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magicmexican
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April 01, 2014, 09:27:29 AM |
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confirmed going to 0$, short now and rebuy at -10$
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JorgeStolfi
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April 01, 2014, 09:29:24 AM |
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Idle exercise:
The Market now assigns some probability P to the bank blockade rumor being true.
If the rumor is false, the price should go up again to the pre-rumor level, ~580 USD (Bitstamp).
If the rumor is true, the price should go down to some value X, less than 480.
The current price should be the Market's expected price in the near future (even if the Market is not conscious of these computations, and plays it "by ear"). That is,
P*X + (1-P)*580 = 480 <==>
P*(580 - X) = 580-480 = 100 <==>
P = 100/(580-X) <==>
Since X < 480, we have P < 100/(580 - 480) = 1, not informative.
Since X > 0, we have P > 100/580 = 0.17.
Therefore the Market thinks that there is at least 17% probability that the bank block is true.
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strawbs
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 875
Merit: 1362
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April 01, 2014, 09:29:30 AM |
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Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.
... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
this is not at all how technical analysis works... Technical analysis is not at all how bitcoin works... |
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Zule
Member
Offline
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
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April 01, 2014, 09:29:42 AM |
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we will go down to 150$ as planned.
People need to realitycheck their positions, while its not too late. |
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TERA
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April 01, 2014, 09:31:54 AM |
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Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.
... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
this is not at all how technical analysis works... Technical analysis is not at all how bitcoin works... People say bitcoin doesn't follow TA but bitcoin actually follows TA more than any other asset, due to the predictable fixed supply and relatively static fundamentals. |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 01, 2014, 09:32:24 AM |
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Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.
... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
this is not at all how technical analysis works... actually my point was that this analysis is highly ambiguous. |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 01, 2014, 09:33:37 AM |
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confirmed going to 0$, short now and rebuy at -10$
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JorgeStolfi
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April 01, 2014, 09:34:33 AM |
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Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?
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strawbs
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 875
Merit: 1362
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April 01, 2014, 09:35:24 AM |
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Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.
... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
this is not at all how technical analysis works... Technical analysis is not at all how bitcoin works... People say bitcoin doesn't follow TA but bitcoin actually follows TA more than any other asset, due to the predictable fixed supply and relatively static fundamentals. Is that an April fool's joke? |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 01, 2014, 09:36:28 AM |
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Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?
well we had some real news just yesterday to confirm third party bans. It's old news, ask Risto. There was a lil' flash panic, and then the bulls took over. No more noobs to sell! |
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TERA
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April 01, 2014, 09:37:00 AM |
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Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?
When money flow from china/banks stop, it will cause changes in supply and demand which TA is excellent at detecting. |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 01, 2014, 09:38:34 AM |
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Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?
When money flow from china/banks stop, it will cause changes in supply and demand which TA is excellent at detecting. but that has not in fact happened yet. lets talk on the 15th April. |
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spooderman
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1047
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April 01, 2014, 09:39:20 AM |
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I hope today we make it past 520 (blaze it)
A happy April if so!
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fonzie
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April 01, 2014, 09:40:47 AM |
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BTC >500$ in 2014 RxIxP
I am Fonzie and i can cofirm!
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Zule
Member
Offline
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
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April 01, 2014, 09:42:09 AM |
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BTC >500$ in 2014 RxIxP
I am Fonzie and i can cofirm!
It was >500 20 min ago  |
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billyjoeallen
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
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April 01, 2014, 09:42:17 AM |
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Unlike other corrections, we were hit with a double whammy this time: Gox and China. $450 is almost certainly going to be retested. There wasn't enough volume for that to have been likely the last of the selling. I'm a bull and I'm leveraged long, but be realistic. You guys will get another shot at cheap (oh, excuse the fuck out of me, TERA) relatively lower-priced coinz.
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bangersdad
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April 01, 2014, 09:44:27 AM |
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People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!
What was the gameplan? I missed it. buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance. So if this is the "gameplan" then surely many others would have the same belief as you - so then why are not we seeing a huge upsurge in buys? The possible answers can only be: a) you are so smart that your the only one that has perceived the "gameplan" b) you are wrong. |
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fonzie
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April 01, 2014, 09:44:48 AM |
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BTC >500$ in 2014 RxIxP
I am Fonzie and i can cofirm!
It was >500 20 min ago Today is the last day you will see BTC >500$ this year. BTW Huobi is actually 30$ below Stamp. I hope you all put new shorts in >500$. |
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Buffer Overflow
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1023
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April 01, 2014, 09:45:31 AM |
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Today is the last day you will see BTC >500$ this year.
What about next year? |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 01, 2014, 09:46:56 AM |
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People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!
What was the gameplan? I missed it. buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance. So if this is the "gameplan" then surely many others would have the same belief as you - so then why are not we seeing a huge upsurge in buys? The possible answers can only be: a) you are so smart that your the only one that has perceived the "gameplan" b) you are wrong. plenty more answers, including you are wrong. many analysts here that I know shared this view 4 month ago. they are mostly short now, very vulnerable. |
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