Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

~snip~

people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k

That would be dumb for almost anyone...even someone who had been in bitcoin for a while.  I am not going to suggest that people don't do dumb things, including giving their coins to Michael and Larry.

If you only have 10 BTC and follow the current pattern - sell at $100k, buy as close to $90k as possible and you will profit around $100k every time the cycle repeats - imagine those who do this with thousands or tens of thousands of BTC, easy money, right?

If you have excess coins that you are willing to sell and take a chance, that it fine. If your goal is to have 21 BTC and you only have 10 BTC, then it is probably better to just keep stacking, since selling is not a good way to increase your BTC stash. The best way to increase your BTC stash is to just keep buying - hopefully having an income that comes from other sources besides trying to trade with price moves that might not happen.

Tentatively speaking if the person with 10 BTC had taken 8 years of stacking at about $200 per week to get to his current stash size, it is quite likely that within the next 2 years he would invest another $20k and maybe he could reach 10.2 BTC, and he may well be in a very similar position as the person with 21 BTC today with his 10.2 BTC, merely based on the expected ongoing movement of the 200-WMA to the upside.   We cannot know for sure, but it seems to me to be way better to preserve what you have and to keep staking your $20 per week rather than gambling with your hard earned BTC.

And even in your own situation, Lucius, are you doing better by fucking around with trading rather than just sticking with a more straight-forward and strict DCAing approach?

Just think a person who had been investing $100 per week since your forum registration date in July 2015, would have had invested $50k, yet he would have close to 24 BTC, which surely is not a bad place to be based on the amount invested.

Of course if you had a higher or lower budget, we could adjust it according to your budget, but surely not easy to beat even a strict DCA and/or HODL approach over the past 9.5 years, even with a modest budget.

- and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

How you going to do that when we are in the middle of a bull market?

you are expecting trends to reverse here?  In bat country?
Oh my!!!!!

Are you new here?
~snip~

Do you think Bitcoin is more powerful than central banks that print money whenever they want and whenever they need it? It is very easy to create FUD, especially if you own most of the mainstream media and if most people behave like sheep following their shepherd - who in this case is one of the most powerful people in the world. It means nothing to them that some of us think we are in a bull market.

Bitcoin is likely more powerful than you are making it out to be including various network effects continuing to build and bitcoin was designed for these kinds of scenarios that seem to be currently playing out.

It sounds like you might be trying to trade upon some of your beliefs by failing/refusing to prepare for up and so you are preparing for down?  or are you prepared for either BTC price direction?

I understand that you are suggesting that there might be some value to take some BTC off the table in this price range, but how much are you taking off the table?  How much did you have on the table in the first  place?  If you have been whimpy the whole time and fucking around with trading the last 9.5 years since you have been registered on the forum, then you might not even have much in bitcoin in the first place?  too busy trading and having nothing to show for it.

So then if we are not in a bull market, but instead in a flat or a potentially downward spiral, then is that how you are preparing yourself for the future?

Personally, I think that the infinite money printer go burr can ONLY go so far, and I really doubt that it is capable of suppressing the BTC price as much as you seem to believe that it is able to suppress the BTC price (if that is the current objective of the powers that be).  Throughout bitcoin's history we have heard about governments going against bitcoin, so you seem to be suggesting that the Trump dipshit is playing 5D chess in which he is actually attacking bitcoin while he is making it look like he is not in order that he can rug pull us?  That could be, but I doubt that his hand is as strong as you claim it to be, even if everything that you are saying (or implying) is true.

Hopefully, for your own good, you are prepared for either BTC price direction rather than to be cheering for down that seems less likely than up, and since you are so passionate about down, we might be able to figure out some kind of bet.. what kind of a time-line should we choose?  For 2025 or within the next few months?  What direction would you like to bet down or up or both?  For example, $70k before $120k?  

