Observing $51,057 & hopeful of a continuation of the bull run. I know I sold 25% (after so many years hodling) but nothing would make me happier than seeing us break out to the upside & see new ath’s in 2022. I feel like we’re at a bit of a crossroads at the moment. As JJG says, this feels like no mans land. We’re either going to pump massively or the bull run is over & we go below $30,000.
I’m well prepared for either direction but much prefer up. I just don’t think we’re going to consolidate in this current price range for long. It’ll be a volatile move in either direction soon.
I don't know we kind of went sideways most of 2021 feb 18 2021 we first topped 51k and dec 27 2021 just about 51k
I feel covid-19 stretched the cycle and made it weird.
the s2f guy should claim this for twisting his model out of shape.
I doubt that it is very healthy to be considering that macro-events should attempt to be co-integrated into bitcoin's price dynamics - even though I understand and appreciate that a lot of people want to make those kinds of correlations to some of our macro-events. Sure in the short term, bitcoin is going to have all kinds of small information pieces in which any of us could identify signs of correlation - but if we zoom the fuck out a wee bit, it should become obviously more difficult to make such correlation assertions.
In other words.. bitcoin likely gives few fucks about these various short-term events.. even though on a long term scale, we can likely appreciate that on the margins there has been some possible acceleration of the bitcoin adoption ideas which largely would put pressures on bitcoin's price to the upside rather than keeping it down.
In other words, the so many clown world policies and activities around various reactions to the virus and even the ongoing horey-sheit contradictions that have been becoming more and more apparent, even to a lot of us who had been more than willing to give some benefits of the doubt to the actual reality of the virus, but so much of the impacts of the virus has seemed to have turned into quasi-purposeful manipulations rather than a bunch of incompetents in various governments around the world... Anyhow, my part of my point was supposed to be that even if there might seem to be some downward price pressures on bitcoin (or delays in the cycle as you refer to this, philip), I doubt that the actual bitcoin price dynamics evidence clearly supports that king daddy had been delayed based on some baloney macro matters going on in clown world.
Furthermore, just to attempt to bolster the point that I already made, do you even remember when some of the phoney baloney matters in regards to the virus and policy and financial reactions began? Bitcoin had broken above $10k and then was correcting around mid-$7ks in early 2020 - including March 2020, when it's prices were cut in half (almost) in a very short period of time.. so yeah, we had a correction down to $3,850.. that lasted nearly two weeks in the $4k to $6k arena before gravitating back up to $10k-ish in August/September, and whether we want to consider our BTC price run starting from that March 2020 related liquidation event or even if we start our BTC price run assessment from $10k-ish (which is what I favor doing), we still got a fucking 7x price appreciation out of the period from September 2020 to present - even if we are seeming to be currently bouncing between a 4x and 6x price appreciation range in recent months...and maybe for some time into the future.. perhaps? perhaps?
I am just having some difficulties appreciating even how a somewhat conservative assessment of a 4x to 6x price appreciation in bitcoin in the past year and a half of so can be even remotely considered as anything close to correlation to clown-world or even to the corona virus matters or however you want to frame this. Do what you like, but it just seems that the evidence is quite lacking and even faulting in terms of having way more fantasy-landia spin rather than actual bitcoin assessment facts.
and last 23 days of this month are between 47k and 51k
So sideways looks like the theme. @ JJG I know
BTC does not go sideways. Until it does
Got a give you at least some credit for your attempt at a fantasy-landia reframing of reality... Maybe an "E" for effort?
Yes.. sometimes we get caught in sideways for a while.. and sometimes we have some difficulties knowing how long such sideways is going to last, but if you are projecting continued sideways (or assigning high probabilities to sideways) based on the fact that sideways has already happened then you may be getting caught in some false senses of lull...
For sure, if we want to attempt to get specific in our projections, whether we are referring to UP, DOWN or sideways, we should be attempting to also put some kind of timeline on those kinds of projections - in order to have some kind of actual semblance of utility, no?
So for example one thing would be to proclaim sideways through January and another thing would be to proclaim sideways through the whole first quarter of 2022 or even into some specific date that lands in the second quarter of 2022..
Differing probabilities are going to be assigned based on what timeline you choose. I don't necessarily want to flesh out this idea too much philip because you are the one that proclaimed sideways without exactly assigning any kind of date nor assigning any kind of date range for your projection, but let's just take a claim that projects continued sideways through January 2022..and you pick the price and you pick the date.. but in this case, I will pick the price and date, since I am the one giving the example.
So just like in my last response to dragonvslinux, I am suggesting that I give few shits unless we start getting close to what I consider to be our current range, which is $42k to $62k.. so in that regard, I might say that sideways within that chosen range has decently high probabilities. So within the price range of $42k to $62k, maybe I would proclaim down/sideways/up accordingly: 30/32/38... I am kind of spontaneously throwing these numbers out there.. and maybe I might need to think about them a bit more if I want to tweak them or not for that range and that time period... but anyhow you do see that I have higher assignments of probabilities to up and sideways than to down, so I am not completely opposed to the idea of sideways, but for sure any such claim is going to depend upon what range you choose, and if you choose a very narrow range or a very long period of time, then for sure you are more likely going to have to pick a smaller assignment of probabilities for sideways, no? especially with bitcoin, no?
So a lot of times, when I feel that I have to chime in and say that bitcoin no does not work like that, especially when it comes to sideways, it seems that sometimes people are spouting out way too high of likelihood that they assign to sideways within too narrow of a range and for too long.. even though such sideways might end up happening within the framework that they had chosen, but sure anything can happen, and the mere fact that it had happened would likely not really give much if anything to credence that they actually knew enough about the future to have had made their prediction come true (so it ends up being luck), even when more frequently the thing that happens is that people want to strive for too much of a sorcerer status.. and sure they might end up coming out as correct within their prediction.. but geez.
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