Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[@ThisWeeksCoin]

Ìt might hit ~$500.

Doubt it will go above tho.

[darklight]

0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?

Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at that

All of them? With no new ones appearing?

Depends on why they go. If its regulation there might not be any way for others to appear

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.

Mervyn, let me clue you.  I am paid highly for financial analytics, and have been for almost a decade.  I am pretty sloppy here in the forum because I'm not putting my real name on it, and its nice to relax and talk smack now and then - I need the de-stress sometimes - but I do know something about what I'm saying.  

USD devaluation is one of the massive relative appreciation scenarios for BTC.  

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

The meltdown of the dollar would currently bring down all the currencies thats value is strongly tied to it, and that includes bitcoin.
If bitcoin would get it's value elsewhere, for instance a major wheat supplier would accept BTC by itself, then there could be a different story. But right now, we don't even have small online stores, that want to accept BTC by itself, without BitPay, meaning without the support of USD.

[oda.krell]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

[niothor]

0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?

Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at that

All of them? With no new ones appearing?

Depends on why they go. If its regulation there might not be any way for others to appear

All over the world? i give that a 0.01% chance

[keithers]

Woke up to a nice boost in prices for both btc and ltc

[solarflare]

Woke up to a nice boost in prices for both btc and ltc

Woke up, looked at the price and thought "fucking whales".

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

Ok, for the curious here are the impromptu survey results averaged over all 14 responses :

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100   5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200   9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300   20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400   55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500   89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750   79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000   72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250   63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000   52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000   43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000   31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000   23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000   10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000   5.54

So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.

As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.

[ChrisML]

The bottom was there, final.

Though, tommorow will be a special day. I sincerely hope things will go as I have planned. I bought a few more coins yesterday morning. I am 70% $400 range and 30% $700. I could SODL and make a little bit of profit, but shit, Yolo, right?

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

The bottom was there, final.

So...I can now be sure that we will never never ever visit 350$, right? 

[ErisDiscordia]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  )

[Hen0xyd]

Ok, for the curious here are the impromptu survey results averaged over all 14 responses :

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100   5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200   9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300   20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400   55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500   89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750   79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000   72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250   63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000   52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000   43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000   31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000   23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000   10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000   5.54

So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.

As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.

Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

[JorgeStolfi]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
 

[ChrisML]

The bottom was there, final.

So...I can now be sure that we will never never ever visit 350$, right? 

That's for you to decide. I decided that we have seen the bottom. I have always said this, and that people whom hope that the bottom will me much lower than that $350.. need help.

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

The only reason USD give bitcoin value is because people are not smart enough to just use BTC for payments and because we're working bottom up on the transfer of funds from consumers to suppliers.  had it been the other way around and suppliers were already on board and using BTC to fund their projects then bitcoin would give USD, CNY, RMB their value...

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

You my friend are fucking clueless...

[roslinpl]

Explanation

460

520 tomorrow morning with no problem

for now it is rising 10$ in ~3-4 hours.

[mmitech]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

The local unicredit Branch employees are Bitcoin bulls, I know few of them personally, but this doesn't represent the big picture of what Unicredit Bank as a corporate thinks about Bitcoin which is unknown for me...