Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shahzadafzal]

$46k

Bitcoin is dead!

Today We Don't
Have Any
Motivational Quotes, If You Want
To Sale, Sale!
HFSP.

[Richy_T]

It's probably all normal and stuff, but all these stories about "red" posts, trespassers, etc. made me less interested in buying a ranch, sorry.
The lake-that's another story...eventually.

Lakes tend to be on land too. Honestly, I'm not sure what I'd do. Taking care of property is a PITA.The little I've got is annoying enough. Maybe I should own nothing and be happy (I wouldn't be).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

Holy covid-19 has radically altered the entire worlds economy it has altered this cycle so much that in effect there is no true predictablitly.

Well, it is your choice if you want to believe that bitcoin is so correlated to various macro-economic matters such as Covid or various recent or ongoing economic responses to covid.

There are many of us who have been involved in bitcoin a decently long time who either reject such correlations to various contemporary macro happenings or try not to get too wrapped up into various correlations that likely do not exist even close to as much as mainstream media and other disinformational sources of information seem to want to lead us to believe.  

Yes, you can zoom out and you can see  that there may well be times of short-term bitcoin price correlations with various macro-dynamics in the world, but if you cannot see, appreciate that there is more going on in bitcoin than some of those seemingly short-term price correlations, then it seems that you might be a wee bit out of touch with what is bitcoin.  

And, if you recognize the validity and credibility of some of the other bitcoin price appreciation models you might learn to not put so much weight into either claims of correlation to such macro factors, even if you might be able to see them on the charts for various short periods of time.  There is a need to zoom out in order to NOT get distracted by some of these shorter-term claims of correlation.

You have been in bitcoin long enough that you should have figured out some of these matters by now, and even the fact that you are into bitcoin mining (and surely knowledgeable about the mining topic in a variety of ways) would cause some of us to presume that you would not have been so easily mislead into those kinds of correlation presumptions.

Of course, your history also shows that you had failed/refused to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past, and several times you have both acknowledged your failure/refusal to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past and you have even proclaimed that you have fixed some of your erroneous presumptions of the past and have become more aggressive in respects to your current bitcoin accumulation and investing, but surely on a regular basis you tend to show that you remain somewhat luke warm in regards to your own confidence levels in terms of bitcoin's upside potentials and even what seems to be its asymmetrical bet that is not exactly correlated to a variety of mainstream current happenings.

BTW most efforts to predict are and will be futile.

Of course you can think that and you can continue to fail/refuse to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP.  One way of failing/refusing to prepare for UP is to not buy/accumulate enough, and another way is to sell too much too early.  Historically, we have seen those kinds of failure/refusal to adequately prepare for UP conduct on a repeated basis.

It not that no cycle is a fact it is that the cycle is twisted and stretched by factors larger and bigger then a standard model of cycles.

Hopefully you are not failing/refusing to adequately and sufficiently prepare again.. Yes, I have seen that you have been buying on a daily basis for the past month or so and plan to continue to do it.. so there is no way to really know your situation as well as you know it...

And, surely, we should realize that even if BTC's price action does not go up as much as expected in the next quarter or even few quarters, I doubt that it would be prudent to expect that the cycles are broken, but hey, you can believe whatever you like.

or not. As you say.

I am not going to prematurely negate the best models that we have, and surely we should be taking any model with a decently large grain of salt and both financially and psychologically, we have our own personal responsibilities to be sufficiently and adequately prepared for either BTC price direction..

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.

Too many people looking at inflation and thinking "I'd better keep hold of my filthy fiat as I'm not going to be able to buy as much with it" rather than "I'd better buy something worth holding with my filthy fiat before the government makes it worthless", I suspect.

yep which is why you need to develop a fiat to btc ratio that makes sense for you.

I am older so we are set up as below

The wife is 100% fiat.

I am 80% BTC .

And each year I am gaining on the wife with my btc. net value as compared to her fiat + house net value.

It seems that I should not be accusing you as being underallocated in bitcoin then....

This is the part that can be so difficult when trying to figure out both the level of allocation and also the extent to which some reallocation needs to take place.

I would not count house as cash.. and I would not count other investments, such as equities to be cash either, even though they are very connected to some of the ideas about no place to store value and that the dollar is losing value... so yeah, people are putting their dollars into real estate and into equities... Of course for any newbie, I would be recommending to get off of zero and get to 1-10% into bitcoin, and so if any of us is in bitcoin for a while, even if we might have started out on the higher end of the 1-10% initial investment range, I had not ever really recommended reallocating out of bitcoin in any meaningful way as long as the increase in the value from the bitcoin was due to price appreciation.. however, if bitcoin were to be your only investment asset besides dollars, equities, property or some other asset classes, then there may well be some justifications to diversify somewhat out of bitcoin so that all of your eggs are not in one basket... but yeah, anyone that is already 80% in bitcoin or maybe even presumably 40% in bitcoin if they are balancing out with their spouse's investments then surely it is harder to figure out ways that they might not be allocated properly or not allocated sufficiently in BTC...

Maybe there is some kind of a need to mention my own allocations, again?  

For me, an allocation of around 13.5% in BTC in late 2014 had gone into the mid-80%'s in BTC in late 2017, and maybe into about around 45% in BTC during the lower parts of the 2018 crash and even the March 2020 liquidation event may have well caused my allocation in BTC to dip below 50%, so if I do a kind of quickie attempt at an assessment currently, then I might be able to say that in April 2021, my allocation in BTC likely was around 91%, and the drop in May through July brought my allocation down to about 87%, and recently it was back up to around 91% and even currently the percentage might be around 89% in BTC... so yeah, it is hard to say what others should do because I had frequently proclaimed that since 2013 my BTC investment had gone up several times, like maybe more than 40x to 70x depending on the measuring point, but all of my traditional investment may have gone up around 60% during that same time.  So the BTC has outperformed all of the other investments, and even if I were to assert that I could have comfortably lived off all of the other non-BTC investments, the fact that the BTC amounts to around 9x more than all of those other investments in the event that we are considering an allocation in the ballpark of 90/10 currently to constitute 9/1.

[Richy_T]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

It's probably all normal and stuff, but all these stories about "red" posts, trespassers, etc. made me less interested in buying a ranch, sorry.
The lake-that's another story...eventually.

Lakes tend to be on land too. Honestly, I'm not sure what I'd do. Taking care of property is a PITA.The little I've got is annoying enough. Maybe I should own nothing and be happy (I wouldn't be).

Only if you're not rich enough to pay someone else do it. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

Unless you're working cattle or building rodeo chutes, lots of modern fence is just little metal T-posts, stretched with woven or barbed wire. Not many square inches to the post.

According to the internet

"According to Central Texas Geocachers, to act as a “No Trespassing” sign, purple paint markings in Texas “must be: vertical, at least 8 inches long, at least 1 inch wide. [The] bottom of the mark should be between 3-5 feet above the ground. Markings can be no more than 100 feet apart in timberland. Markings can be no more than 1,000 feet apart on open land, [and] they must be in a place visible by those approaching the property.”"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

Unless you're working cattle or building rodeo chutes, lots of modern fence is just little metal T-posts, stretched with woven or barbed wire. Not many square inches to the post.

According to the internet

"According to Central Texas Geocachers, to act as a “No Trespassing” sign, purple paint markings in Texas “must be: vertical, at least 8 inches long, at least 1 inch wide. [The] bottom of the mark should be between 3-5 feet above the ground. Markings can be no more than 100 feet apart in timberland. Markings can be no more than 1,000 feet apart on open land, [and] they must be in a place visible by those approaching the property.”"

Okay I believe you but my tommy gun don't! 

[AlcoHoDL]

About these purple "no trespassing" markings, can't this be used by someone to get away with murder? You drag someone inside the fence, you shoot him dead, and then claim he was trespassing and did not respond to verbal warnings and warning shots. How would the authorities in the relevant USA territories deal with this?

In contrast to the above, in many (most?) countries in the world, you will be put to prison if you shoot a burglar when he is inside your house, even if you legally carry a weapon. Even more surprising is the fact that, in the UK, police officers are not normally allowed to carry firearms (IIRC -- UK WOers, please confirm if that's the case).

[aysg76]

$46k

Bitcoin is dead!

Today We Don't
Have Any
Motivational Quotes, If You Want
To Sale, Sale!
HFSP.

This phrase is pretty common to hear whenever there are similar situations of price dips or say crash and then who hates it come out loud speaking "Bitcoin is dead" and each year there are variations for it :

It has been declared dead approximately 423 times but the intersting part is it comes out even loud to fuck them up who says it is dead and grow insanely and you would find it's tremendous rise over all these years and these dips will not have much affect in the long run if you see.

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

Hey man you are early holder of 2013 as you said and even if you sell at this time you have made a fortune out of them and it's absolutely fine because at some point we will also cash out our profits and it all depends on how much we make and get satisfied with it in the end.You have done a great job holding over all these years and you are still holding 75% if your stash man c'mon it's also big considering your investment and your next plans to hold them whatever happens.

The best part is you are now chilled out and can relax because you have taken out funds at good profits so further you will gain more with time and btc pumps.The dumbass are those who have bought at top and now selling during these dips and god knows what's in their mind.

[tertius993]

About these purple "no trespassing" markings, can't this be used by someone to get away with murder? You drag someone inside the fence, you shoot him dead, and then claim he was trespassing and did not respond to verbal warnings and warning shots. How would the authorities in the relevant USA territories deal with this?

In contrast to the above, in many (most?) countries in the world, you will be put to prison if you shoot a burglar when he is inside your house, even if you legally carry a weapon. Even more surprising is the fact that, in the UK, police officers are not normally allowed to carry firearms (IIRC -- UK WOers, please confirm if that's the case).

That is correct, UK police are not routinely armed.  Only dedicated firearms officers, a tiny subset of the total force (about 5% according to a quick search), carry arms.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

About these purple "no trespassing" markings, can't this be used by someone to get away with murder? You drag someone inside the fence, you shoot him dead, and then claim he was trespassing and did not respond to verbal warnings and warning shots. How would the authorities in the relevant USA territories deal with this?

In contrast to the above, in many (most?) countries in the world, you will be put to prison if you shoot a burglar when he is inside your house, even if you legally carry a weapon. Even more surprising is the fact that, in the UK, police officers are not normally allowed to carry firearms (IIRC -- UK WOers, please confirm if that's the case).

That is correct, UK police are not routinely armed.  Only dedicated firearms officers, a tiny subset of the total force (about 5% according to a quick search), carry arms.

This is correct . Only highly trained specialist officers do this work




https://www.statista.com/statistics/319246/police-fatal-shootings-england-wales/

 In 2018/19 the police in England and Wales fatally shot three people, compared with four in the previous reporting year, and six in 2016/17. Between April 2018 and March 2019, there were 13 incidents where the police discharged firearms, five more than in 2017/18 and the highest in a single reporting year since 2008/09.

[tertius993]

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

This is a good argument for the slightly expanding cycle theory too, as opposed to a rigid idea of maintaining a 4 year cycle or not.

I had completely forgotten that the difference between the first and second halving was 3.75 years, as opposed to roughly 3.85 between the second and third. This also suggests that the next halving will be could be 3.9 to 3.95 years later, at least based on current projection. This would then bring it nearer to 4 years, if the cycles continue to get longer.

Is it right that with a more consistent hash rate, maintaining 10 minute block sizes, that it's unlikely to go over 4 years, or can it continue on with around 0.1+ years to add per cycle? Anyone?

Either way, adding 5 months onto each cycle top, based on halving, should at some point invalidate the 4-year cycle price-wise, sooner rather later. I had previously thought a top in late January or February, so good to see there is an argument for March as well. I personally never saw an argument for December, even if I was anticipating 6 figures like most, since the 2013 and 2017 tops are 4.08 months apart anyway.

The time between the halvings is (obviously) related to the hashrate, and it has been consistently under 4 years so far:

Genesis block to first halving: 1425 days (roughly 3 years and 11 months)
First halving to second halving: 1319 days (~ 3 years and 7 months)
Second halving to third: 1402 days (~3 years and 10 months)

This makes sense as if you look at the historic difficulty chart it has been growing fairly steadily since the beginning, with a steep upward line since about mid-2017 (even allowing for the drop due to the China mining ban):



Also each time the difficulty adjusts it aims to bring the current rate back to the 10 minute block interval, it does not try to fix any previous over/under run.

So although it is possible that halvings will get to be more than 4 years apart it would take an extended period of falling hashrate.  We are already slightly ahead of schedule for the 2024 halving - predicted to be 17 March 2024, or 3 years and 10 months after the 2020 halving.

Accordingly I would expect that halvings will be consistently somewhat less than four years apart, at least for the next few halvings, but each one may be slightly longer or shorter then the previous one.

[tertius993]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start believing that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

I did a similar bit of analysis in this thread: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=5375808.0

Though I took the price at the date of each halving and worked from that, and although it gives some similar results to you I think it implies the current cycle is still playing out:

The TL;DR is:

Each halving has a smaller effect than the one before and takes longer for that effect to be fully apparent:

First halving to following high: 103x increase after 366 days
Second halving to following high: 30x increase after 526 days

Predicted 3rd halving to following high: 9x increase after 755 days = $77k in May 2022

[BobLawblaw]

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

For our ranch, the pipe posts every 100 ft were entirely painted purple from top to bottom.

Big, tall, girthy, permanent, tornado-resistant, heavy metal pipes, dipped in purple paint.

Really stands out nicely against the natural greens and browns in that area.

Can't miss it!

Much more efficient than "No Trespassing" signs that tend to be shot at by passing-by drivers, or end up in need of repair/replacement at some point.

Purple, thick metal posts will outlive us both, for when the nieces and nephews inherit the place.

The saying out here, I've discovered, is roughly "Once the fences go up, all the problems tend to just go away"

People get a bit strange when multi-generational structures get torn down and renewed.

Fuck me for building them a new fence, right?

*shurg*

EDIT: Example drone shots from the ranch border showing how the purple pipes are laid out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation