Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

The problem I'm having is all these noob acolytes treating it like a self-fullfilling prophecy, and a religion. They buy a small piece of bitcoin and sit on it, waiting for their delayed lottery ticket to strike a winner X months down the road, all because some chart has "promised" them that a certain price will come true by a certain date. Like that is a 100% certainty.

What happens when things don't turn out like they were lead to believe? Will they all lose their shit, sell at a loss and become nocoiners again?

The problem with any kind of analysis is that you become prey to those with a better model (or better information). This to the degree that you are quite likely to perform worse than random. So you have to ask yourself what tier analysis you think you're operating under. For most people the answer will simply be "not good enough".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The problem I'm having is all these noob acolytes treating it like a self-fullfilling prophecy, and a religion. They buy a small piece of bitcoin and sit on it, waiting for their delayed lottery ticket to strike a winner X months down the road, all because some chart has "promised" them that a certain price will come true by a certain date. Like that is a 100% certainty.

What happens when things don't turn out like they were lead to believe? Will they all lose their shit, sell at a loss and become nocoiners again?

The problem with any kind of analysis is that you become prey to those with a better model (or better information). This to the degree that you are quite likely to perform worse than random. So you have to ask yourself what tier analysis you think you're operating under. For most people the answer will simply be "not good enough".

Since when are we going to have any model about the future that is going to be 100%?  The future has not happened yet.

Accordingly, if we are looking at medium to longer term, and let's say four-year cycles, then our currently top three credible models remain some kind of combination of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects... yeah, sure even with some kind of attempted hybridization of the top three models, there is still going to be probability assignments based on whatever time frame that we might be looking at and then short-term BTC price movements can mess up momentum or even a kind of need to shift the curves - so with all kinds of short-term happenings such as momentum, happenings in the shitcoin space, various bearish or bullish news, pulling of hashpower or increases to hash power or other factors, these could well have some affects on short term momentum in one direction or another, but still the overall underlying pressures involving factors of the three above listed models are likely to continue to have pulling effects on the BTC price that surely continue to cause BTC to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside (aka number go up (NGU) technologies)....

What m ore can you ask for?  Are there some better models that need to be plugged in that are not merely noise?  Yeah we here all kinds of bullshit theories and we even have guys coming in here and rolling their own models while failing/refusing to account for the most convincing and credible of the currently BTC price prediction models.  Sure bring up some other factors, and we will see if those factors mean anything to the long term models or might need to be tweaked into the models, but the vast majority of the time, a lot of these various other factors are not worthy of much beyond some kind of short-term phenomena, noise or insignificant aberrations of the data.

[proudhon]

The new poll is totally inadequate. Very disappointed. 

[aysg76]

The new poll is totally inadequate. Very disappointed. 

Similar to your scientific thoughts about bitcoin not going above this and that price?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Victorycoin]

What m ore can you ask for?  Are there some better models that need to be plugged in that are not merely noise?  Yeah we here all kinds of bullshit theories and we even have guys coming in here and rolling their own models while failing/refusing to account for the most convincing and credible of the currently BTC price prediction models.  Sure bring up some other factors, and we will see if those factors mean anything to the long term models or might need to be tweaked into the models, but the vast majority of the time, a lot of these various other factors are not worthy of much beyond some kind of short-term phenomena, noise or insignificant aberrations of the data.

I also think with you that those who work with Bitcoin first think that they have achieved a lot of success, but most of the time they work there even if they apply the complete formula of trading in cryptocurrency, but only a little bit in the case of Bitcoin. Although it is much less in number or percentage, if you apply the theory of trading very carefully 50% -60% is useful the rest is not very useful.

But if I were to talk about a few more things would say that many traders here can't accept losses because of the leverage.

[serveria.com]

-Covid propaganda-

Please take this crap over to Bob's thread in Off-topic.

Please mind your own business.

No seriously. All covid/vaccines related discussions are now happening in Bawb's thread. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JSRAW]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/pwt0kf/i_am_a_time_traveler_from_the_future_here_to_tell

[OutOfMemory]

-Covid propaganda-

Please take this crap over to Bob's thread in Off-topic.

Please mind your own business.

Bobman slap in 3... 2... 1...  

Well my Morning Glories are finally flowering...




Only problem is the weeds...



Well, not to worry, from my living room picture window they all look kinda cool together...



And you may notice the deceased house flies and high quality Amish made fly swatter. ($20 on Amazon, well worth it)

GO BITCOIN

Wouldn't the Morning Glories technically be the weeds on you weed? BTW, Morning Glories are in the Nightshade family. If I remember correctly (it's been many years since I got into this and my wife immediately proved to be far better at it) but I believe a tincture from Morning glory flowers in very low dosages could eliminate intestinal parasites, but has to be used with EXTREME caution as the line between killing the parasites and killing the host was so miniscule... You sure you want that weaving it's way through the weed(s)?

You know... How should i say it?
We used to use morning glory seeds extremely not cautionus, as a cheaply available, tamer substitute for LSD (LSA, a close relative that actually is).
Once you know how to dissolve and get rid of the stuff that makes you vomit, it's even more fun.
Don't try this at home (without my PM advices, at least, cause chemical solvents involved).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

-Covid propaganda-

Please take this crap over to Bob's thread in Off-topic.

Please mind your own business.

* BobLawblaw begins to unzip his pants, angrily.

Please continue discussion here: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=5362774.msg58045535#msg58045535


Meme for Lightning Node operators.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cryptotourist]

Woke up to another shit-fest manipulation, of our beloved savior King BTC.
Go on you filthy shorting animals, take your best shot, as time is running out for you - in every sense and meaning.

Go BTC, go!

[OutOfMemory]

Woke up to another shit-fest manipulation, of our beloved savior King BTC.
Go on you filthy shorting animals, take your best shot, as time is running out for you - in every sense and meaning.

Go BTC, go!

The market retesting $41.200 $41.800 -ish fib levels.
the third time, actually.
*yawn*

Just good old loaded fiat guns trying to accumulate at lowest possible prices, i think.

EDIT: adjusted fibs, corrected support level accordingly.

[Cryptotourist]

Woke up to another shit-fest manipulation, of our beloved savior King BTC.
Go on you filthy shorting animals, take your best shot, as time is running out for you - in every sense and meaning.

Go BTC, go!

The market retesting $41.200 $41.800 -ish fib levels.
the third time, actually.
*yawn*

Just good old loaded fiat guns trying to accumulate at lowest possible prices, i think.

EDIT: adjusted fibs, corrected support level accordingly.

I’m trying hard not to go full proudhon, and start posting “short with X100 leverage”.

[BobLawblaw]

Bottom violent rejection?

disgonbgud.gif

EDIT: ... or maybe not. Oh well. Fuck it. Off to sleep for a bit.

[Cryptotourist]

Bottom violent rejection?

disgonbgud.gif

EDIT: ... or maybe not. Oh well. Fuck it. Off to sleep for a bit.

[OutOfMemory]

Next level $41.200
Maybe we don't even hit it, because of ongoing demand. Wouldn't surprise me. Rocket is fueling up...