are not world leaders. However, Germany, if they were to start promoting bitcoin would be a world leader, because of their influence in Europe.  United Kingdom, same. Saudi Arabia, because of their influence in the Middle East. Hong Kong, because of their influence in Asia.

You basically pick the "axis of evil" and act like the fact that these countries (on, noos we left out the bitcoin unfriendly North Korea!) are anti-bitcoin is some sort of game changer.

Not only that but you set a deadline of June. Lol. Ok.

If you do leave, don't let the door hit you on the way out. But you know, I know, the american people know, and Bob Dole knows you aren't going anywhere.

Please replace "negativity", "positivity", etc with "speculation". Prices can move in two directions, and I am simply speculating about which way they could move based on certain events. There aren't many emotions involved.