Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum  

These slips get smaller and smaller.  Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago).  

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months.  I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February). 

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

[JayJuanGee]

Who is willing to call a bottom?

I'd say we going to at least 382.

Me thinks 400 and 380 wont put up much of a fight. The war is at 340, if that gets taken out say hello to 266.

Me thinks that you gonna get a fight all the way down to $400 - however, if you get past $400, then the next fight will be around $350 or $360.  I'm kind of guessing based on the recent fights from a few weeks ago.

[SheHadMANHands]

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum  

These slips get smaller and smaller.  Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago).  

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months.  I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February).  

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

Mid/Long term, this is cheap.  Who knows wtf will happen over the next week or two.. but I can hodl for year+, so that's irrelevant (beyond perhaps the emotional fatigue.. which we all can stomach).

[solex]

People's Bank of China ...   even the name sounds like FUD, which fucking "People"? commie fucks.

Yes, the "People's" bank means a bank operating for the rulers against the people, a weasel phrase just like "FCC’s Open Internet Rules" or the "Trans-Pacific Partnership" masking the intention to do the opposite action.

[JayJuanGee]

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum  

These slips get smaller and smaller.  Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago).  

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months.  I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February).  

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

Mid/Long term, this is cheap.  Who knows wtf will happen over the next week or two.. but I can hodl for year+, so that's irrelevant (beyond perhaps the emotional fatigue.. which we all can stomach).

YEP>>>>> ditto dat.

[p0peji]

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum  

These slips get smaller and smaller.  Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago).  

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months.  I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February).  

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

Mid/Long term, this is cheap.  Who knows wtf will happen over the next week or two.. but I can hodl for year+, so that's irrelevant (beyond perhaps the emotional fatigue.. which we all can stomach).

Why not wait for more definitive information that the trend has reversed before buying back in?

[billyjoeallen]

Who is willing to call a bottom?

I'd say we going to at least 382.

Me thinks 400 and 380 wont put up much of a fight. The war is at 340, if that gets taken out say hello to 266.

I agree with you IF China plays out as expected.

[SheHadMANHands]

Why not wait for more definitive information that the trend has reversed before buying back in?

If there was such "definitive information", wouldn't the smart money have already moved in at that point?  You can wait 2 months till we're back at $600 or whatever, if that's a clear indication to you, but then you've paid a cost for that information (opportunity cost), and already forfeited most of the profit.

I like to buy when people are shitting their pants, or "waiting for definitive information".  Best time imo.  Smallest "supply" of buyers willing to take that risk.  High risk, high reward.  

Cheers

[MinermanNC]

ok, all you analyst, where  is this going to land this time? lol I really thought we were through the worst of the China fears a few weeks ago..... I haven't been in here since, now with this drop I'm back looking for exspert" opinions. It is also beginning to take its toll on the alt coin markets which is usually where I spend most of my time

[JayJuanGee]

This downward trend (~6 month) is losing momentum  

These slips get smaller and smaller.  Thinking ~$340 was the bottom now (2 weeks ago).  

A LOT of us have been saying that for about two months.  I began saying that the downward trend is losing momentum at about $610 (around the beginning of February).  

Hopefully, you are correct this time, but I can see the possibility of downward BTC price trending for a few more months... .i'm not sure how far.. maybe mid-$300s..... I prefer some thing like that $300-ish NOT to happen.. but continued downward trending for a few more months certainly does seem possible.

Mid/Long term, this is cheap.  Who knows wtf will happen over the next week or two.. but I can hodl for year+, so that's irrelevant (beyond perhaps the emotional fatigue.. which we all can stomach).

Why not wait for more definitive information that the trend has reversed before buying back in?

Who said anything about "buying back in?"   The phrase, "buying back in" implies that a person sold.  I do NOT advocate selling, unless  you are really confident that you are going to be able to buy in at a lower price.  And with prices this low, it would be very risky to sell, if you have NOT already sold (mainly b/c of the large level of manipulation and the ability of prices to sky rocket and to reverse  at any time), but to each his/her own - if someone is selling and trying to buy back in at a lower price. 

I advocate buying more as the price goes down to attempt to buy as much as low as possible.  But, to each his own, regarding  that strategy, as well.

[SheHadMANHands]

Never sold, just stocking up at lows.

[TeeBone]

Who is willing to call a bottom?

I'd say we going to at least 382.

Me thinks 400 and 380 wont put up much of a fight. The war is at 340, if that gets taken out say hello to 266.

I agree with you IF China plays out as expected.

Yes, china in play goes without saying. I just dont see any big deal about breaking 400, that psychological barrier was smashed last time around, and why im leaning towards 340. True double bottom, perhaps.

[knarzo]

Why not wait for more definitive information that the trend has reversed before buying back in?

If there was such "definitive information", wouldn't the smart money have already moved in at that point?  You can wait 2 months till we're back at $600 or whatever, if that's a clear indication to you, but then you've paid a cost for that information (opportunity cost), and already forfeited most of the profit.

I like to buy when people are shitting their pants, or "waiting for definitive information".  Best time imo.  Smallest "supply" of buyers willing to take that risk.  High risk, high reward.  

Cheers

High risk? JPM is closing bankaccounts of hard working boys and girls in the porn industry, EFH Texas filing for bankruptcy and the US trying to freeze Vlads private stash? Sounds like a good timing  

[SheHadMANHands]

Copy over since Rpietila is prob. one of the sharper guys on the forum:

Quick TA update (at $0.460):
- 6H candle color/volume: red candles are taller, conclusion: bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.056, conclusion: easier to move to the upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.365 log units. The trendline is at $1.060 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: fearish, bearish, conclusion: less downside than generally feared
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

ADD: If sentiment is bearish, it indicated that the price will surprise to the upside, and vice versa.

[ShroomsKit]

ok, all you analyst, where  is this going to land this time? lol I really thought we were through the worst of the China fears a few weeks ago..... I haven't been in here since, now with this drop I'm back looking for exspert" opinions. It is also beginning to take its toll on the alt coin markets which is usually where I spend most of my time

There is no such thing as Bitcoin experts.

Edit: trading experts.

[akujin]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy


 

[ShroomsKit]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy


 

 

[wachtwoord]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy

 

 

He will likely still tie the bet (that was never confirmed)

[aminorex]

In most exchanges, trades usually happen at the ends of the spread, when a buyer or a seller moves his order to meet a waiting order on the other side.  However, the last time I looked at the individual trades at OKCoin, there were many small trades that occurred at random prices within the spread.   Perhaps (I haven't checked) these middle-of-spread trades account for the steady background of volume (~10% of total volume) that one sees at OKCoin (and only there).

The explanation I can think of for these middle-of-spread trades is a buyer and a seller (perhaps the same person) agreeing to post matching orders at the same instant at that price.  Such "rendez-vous" trades could be a way to launder bitcoins and/or money in a way that would be difficult for the police to trace, even if they had access to the deposit and withdrawal records of all the exchange's clients (which the exchanges presumably provide).  

Only by analyzing the trade logs one could figure out who ended up transfering money to whom.  Even then, if the trick is played with three or more client accounts (A "loses money" trading with B, who "loses money" trading with C, etc.) it may be impossible to detect intentional money transfers, say from a businessman to a government official.

Sad to see what has happened to your mind, Jorge.  You've jumped the shark again.  That's not how exchanges work.  It's also about 1000x more complicated and risky and public than it needs to be to accomplish the supposed ends of this unworkable scheme.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation