Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

...........~~~~
Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. ........~~~.

I will admit that your further fleshing out of some of your rationale behind these matters does help me to understand the reasons that you are proclaiming for your position a wee bit.. so I did not conclude that you are just saying the same thing over again.. but still we seem to diverge in aspects of your way of assigning probabilities to how long this particular cycle could play out..

So, largely I would speculate that you are assigning quite a bit higher odds than me to this particular bull cycle having the potential or probability to drag out past the third quarter of 2022...

I will admit that I had even tweaked my own estimations a bit to attempt to account for some higher odds that we could get a peak in the BTC price in or after the 2nd quarter of 2022... but still I am not sure if my SOMA attempts at assigning odds had been very good because for some reason my December 16 updates to the odds that I had assigned ONLY placed peaking in or after the 3rd quarter of 2022 at 13%, and my November 4 post had placed 12% odds on such predicted phenomena.. which kind of goes to show that I may well have to work a bit harder on my own SOMA assignment of odds attempts.  

In other words, all of the events between November 4 and December 16 (including the passage of critical^tm time), only got me to move up 1% in my own SOMA assignment of odds for the BTC price peak of this cycle to come in or after the 3rd quarter of 2022.. - causing me to contemplate whether my own thinking about BTC cycle dynamics and the influence of four-year fractal dynamics could well be a wee bit too rigid for my own good?  perhaps?  perhaps?

[serveria.com]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

[Biodom]

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

means it needs repairs every day that cost more than book value of the vehicle? ive owned winter beater vehicles like that. i didnt even bother changing the oil on many of my cars because i knew it would fall apart way before the engine would die. and i was pretty surprised how long some engines lasted on sludge (225 cid slant six, damn things are almost unkillable. i had a few)

When I just started driving, I bought an old car from a guy for $300, lol. He just wanted to get rid of it.
I drove it for a year, then got into a minor accident and after that the car started using one jug of oil per grocery trip a few miles away.
Needless to say that I had to sent it out to the junkyard, but felt bad about it...of course, it was the first that I actually owned.
Memories...

[AlcoHoDL]

OK... Fair enough regarding the unprobablistic way of characterizing your own framing of the matter, but still when we talk about a variety of possible unprobablistic scenarios it's like just throwing anything out there, and should we really be preparing our minds in those kinds of ways, even if our portfolio preparations might not match.

Or wouldn't it be true that your mind may well end up influencing your financial preparations?

Just does not sound healthy to me.. and surely, to go from the attempts to assert less probable scenarios into the assertion of way out there scenarios.

In other words, it seems way more reasonable to me to consider that if our most-likely scenario would have been to have been having the peaking out of the BTC price in this quarter, but if it does not happen, then we may well go to the 1st quarter of 2022 or the second quarter or the third quarter, and so it hardly makes any sense to skip those more likely scenarios of having some kind of delayed peak rather than completely snapping out of the matter and go along with the fact that "everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market."   Since when did it matter that everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market.  I am sure the same was true in 2013 with the silk road baloney and then all of a sudden. BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.  similarly with the various fork wars in 2017 and the various tragedies and Armageddons.. that was not exactly smooth, and then BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.

I just don't buy it.... yeah of course, you are even conceding that we might not have any kind of extended draw down, but why do we even need anything like that to take place?  We had 56% and we had 39%.. so why would there be any kind of need for more, even if everyone is thinking that we might need more... blah blah blah.

I am not attached to any kind of have to happen sort of blow off top is coming, but there aren't really any meaningful and significants\ signs that it is not, except for some bit of delay and a few pull backs along the way.. sure the pull backs do not look exactly like earlier pull backs, but so what?  They don't need to look exactly the same.  They are still in the same ballpark as similar enough to earlier kinds of periods of pullbacks, and all we really have so far is delay..

Sure, I will admit that throughout almost the whole of 2018, until that November collapse, I did hang onto the idea that there could be a 2013-like double top, so in that sense I was wrong about the "could be" and/or that the 2017 bull run had actually ended in December 2017.. but still even that was another more than 6x price increase (from the august/september foundation) that had already been a more than 10x increase from our $250-ish 2015 starting point.

So even if we take $4,200 for our 2019 starting point and we get a bit more than 2x to get us to the $10k September 2020 starting point, we ONLY have a 7x increase and some pretty decent sized corrections along the way to say the 56% from May/June/July and our current 39% one that has not yet been resolved regarding whether it is over.. I don't buy that those lame-ass whimpy theories are very likely to play out.. even if they surely are in the cards so I am not saying that the whimpy-ass theories are not possible.. but I am saying:  I don't buy it.. I don't buy it... .. because it just seems to be hanging onto negative scenarios for the mere sake of it.. when things are still looking pretty damned good in terms of a set up for another exponential top.. I mean one of the great things about exponential tops remains the fact that shorts keep forming to believe that it is over.. at $5k then at $8k then at $10k and so on and so on... and sure you can say that we already had that in the ride up to $65k (the first time around) and our second visit to $69k. .but I am not going to buy it.. not yet.. I am not going to appreciate that you are describing any kind of likely scenario.. even if it ends up happening.. I will say that you had merely been lucky with that nonsense whimpy ass description that bitcoin was going to be lame through 2022... and wait til 2023..

Call me a bulltard if you like (and I don't even think that I am really that stuck on bullish ideations), but the nothing is gonna happen until 2023 outlook makes wwwwweeeeeee little sense to me.

What i tried to say is that China and eastern markets were holding, mining and trading big amounts of bitcoin, in relation to other countries. These are just exiting, or have exited already under the pressure of the chinese government's ban. We're now somewhere near the bottom of this exit, imho. Hashrate has recovered globally, supply is sort of fixed, exchange illiquidity rising is a fact. The amounts of fiat to be injected to go over the 2021 top is substantial, even more so because many took their chance accumulating while the knifes (china #1 mid 2021, china #2 recently) were falling. Fresh money will come in when the bottom signal is clear. But it will take time to shift the needed amount of dollars from other markets or stores of value to Bitcoin.
I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

I like your analysis, thanks. I also firmly believe 2022 will be a good year for Bitcoin, certainly not like 2018/19. I believe this time things are different from the previous Halving, there are bigger players involved, there is wider exposure, there's an approved ETF, countries using BTC as official currency. Things are looking up. But I don't want to rush things, let it come as and when it may, but it will. It's a when, not an if. The main things for me are 1. to own corn (most of us do, those who don't should buy ASAP, as it's currently dirt cheap but not for long), 2. to HoDL it, 3. to avoid mindrust events, 4. to expect and be prepared for up as well as down, 5. to think/plan long-term, as in 5+ years from now.

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

[Biodom]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

[serveria.com]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

Well I'm not a trader or a TA person I'm not sure if it exists or not (well it does in theory but I'm not sure about RL) I just used this term to make it clear there's going to be a third top (wave) going considerably higher than 2 previous ones. If you're good at TA you can come up with a correct term for that. 

[OutOfMemory]

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

 

I was aware that i have to describe it in a way which should not present any clues about the absolute size.
And it seems to work  

On the "fish" scale i'm pretty low. But it's "better than getting a brick to the head", as some would say in my culture, means it could always be worse
  

So the stash is more like a stashy  

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins.  

"The vast majority of my stash" could catch on as a very apt way of going forward with some of these descriptive matters.

Ok... on a personal level, you may well know that when I refer to "the vast majority of my own personal stash," recently, I had admitting to having more than 0.63 BTC, so one might speculate that the "vast majority of my stash" would be more than 75%.. which would be more than 0.4725 BTC, and maybe we can even refer to that as being more than half of a BTC...

