Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Apparently orange is purple too.

"In other states, such as Idaho, Montana and Arizona, orange is the color of choice for “No Trespassing” paint.

Can you get shot if you trespass?
Despite what many people may tell you, it’s not legal for landowners to shoot you if you happen to wander past one of these purple markers, however they do have the right to remove you with force if you’re caught trespassing."

For the most part the threat of deadly force is just the teeth that define the ultimate bite in the power of the land owner.  I have known many country folk in my life.  Every one of them would ask nicely before any brandishing would occur.

But property ownership is a fundamental right in my culture (one that is under threat) and on the outskirts of civilization a man must be prepared to defend what belongs to him.

[serveria.com]

Ok, I'm posting a cat picture.



Or not.

So no it works again, This is a weird day for me.

Fuck! What's wrong with imgur? Did it stop working with our top-notch bleeding-edge-tech forum? 

[JayJuanGee]

Nice try kid, but... Bad Call... seriously. If you have any interest in BTC at all, you'll benefit from the Torque tid-bits that trickle through from time to time. But Hey, no biggie, we all take wrong turns from time to time.

I am surprised that WO members care about my shit posts.

If I might indulge a wee bit:  "We" care because several times you said:  "look at me.  Look at me.  Look at me." while you were posting your largely irrelevant internally contradictory phony baloney.


 

Testing the 47K support again. It seems that some entity is stubbornly selling despite the lack of bitcoin inflows to the spot exchanges. With each day, fewer and fewer people are caught by the fear of losing fiat money, i.e being weak hands. More and more people and institutions are realizing the power of hodling, including the miners. So, unlike 2018, any significant dip in the price is short lived and bought by people with Michael Saylor's understanding and motivation. It is true that we didn't see an exponential FOMO run this year, but still we are 14x from the local bottom in March 2019 and 7x from the median price around which Bitcoin was traded in 2018-2020. And this should make us happy, not sad. I don't know what the price will be tomorrow, next month or a year. But I know that better times are coming with more retail, institutional, governments etc. adoption. And whis will affect the price in a positive way, for sure.  

Sometimes I wonder if there might some need to purge some of the froth in the various shitcoin space.. even though largely I don't give too many shits, even while acknowledging ongoing froth in those various shitcoin parts..

Such down,
So dip,
Pray to Karhu and weep.

I'm praying that my lowest buy order at $44.500 gets filled today.
All the higher ones were already hit, catching the knife  

I know it is tempting.. but you should try to stop yourself from those kinds of wishenings.

For me, it is pretty rare to get to the last buy order, so the closer that we get to my last 5-10 buy orders I start to get a little bit nervous... Of course, if we had gone up for 4x or 6.5x, then maybe it is not such a BIG deal to have several corrections along the way and to attempt to balance out some of the buy orders that had been stacking up (seemingly too much)... maybe I just have an ongoing preference for UP.. even though currently I have buy orders down to $20k, but I don't even really want anymore buy orders in the $40ks to get filled.. Of course, I am willing to tolerate such ongoing buying of BTC.. but still would prefer NOT to buy any more BTC in the $40ks.. make it stop, make it stop.. ..

Is it just me?

[Arriemoller]

Ok, I'm posting a cat picture.



Or not.

So no it works again, This is a weird day for me.

Arrie!  It has a red dildo in the foreground, damnit!

Sorry, here's another one, but I think it's a but plug.

[Arriemoller]

Ok, I'm posting a cat picture.



Or not.

So no it works again, This is a weird day for me.

Fuck! What's wrong with imgur? Did it stop working with our top-notch bleeding-edge-tech forum? 

My picture didn't work at first either, but then it just did, I think the forum is a bit wobbly.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Merited a long post…. For effort and writing work….

Everyone earns something while working 

[serveria.com]

Moar pain!!! I'm not selling, we're not selling brethren! Bring it on bears, is it all you've got? 

[OutOfMemory]

Can you get shot if you trespass?

*cough*
accidentally, maybe?
*cough*

Ok, I'm posting a cat picture.



Or not.

So no it works again, This is a weird day for me.

Arrie!  It has a red dildo in the foreground, damnit!

Looks more like a red buttplug (on a handy stick for sitting on)

Such down,
So dip,
Pray to Karhu and weep.

I'm praying that my lowest buy order at $44.500 gets filled today.
All the higher ones were already hit, catching the knife  

I know it is tempting.. but you should try to stop yourself from those kinds of wishenings.

For me, it is pretty rare to get to the last buy order, so the closer that we get to my last 5-10 buy orders I start to get a little bit nervous... Of course, if we had gone up for 4x or 6.5x, then maybe it is not such a BIG deal to have several corrections along the way and to attempt to balance out some of the buy orders that had been stacking up (seemingly too much)... maybe I just have an ongoing preference for UP.. even though currently I have buy orders down to $20k, but I don't even really want anymore buy orders in the $40ks to get filled.. Of course, I am willing to tolerate such ongoing buying of BTC.. but still would prefer NOT to buy any more BTC in the $40ks.. make it stop, make it stop.. ..

Is it just me?

I gave it up already. It stops when it stops.
Wishful thinking didn't work for me, so probably the $44.5k will never get hit  

Moar pain!!! I'm not selling, we're not selling brethren! Bring it on bears, is it all you've got? 

Whatever it takes, they haven't got enough for us all.

[serveria.com]

This is getting ridiculous! Arrie is bringing the price down by posting his red dildos and cats. We need more gay xmas cards:



 

[serveria.com]

BTW what's wrong with the mempool again? I'm waiting for a transaction to arrive for almost 24h now! Paper hands panic selling and clogging the mempool? 

[BitcoinBunny]

Who's buying this fucking shit? "The Bored Ape Yacht Club"
What the fuck is this bollocks, seriously?

I wouldn't give them 3 cents.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59638565

Utter pish.

[Biodom]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start believing that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

Possible (or as JJG says perhaps.. perhaps.. haha  ). But we can as well still be in the same cycle with a blow off top delayed until Q1 2022. Even if we're not, I don't think we're going down a lot from here because MS, Grayscale, Bukele etc are not selling I'm sure about that. Already $30k looks very improbable. There are little to no weak hands lefts (only miners desperate to cover running costs?). If I haven't sold at $69k why should I sell at $46k? Does it make any sense?  

[serveria.com]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

[OutOfMemory]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

Agree.
And... so far i've seen worse things before.

[philipma1957]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

All I know is I sold 18500 worth in early november. 61-67k I am buying it all back at far lower prices.  

Get some dip while you can.

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

[serveria.com]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

Agree.
And... so far i've seen worse things before.

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

[OutOfMemory]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

Agree.
And... so far i've seen worse things before.

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

It'll have to go below $10k for me to mindrust it.
But that's proudhon's territory i'm stepping on now