Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

I have hard time finding a post from Jan-Feb 2023 when Bitcoin crossed 20k and someone here said that we won't see Bitcoin below 20k again and that prediction is true, at least till now.

I don't think we will see Bitcoin below 90k again. Book mark this, so you can easily find it in 2026   

I doubt that your proclamation has much significance.  Sure you could end up being correct, but so what?

I would place slightly less than 50% odds that we don't go below $90k ever again (spot price on Bitstamp, right?).  I am not even sure if I would be willing to bet my own  50/50 or less than 50/50 feelings.. which that I think that there are greater than 50% odds  that we go below $90k again at some point...

To me, it seems to become bettable when you are giving 100% assurances or something close to high assurances that we are never going to below $90k again.. then that seems like a bit too much certainty, then you should be willing to give high odds on a bet like that, too.  especially since you are so confident, right?  I doubt that you would even give 90% odds on your statement.  which means that I would ONLY have to bet 1/10 the amount  that you would have to bet.. something like that...because you are the one expressing so much confidence on your assertion.

In gambling, it's the house that' the winner not the gambler. Unless you are not the house, you must be ready for loss.

Having said that yes I am confident that we won't see Bitcoin going below 90k and I am saying that with full confidence. On on the other hand if Bitcoin goes below 90k then I will be one of happiest man, since that will give me some space to buy more.  

It's a kind of win-win scenario for me.

[edited out]

philpima1957 has it's own versatility style which is difficult to follow or copy  

You are doing a pretty good job following in aspects of his from time to time dogmatisms.

You got me wrong JJG, I am an easy going guy with simple beliefs  

[Ambatman]

Then Donnie Doofus was inaugurated. 

I would really love to see a Day, Trump isn't mentioned here.




On another note, I'm on 'vacation' in Observing Bitcoin price.

Got hooked by a Series The Day of the Jackal a remake of a 1973 movie about an Assassin.
It's quite a thrill in my book
Notable things was finding out the amount of information that can be gotten in the internet about a Target
Because of Their posts in sharing personal information. Assassination becomes relatively easier.

Don't mind my ranting, you can try it if you into such.
Unnecessary spoiler: He's hired by the Government to assassinate a Man inventing a system that would make finances transparent all over the world.

[WatChe]

~~

The 90k-110k slot has been dead solid in the pocket.

Just stack and hodl more than you spend.

This is a great opportunity for us.

greater opportunities were just a few weeks and months behind us bro

You referring to Jan 2023? when price of Bitcoin was below 20k$. In just two years, price has gone up from 20k to 100k.

May be in Jan 2027, when price of Bitcoin will be over 200k or more. We still saying, greater opportunities were just a few weeks and months behind us.

[Lucius]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I am not frustrated nor does the current situation surprise me in any way - because if you look at the time before January 20, when the big gray crypto messiah was enthroned in his new old position, everything looked so great and promising, but after that we got only a lot of negative things in the global context with US claims on the territory of Panama, Denmark (EU) and at the end of the Gaza Strip where TFamily would build a luxury resort at the expense of 2 million people who need to be displaced.

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine, people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k - and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I am not frustrated nor does the current situation surprise me in any way - because if you look at the time before January 20, when the big gray crypto messiah was enthroned in his new old position, everything looked so great and promising, but after that we got only a lot of negative things in the global context with US claims on the territory of Panama, Denmark (EU) and at the end of the Gaza Strip where TFamily would build a luxury resort at the expense of 2 million people who need to be displaced.

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine, people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k - and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

To me, it seems like the market has burned out and got stuck because of the bullish news failing to reflect in the spot prices. We know the reason, and honestly, it doesn't make much sense to trade at the time. News can't be used to anticipate price action, ETFs, Saylor, soon also Banks are buying like crazy at OTC desks, exchanges are milking long and short liquidity on a regular basis. The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

[Biodom]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I am not frustrated nor does the current situation surprise me in any way - because if you look at the time before January 20, when the big gray crypto messiah was enthroned in his new old position, everything looked so great and promising, but after that we got only a lot of negative things in the global context with US claims on the territory of Panama, Denmark (EU) and at the end of the Gaza Strip where TFamily would build a luxury resort at the expense of 2 million people who need to be displaced.

