I do not have access to data ANYTHING like Mr. Woo, but I am NOT seeing this retail volume anywhere...
It wasn't noticed on the charts in 2020 either, that's precisely the point here. No doubt because this specific set of retail accumulation being very low volume. This quiet accumulation began to increase from around $9K in 2020, upto $10K, down to $4K, and peaked out around $6K roughly. The accumulation is very similar to what has been seen from $40K to $69K, back down to $42K, to where price is now.
Wonder what exchange(s) he is using, and I am assuming he must be using USD volume not BTC volume. This "dip" looks NOTHING like March 2020 to me.
It is based on all BTC off-exchange wallets, not USD, as can be read in the subtitle:
"7 day change in coin balances of hodlers les less than 1 BTC".
There is also notable accumulation of
>1 BTC hodlers since $30K dip, for reference sake. The point is these "shrimps" have been outperforming whales since $3K prices, due to being more strong-handed hodlers. Dropping below $60K hasn't shaken them out either, quite the opposite, they have increased their accumulation.
To me it seems a bit difficult to make real solid conclusions in regards to that kind of data and to really assert that retail seems to be buying BTC.
Sure, if don't trust his blockchain data or think institutions have been the ones adding <1 BTC to their balance sheets in recent months, I can't convince you otherwise. It's possible, but highly unlikely imo.
For sure, many of us would like to see some increases in the buying and getting started in BTC activities of retail, especially since we have seen quite a few examples in the past year and a half of guys like Michael Saylor educating institutional investors about the value of hoarding.. and even really seeming to lead by example, too.
If only the institutions were hodlers, but you really think they are allowed to do that when sitting on considerable profits, that they are simply not used to in such a short amount of time, that their traditional and rigid risk managements strategies allow them to do so? I doubt that very much, with the exceptions of some institutions like TSLA and MSTR. A few others maybe, but clearly not the rest.
This is why no doubt why the
>1000 BTC wallets steadily increased from $6K prices to $36K, prior to $60K, only to dump their bags all the way down to $30K. Failing to re-accumulate thereafter. No surprises there, at least they've done better than in 2016 when they started dumping at $600 in order to re-accumulate at $10K. Hilarious stuff. The whales have a history of getting it wrong basically.
The
>100 BTC addresses have also performed piss poor, as has been the case since 2016 when they started dumping at $1K lol. The
>10 BTC hodlers have easily outperformed them, even if they did start selling at $20K, they've learnt from their mistakes and started re-accumulating at $30K at least, though still down considerably from $8K prices in 2020.
Of course of course we can point out how BTC prices have risen over the years, people "breaking up" their stashes, etc, but the data remains completely unaffected by these theories. Especially if you consider the <1 and >1 BTC addresses as likely enough to be DCA accumulation from larger hodlers, as well as shrimp like buyers. But this still would be categorised as retail accumulation is also the point here.
Summary: Be like the <1 BTC and >1 BTC addresses who have a good history of accumulation, not the >100 or >1000 addresses who sell too early and fail to accumulate late in the rallies.
There is also the obvious reality that Bitcoin is generally a wealth re-distribution game, and has been for 10+ years. From long-term hodlers with more, to short-term hodlers with less.
If it makes you feel better, break up those 10-1,000 stacks of BTC into 0-9 stacks, just so you feel like you are on the winning teams
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