 I can already see that our days are likely to be numbered in terms of even these kinds of references to whole BTC.. because holy shit, if I am saying the vast majority of my BTC, you may well identify my stash size to be of a size that is becoming less and less attainable by normies to even get to that quantity of BTC... if you are starting out, do you have $25k.. Is it beyond your budget?  Yeah for sure.  You have to start with getting up to $5k invested and then $10k invested and then how many BTC does that get you, and in the future.. where might we be going with our references?

Are we (royal of course) going to be able to hang onto a sufficient quantity of those BTC (or should I start saying vast majority of my stash happens to be more than 50 million satoshis?)..  Am I telling you too much?

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

 

I was aware that i have to describe it in a way which should not present any clues about the absolute size.
And it seems to work  

Can I take it back?  .. yeah.. having more than 0.63 BTC is 3x the size that many newbies can start to accumulate.. and a year or two or 4 or 10 am I still going to have it?

Remember  a couple of years ago.. even the dude had captured live footage of a bunch of his drama, with various angles on the boat and all of that.. I mean, it's not implausible that shit happens... and it does happen.. does not even take a big screw up just a bit of gambling or some weak moments and poof.

On the "fish" scale i'm pretty low. But it's "better than getting a brick to the head", as some would say in my culture, means it could always be worse
  

So the stash is more like a stashy  

I am not sure whether the descriptor "stashy" is going to catch on.. to me, it comes off a bit on the side of evasive... which may work out ok for some peeps.... but you are not likely to find me using that one.. unless I first see it a lot then maybe after a while of repetition for me it will start to sound better than it currently does..

[savetherainforest]

It sucks that anti-vaxxers's choice is effecting (sic) everyone around them and not just themselves

Dude. Holy fucking shit... Stahp. Plz.

He is funny.

I will chant with my huligan brothers in front of his house: "VAXX IST DEATH!... VAXX IST PLAGUE!!! ... VAXX IST NAZZI EMBODIMENT !!!" ... W000000000000!!! CHUG! CHUG! CHUG! CHUG! ON YOUR VAXX INOCULATED SPERM !!! CHUGGGGGG!!!

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins.  

"The vast majority of my stash" could catch on as a very apt way of going forward with some of these descriptive matters.

Ok... on a personal level, you may well know that when I refer to "the vast majority of my own personal stash," recently, I had admitting to having more than 0.63 BTC, so one might speculate that the "vast majority of my stash" would be more than 75%.. which would be more than 0.4725 BTC, and maybe we can even refer to that as being more than half of a BTC...

 I can already see that our days are likely to be numbered in terms of even these kinds of references to whole BTC.. because holy shit, if I am saying the vast majority of my BTC, you may well identify my stash size to be of a size that is becoming less and less attainable by normies to even get to that quantity of BTC... if you are starting out, do you have $25k.. Is it beyond your budget?  Yeah for sure.  You have to start with getting up to $5k invested and then $10k invested and then how many BTC does that get you, and in the future.. where might we be going with our references?

Are we (royal of course) going to be able to hang onto a sufficient quantity of those BTC (or should I start saying vast majority of my stash happens to be more than 50 million satoshis?)..  Am I telling you too much?

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

 

I was aware that i have to describe it in a way which should not present any clues about the absolute size.
And it seems to work  

Can I take it back?  .. yeah.. having more than 0.63 BTC is 3x the size that many newbies can start to accumulate.. and a year or two or 4 or 10 am I still going to have it?

Remember  a couple of years ago.. even the dude had captured live footage of a bunch of his drama, with various angles on the boat and all of that.. I mean, it's not implausible that shit happens... and it does happen.. does not even take a big screw up just a bit of gambling or some weak moments and poof.

On the "fish" scale i'm pretty low. But it's "better than getting a brick to the head", as some would say in my culture, means it could always be worse
  

So the stash is more like a stashy  

I am not sure whether the descriptor "stashy" is going to catch on.. to me, it comes off a bit on the side of evasive... which may work out ok for some peeps.... but you are not likely to find me using that one.. unless I first see it a lot then maybe after a while of repetition for me it will start to sound better than it currently does..

It could become too much info If a satoshi become 10 cents you claim to having more than 5 million in fiat.
 
I can say I have under 100,000 usd in GPUS and Asics and Coins. Which is safer than saying how many pieces of gear and exactly how much coin I have.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

[Biodom]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

Well I'm not a trader or a TA person I'm not sure if it exists or not (well it does in theory but I'm not sure about RL) I just used this term to make it clear there's going to be a third top (wave) going considerably higher than 2 previous ones. If you're good at TA you can come up with a correct term for that.  

It is the correct term, but unicorn is also a correct term. I was simply saying that it almost never happens.
IMHO, people are still counting on the swoosh back up in bitcoin, but we might have a flat before this.

BTW, TA may rarely predict something, it is almost always post factum.
However, the same could be said about the fundamental analysis, which often misses something "fundamental' and the results are skewed.
Tons of people were "fundamentally" bearish on Amazon from 2000 to 2015, but they were wrong because market anticipated large current earnings and almost unshakable market position of that company. Market was using advanced algebra when some or even most analysts were following simple arithmetic.

[suchmoon]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

Used GTX 1080 for $400-500 (still overpriced but "only" by 100% or so) plays all games that I can throw at it. The whole GPU shitshow was already going off the rails before this "shortage" and I refuse to participate in it. (other than repairing blown mosfets and reselling because that's just business)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

Used GTX 1080 for $400-500 (still overpriced but "only" by 100% or so) plays all games that I can throw at it. The whole GPU shitshow was already going off the rails before this "shortage" and I refuse to participate in it. (other than repairing blown mosfets and reselling because that's just business)

I sold 2 old RX-580's for $500 apiece a couple months ago just because its retarded.

[cAPSLOCK]

It seems many people are fairly bearish right now.

I pulled a block of coins I had loaded up on the exchange back into my own custody the other day.

No freaking way I'm selling in this messy volatility.

Doing whatever small things I can do to help contribute to supply shock on the exchanges.

As much as Trace Meyer turned out to be a douchebag with his whole "Buy my shitcoin on TradeOgre" misstep the whole "Proof of keys" idea was a really good one.

It suffered from two issues.

1.  It had a stupid name.  The name only appealed to people who already held all their own coins.
2.  It ignores human nature.  There are several reasons why humans don't want to hold their own keys... and they really never will.

But the idea was genius.  If we all held or own coins it would absolutely change the reality of the markets instantly.  But it's akin to going into that kind of heroin treatment where they put you in a coma and shoot you chock full of opioid antagonists.  It's the express lane to getting off the teat.  But you still have to want it to do it.

But people will do Bitcoin the way they have always done money.  They will have a third party look over their horde.

Anyway, I thank you for taking your coins off.  I know you generally hold your coins, but every little bit helps!

(Also, seriously...  what Meyer just full of it?  He always talked about buying BTC at $0.25.  His whole scam reeked of him needing to bolster his stack... I wonder if he was really mostly talk.) 

[Richy_T]

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

Quality of life. Anyone who hasn't fully owned their own house (property taxes notwithstanding), it's quite nice. Fancy cars though? I would also consider waiting for a bit higher BTC prices before buying a house that much but then again, every time I look at house prices, they are higher than what I'm expecting.

[Richy_T]

Cerner's financials say that their Total Debt to Equity ratio (FY) (%) = 29.81.

Which means that out of that $28.3B equity valuation, they have $8.3B in total debt outstanding. If you believe the valuation estimate, that's still nearly a third of the company that is all debt! And over the past 4 years, their accumulating debt had been growing at a much faster rates than their profits. Which means they were on track to eventually going belly up.

It's possible Oracle wants key technologies or even employees. I agree that there's way too much money sloshing around though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation