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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26918818 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
d_eddie
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February 07, 2025, 02:11:22 AM

My bad JJG, I meant 2027 (edited the OP).

then that certainty level of the claim could make it more bettable - including taking sides and potentially figuring out odds

The bet is set up by negotiating the rates (and therefore the individual ticket amounts) between the two sides. They need not be equal in the general case (40/60 easy to do etc). Winner takes all.
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February 07, 2025, 02:24:12 AM

🚨 LATEST: The SEC has acknowledged an amendment for Nasdaq’s 19b-4 filing to allow in-kind creations and redemptions on iShares Bitcoin ETF.

If approved, this would allow investors to redeem their shares for actual #Bitcoin instead of cash.




News ref

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February 07, 2025, 02:26:53 AM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

My bad JJG, I meant 2027 (edited the OP).
then that certainty level of the claim could make it more bettable - including taking sides and potentially figuring out odds
The bet is set up by negotiating the rates (and therefore the ticket amount) between the two sides - they need not be equal in the general case (40/60 easy to do etc). Winner takes all.

Even if we correct the date to your original intention, I have difficulties finding it sufficiently controversial in order to be bettable, and yeah, maybe someone would be willing to take one side or the other of the bet.

Let me see if I understand the bet.  You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?  How is that different than proposing whether it would be over or under? 

To me, it does not really seem any different than WatChe's original proposal, except for specifying the date to be January 1, 2027 rather than being January 2027.
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February 07, 2025, 02:58:18 AM
Last edit: February 07, 2025, 03:17:24 AM by d_eddie
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

(Edited)

Yes, or Jan 31. In which case (31 as opposed to 1), the bull has to pay a little more. 66/33 maybe? You get my drift. 0.0066 btc vs 0.0033. Winner takes 0.0099.

Let it be clear, I'm not taking either side - and wouldn't. I basically agree that it's too consensual to be bettable. However, for a fair price... odds at 33/66 means 33sats:66sats and I wouldn't, but how about 2:7? Or 2:9?

It's a game. I'm just trying to formulate bets that someone could possibly consider taking. Would I take the bear 1:1? No. 10:1? Possibly. A bit like a sour ass insurance via a conservative put option.  Would I take the bull side for 2 against 11? It's under 1:5! I don't feel like thinking about such things, but it's fun to engineer the bet.

To me, it does not really seem any different than WatChe's original proposal, except for specifying the date to be January 1, 2027 rather than being January 2027.

The explicit provision that reaching 200k and going back down before Jan (31) is still a winning event wasn't stated explicitly. Also, 200k could be a good sanctuary level for the "which first? <90k or uppity?" bet (300k was a bit too far off IMHO).
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February 07, 2025, 04:12:20 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), hisslyness (2), JayJuanGee (1)

[...]

You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?

[...]

A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:

HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.

Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.

Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.
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February 07, 2025, 04:45:16 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Cycle slowdown theorists, which proliferated on the *tube, have a bit of the problem:

If we 'slow down' to just 2x this cycle, but will be on a 70% downturn afterwards (from $137.8K to $41.3K) as projected by a relatively slow decline in this parameter (from 94 to 84% to 77% in the past and, I guess, 70% is expected next time), this would mean that we would NEVER get back to that $137.8K number as long as upward bounces are declining faster in proportion to slowly declining plunges.

Basically, to avoid the negative scenario shown above, something got to give: either upside slow downs would not happen or declines would have to be shallower.

TL;DR: slowdown theories are bs, most likely
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February 07, 2025, 05:01:16 AM


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February 07, 2025, 05:54:25 AM

Bitcoin Dominance 64
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February 07, 2025, 07:40:31 AM

[edited out]
Rumors say this was already happening sometimes in the past between the two of us  Grin

I hope that I am not being too much of a meanie, since I am mostly attempting to go by the contents of your post, and nothing about you personally.

No worries. Stay who (how?) you are. I don't feel offended or put down, nor anything like that.

Quote
[edited out]
I can't speak for Biodom or Lucius, but myself: I am making my mind up to be able adjust to the situation, if needed. Bearish thoughts are shared, so we can just discuss them respectfully. I don't feel like anybody here is in mood for a(nother) Bitcoin-Funeral.
Ima just trying to observe what is going on and like to know some opinions of our little WO-bubble (no offense, a little bit of irony, though).

You can present bearish views. Nothing wrong with that. Some guys might not agree with you, but you make some decent points from time to time, and even Biodom and/or Lucius.. the other "speaking the truth" bear wannabes might have had possibly (perhaps?) made one or two good points once in a while, too (maybe once or twice each?)..  

Since you use the word "respectful," you seem to be suggesting that I might be going a wee bit overboard in my emphases of whatever points or counter-points I have been making in response to your posts?

Not at all. It was more directed to the "3rd person view"-participants of this thread.
Your points are valid. it's just that i can well understand that the price/news is (kind of) worrysome to others.
Based on my Bitcoin experiences from the past, i'd even say that she may most likely be surprising us soon (positively) - but who knows, honestly.

Quote
I don't see any reason to be nice to bear talking-points or to spend a lot of time trying to figure out a nice way to say something that I might disagree with.  Sure sometimes I might end up changing my mind, but I cannot see that I am overly going into personal attacks beyond just making some emphases from time to time.  If I say, "your ideas are dumb or ridiculous or overly pessimistic or you are talking your book" that is not a personal attack even though I might be pointing out some things that might not end up being true, but it would not imply that I am arguing in bad faith merely because I am using some strong language to express my from time to time disagreements.

Yeah, that's maybe one of the big differencies between both of us, i am most always trying to be nice. But this is 100% about my personal feelings. I know, usual (normie) habits are people being "nice" and acting overly careful not to offend anyone are just anxious to come off as a mean persons, trying to avoid conflicts because they want to be liked by everbody, to benefit somehow.
I'm not that type. Sure, it's always heartwarming when one is feeling liked, but i like myself enough to not be dependent on such feelings. I wasn't always like that, but i'm glad i was able to step out of this kind of dependencies. Also, like blaming others for my bad feelings. I am very, very happy (if not blessed) that i was able to let that go.
So even if you would rage at my words, i know there's a way for me to understand your point(s), as long as i don't block my lil selfie from trying to.

Enuff of the emo-talk now.
I consider myself still bullish. The recent selling/rebuying was a successful attempt to get a fractional portion of "moar" Bitcoin, which i rarely pull off, and this time it was so clear in the charts. I still could have put all of the money into corn again, but i needed some of it, also because that bad story about the delayed court trial and following payout. But who knows, if we really get down to $85k, which i don't think will happen, there's more on the corn side for me. Future fiat gains from that trade would be taxable, though, according to the current laws, which may change (just like it did three years ago).

TLDR: It's all good. I'm fine, and you're OK too.
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February 07, 2025, 08:03:55 AM

[...]

You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?

[...]

A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:

HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.

Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.

Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.

I've been in the same category as you but I missed two cycle tops due to my permabullishness and optimism and actual Bitcoin price never reached my price target.  Grin So I'm kinda HOLDer/LFC wannabe guy. Therefore this year I will be selling a fraction of my stash and my sales won't be bitcoin price based they're going to be time based. I will start selling in chunks starting something like late summer. Otherwise, I feel like I'm going to miss the top once again.  Grin

P.S.BTW I'm more than sure that LFC never sold his entire stash. I guess we could be talking about 20-30% of his coins.
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February 07, 2025, 08:20:09 AM

[...]

You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?

[...]

A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:

HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.

Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.

Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.

I've been in the same category as you but I missed two cycle tops due to my permabullishness and optimism and actual Bitcoin price never reached my price target.  Grin So I'm kinda HOLDer/LFC wannabe guy. Therefore this year I will be selling a fraction of my stash and my sales won't be bitcoin price based they're going to be time based. I will start selling in chunks starting something like late summer. Otherwise, I feel like I'm going to miss the top once again.  Grin

P.S.BTW I'm more than sure that LFC never sold his entire stash. I guess we could be talking about 20-30% of his coins.

There was so much good advice in this thread, since two cycle tops ago.
Verdict: Aiming at cycle tops (almost) never works out, but you can't do overly wrong on the way to the top.
Classic StochRSI, RSI, trading volumes, funding rates etc. shoudl give you a rough guide to identify incoming local tops.
Just a healthy mix of long- and shortterm indices, just as clear (or: less foggy) as when identifying cycle bottoms.
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February 07, 2025, 08:51:08 AM




🇺🇸 RFK Jr.: “If the world were on a Bitcoin standard and our money held its value, we would all have the ability to live more abundant lives. Bitcoiners have it right. Fix the money, fix the world.”
from here


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February 07, 2025, 09:07:58 AM


🇺🇸 RFK Jr.: “If the world were on a Bitcoin standard and our money held its value, we would all have the ability to live more abundant lives. Bitcoiners have it right. Fix the money, fix the world.”
from here



Why do i always tend to have the feeling, that politicians only say things like these on purpose?
While the "Bitcoiners have it right" part is certainly true, what makes a fiat-biatch choose such wording?

Would you expect this from a JFKJ-type-of-guy?
Could be a miracle, who knows...  Roll Eyes
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February 07, 2025, 09:13:17 AM




🇺🇸 RFK Jr.: “If the world were on a Bitcoin standard and our money held its value, we would all have the ability to live more abundant lives. Bitcoiners have it right. Fix the money, fix the world.”
from here


I don't believe a word from the mouth of this politicians,I think they're kind of using Bitcoin to build their career and gather followers. I know a true Bitcoiner when I see one.
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