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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26908624 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Gachapin
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November 16, 2022, 05:11:19 AM

hey merit beggars


it's ridiculously obvious that you don't care about the WO at all and just come here to collect hand-outs from sig campaigns...


please (with cherry on top) fuck the fuck off and post your shit in some CRypTo thread...
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November 16, 2022, 06:38:59 AM
Last edit: November 16, 2022, 06:55:35 AM by JayJuanGee

[...]But maybe you are wrong. and it grows well over 500k btw it would need to be over 500k to be successful in 2060
Whatever doesn't kill you...

Bitcoin will surpass $500k. You will be alive and well to witness it being worth more than $1M.

Ok.. I hate to predict the future with too many specifics.. but that's funny.

...but chances are yes, that we will make $1 million in one two or three cycles... give or take a couple of cycles.... so if Philip can make it to 80.. his odds are pretty good..

Hopefully he is eating good food, and not those beyond meat burgers (and Oreo cookies) that SBF was eating... SBF would not know a steak if it slapped him in his chubby little face.

Continue buying every month, you'll be just fine reaching youre goal if you aim for 2024 halving mega pump.
Might keep buying until the halving as I am confident that we will see a recovery by then or better the mega pump as you call it. I think we should be over most of the problems that have occurred this year by late 2023 setting up the bull run in 2024. That is my positive outlook any way and that is more wishful thinking then being backed by logic. Good to see someone else thinks the same way to Smiley

Hopefully you are keeping the overwhelming majority (if not all of it) of your BTC purchase within some forms of self-custody, and not on exchanges.  Let's say something like 90% in self-custody, and no more than 10% with any third-parties of exchanges or similar.

It is great that your wife is understanding of the situation, and you did buy around 50% lower than the top, which surely seemed to have had been a reasonable entry point - even if you might have employed lump sum of an amount that might have been more than you were willing to lose - which does not tend to be the greatest of practices, even though sometimes the passage of time will allow for such errors to be mitigated.

Michael Saylor's Company (MSTR) has an average entry price that is right around $30k, and the country of El Salvador might have an average entry price that is a bit higher than yours... So you are in company of other seemingly intelligent bitcoin bulls who are not really shying away from their investment and even making small purchases here and there.  I would not be surprised to see Saylor make another purchase at some point, since I believe that he still has a pretty decent MSTR equity credit line that he has not yet used.. it may still be in the neighborhood of $200 million-ish..

If bitcoin was a gift (or a test?) from some friendly civilization, it seems that we are failing.
A glorious bitcoin got diluted by thousands of garbage coins, with no appreciation during the last 5 years.

NOT!!!!

You are mischaracterizing by selectively picking your facts to paint an inaccurate picture.


It's just a fact, but if you want to soothe yourself, then count from Dec 2018 and be happy.

It's not about feeling better, but sure picking that date/price gives a different picture than your 5 years of selective facts that you are trying to focus upon as if it were somehow representative of your negative nancy baloney..


I guess, human folly spoiled it in the interim, imho.

Bitcoin is not spoiled.

It's doing quite well, if you had not noticed.

Have you been paying attention, or you just want to dwell and mope about some selective facts.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.. I know that you are working to get your addiional 0.2 BTC, so you are not 100% whimpy.. only 78.62%  whimpy, or something in that ballpark of whimpy-whininess..

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Nohomo.

I mean, we seem to be unable to grow a robust financial system around bitcoin and it is just an observation that seems to be based on current facts.

It's broken?  Bitcoin is broken?

You expect to go from zero to world currency in a matter of 13 to 20 years without a battle?

Get real Biodom!

The ecosystem (you can argue that bitcoin wasn't a part of it, but it is not a very solid argument) is now completely decimated-I mean tradfi companies involved in various yield schemes. Poof, gone.

That's true.  Some pretty rich fucks got liquidated in this round - including some people (and institutions) that some of us might have liked.

"I wished war did not have casualties."  

