Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

$200k is my lowest peak estimate for 2025.

yep trump gets in and passes some god awful bills for btc and shit coins.

the rugs will be the biglyest ever

I cashed out enough I would get to be a larger coiner.

Or it could do what I think. 90-110 til he get sworn in. then we take off in feb when he passes some good laws for btc.

[d_eddie]

A purposeful rug pull or an automatic sell the news event can't be ruled out folks. We've been there a few times already. It's best to be pee-pared for both uppity and downity, as our local AI-powered bot likes to say.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

A purposeful rug pull or an automatic sell the news event can't be ruled out folks. We've been there a few times already. It's best to be pee-pared for both uppity and downity, as our local AI-powered bot likes to say.

we could also go sideways for another 10 months to build a base around 100k.
When we consolidated at 10k back in the days it took over a year.

I have the feeling 100k could be crossed quite a few times in the near future. It's also quite possible that 100k or less will be visited again in the next bear market, if it were to play out as in the recent cycles.

[WatChe]

Can you imagine the price dropping down to $20k and going quasi-sideways until 2028?

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Just joking, teasing LFC...

$200k is my lowest peak estimate for 2025.

100k$ is finally broken. 200, 300, 400, ... will be broken in same way. 

[SaintFlow]

As a permahodl I am no bear

I am just surprised how little movement MicroStrategies mayor buys have created.
Especially considering how bullish my media feeds have become.

Is he overdoing it? Is he overdoing it with his infinite money glitch? I mean I have no love for the dollar or any other big print item but somewhere there is a real work based economy and it helps to remain on a good understanding with it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

As a permahodl I am no bear

I am just surprised how little movement MicroStrategies mayor buys have created.
Especially considering how bullish my media feeds have become.

Is he overdoing it? Is he overdoing it with his infinite money glitch? I mean I have no love for the dollar or any other big print item but somewhere there is a real work based economy and it helps to remain on a good understanding with it.

taking risk and going new ways is work.

[d_eddie]

As a permahodl I am no bear

I am just surprised how little movement MicroStrategies mayor buys have created.
Especially considering how bullish my media feeds have become.

Is he overdoing it? Is he overdoing it with his infinite money glitch? I mean I have no love for the dollar or any other big print item but somewhere there is a real work based economy and it helps to remain on a good understanding with it.

Contrast with the cautious approach of, say, KULR.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:e5b96f0e8094b:0-kulr-technology-launches-bitcoin-treasury-with-21m-purchase/

They were rewarded by mr. market even during a bitcoin dumplet. As for me, I think Saylor is right - but my opinion doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things.

On the other hand, what if Saylor is just tricking and baiting naysayers into the greatest gamma squeeze ever seen by mankind? Something that would make the GameStop saga look like kid's play.

Interesting times indeed.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

As a permahodl I am no bear

I am just surprised how little movement MicroStrategies mayor buys have created.
Especially considering how bullish my media feeds have become.

Is he overdoing it? Is he overdoing it with his infinite money glitch? I mean I have no love for the dollar or any other big print item but somewhere there is a real work based economy and it helps to remain on a good understanding with it.

Well, i guess he's not buying Spot but OTC or directly from miners?
In the long run, it doesn't matter that much, because buying OTC in masses means thinning out future supply on the spot market.
The movement will take place, but delayed.

[OgNasty]

As a permahodl I am no bear

I am just surprised how little movement MicroStrategies mayor buys have created.
Especially considering how bullish my media feeds have become.

Is he overdoing it? Is he overdoing it with his infinite money glitch? I mean I have no love for the dollar or any other big print item but somewhere there is a real work based economy and it helps to remain on a good understanding with it.

Well, i guess he's not buying Spot but OTC or directly from miners?
In the long run, it doesn't matter that much, because buying OTC in masses means thinning out future supply on the spot market.
The movement will take place, but delayed.

I sort of have an opposite take.  MicroStrategy buying is a major part of the reason we were able to break $100,000 in the first place.  I would say the market is becoming addicted to his money and when he is done tossing it at the all time highs, the market struggles to sustain itself organically.  This could all change at the drop of a hat if game theory kicks off or the US establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but for now I would say we are overvalued for what the demand for Bitcoin is currently, but undervalued for what is headed our way.  That smells like short term pain to me, but we'll see.

[OutOfMemory]

As a permahodl I am no bear

I am just surprised how little movement MicroStrategies mayor buys have created.
Especially considering how bullish my media feeds have become.

Is he overdoing it? Is he overdoing it with his infinite money glitch? I mean I have no love for the dollar or any other big print item but somewhere there is a real work based economy and it helps to remain on a good understanding with it.

Well, i guess he's not buying Spot but OTC or directly from miners?
In the long run, it doesn't matter that much, because buying OTC in masses means thinning out future supply on the spot market.
The movement will take place, but delayed.

I sort of have an opposite take.  MicroStrategy buying is a major part of the reason we were able to break $100,000 in the first place.  I would say the market is becoming addicted to his money and when he is done tossing it at the all time highs, the market struggles to sustain itself organically.  This could all change at the drop of a hat if game theory kicks off or the US establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but for now I would say we are overvalued for what the demand for Bitcoin is currently, but undervalued for what is headed our way.  That smells like short term pain to me, but we'll see.

I'd say that's a rather pessimistic way of looking at things, but some tendencies tell us that pessimistic views are more realistic, more often than optimistic ones.
But as you wrote: We'll see 

[d_eddie]

About recent dumplets (or dumps for ants, as some dude or a football maniac could say).

There were different explanations. The first dumplet was because Powell blah blah we cut less next year blah blah we can't hold bitcoin because blah blah. The second dumplet was because TradingView glitch blah blah showing btc dominance at 0 for a short while blah blah.

To me this smells like whale play all over. I'm reminded that tomorrow we have the last monthly option expiry of the year. I don't have reliable data (and anyone who does would be welcome to post a summary here), but my guess is that calls at 100k or slightly over that might be among the most popular options to expire. Now if I were a whale writing (selling freshly made) options, I sure wouldn't like the corn to be at 100k or more. Suppressing the price with the holiday season low volume is a low hanging no brainer.

Let's see what happens after 4PM or 5PM UTC - or whenever the time of expiry tomorrow.

Just sayin'...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

About recent dumplets (or dumps for ants, as some dude or a football maniac could say).

There were different explanations. The first dumplet was because Powell blah blah we cut less next year blah blah we can't hold bitcoin because blah blah. The second dumplet was because TradingView glitch blah blah showing btc dominance at 0 for a short while blah blah.

To me this smells like whale play all over. I'm reminded that tomorrow we have the last monthly option expiry of the year. I don't have reliable data (and anyone who does would be welcome to post a summary here), but my guess is that calls at 100k or slightly over that might be among the most popular options to expire. Now if I were a whale writing (selling freshly made) options, I sure wouldn't like the corn to be at 100k or more. Suppressing the price with the holiday season low volume is a low hanging no brainer.

Let's see what happens after 4PM or 5PM UTC - or whenever the time of expiry tomorrow.

Just sayin'...

Not sure if it was mentioned before or not but here it is anyway: https://ambcrypto.com/russia-bans-crypto-mining-across-key-regions-as-the-world-debates-bitcoin-reserves/ perhaps another reason for a teeny tiny dump....

[d_eddie]

Yes, but they'd already bumped it saying it's legitimate for commerce and blah blah (to get around SWIFT sanctions involving dollars, actually). I don't see a temporary, geographically limited, ban on mining influencing the price at all. They say they did it because of the energy grid, and it sounds plausible given they're at war after all.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

I think the Poll needs some updating we almost crossing into 2025.
Nov is quite outdated.