I personally hate to get into too many specifics in regards to price predictions, even though I have a tentative working theory that the BTC spot price is not likely to go below 25% above the 200-WMA while we are in a bull market, yet the 200-WMA is ONLY $44k, so 25% above it is $55k.. so that is pretty damned low compared with the current price, and that would be expecting as the worst case scenario while we remain in a bull market... sure we could have some conditions that knock us out of a bull market, right?

Personally, I doubt that getting knocked out of a bull market happens so easily, and I doubt that it is valuable use of time to explore such bearish speculation.. but my own holdings (and psychology) is already prepared for either BTC price direction, yet my idea for a bull market (and that we are still in one) is that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, yet at some point I may well concede that we have gone into a bear market, yet I have tended to realize that we are in a bear market 6 or months after the top, so I am not claiming to know when we are in a bear market and my own assumption is that we are in a bull market until we no longer are...which can take a while to figure out..which means, I already admit that I tend to be a delayed indicator in my own willing to concede that we have gone into a bear market when such thing ends up happening.

My own assessment is that we have been in a bull market since December 2022, yet such bull market was not really realized until either mid 2023 or maybe moreso by October 2023... ... and so sure there might have had been some questionings of whether we were still in a bull market since October 2023, but that little whimpy 32% correction (from $74k to $49.5k) between March and August 2024 was merely a correction within an already existing bull market.

So the punchline  might be what are you proposing that might be greater than just your fucking around with trying to trading dee cornz, spreading FUDz, and hoping for down that may or may not end up happening?

Sure the ETFs can start to experience negative flows and Michael Saylor might start losing money and various countries, states and companies might stop talking about their proposed strategic bitcoin reserves...and so yeah, it is possible that some of the uppity price pressures on BTC might end up drying up (even though they currently are not).. and so then we end up going more and more into a correction period that ends up transitioning into a bear market.  

How long is our current correction period going to last a few days, weeks, months or longer?  

We could talk about whether there are any new ATHs in 2025? in the event that you want to proclaim that our BTC price high for this cycle is already in with our January 19/20 price bounce to $109,356.  

What do you got or are you just going to keep throwing out nonsense proclamations without specifics asserting that we may well not really be in a bull market?, which does that mean we are in a bear? or merely a temporary correction within a bull?  

Or you are just throwing out whatever speculation and trying to see what sticks?  If you end up being correct, then you look like a genius, right?  

What are some of the specifics of your various theories?  if you have any?

It is not my intention to have endless discussions with you, considering that you take every statement too seriously and that you want some kind of evidence that I have or do not have a certain number of BTC, as if anyone normal in WO or anywhere else on the forum signs messages proving that they have 1 or 10 BTC.

If my posts bother you, you have the ignore option - I use it for all that I consider to be writing nonsense.

[xhomerx10]

🇨🇿 Czech President signed a law removing the capital gains tax on #Bitcoin after 3+ years of holding.
-snip-
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1887495804224495968?t=M7ORkYO_5_qIfkaaUSRI2w&s=19

The Czech Republic just made hodling a national sport.
-snip-

None of any taxes after three years, plus zero tax below hundred grand is better than what we currently have, thats all! Forcing people to hold for more than three years is damn already bullish. Therefore, anyone in the Czech Republic who chooses to do this will more than likely be in profit or at least close to it, this should encourage more people who do choose take advantage of this new policy to better understand Bitcoin and increase adoption. Afterall, I can sense a solid progress that what the government did.

If I am mistaken, the first country in the EU to pass such a law was Germany, where that period is 1 year, in Croatia it is twice as long and amounts to 2 years - while there was a lot of talk about how Portugal and Slovenia are very friendly when it comes to laws on taxation of cryptocurrencies, but I am not sure if that is still the case.

Yes, you are right. Here is the details of each regions on crypto taxation. Few countries data were not published here but last update was four weeks ago, probably we will be able to see Czech info here soon.

