Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.

 

[JayJuanGee]

Merited a long post…. For effort and writing work….

Everyone earns something while working 

Sometimes a bit more work than initially intended...

It's not like a bot is coming up with all of the ideas contained therein.

Moar pain!!! I'm not selling, we're not selling brethren! Bring it on bears, is it all you've got? 

Gosh..

Not selling should have been a given.. .. kind of like an unspoken


Who would-a-thunk?

Ok, I'm posting a cat picture.



Or not.

So no it works again, This is a weird day for me.

Arrie!  It has a red dildo in the foreground, damnit!

Looks more like a red buttplug (on a handy stick for sitting on)

You had to go there? 

I see a pussy pic and you see..


oh well...

Such down,
So dip,
Pray to Karhu and weep.

I'm praying that my lowest buy order at $44.500 gets filled today.
All the higher ones were already hit, catching the knife  

I know it is tempting.. but you should try to stop yourself from those kinds of wishenings.

For me, it is pretty rare to get to the last buy order, so the closer that we get to my last 5-10 buy orders I start to get a little bit nervous... Of course, if we had gone up for 4x or 6.5x, then maybe it is not such a BIG deal to have several corrections along the way and to attempt to balance out some of the buy orders that had been stacking up (seemingly too much)... maybe I just have an ongoing preference for UP.. even though currently I have buy orders down to $20k, but I don't even really want anymore buy orders in the $40ks to get filled.. Of course, I am willing to tolerate such ongoing buying of BTC.. but still would prefer NOT to buy any more BTC in the $40ks.. make it stop, make it stop.. ..

Is it just me?

I gave it up already. It stops when it stops.
Wishful thinking didn't work for me, so probably the $44.5k will never get hit  

I hope not... .. I also hope that this is the last chance, ever, for anyone to be buying BTC below $50k.. but seems like a pretty BIG ask at this point in time.

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

You speak a lot of nonsense.

Are you trying to compete with naim027 to see who can say the dumbest (or at least the most incomprehensible) things?

At least, while you are rolling your own seemingly out of your ass cycles (price prediction models) and your own formulas for determining random tops/bottoms, you concede that the top might not be in.. That's one positive.

[El duderino_]

If it wasn’t cause of PlanB hopium a lot of people where saying we where in a Bearmarket mid this year at 30 K

NO one saw a pump for this year and PlanB was written off

Same thing happening now, price is low and everyone says Bear to quick imho
This time PlanB isn’t on point anymore, but I expected him to fall of the rails sooner or later with the S2F chart… it still is an interesting model, but nothing follows an exact model….

Please don’t say bear to fast you guys frighten the n00bs, and the OG’s

Weird enough




Uughh Uughh …. If it isn’t for the cash, don’t mind to much, funds are safu.
BTC saving is ultimate KEY.

[serveria.com]

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.

 

Congrats! Another WO bro set for life and got his life changed by Bitcoin. You've joined the glorious cohort of WOers on FIRE (financial independence retire early). Bawb, Jimbo etc... ranches and lakes...  no bitterness here I really adore you guys and hope to join you one day

Me, I wasn't that lucky unfortunately so I'll just stay here for a while. I have raised all my sell orders from ~50k to 80k a while ago (some WOers clairvoyant granny's prediction remember?  ).

[fillippone]

This is getting ridiculous! Arrie is bringing the price down by posting his red dildos and cats. We need more gay xmas cards:



 

Whatever it takes.




Helping my friend @LFC_Bitcoin with his image:

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Whatever it God damn takes. Happy Xmas boys.

https://i.ibb.co/HTDM0Kf/CD252054-97-FD-4-BB1-B739-A272-F493-EF39.webp"

(theymos limit on images per page so had to link)

Send it to $70,000

[vapourminer]

Merited a long post…. For effort and writing work….

Everyone earns something while working 

Sometimes a bit more work than initially intended...

It's not like a bot is coming up with all of the ideas contained therein.

no, you are at least two bots that switch back and forth as one or the other gets updated software and tested off line.

[Biodom]

@jjg...still ways to go before you learn how 'normal' humans typically talk to each other.
To whatever you say, i would respond...let's wait and see.
I understand that you are somewhat limited in what you can 'predict' and therefore, react unfavorably when someone does that "unusual' thing.
It's a weakness..you should "fight" it.
However, I see no value in various stepwise buy, sell scenarios, which are boring as heck, so it is that.

[shasan]

Whatever it God damn takes. Happy Xmas boys.

https://i.ibb.co/HTDM0Kf/CD252054-97-FD-4-BB1-B739-A272-F493-EF39.webp"

(theymos limit on images per page so had to link)

Send it to $70,000

[JayJuanGee]

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

[Richy_T]

The participants discussed multilateral policies to respond to the crisis, including a coordinated bank holiday, debt repayment grace periods, SWAP/REPO agreements and coordinated delinking from major currencies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

While I agree with the comprehensive conclusion of TA ("chaotic mess"), shouldn't this news be bullish (if it's for real)?

Germany's largest savings bank planning to allow customers to buy/sell and HODL #Bitcoin

All the news right now should be bullish but  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[serveria.com]

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

This is so true. Good point. Let's wait and see. It ain't over until it's over. 

[Richy_T]

My brother from a different mother.

The threaded view is too chaotic for my tastes.  A good old flat forum style with the sensible use of quotes like this one, is my fav.

Yes. Threaded forums also suffer from all topics eventually sliding from prominence meaning old threads get retrod again and again. A good usenet thread could last for years.

I actually have some thoughts on a usenet 2.0 with cryptography and better decentralization. I should really start putting pen to paper on it.

[philipma1957]

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

     Holy covid-19 has radically altered the entire worlds economy it has altered this cycle
  so much that in effect there is no true predictablitly.

BTW most efforts to predict are and will be futile.

It not that no cycle is a fact it is that the cycle is twisted and stretched by factors larger and bigger then a standard model of cycles.

or not. As you say.

[Richy_T]

It's odd but sensible.  One can post signs, but that is messy and liable to loss and damage while painting the top of a fence post purple is cheap and will last years if not decades.  It's only drawback is you better know what it means.

Is there a way you are supposed to paint it so people know which side of the line they're on?

[Hueristic]

The world is full of Kings and Queens
Who blind your eyes and steal your dreams

#Hold

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash!  

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.

Can't say that I am not disappointed a wee bit..

But for sure you know you better than we do.. and each of us should do what we believe to be the best for our particular circumstances and so that we can sleep well at night too...

If it wasn’t cause of PlanB hopium a lot of people where saying we where in a Bearmarket mid this year at 30 K

NO one saw a pump for this year and PlanB was written off

Same thing happening now, price is low and everyone says Bear to quick imho
This time PlanB isn’t on point anymore, but I expected him to fall of the rails sooner or later with the S2F chart… it still is an interesting model, but nothing follows an exact model….

Please don’t say bear to fast you guys frighten the n00bs, and the OG’s

Weird enough




Uughh Uughh …. If it isn’t for the cash, don’t mind to much, funds are safu.
BTC saving is ultimate KEY.

There is something wrong with your little rendition, dude...

For sure you can proclaim that PlanB was wrong about November and even likely December in his bottom models.. but those models were a bit stupid in the first place.

As far as the stock to flow and the following of 4 year cycles, I doubt that you can proclaim those to be wrong until maybe 3rd quarter of 2022.. or some outrageous deviation from the mean price predicted therein that would last for a long time.

One thing about models is that they are not off.

They can be one or two standard deviations off of the mean and still end up being correct.. so surely I doubt that we are really very far off of the mean.. perhaps 1 sgtandard deviation at most... maybe we are getting a bit further off, but seems way too premature to assess that model as even being close to dead.


Furthermore, it seems to me that the model could still be correct even if the curve or the mean has to be shifted down..


So regarding PlanB's assertion that the average price for BTC should be $100k for the whole period after the halvening (which was in May 2020).. but the average price ends up being somewhere between $60k and $80k, so I doubt that the model needs to be thrown out, but instead the average needs to be shifted down to reflect the actual facts and perhaps some other adjustments need to be made to the model..

In other words, I am just saying that even if the model is not perfect, it is likely either not completely broken or even salvageable in some kind of meaningful and significant way.  

And, personally, I hardly give any shits about whether the model is correct or not, but I do believe it remains some kind of best model still available rather than some of the various random "out of my ass" spinnenings that we see popping out of various places that seem to not even be in touch with hardly any kind of meaningful reality, such as facts and logic.

Me, I wasn't that lucky unfortunately so I'll just stay here for a while. I have raised all my sell orders from ~50k to 80k a while ago (some WOers clairvoyant granny's prediction remember?  ).

I hope that you are not referring to yours truly.. because that does kind of resemble my noman's land numbers... which surely were probably moving the 50/50 to 60/40 which is a high level of certainty.. but still nothing close to any kind of certainty.

(or did i give higher numbers .. I can hardly imagine giving higher numbers than 60/40 unless it was just a very narrow question like about the bottom being in.. but not to $80k, no?.... when I talk about tops I might sometimes suggest that resistance is lessened..but beyond 60/40.. that would be pretty damned rare for me. I can dig out some of my earlier in the year numbers which likely started around July/August when we got out of the $30ks and we passed above $46k) which I would assert NOT to have been in any kind of really high levels.. sometimes I recall making higher proclamations that the bottom was in.. but not necessarily about the top.. except to say that noman's land existed, ands the underlying rationale of noman's land is that there is a lot of UPpity momentum. and less likely to have BIG corrections during that time, but still does not mean that corrections have disappeared completely from the radar.. so moving from 50/50 to something like 60/40 would be a pretty BIG-ASS move.. even though it is way far from guaranteed.. 40% is not a nothing)...

.hahahahahahaha .... makes me want to say something like this...... wait for it::::


"sorry for all the losses that I might have caused... .


















NOT

..........


I did not cause nuttin."

[Richy_T]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.

Too many people looking at inflation and thinking "I'd better keep hold of my filthy fiat as I'm not going to be able to buy as much with it" rather than "I'd better buy something worth holding with my filthy fiat before the government makes it worthless", I suspect.