"I wished innocent folks would not be injured or liquidated in war."

Yes.  I am not trying to be flippant about it, and I am mostly saddened by the damages rather than gleeful.

Yet, if we live in the real world, don't we have to be able to sustain ourselves in spite of the casualties going on around us, and maybe even some of us might have suffered some damage in this round too, no?

Additionally, it seems that some were able to portray to their customers that their bitcoin was real when it wasn't (no bitcoin assets, just bitcoin liabilities).
I am not sure how it was accomplished.

I am amazed too..   I think that we are still trying to figure some of this out.. It was surely a strange set of relationships... and some vary innovative and seemingly strong looking house of cards that they had built in the last 3.5 years (they have not been around very long, but they sure did build their house of cards fast)

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You have to modify your goals then, and I suppose you will have more difficulties getting to $200 million with your 20 BTC..

I don't have enough info to figure out a better strategy than what you had previously stated based on your circumstances.. ..except maybe you need more BTC accumulated in a DCA strategy, especially if you are going to be selling more sooner.. rather than merely HODLing until we reach $10 million.

I might say, "hey Biodom, we might be able to reach $10 million this cycle or maybe within 2-4 cycles beyond that"

and then you respond:

"I cannot take my chances.  I am not that confident that $10 million is even possible, especially in that timeline or even with an additional cycle or two."

I then ask you:

"Well, do you still think that $10 million is possible even if it has lower odds than you previously thought and it could take longer than you previously thought?"

I think that your answer is going to be "yes, it is still possible" even though your current state of negative nancy-ism is contributing towards your making too many emotionally-laden outbursts

The punchline still might be considering how much we are going to change our investment approach based on negative facts that are currently in front of us?

Of course, my making fun of your position partly shows that I consider that the current negative facts in front of us do not really change bitcoins trajectory or investment thesis as much as you seem to be making it out to be.. and sure, are we going to have to shift he curve down on the stock to flow model, yeah sure, but still bitcoin still has a pretty damned strong investment thesis, even if there have been shenanigans and likely will continue to be shenanigans around it, including some difficulties of building around bitcoin when some of the BIG money is getting scared off and wiped out in the process.

BTW, I think Cathy Wood is right and Fed is making a significant policy error.
By rising rates too fast, they are sowing the seeds of another Great Depression.

Yeah but, so what?

What are we going to do about it?

We have to prepare ourselves, even if the Fed (and others) does dumb things and/or bad policy things or whatever might potentially be their evil agenda.

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.\
You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.
Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Huh?

Maybe you should consider a strategy that is somewhat closer to mine, in order that you lessen the chances that you get so worked up so easily?

just saying... .hahahahahaha
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November 16, 2022, 07:01:16 AM


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November 16, 2022, 07:59:15 AM

[edited out]
Its easy to talk about what to sell but anyone over 50 years old with 100+ coins needs to think hard about what to do. Especially if they missed the 69k number and did not hedge some at that point..

Over 50 YO and more than 100 coins is an issue?

Who would have thunk?

What about the other individual factors such as cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and our abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments?

There is something special about 100 coins and over 50 YO?  It sounds like a good thing to have that many coins.. and seemingly that many options.  Hopefully, the 50 or over guy has other assets besides just 100 coins... but hey, if that were the ONLY asset that a guy had at 50 YO, he probably would not be in a bad place, relatively speaking.

Most people over 50 will be hard pressed to add 100 coins to their stash as it is 1.7 million at the moment.

Why do they need to add any coins?  I would say that 100 coins is reaching pretty damned close to (if not already at) fuck you status, even accounting for an age of 50 in which maybe a person might live a few years or maybe even live another 50 years if genetically lucky to live until 100 YO.

It seems to me that a person who is at 50 YO or more with 100 BTC (and maybe if such person also did not have any other resources, which is a pretty BIG assumption, could already feel pretty comfortable to start drawing from 100 BTC at 4% per year and really not have to worry too much for the rest of his life... so what is the supposed BIG urgency that you are trying to paint philip?

I would think that the guy at 50 or over, might need to consider more if he has accumulated enough, and if he is close to zero coins at 50YO, he might be panicking that he does not have enough BTC, but even if the 50 YO guy had 20 to 50 BTC, he might be close to being able to make a plan towards working at getting to fU status.. maybe accumulate more, and even if at the upper end of that 20-50 arena, he might be feeling pretty damned close to having entry-level fuck you status in view, even though at current BTC prices he is less than half way there (assuming an entry-level fuck you status of $2 million). 

Since you (philip) value dollars so much more than you value bitcoin, you seem to be unable to appreciate the power of having a decent amount of your wealth in bitcoin.   

Your framework and presumptions seem quite "off" (and maybe the opposite) because all you seem to be worried about is cashing out of your BTC in order to stack dollars (aren't those dollars shitcoins? Last I checked, I did not have a whole hell of a lot of confidence to keep very much value in dollars, except maybe what I might want to spend in the next 6 to 24 months. perhaps if I were going to keep that much in dollars?)

Also If you do have 100 coins and they cost you 4k each selling off 5 is not a hard choice.

Why would anyone be anxious to sell BTC at the low of a correction, even if the BTC price might go lower?  Had you not noticed that we are at historical lows?  Either a guy with 100 BTC should be HODLing, buying a bit more or maybe if selling, only selling as little as he must.. but otherwise this does not seem to be a selling time.. not for folks who seem to have some pretty decent ideas regarding what bitcoin is, what its present and potential future value is, too.


but if you have 15 coins and they cost you 8k each selling off 5 is a hard choice.

I doubt there is a worse dilemma based on having fewer coins.. except perhaps the fewer coins that you have, then the more coins that you might want to be accumulating at these prices - within the context of your own circumstances, such as the ones I listed above.

I am not in either spot I dumped most of my holdings this year.

Sank too much into the solar panels and the gear.

Well.. that seems like a reason to be buying rather than telling people to sell just because you did... so what that you already sold most if not all of your BTC...

purportedly you accounted for your situation when making your decision to sell, but seems to me that you continue to make the same mistake in the last 11.5 years of not having enough BTC.. so you do not seem to be much of a good source for anyone who is considering how to use BTC to prepare themselves for their future, whether that is 4-10 years or longer.

What a well timed coincidence with the FTX implosion:

    The Federal Reserve of New York and a group of private banking firms launched a 12-week digital dollar pilot project.
    The project is titled “the regulated liability network,” and it will conduct a test on usage of digital dollar tokens by banks.
    The stablecoin market has stabilized once again, Fitch Ratings announced return of confidence to larger coins like Tether (USDT).

Might be a good thing to attack (for hackers).. perhaps?  Testing means opening it up for attacks, no? #asking for a friend.


...I wouldn't believe any stuff coming from these cRYptO channels.  Many of them are pretend rich...


Fuck crypto. 

That's what I say (nearly every day, but I noticed that sometimes I will substitute "shtitoins" for "crypto" in my expressionenings of my feelings)
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November 16, 2022, 09:29:06 AM

UK inflation 11.1%
 Shocked

Surprised they can keep official figures that low to be honest.
"Households are paying 88.9% more for gas and electricity than a year ago."  Shocked Shocked Shocked

Maybe we also need a successful wrecking ball "inflation reduction act" filled with mandatory green rules, and forgive student debt, or at least promise to do that just before an election. 10% for the big guy. Or should that be 11%.
 Roll Eyes
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November 16, 2022, 09:46:14 AM
Last edit: November 16, 2022, 09:58:41 AM by dragonvslinux
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.


You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Personally I can understand this if it's age-based reasoning. Unless your intent is to pass your Bitcoin down to your children or likewise than I can understand wanting to spend some of your Bitcoin in your older age. Assuming you're of an older age that is. I'm also aware of your general target that's similar to mine around $50K, which doesn't seem unreasonable next year and would likely be a good selling opportunity imo.