 The graphic is wrong for Canada (7.5% to 16.5% is not correct).  The tax rate on cap gains for "crypto" ranges from 0% to 27.4% of your total gain depending on your total taxable income.  If your only income is from your "crypto" gain (and you aren't considered a day tarder), you would potentially pay 0 tax on up to ~$31400 of a capital gain if you live in the right province.  Worst case scenario [until Jan 1, 2026 when the inclusion rate goes to a diabolical 66.6% (2/3 inclusion rate)] is currently 27.4% on your gains.  Essentially and regardless of which province you call home, 50% of your capital gains are yours and the other 50% are subjected to the same taxation rate as income so you'll be taxed at your top marginal rate.  It's straightforward but not simple.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

🇨🇿 Czech President signed a law removing the capital gains tax on #Bitcoin after 3+ years of holding.
-snip-
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1887495804224495968?t=M7ORkYO_5_qIfkaaUSRI2w&s=19

The Czech Republic just made hodling a national sport.
-snip-

None of any taxes after three years, plus zero tax below hundred grand is better than what we currently have, thats all! Forcing people to hold for more than three years is damn already bullish. Therefore, anyone in the Czech Republic who chooses to do this will more than likely be in profit or at least close to it, this should encourage more people who do choose take advantage of this new policy to better understand Bitcoin and increase adoption. Afterall, I can sense a solid progress that what the government did.

If I am mistaken, the first country in the EU to pass such a law was Germany, where that period is 1 year, in Croatia it is twice as long and amounts to 2 years - while there was a lot of talk about how Portugal and Slovenia are very friendly when it comes to laws on taxation of cryptocurrencies, but I am not sure if that is still the case.

Yes, you are right. Here is the details of each regions on crypto taxation. Few countries data were not published here but last update was four weeks ago, probably we will be able to see Czech info here soon.

 The graphic is wrong for Canada (7.5% to 16.5% is not correct).  The tax rate on cap gains for "crypto" ranges from 0% to 27.4% of your total gain depending on your total taxable income.  If your only income is from your "crypto" gain (and you aren't considered a day tarder), you would potentially pay 0 tax on up to ~$31400 of a capital gain if you live in the right province.  Worst case scenario [until Jan 1, 2026 when the inclusion rate goes to a diabolical 66.6% (2/3 inclusion rate)] is currently 27.4% on your gains.  Essentially and regardless of which province you call home, 50% of your capital gains are yours and the other 50% are subjected to the same taxation rate as income so you'll be taxed at your top marginal rate.  It's straightforward but not simple.

I thought i just read up on CA personal income tax... yeah it is complicated! Federal and Provincial.... but ultimately it seems the same as what we have here in AU.. except there isn't any holding requirements. Automatic 50% discount!.. which is awesome better than what we have here...!

I was wondering where you got the 27.4% from... Found out, that's a make up for 33% Federal and 21.8% Provincial (Newfoundland and Labrador)... 54.8% top marginal rate is nuts!

[xzy887]

THEY NEVER GAVE YOU A WAY TO STORE WEALTH OUTSIDE THEIR GRIP.
BITCOIN CHANGES EVERYTHING.
OWN YOUR KEYS,
OWN YOUR FREEDOM.
THIS IS THE MOMENT.
FIGHT HARDER.
STACK HARDER

https://x.com/Saylorsatsire/status/1888207347023024277?t=IyivriVuuKM-LiUxEY5RCg&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Not to much so far
February starting wrong
When parabolic?

[xhomerx10]

Breaking the buddy with this nice AI jingle... the music it generates isn't bad at all (I did write the lyrics, lol)



(I uploaded it to Arweave, which is a file storage blockchain)

Nice!

OCD trigger: glasses' lens colors are reversed!

 Have I already become slave to the AI; cleaning up after it?

 

[Arcticc]

[edited out]

About usability...... i have a very very special opinion about that, and a lot of people is gonna kill me for what im gonna say, but for me BTC cant be the coin for the day to day transactions. I have a few arguments since his proper tecnology the way was build and the Gresham law.

Sure Gresham's law suggests that you use your bad money before you use your good money, so if you have other money to spend, then you would spend that first.  I doubt that precludes bitcoin from being used in transactions.  We just spend all of our more shitty money first, and if we have been working our whole life and saving in bitcoin, and maybe we are spending other kinds of money, and so when it comes time that we run out of our other money, then we have to spend our bitcoin.  Same thing if we were being paid in bitcoin, then we might save those but then if we are ONLY being paid in bitcoin, then after a while we have no choice but to spend our bitcoin if we want to eat and have shelter.
   

I think this view of gresham's law and bitcoin is interesting. gresham's law says people spend bad money like weaker currencies and keep good money, like precious metals. but bitcoin might change that. bitcoin is deflationary and has a fixed supply, making it a good store of value. people might use fiat or other money for daily spending, but bitcoin could be saved for the long term or as a hedge against inflation. It makes sense to use bitcoin for savings and spend lesser money, especially considering the risks of fiat currencies. I also think bitcoin will grow as a way to pay for things. as more people use it they will get more comfortable using bitcoin for everyday purchases. eventually, bitcoin might become the good money, with people spending more fiat money. If there’s no choice, people will have to use bitcoin for essentials. This idea seems both realistic and promising for bitcoin's future in the economy.

[Biodom]

🇨🇿 Czech President signed a law removing the capital gains tax on #Bitcoin after 3+ years of holding.
-snip-
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1887495804224495968?t=M7ORkYO_5_qIfkaaUSRI2w&s=19

The Czech Republic just made hodling a national sport.
-snip-

None of any taxes after three years, plus zero tax below hundred grand is better than what we currently have, thats all! Forcing people to hold for more than three years is damn already bullish. Therefore, anyone in the Czech Republic who chooses to do this will more than likely be in profit or at least close to it, this should encourage more people who do choose take advantage of this new policy to better understand Bitcoin and increase adoption. Afterall, I can sense a solid progress that what the government did.

If I am mistaken, the first country in the EU to pass such a law was Germany, where that period is 1 year, in Croatia it is twice as long and amounts to 2 years - while there was a lot of talk about how Portugal and Slovenia are very friendly when it comes to laws on taxation of cryptocurrencies, but I am not sure if that is still the case.

Yes, you are right. Here is the details of each regions on crypto taxation. Few countries data were not published here but last update was four weeks ago, probably we will be able to see Czech info here soon.

 The graphic is wrong for Canada (7.5% to 16.5% is not correct).  The tax rate on cap gains for "crypto" ranges from 0% to 27.4% of your total gain depending on your total taxable income.  If your only income is from your "crypto" gain (and you aren't considered a day tarder), you would potentially pay 0 tax on up to ~$31400 of a capital gain if you live in the right province.  Worst case scenario [until Jan 1, 2026 when the inclusion rate goes to a diabolical 66.6% (2/3 inclusion rate)] is currently 27.4% on your gains.  Essentially and regardless of which province you call home, 50% of your capital gains are yours and the other 50% are subjected to the same taxation rate as income so you'll be taxed at your top marginal rate.  It's straightforward but not simple.

US data is also only approximately correct.
For US, if you hodl for less than 12 mo-it would be anywhere from 10% to 37+3.8%=40.8% tax plus state tax (if you are living in a state that has it, but Texas and Florida do not have state taxes).

For longer hodl (>12mo), tax is 0-(20+3.8%) aka 0-23.8%. When you get 0%? When you have no income or lower income and your cap gains+income are less than about 47K (individual) and about 94K for a family. Then, there is a "nice" 94K-583K area with 15% tax and then it goes up to max 20% when it is over 583K. At above $250K for a family and 200K for individual, 3.8% additional NIIT is added, resulting in 23.8% max cap gains (so, NIIT "bites" you much earlier than the 15->20% bracket).
Source:
https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/capital-gains-tax/602224/capital-gains-tax-rates

Conclusion: i would have preferred if we moved to a Germany or Czech Rebublic-like system, but no such luck any time soon, probably.

[xhomerx10]

🇨🇿 Czech President signed a law removing the capital gains tax on #Bitcoin after 3+ years of holding.
-snip-
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1887495804224495968?t=M7ORkYO_5_qIfkaaUSRI2w&s=19

The Czech Republic just made hodling a national sport.
-snip-

None of any taxes after three years, plus zero tax below hundred grand is better than what we currently have, thats all! Forcing people to hold for more than three years is damn already bullish. Therefore, anyone in the Czech Republic who chooses to do this will more than likely be in profit or at least close to it, this should encourage more people who do choose take advantage of this new policy to better understand Bitcoin and increase adoption. Afterall, I can sense a solid progress that what the government did.

If I am mistaken, the first country in the EU to pass such a law was Germany, where that period is 1 year, in Croatia it is twice as long and amounts to 2 years - while there was a lot of talk about how Portugal and Slovenia are very friendly when it comes to laws on taxation of cryptocurrencies, but I am not sure if that is still the case.

Yes, you are right. Here is the details of each regions on crypto taxation. Few countries data were not published here but last update was four weeks ago, probably we will be able to see Czech info here soon.

 The graphic is wrong for Canada (7.5% to 16.5% is not correct).  The tax rate on cap gains for "crypto" ranges from 0% to 27.4% of your total gain depending on your total taxable income.  If your only income is from your "crypto" gain (and you aren't considered a day tarder), you would potentially pay 0 tax on up to ~$31400 of a capital gain if you live in the right province.  Worst case scenario [until Jan 1, 2026 when the inclusion rate goes to a diabolical 66.6% (2/3 inclusion rate)] is currently 27.4% on your gains.  Essentially and regardless of which province you call home, 50% of your capital gains are yours and the other 50% are subjected to the same taxation rate as income so you'll be taxed at your top marginal rate.  It's straightforward but not simple.

I thought i just read up on CA personal income tax... yeah it is complicated! Federal and Provincial.... but ultimately it seems the same as what we have here in AU.. except there isn't any holding requirements. Automatic 50% discount!.. which is awesome better than what we have here...!

I was wondering where you got the 27.4% from... Found out, that's a make up for 33% Federal and 21.8% Provincial (Newfoundland and Labrador)... 54.8% top marginal rate is nuts!

 That's right - Newfoundland and even if they do get a full 2 weeks of summer, it hardly justifies that exorbitant marginal rate.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Not to much so far
February starting wrong
When parabolic?

Sorry the cooler
Is the musky trumpeter
Maybe corn grows up

So far the cooler
Is causing shrinkage of corn
But corn may still grow

Hold hold hold your corn
 Do not faulter hold your corn
I dca corn

I mine and hodl
Beats the musky trumpeter
Waiting till next term

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

Empty mempool.... Starting to feel bad for it!.... Feels like a new kid on the playground without any friends to play with!...

not sure what to make of it.. 40+ millions wallets and only 1000 or so transactions... Is Layer 2 - Lightning Network working?




One thing is for sure... Hash rate will jump 6% higher in 18 hours!

Which is in fact great. Ordinals and other retarded stuff (inscriptions or whatever they're called) are gone finally. It basically means Bitcoin is turning into store of value not some kind of dick pic or fart sound storage. You have to understand one thing: it's not the number of transactions in the mempool that's driving Bitcoin price up.     

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

If you only have 10 BTC and follow the current pattern - sell at $100k, buy as close to $90k as possible and you will profit around $100k every time the cycle repeats - imagine those who do this with thousands or tens of thousands of BTC, easy money, right?

Sounds more like a quick way to lose money!... Not even sure where to start with this one... Slippage/TAX/Fees, not to mention Bitcoin DGAF about patterns!

and yeah OK if you had 10,000BTC ($1B), you really spending your time trying to add a measly 0.1BTC to your stash.

Frequently, these traders are pie in the sky nutjobs, and your response reminded me that his two extremes are unrealistic, yet if we have a guy who already reached his accumulation goal.. let's say 21 BTC, and maybe he has 35 BTC, so maybe he might sell 0.5 BTC or something like that around $100k and then see what happens.. especially since it is extra BTC... If nothing happens, then he has an extra $50k that he can spend, and if the price goes down he ends up buying back and ends up with 0.0555555 more BTC... and I am ONLY saying this in terms of the guy not giving any shits either way, since with my hypothetical the guy has more bitcoin than he needs or wants with 35 BTC, and with  a 0.5 BTC sale, he is merely selling about 1.5% of his stash.

As I mentioned with OOM earlier, I would prefer the guy to be selling on the way up rather than on the way down, so maybe the guy sold on one of the earlier price runs to the upside, and I also prefer selling smaller amounts, but I am not totally opposed to 1.5% sale if we are considering our price run from $70k to $100k-ish.. that is something like 43% up.. so sure, no  problem with that (if we might have presumed he sold another 1.5% at some earlier point, perhaps around $70k.. and yeah, the sales might start to add up.. or maybe he has a rule about every 50% raise, he can sell 1.5% of his stash, and that would be reasonable.   I also still believe that selling BTC at our around $100k is not a very great place to be selling with any expectations to buy back, since that seems to be so much the talking point of so many "smarter than everyone else traders" who have the "sure trade" of selling at $100k, even though I am a bit unclear about their buying back point... perhaps $70k-ish?  I continue to have doubts about that trade working out.

getting ready to buy some corn just a little lower

Source. and elements canva.
If you buy some corn now, it will turn into popcorn after a few days and its size will be several times larger.

is it still considered corn?

Sure why not.
I NEED it to drop to 89 or lower I will load up

You have been in bitcoin for 12 years (or is it 13 years?) and you still don't gots enough?  

Breaking the buddy with this nice AI jingle... the music it generates isn't bad at all (I did write the lyrics, lol)

(I uploaded it to Arweave, which is a file storage blockchain)

You are retarded.  But the jingle still is funny.  

The pool should be updated

I think the first wave of bitcoin high is gonna over soon and then we gonna do see deep correction that I don't like it at all hahah  

Wow you are selling?  That's probably not going to end well.

[edited out]

It is not my intention to have endless discussions with you, considering that you take every statement too seriously

I am not supposed to take you seriously?

and that you want some kind of evidence that I have or do not have a certain number of BTC, as if anyone normal in WO or anywhere else on the forum signs messages proving that they have 1 or 10 BTC.

I never asked you to prove your quantity of BTC.  I merely asserted that your fucking around with trading is likely not giving you as many BTC that you would have had if you would have had stuck to a mostly straight-forward and routine DCA strategy, and your evasiveness (and unnecessary argumentativeness) seems to confirm my assessment of your likely situation.. but you still want to fuck around with trading (and to try to convince others that trading is the best thing since sliced bread) even though you have not able to beat a more straight-forward and regular DCA approach.

Another thing that makes it worse is that you seem to want to entice others to be dumb like you, and to trade their likely hard earned cornz rather than to error on the side of BTC accumulation and/or HODL.

If my posts bother you, you have the ignore option - I use it for all that I consider to be writing nonsense.

Your posts don't bother me. They are entertaining (sometimes - as long as no one takes you seriously, as you seem to now want to assert), and even though sometimes your posts are a bit difficult to figure out, especially if you are acting as if selling BTC at $100k and buying back at $90k (or around $90k) is a sure bet.  

Maybe such a BTC price move from $100k to $90k will happen, and you can proclaim "I told you so," and maybe it won't, but such BTC price move surely is not even close to a sure bet...even if your gambling attempt (and seeming attempt to convince others) does end up happening.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com