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine, people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k - and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

To me, it seems like the market has burned out and got stuck because of the bullish news failing to reflect in the spot prices. We know the reason, and honestly, it doesn't make much sense to trade at the time. News can't be used to anticipate price action, ETFs, Saylor, soon also Banks are buying like crazy at OTC desks, exchanges are milking long and short liquidity on a regular basis. The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

Spot on, but what are the causes?
To me, it seems that "crypto' (apart from bitcoin) is dying or at least is in a catatonic state.
This comes back to what it's function, overall?

As I said before on multiple occasions: the second layer should have been developed on bitcoin.
Instead, not much was developed on bitcoin and everything else quickly loses relevance, maybe with one or two exceptions (or, maybe even just one and it is not the VB coin).

Inflation hedge with bitcoin and stablecoins for fast payment tx-those are ONLY two applications with large relevance right now.
DeFI could be a third app, but it is hopelessly fragmented and was banged repeatedly by the gov.
The fact that banks would soon be able to issue tokens horrifies me quite a bit.
IMHO, too much acceptance and too much integration into the "old" system gives the field as a whole a "kiss of death".

To what extent bitcoin could stay above the fray would be determined in the next 6-12 mo, imho.

[fredericktaylor]

🇺🇸 Iowa State Rep. Taylor Collins introduces bill to invest public money into Bitcoin and digital assets.

https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1887568180597395651?t=y7s8mAsCl00TwaVvfyCoeQ&s=19

[Volgastallion]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.

If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.

Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck

BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

[Biodom]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.

If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.

Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck

BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

if DOGE succeeds in drastically reducing gov spending, bitcoin might be affected negatively (short term), it's just math.
However, i doubt that it would be possible-bureaucracy always brings spending back.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.

If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.

Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck

BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

What about? ...

Nope, the truth is that BTC trading price no more reflects its true value.
Nvidia (and what not) may be past similar situations, but instead overvalued (or maybe better: overpriced).
That bananas-apples comparison is meaningless.
As BTC increasingly decouples from the economic situation, it is still undervalued AND underpriced, though the undervalued part improved significantly, while price wasn't following. I mean, c'mon. If i can see this, you can see it too. This or i'm completely stupid.

Sure, we all can "think positive" about what's happening around Bitcoin.
I mean, what would Satoshi say to all this, watching the banks and financial elites grabbing masses of BTC without moving the price (shifting the value) while the spot market's life and liquidity is getting milked out by the same institutions? Do you think he would be positive?
I am not an evangelist, but there definitely is this ethical edge, isn't it?

EDIT: I didn't even touch that usability topic (yet)!
Oh, and where was adoption, outside of El Salvador? We're in the middle of a bullrun, come the fuck on!
Sure, WAGMI, but is that really everything to it? I don't think Bitcoin can live off greed only.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

[Biodom]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

Right now, it "feels" like a bear market..with it's drip drip drip downwards.
Quite shocking, in fact, since that we are declining (or flat) against all expectations.
Isn't it a definition of a bear market when the ostensibly good news cause further declines instead of price increases?

That said, I am predicting nothing further, maybe it is "something" localized in time like a 'bear market" of 2020 that was severe, but lasted 2 mo or less.
Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

Agreed but what about the early 2024 bull ?? Does that count early as well ??

[OgNasty]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

The FTX distributions should make a difference here right? Even if only 10% of that money makes its way into Bitcoin, that’s still over a billion dollars. I think the % could be higher and I also think those people getting their money back could lead them to more future investment or getting friends and family back in the game. That should hold us over until Governments kick accumulation into overdrive. Then if Strategy finds its way into the S&P 500, things could get wild.

[serveria.com]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

Right now, it "feels" like a bear market..with it's drip drip drip downwards.
Quite shocking, in fact, since that we are declining (or flat) against all expectations.
Isn't it a definition of a bear market when the ostensibly good news cause further declines instead of price increases?

That said, I am predicting nothing further, maybe it is "something" localized in time like a 'bear market" of 2020 that was severe, but lasted 2 mo or less.
Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

Weird, I don't see any signs of acbear market to be honest. Just take another looks at the heatmap. Should we start to worry? Perhaps if we'll have two red months in a row or more than 3 red months this year we should start to worry. Otherwise, everything looks normal so far.