Here, we have no house. Therefore if we were to enter into a bet, we can agree to whatever we believe is reasonable, and yeah, we might not agree that the level of disagreement rises enough to be bettable.
Since Bitcointalk is fairly a decentralized platform where we can communicate without any censorship. So you are right in saying that there is no house here. But keep this in mind that in real life gambling, house is always the winner.
If you are certain, then you should be willing to give 10:1 odds are maybe even greater odds than that, especially if you are certain. I hate to bet on down, but if the odds are great enough, then I would not be able to resist. We would not have to have a large bet... it could be something like 0.0001 on the low end (mine) and 0.001 on the high end, yours or some other amount that we might mutually agree.. One of the problems could be figuring out when the bet ends.. so of course, I would win if the BTC price touches any price below $90k .. such as $89,999 or lower (Bitstamp is ONLY measuring in whole dollars), and you would win by the end of 2026 (or something like that) if the BTC spot price does not touch below $90k. I am pretty sure the bet should resolve before the end of 2026, or maybe I could concede that you won if we reach $333,333 or greater prior to touching below $90k?
I have to wait till end of 2026 to get my money that's a much log wait. Reduce the timeline to one month or something near to that, so we conclude this well in time. Two years wait is quite long my friend.
Another interesting idea. Will the BTC price be over or under $200k in January 2027. The odds are probably less than 50/50 that the BTC price will be above $200k in January 2027, but surely not so strong to be bettable.
On the other hand, the odds are probably quite a bit higher 50% that the bitcoin price will go above $200k at some point between now and January 2027.
in gambling, odds can be deceiving. In case of bitcoin, most predictions are wrong.
There is no way we can ascertain future price range of bitcoin, we can only predict and that can be right or wrong. There is consent among the community that bitcoin price will continue to go up with passage of time. May be by Jan 2027 price of Bitcoin go above 300k.
May be you can join me on my dinner today that has to much carbs. It's ok to have a cheat meal once in a while hahahaha
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