Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[octaft]

But why would anybody offer you 7:1 if you run up to them screaming that your bet is a guaranteed winner? You didn't ask for 7:1, you asked for "significantly better than 1:1." Well, what does that mean? I would call 4:1 significantly better,

I would call 3:2 significantly better than 1:1

Sure, sure, but even at my extreme it would not have been a profitable bet for him, by his own numbers. My point is simply why would he expect someone to go immediately to something like 7:1 if he is touting his prediction as if it were infallible. The most likely reason seems he doesn't want to actually bet, of course.

[Asrael999]

Well, there's certainly plenty of fiat on Huobi now.

yes lets hope they can get it out. Might be tricky without a bank account - and I won't be sending any coins there to get stuck with worthless Huobi Yuan.

[hdbuck]

how about a bet calling a drop back to 350$ in less than 30 days?

[EuroTrash]

[rpietila]

Without any prior introduction, I posted the following. Because no prior info was given, this must be treated as the sole expression of my wish:

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Keywords:
- (implicit) in BTC
- (implicit) long duration at least 3 months (to adequately model "ever")
- trigger condition breaching 435
- someone (anyone can take it!)
- send me PM
- much better than 1:1 odds for me

Windjc's proposal:

In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.

In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.

What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.

I think you will offer an unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.

But let me know.

Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.

Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised?

Since you are too chicken s*** to make a bet, here's one for you.

Bet $50k with of btc
Duration 30 days

If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity.

Keywords:
- in USD
- short duration 30 days
- trigger condition breaching 435 and breaching 500, with both/neither considered a tie (windjc's estimation 90% this will end in a tie)
- aimed for me only, with insult
- public
- 1:1 odds, with charity clause

* *

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it. This windjc turned into a public challenge directed against me, with different terms in every 6 parameters that are important in a bet.

The bet itself seemed +EV for me so I decided to go on with it, but in the end there was not enough mutual agreement. As was perhaps the intention, windjc collected "fame" because I did not took his bet (why? do I also get points every time I propose things to people when it is not in their interest to comply?   ).

In the meanwhile nobody took my bet (the one which i would have unequivocally lost last night). Nobody was even interested. I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

I don't care about the bet.

If everybody took that much space just to state that a particular topic does not interest him, this thread would be 6465 pages long..   oh wait

What have you learned from it?

That scenario thinking and probabilities are very hard to understand for many people, even in threads dedicated to it. Further education is necessary, but any serious and accountable predictions by anyone should be taken here, with a consistent and uniform methodology, and cash prizes (all entry fees go to the pot + my 1,000mBTC bounty and perhaps windjc's also..)

[NotLambchop]

...

Is supernoding still a thing, BTW?

[rpietila]

As I saw it, I'm smoking Romeo y Julieta Petit Churchills, have a 27" Mac screen on mahogany table, solid silver ashtray, same shoes as in the picture, and thinking of the next (III) Supernode meeting in Malla in June. So, it is kind of affirmative, don't you think?

[Ivanhoe]

Why all the hate to Risto suddenly? He contributes a lot more then most of the members here. Yes he made a bad call, so what? He made a lot more good calls then most of you, and he will make them again in the future

[frienemy]

Why all the hate to Risto suddenly? He contributes a lot more then most of the members here. Yes he made a bad call, so what? He made a lot more good calls then most of you, and he will make them again in the future

+1

pro tip: You can disagree with Risto without being an asshole. Try it!

[NotLambchop]

As I saw it, I'm smoking Romeo y Julieta Petit Churchills, have a 27" Mac screen on mahogany table, solid silver ashtray, same shoes as in the picture, and thinking of the next (III) Supernode meeting in Malla in June. So, it is kind of affirmative, don't you think?

Just try to keep out of the nuthouse this time though :-)

[NotLambchop]

Why all the hate to Risto suddenly? He contributes a lot more then most of the members here. Yes he made a bad call, so what? He made a lot more good calls then most of you, and he will make them again in the future

If you mean "$10,000 by tomorrow" type of stuff than yeah, he's contributed plenty.  Also the lels, don't forget teh lels.

I have plenty of empathy for the mentally ill, but stop deifying mania.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

As I saw it, I'm smoking Romeo y Julieta Petit Churchills, have a 27" Mac screen on mahogany table, solid silver ashtray, same shoes as in the picture, and thinking of the next (III) Supernode meeting in Malla in June. So, it is kind of affirmative, don't you think?

You are caught in the imagination, on what an businessman should be like. Trying to act on what you have seen from glamorous magazines and television shows. In a way, you are an actor, trying to act the role of an businessman, by adopting it's stereotypical external attributes. That is why all the talks about cigars and castles and that's why you act like a chick. Guys usually go through this stage until the age of 25-29, the time when they are insecure about their professional abilities. You sure look older on your photographs then 29, so you must be an late bloomer or something.

[wachtwoord]

Okay, could you explain the origin of the red line?

[dreamspark]

blah blah blah so bored of personal attacks on others from people behind a psuedo nickname. Hardly anyone else is a known figure like Risto and although I dont agree with him all the time the attacks from anon people are stupid. Sit there and call him dumb and a bad businessman etc etc but until you put some credentials to your own name its just hot air.

[wachtwoord]

As I saw it, I'm smoking Romeo y Julieta Petit Churchills, have a 27" Mac screen on mahogany table, solid silver ashtray, same shoes as in the picture, and thinking of the next (III) Supernode meeting in Malla in June. So, it is kind of affirmative, don't you think?

Just try to keep out of the nuthouse this time though :-)

It is a secret, but I tell you just this one time: the nuthouse is a place for dissidents, people are taken by the police and thrown there without due process, no chance to appeal. They are force-fed drugs that take months for your system to get rid of. This kind of condition is unpleasant as such, and very unfitting for a person with thousands of bitcoins, some of them belonging to others. Finland has this kind of shameful practice, Estonia does not (at least not towards foreign businessmen that are causing no harm to anyone).

If possible, let's leave this aspect for now. There are other forums for it.

All very good reasons to stay out of it. The hospital is a similar place (the easiest way to get sick is visiting a hospital)

[NotLambchop]

As I saw it, I'm smoking Romeo y Julieta Petit Churchills, have a 27" Mac screen on mahogany table, solid silver ashtray, same shoes as in the picture, and thinking of the next (III) Supernode meeting in Malla in June. So, it is kind of affirmative, don't you think?

Just try to keep out of the nuthouse this time though :-)

It is a secret, but I tell you just this one time: the nuthouse is a place for dissidents...

It's also a place for folks whose delusions of grandeur have gotten the best of them

Enjoy your midget Churchills.

[edwardspitz]

I usually give my colleagues a daily update on the bitcoin situation. Today the guy next to me asked me a about the red candles and looked a bit concerned at me. I replied, that yes things aren't looking super pretty at the moment but that it doesn't matter because today we are discussing castles.

[Erdogan]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

He bought in when bitcoins were at $10, you do not need to be a genius to make a huge profit in that situation. I pretty much suck at trading and still I increased my original investment by x50, how about that?

Furthermore, to give everybody a little perspective: the "castle" (btw: it is a manor, not a castle) is in ruins and it costed less than what a biggish flat would cost in any top capital (New York, London, etc.)

Hear, hear. He was not maybe the absolute, end of the game, forever, most genius around, but he certainly was more of a genius than those who did not buy at 10.

[oda.krell]

Okay, could you explain the origin of the red line?

I hope EuroTrash doesn't mind:

https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=568760.msg6438083