I don't think the price wants to go down but someone has a lot of ammo. Hopefully they'll run out soon.
Short term, we are in a clear downtrend, midterm-about flat, longer term-still uptrend.
In this view btc would flatten up on the short term chart before surging higher and ultimately produce a longer cycle, terminating somewhere in Q1-Q2 2022.
This I can definitely imagine.
An alternative, worse view, would be that we are in a longer term flat similar to the one we saw in 2018 at around 6k.
This view would suggest that we would stay relatively flat for a while before a sharp plunge, which would start the long term bull.
Also totally possible, I guess.
To re-iterate, I think that we bottomed for this cycle in June and the secondary top was a simple reaction to a premature top (in April) caused by China shenanigans.
Without China, we were about to go exponential in April (all signs were there) and should have finished the cycle by May or June at the latest.
Sounds about right. Hash rate understandably capitulated, which is something never seen before in a bull market. Took 7 months to recover.
I guess you mean finished the correction by May/June, before further upside, rather than finished the cycle? That's how I'm reading it...
Instead, we got a double hump with bull energy spent between two peaks instead of one.
Right now-we are early in the NEXT cycle, imho.
Flat city.
Not doubting the possibility either. Also why I'm less concerned if price goes lower right now. I don't see a multi-year bear market coming at all.
Another theory would be sideways city (on track
for now) and forming a macro-sized bull flag, that'd be super tasty stuff with high targets.
I'ts also not what anyone would be expecting in a hurry, just like when the double top came,
so if $40K breaks I'd give it a reasonable probability.
If you zoom out, the idea doesn't look that strange, only like a maturing asset that takes a year to consolidate recent price increase. Healthy stuff imo.
The measured move would be around 200% to $200K, or even 400% to $350K if you measure the initial breakout to be from $14K rather than $20K.
The bull trap double top would then be met with a bear trap double bottom, which I find very logical as a concept, rewarding the patient again.
Also covers the theory that everyone waiting for the 200 Week MA get's left behind.... like Billy.
Nevertheless, many hoped (and still hope) to see the second run going parabolic like in 2013.
But moving the market is not so easy anymore.
I'm not so sure about that. Recently we saw price drop 20% in a day, half of which was within a 10 minute period due to high volume selling that triggered liquidations, and more selling. I don't even think this was due to low order book liquidity either, but simply an indication that the market remains highly volatile. I see no reason why this can't still happen to the upside, if shorts get's stacked up like longs were.
In summary price doesn't need an influx of buyers to move quickly, or parabolic, in one direction or another - only over-leveraged markets, of which there are plenty these days. Look at TSLA for example, huge market, but price still went parabolic and increased by 1000% within 14 months, in a traditional market with very high liquidity. In crypto markets, that's the same as 9x in 14 weeks. Like $38K to $350K...
Makes sense that almost any shitcoin couldn't reach its former ATH, when priced in BTC.
This has been the clear trend over the years, The coins making new ATH against BTC over and over again weren't around in 2017. Most of those back then that outperformed BTC are either long gone or making lower highs this year. Most shitcoins simply don't thrive in their second cycle like they do in their first, usually dying off by the 3rd.
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