The difference being for me would be selling a decent portion next year around $50K would be in order to wait for lower prices. A years worth of accumulation will likely lead to a years worth of distribution, during this period Bitcoin will likely return to relatively low prices. That said, if it takes until 2024 to reach $50K then I wouldn't be interested in selling, as there would have been enough consolidation.

13 years have passed, everyone got scars, but there is no "system", would you agree?
At this point, i am not sure if it would be possible as many were trying and so far nothing major had happened. Maybe soon  Cool.

I do somewhat agree, I think Bitcoin over past few years may have gotten ahead of itself based on it's valuation. In reality, a billion dollar asset should be a functioning popular system, as opposed to a theoretically popular one. Sure it's being used in hyper-inflationary driven countries, but this is far from "popular" adoption by any means, and it may take much longer than many of us think to reach this adoption.

I still think it's heading in the right direction, nothing has changed there, but we're still a long way away from it being adopted as a reserve asset or popular currency within stable economies.



And like it or not no one knows if LN network kills off mining or helps mining down the road.

Could be

BTC = big bond 100000 dollar note

LTC/DOGE  = smaller money.

Doge has solved the what happens if rewards vanish
Doge has ever decreasing inflation rate.

100% year 1
  10% year 11
    1% year 101

Just saying that we have an issue with btc that makes fear. rewards are next to nothing in 2060

Never understood your reasoning for LTC/DOGE personally, and I say this as an avid shitcoin speculator - when I consider the time to be right for it that is.

For starters, Litecoin has been in a downtrend against Bitcoin since 2013 after further peaks in summer 2017. 2021 altcoin season only further confirmed it's weakness, so I fail to see LTC's relevance anymore. Once Top 3, now Top 20. Note how it was outperforming Bitcoin as a cheaper-to-transact POW currency until SegWit. It's only been down hill from there, as there is no longer any genuine utility for LTC.

As for Doge, there are many similarities that I see. While it has outperformed Bitcoin since it's existence - and even overlooking it's Musk-driven meme-based bull run - it's currently the cheapest to transact POW currency in the Top 10. But the question is, for how long? To me the comparison to Litecoin is very relevant here, because like LTC once SegWit was implemented (first on Litecoin & Vertcoin iroinically), it became useless. So while it will likely continue to outperform Bitcoin in the near future due to it's advantage of cheap transactions, what happens when LN is further integrated and utilised?

The irony being that for things like VPN I use Doge, as it's cheaper. But if VPN services had LN integrated, I'd obviously use that instead. Just my theory anyway, let's see how it plays out.



Hopefully you are keeping the overwhelming majority (if not all of it) of your BTC purchase within some forms of self-custody, and not on exchanges.  Let's say something like 90% in self-custody, and no more than 10% with any third-parties of exchanges or similar.

Just wanted to add that the above is great advise. Also if you are trading bitcoin for shitcoins it can help force you into taking profits. For example last year having a 5% trading account on exchanges grew to 15%, so I was then obliged to cull it to 10% again in order to reduce risk. Avoiding the insanity of shitcoin self-custody, this naturally involved selling back to BTC in order to withdraw back to cold storage.

However it's worth noting that my 10% trading account is now only 1% due to recent events. Even though it was based on Binance (which I doubt will go bankrupt anytime soon) it doesn't seem worth the risk to hold more capital than necessary on exchanges at present. Mainly, I just wanted to be part of the withdrawing coins off exchanges party that's currently going on right now  Smiley
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November 16, 2022, 10:16:05 AM

Lately i'm thinking about DEX, came across some tweet mentioning THORchain, any bro got some experience with this?

IIRC it was hacked and then the devs ignored the hacker explaining how to fix it and then it got hacked again, so yeah go ahead and put funds on there. Cheesy

Thanks for the tip  Grin
But nah....

OFFTOPIC:

One of the worst captures till date. I'll spare the long story, but in the end the object was dimmed by very, very light fog, focus was off slightly, strong horizontal noise bands appeared out of nowhere, which i still have to research.

At least the stars are round and the halos are centered, so telescope repair was successful and polar alignment sufficiently precise Grin

Lads and Gents, IC 1805 a.k.a. Heart Nebula:





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November 16, 2022, 10:25:28 AM

Goodbye Mt Gox.

Goodbye Cryptsy.

Goodbye Bitcoin fork wannabes and scammers.

Goodbye Bitconnect.

Goodbye ICOs.

Goodbye NFTs.

Goodbye Terra Luna and UST.

Goodbye FTX.

Goodbye BlockFi.

... keep em' coming.

One by one, let's burn the whole shitcoin and DeFi scam markets to the fkn ground !

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

“I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.”




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November 16, 2022, 10:36:57 AM

What gives the government power is CBDC and what gives us our own power is BTC, everyone is striving for his own interest https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1592660438986412033?t=VuV93C4QoF510ovIOwX86g&s=19 this is what bitcoin gives in cryptocurrency.

Advise about FTX hack and bitcoin
https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1590305952070524930?t=2rl74OvrBMaYfIuEb22Y8A&s=19
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November 16, 2022, 11:55:54 AM

UK inflation 11.1%
 Shocked

Surprised they can keep official figures that low to be honest.
"Households are paying 88.9% more for gas and electricity than a year ago."  Shocked Shocked Shocked

Maybe we also need a successful wrecking ball "inflation reduction act" filled with mandatory green rules, and forgive student debt, or at least promise to do that just before an election. 10% for the big guy. Or should that be 11%.
 Roll Eyes

basically, keep the money printing going....
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November 16, 2022, 12:01:21 PM


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November 16, 2022, 12:10:33 PM

My bitcoin transaction on SEGWIT taking more than 20 minutes to complete with 60% fees overpay.  Roll Eyes
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November 16, 2022, 12:18:16 PM
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My bitcoin transaction on SEGWIT taking more than 20 minutes to complete with 60% fees overpay.  Roll Eyes

mempool is over 120mb for the last two days!.. my node is showing 250MB with 20,500 unconfirmed transaction... not getting confirmed for a while.. i have 2 pending transaction (1sat/vbyte)!..

and average confirm time today is about 70mins....

Use LN!
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November 16, 2022, 12:19:57 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1), strawbs (1), hisslyness (1)

My bitcoin transaction on SEGWIT taking more than 20 minutes to complete with 60% fees overpay.  Roll Eyes

mempool is over 120mb for the last two days!.. my node is showing 250MB with 20,500 unconfirmed transaction... not getting confirmed for a while.. i have 2 pending transaction (1sat/vbyte)!..

and average confirm time today is about 70mins....

Use LN!

Damn, so much traffic on the bitcoin highway this week.
I am transferring from Ledger to Ledger, not sure how LN works.

EDIT: Just realized, I am now a legendary member  Tongue
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November 16, 2022, 12:24:39 PM
Merited by ImThour (1)

My bitcoin transaction on SEGWIT taking more than 20 minutes to complete with 60% fees overpay.  Roll Eyes

mempool is over 120mb for the last two days!.. my node is showing 250MB with 20,500 unconfirmed transaction... not getting confirmed for a while.. i have 2 pending transaction (1sat/vbyte)!..

and average confirm time today is about 70mins....

Use LN!

Damn, so much traffic on the bitcoin highway this week.
I am transferring from Ledger to Ledger, not sure how LN works.

EDIT: Just realized, I am now a legendary member  Tongue

congrats on new status!... "Use LN" was a sly joke Smiley

EDIT: at times like this.. avoid sending on layer 1... i sent those pending transaction (Opened new LN Channels) 1 hours before the mempool started climbing.... last 3 days have been very slow on block confirmation.. could be miners shutting down rigs?...
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