Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Syke]

Thanks. Do you have any experience with any of them?

I've used all 3 of them for several months. I'd rank them generally Nexo > Celsius > BlockFi. Those rankings could change depending on your situation or use case.

[shahzadafzal]

This is beautiful from every angle, at first you might think $1M looks like too optimistic or skeptical but more you focus on the graph more real it will look. Just we need to add one thing which is number of days on the inner circles. If price is increasing exponentially then number of days are also exponential. $100k is near and bitcoin will stay around 100$k for quite long time eventually reaching $1M, keeping in mind this halving will continue until around the year 2140.

I don't take this graph as a price prediction on certain date/month/year but Bitcoin price reaching $1M is fascinating. Which reminds me of Hal Finney's idea of Bitcoin price reaching $10M which has been discussed here million times.

Anyway let Hal Finney RIP and "Let's march to Q1'22!"

"I present the #Bitcoin Halving-Hype Cycle Spiral. Utilizing blocks measured in time and starting at the halving for being the cycle’s initiator due to its supply shock and hype, therefore preferable to the 4yr cycle.

Let's march to Q1'22!"


https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

This is beautiful from every angle, at first you might think $1M looks like too optimistic or skeptical but more you focus on the graph more real it will look. Just we need to add one thing which is number of days on the inner circles. If price is increasing exponentially then number of days are also exponential. $100k is near and bitcoin will stay around 100$k for quite long time eventually reaching $1M, keeping in mind this halving will continue until around the year 2140.

I don't take this graph as a price prediction on certain date/month/year but Bitcoin price reaching $1M is fascinating. Which reminds me of Hal Finney's idea of Bitcoin price reaching $10M which has been discussed here million times.

Anyway let Hal Finney RIP and "Let's march to Q1'22!"

"I present the #Bitcoin Halving-Hype Cycle Spiral. Utilizing blocks measured in time and starting at the halving for being the cycle’s initiator due to its supply shock and hype, therefore preferable to the 4yr cycle.

Let's march to Q1'22!"


https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

About 3.5 months ago I posted a comment here in WO, about the above type of graph. I find this type of polar graph very informative and containing lots of very useful information packed in a single image. The power of visualization! I'm including a summary of my conclusions here (and I'm glad they still hold true after 3.5 months):

• The spiral step is roughly one order of magnitude (10x), meaning that there is roughly a 10x price increase between Halvings. This is equivalent to an average of 1.8x price increase per year.

• The spiral circles never cross. This means that Bitcoin has always been profitable within any 4-year time period in its history.

Original post: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=178336.msg57794721#msg57794721

tl;dr: HoDL.

[Hueristic]

Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/

[AlcoHoDL]

Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/

Thanks for that. Interesting.

BTW, is it just me, or is reddit really so messed up and poorly designed for browsing posts? I just hate it every time I visit. I find it hard to navigate...

[Hueristic]

Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/

Thanks for that. Interesting.

BTW, is it just me, or is reddit really so messed up and poorly designed for browsing posts? I just hate it every time I visit. I find it hard to navigate...

Can't stand it, always get lost in reddit type threads.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

Not gonna say much about it and those who can understand it knows how the future prices are going to be and CB will be printing way high graphs then now.

[machasm]

Thanks. Do you have any experience with any of them?

I've used all 3 of them for several months. I'd rank them generally Nexo > Celsius > BlockFi. Those rankings could change depending on your situation or use case.

I have used Celsius as well as Blockfi. Another one to consider is ledn.io as it has/had better rates than the other two with higher deposit limits.
I never used them for a loan but only as a "savings" account to accrue more BTC.
I used all 3 simultaneously for around 6 months and they all performed as stated.
However, I was constantly paranoid that they were going to do a rug pull and in the end I felt that the 4 to 6 % return per annum was just not worth the risk of losing the capital.
They may well be legitimate businesses but history has shown us that there is a reason why we say "Not your keys, Not your coins".
I think I will stick with my lousy 200% by HODLing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

For all those using/considering Nexo-, Celsius-, BlockFi-type services:

Fact: "There's no free lunch."
Fact: "Not your keys, not your coins."
Subjective: "HoDLing is good enough -- don't be greedy, don't be sorry."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

This is a good argument for the slightly expanding cycle theory too, as opposed to a rigid idea of maintaining a 4 year cycle or not.

I had completely forgotten that the difference between the first and second halving was 3.75 years, as opposed to roughly 3.85 between the second and third. This also suggests that the next halving will be could be 3.9 to 3.95 years later, at least based on current projection. This would then bring it nearer to 4 years, if the cycles continue to get longer.

Is it right that with a more consistent hash rate, maintaining 10 minute block sizes, that it's unlikely to go over 4 years, or can it continue on with around 0.1+ years to add per cycle? Anyone?

Either way, adding 5 months onto each cycle top, based on halving, should at some point invalidate the 4-year cycle price-wise, sooner rather later. I had previously thought a top in late January or February, so good to see there is an argument for March as well. I personally never saw an argument for December, even if I was anticipating 6 figures like most, since the 2013 and 2017 tops are 4.08 months apart anyway.

The spiral step is roughly one order of magnitude (10x), meaning that there is roughly a 10x price increase between Halvings. This is equivalent to an average of 1.8x price increase per year.

Think it's more like 2.6x, between the second and third halving time-frame at least. Between third and fourth, maybe more like 2.5x to 2.55x. As an average only of course.
(10/3.85 10/3.9 and 10/3.95)

[d_eddie]

Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/

Thanks for that. Interesting.

BTW, is it just me, or is reddit really so messed up and poorly designed for browsing posts? I just hate it every time I visit. I find it hard to navigate...

I always use old.reddit.com

It looks and feels better, a bit more organized and easier to follow individual threads. The newer interface at (www.)reddit.com is designed to make you wander around until the end of time. Even the empty frame around the posts is an active clicking area.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

This is a good argument for the slightly expanding cycle theory too, as opposed to a rigid idea of maintaining a 4 year cycle or not.

I had completely forgotten that the difference between the first and second halving was 3.75 years, as opposed to roughly 3.85 between the second and third. This also suggests that the next halving will be could be 3.9 to 3.95 years later, at least based on current projection. This would then bring it nearer to 4 years, if the cycles continue to get longer.

Is it right that with a more consistent hash rate, maintaining 10 minute block sizes, that it's unlikely to go over 4 years, or can it continue on with around 0.1+ years to add per cycle? Anyone?

Either way, adding 5 months onto each cycle top, based on halving, should at some point invalidate the 4-year cycle price-wise, sooner rather later. I had previously thought a top in late January or February, so good to see there is an argument for March as well. I personally never saw an argument for December, even if I was anticipating 6 figures like most, since the 2013 and 2017 tops are 4.08 months apart anyway.

The spiral step is roughly one order of magnitude (10x), meaning that there is roughly a 10x price increase between Halvings. This is equivalent to an average of 1.8x price increase per year.

Think it's more like 2.6x, between the second and third halving time-frame at least. Between third and fourth, maybe more like 2.5x to 2.55x. As an average only of course.
(10/3.85 10/3.9 and 10/3.95)

It's actually ~1.8x if you consider it as a 1-year compounding period.
1.8^3.85 ~ 1.8^3.9 ~ 10

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

There is about a two mile clear stretch view into their property that we'll constantly have motion sensor monitoring and video surveillance to give us a heads up on any possible shenanigans, but from our understanding of local knowledge, the folks we had a dispute with do mostly keep to themselves, and are not particularly well regarded by the ranchers, so, we've played our cards right so far.

Just dig a moat along the property line and fill it with gasoline. This is Texas we're talking about.

But but, with the volatility of gasoline it's going to be a maintenance nightmare to keep it topped up!

[cAPSLOCK]

and let the purple posts every 100 ft serve as the traditional Texas warning to officially "Fuck around and find out"

I find that you are doing purple fence posts to be so delightfully appropriate.  Your color... and one the locals most likely know to respect.  I guess the tradition goes back.

My moms side of the family were country folk.  I used to visit my grandfather in rural NC and we would take a couple cane poles for fishing.  We fished in a creek on his property, but that was on the edge of his neighbors property.  My grandfather, a man of few words pointed out a post with a purple top and asked me if I knew what it meant.  Nope, I said.  And he told me, it's a friendly way to warn people "if you go on that land they'll shoot ya" (the way my grandfather said it was more like "shoochee" lol).